Support NeoGAF

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

I thought the launch lineup for Xbone was supposed to be hands down better too. That didn't help.

Certaintly a few circumstances have changed and the image of the Xbox brand was and a little bit still going through stuff. Im not saying 1 game will cause it to outsell it this holiday. Im taking into account everything that has happened and changed with the brand this year.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

I guess we're at the wait for Master Chief Collection part now.

Is it on the XBO chalkboard already?

 

[BigDug13]

Someone said its an old game so it wont sell.

See TLOU remaster.

Did TLOU sell systems? Or did TLOU sell pretty well as a remaster to existing console owners?

Halo MCC will sell great. It will have fantastic sales to current XBO owners. But how many systems will it sell on its own?

 

[Nightengale]

Someone said its an old game so it wont sell.

See TLOU remaster.

I think MCC will easily sell 3 million LTD minimum.

But that doesn't mean it'll push x amount of consoles during that game's launch. That x is a highly volatile variable.

I mean, I have no problem stating that imo, Titanfall sold more XB1s than Infamous did for PS4, but it sold a lot before launch already that during the launch itself, the full effects were muted through strong sales the month before.

 

[bebop242]

Someone said its an old game so it wont sell.

See TLOU remaster.

Yeah, but how many systems did it sell? Not that many.

 

[Mass Effect]

Someone said its an old game so it wont sell.

See TLOU remaster.

Who said that? Well regardless, it will sell quite well no doubt.

Just don't expect any miracles.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Anyway, current sales indicate an ill-omen for a certain type of console, one which has broad demographic appeal and can attract a broad tent of users from the onset. Although again, I don't think we're at that point where that consumer segment is necessarily being actively targeted.

The hardware sales are in line what these two makers with their focus on certain market segments, traditionally sell.

I think that's misrepresenting both Sony and Microsoft, albeit Sony more so; neither exclusively targeted the specific demographics they currently are previously, at the expense of broader appeal.

It is also missing a truism (not just in business) that successful ecosystems contain variety where dying ecosystems are homogenised.

 

[AniHawk]

Well I guess the question is.... why do you automatically assume PS4 will do worse than PS3 in any region (minus Japan)? Especially given their much better start this generation. Seems a little pessimistic

it wasn't an automatic decision. it's the assumption that as large swaths of the traditional game market fall off (handhelds, wii, japan, xbox), it think it's not less likely to keep occurring, but more likely to keep occurring. i think the way that last generation went is something that won't be repeated, and that the industry very clearly hit an apex of sorts across the board.

i made a prediction a few months ago that in the us it would experience growth over the ps3, while dropping in europe. i realize now i should give europe most if not all of that rotw total to at least get the number to 40m. europe is just a complete mystery to me though. i know playstation does very well there, but i'm not as familiar with the market as i am japan and the us. so when i take it into account, it can skew the potential lower. still, i think we're going to be in for a rough ride.

 

[kinoki]

I'm starting to feel bad for MS. They have one game coming out in the coming 12 months that they rely on for sales. Halo 5 launches after that and I wouldn't count out a delay (like every other game this generation). Meanwhile Sony is winning both 3rd party and have one of the most important games releasing at the beginning of next year. If they go into the holidays with a GTA-bundle they're just widening the gap even during the long awaited MCC month.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The PS4 has so far demonstrated that it is pretty front loaded. I'm just playing Devil's advocate here (because I think the PS4 could likely outsell the PS3), but this generation COULD be shorter and we don't know how well the PS4 will fare relative to the PS3 in the coming years. If it follows a Wii or Pre-kinect 360 trajectory it'll cross streams with the PS3, but as I said, I don't think that'll happen.

Even if the gen shorter Sony looks to have a better price plan in place for PS4 so that could be a huge factor in sales.
Next year we could see PS4@300 dollars and that took years for that to happen with PS3.
A year after that it could be even cheaper , PS3 was unable to have well time price drops that the PS1 and PS2 got.
Something i feel the PS4 will have.

 

[Aquamarine]

I always knew you and cream were masochists



Right but then why does it take like a day and a half after the other leaks to get it?

It's like "Get Vita, 1 - 3 hours later get home consoles, 6 - 48 hours later maybe get 3DS"

So all things considered... are the numbers good/bad/fine in your opinion compared to July and the rest of this year?

because it's honestly not interesting so creamsugar doesn't bother


and when it doesn't show up in that pie chart...someone else has to leak it.


and besides, it's lower than last month...where's the fun in a handheld that's in decline?

 

[Nightengale]

Certaintly a few circumstances have changed and the image of the Xbox brand was and a little bit still going through stuff. Im not saying 1 game will cause it to outsell it this holiday. Im taking into account everything that has happened and changed with the brand this year.

What about everything that has happened on the PS4 side of the brand?

Larger install base meaning more friends with PS4 among potential buyers. Better lineup this year than Killzone/Knack. Stronger Q1 2015 which will influence decision making as well, just like how Titanfall influenced early purchase of Xb1 even though it wasn't launch title.

Now, what I mentioned above is 100% subjective. But stuff doesn't exist in a silo, and different people have different views of what they think makes a larger difference than the other.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

I guess the question you have to ask is whether or not most Halo fans already own an XBO.

I'm thinking they already do, most of them anyways.

Someone said its an old game so it wont sell.

See TLOU remaster.

It will sell well... mostly to guys that already own an XBO... most of the die hard XB fans already have the new system.

 

[theprodigy]

because it's honestly not interesting so creamsugar doesn't bother


and when it doesn't show up in that pie chart...someone else has to leak it.


and besides, it's lower than last month...where's the fun in a handheld that's in decline?

<108k confirmed I guess

is it 6 digits at least?

 

[SwiftDeath]

because it's honestly not interesting so creamsugar doesn't bother


and when it doesn't show up in that pie chart...someone else has to leak it.


and besides, it's lower than last month...where's the fun in a handheld that's in decline?

Ah apathy, didn't think about that.

 

[JNA]

It will sell well... mostly to guys that already own an XBO... most of the die hard XB fans already have the new system.

Pretty much. It's only gonna sell well for the people that have an XBO. It's not however gonna move the XBO units. That's just unrealistic.

 

[BigDug13]

Even if the gen shorter Sony looks to have a better price plan in place for PS4 so that could be a huge factor in sales.
Next year we could see PS4@300 dollars and that took years for that to happen with PS3.
A year after that it could be even cheaper , PS3 was unable to have well time price drops that the PS1 and PS2 got.

All this talk of console sales contraction. Is it taking into account the loss of the soccer mom and grandpa market buying the last gen console option that provided them with virtual bowling? That market has moved on. Those buyers are gone from consoles. The loser of that specific demographic is Nintendo this gen. So are the XBO and PS4 sales that poor compared to only PS360 sales?

 

[fedexpeon]

Pretty decent numbers for both consoles for such a slow month.
September should be a huge boost across the board for both consoles as well.
The next 3 months, I will say PS4 will sale 800K, and 700K for X1 combined for those months.
I don't want to overestimate the holiday sales effect, but then again, 2015 early spring lineups are crazy good.
PS4 could hit another 1M if people think 2015 will be worth to buy the console in Nov/Dec for themselves instead of gifts.

I can't for Jan-Apr sales report, 2015 will be huge.

 

[Striek]

Pretty bad sales for everything, yet again, que surprise. Dedicated gaming systems are going the way of the dodo.

XB1 is surprising insofar as it has stabilized and can't really be tarnished with the same brush as the Wii U anymore. Its sales disparity with the PS4 is not significant on a month to month basis in the U.S. Goes to show what acting swiftly and decisively with a slew of marketing and an effective pricecut can do, versus playing the wait and see, hope and pray strategy Nintendo employed.

 

[Ty4on]

Edit: ^^^^^ XB1 didn't stabilize, it had a Madden bundle which sold like 40k.

3DS sales are kinda fun in the PSP comparisons.

Sales have been very constant. So constant I've forgotten what the lowest was. What was the worst month for 3DS?

 

[xxracerxx]

Pretty bad sales for everything, yet again, que surprise. Dedicated gaming systems are going the way of the dodo.

Where are you getting numbers from?

 

[Aquamarine]

<108k confirmed I guess

is it 6 digits at least?

No.

 

[Ty4on]

Lowest ever for 3DS? I can't remember if it even went below 100k once

Edit: It was below 100k in May and January. ~97 in both interestingly.

 

[NateDrake]

Lowest ever for 3DS? I can't remember if it even went below 100k once

I think it did during the first yr.

 

[Aquamarine]

Where are you getting numbers from?

read the thread

 

[theprodigy]

No.

......so are we gonna play limbo again?

it is higher than Wii U's 2014+2013 August total right

Edit: ^^^^^ XB1 didn't stabilize, it had a Madden bundle which sold like 40k.

3DS sales are kinda fun in the PSP comparisons.

Sales have been very constant. So constant I've forgotten what the lowest was. What was the worst month for 3DS?

even without the Madden bundle it only dropped like 10k, and that's naively assuming none of those bundle sales would have been regular sales otherwise

also yeah I forgot the 3DS/PSP comparisons, but that's pretty much the only interesting thing about it

 

[xxracerxx]

read the thread

Ok!

 

[Hubble]

If MS can throw some heavy marketing and advertising for Halo MCC hyping it I think it can sell consoles. If not then it will still do fine but not to its best.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

All this talk of console sales contraction. Is it taking into account the loss of the soccer mom and grandpa market buying the last gen console option that provided them with virtual bowling? That market has moved on. Those buyers are gone from consoles. The loser of that specific demographic is Nintendo this gen. So are the XBO and PS4 sales that poor compared to only PS360 sales?

If your looking at X1 and PS4 compare to PS360 they are doing good if you go by LTD in the same time frame.
Still there are a number of factors at play and it's still to early say how things are going to go to a certain degree.

 

[BigDug13]

If MS can throw some heavy marketing and advertising for Halo MCC hyping it I think it can sell consoles. If not then it will still do fine but not to its best.

How many Halo fans have not already bought an XBO?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think that's misrepresenting both Sony and Microsoft, albeit Sony more so; neither exclusively targeted the specific demographics they currently are previously, at the expense of broader appeal.

It is also missing a truism (not just in business) that successful ecosystems contain variety where dying ecosystems are homogenised.

Regarding your second comment, I'm not sure if you're suggesting that focus strategies aren't viable business strategies?

As for the former, I'm going to presume a divergence of opinion regarding the relative positioning of the PS2, PS3 and PS4 at their onset. While the predecessors don't exclusively target the equivalent "core gamer" segments of their respective periods, neither does the current, and none of them actively targeted or are targeting them. For the predecessors, they certainly did later in life to varying degree of success.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

How many Halo fans have not already bought an XBO?

It's as if they decide to ignore said caveat...

 

[SwiftDeath]

How many Halo fans have not already bought an XBO?

Potentially ~9M if you go by the maximum sales of any single Halo entry

https://www.halowaypoint.com/en-us/games/halo3

Although that's probably a shipped number?

Spoiler

I don't think MCC is going to cause a significant uptick but will sell well itself

 

[geordiemp]

So UI have skip read every 5 pages of the thread, where are the numbers ?

Just the usual talk of console death on here ?

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

The loser of that specific demographic is Nintendo this gen. So are the XBO and PS4 sales that poor compared to only PS360 sales?

I would say the publishers that made money from that rather large market are also losers.
As are the consumers that purchased products funded by that money.

Regarding your second comment, I'm not sure if you're suggesting that focus strategies aren't viable business strategies?

In a 2 horse race, where both horses have the same focus? No, I don't think it is.

 

[terrisus]

because it's honestly not interesting so creamsugar doesn't bother


and when it doesn't show up in that pie chart...someone else has to leak it.


and besides, it's lower than last month...where's the fun in a handheld that's in decline?

<108k confirmed I guess

is it 6 digits at least?

No.

Ouch =(

 

[metalslimer]

I think the 3DS hit its low in July 2011 at around 90k, so it's been hovering near it's worth months ever for a while. It's pretty amazing to see one of their handheld so stagnant.

 

[TrojanBlade]

Why doesn't NPD publish actual hardware/software numbers? Do companies not allow them?

 

[GarciaHotspur]

How many Halo fans have not already bought an XBO?

How many non Halo fans have bought an XBO ?

Joke.

 

[theprodigy]

Welcome to the August 2014 NPD limbo contest 2.0, featuring the Nintendo 3DS!

lol

Spoiler

why is it the Nintendo systems that we have to guess like this

 

[Opiate]

Regarding your second comment, I'm not sure if you're suggesting that focus strategies aren't viable business strategies?

Not directed at me, I know, but a couple responses.

1) Just 5 years ago, this didn't seem to be the fate of consoles. Consoles were the uncontested rulers of the gaming universe, and the expectation would be that they would continue to grow in to new market segments over time. It seems we've all essentially conceded that this isn't possible any longer. That's not just a change of abstract expectations; it also really affects the long term strategy of the software publishers, and it's why they've all had to dramatically scale back the number of console releases.

2) I think focus can be fine, but I don't think the types of consoles Sony and Microsoft build are very well suited for that approach long term. Things like handhelds might possibly be capable of focusing on a particular demographic, because it's easier to keep production costs down. But the PS/Xbox consoles are built with the biggest, most expensive games in existence in mind. No, I do not think that lends itself well to a narrow demographic.

I think the only plausible method for consoles to continue along this path would be for the systems to have increasingly high cost of ownership. I think the better approach would be to try to win the "casual" consumers back, but it's probably too late to do that significantly this generation.

 

[geordiemp]

read the thread

At least give us a range of pages

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Why doesn't NPD publish actual hardware/software numbers? Do companies not allow them?

They do publish them.
To their subscribers, who pay a large fee to see the data.
It's how the NPD group earns a living.

 

[Ty4on]

100? Take five steps back.

Edit: These aren't 3DS sales

 

[DangerMouse]

All this talk of console sales contraction. Is it taking into account the loss of the soccer mom and grandpa market buying the last gen console option that provided them with virtual bowling? That market has moved on. Those buyers are gone from consoles. The loser of that specific demographic is Nintendo this gen. So are the XBO and PS4 sales that poor compared to only PS360 sales?

This.

I think a lot of the calculations are done that way since obviously that's how the financial things look at it when reporting those YoY numbers, but like you, to me the more valuable growth/contraction comparison would be with whatever the PS3+360+ Wii(minus those soccer mom/grandpa hardware/software sales that were never coming back anyway).

PS4 also did those worldwide sales at double the price of last gen's market leading Wii at this point in the cycle, and as people have said most of the real next-gen games don't start picking up next year.

I would say the publishers that made money from that rather large market are also losers.
As are the consumers that purchased products funded by that money.

Therefore mainly Nintendo plus a few publishers but very few of the main publishers then, since a surprisingly high percentage of publishers abandoned that market and quite early, there's a reason everyone talked about the lack of meaningful third party on Wii.

 

[JAYSIMPLE]

I'm starting to feel bad for MS. They have one game coming out in the coming 12 months that they rely on for sales. Halo 5 launches after that and I wouldn't count out a delay (like every other game this generation). Meanwhile Sony is winning both 3rd party and have one of the most important games releasing at the beginning of next year. If they go into the holidays with a GTA-bundle they're just widening the gap even during the long awaited MCC month.

What's the big Sony game for the beginning of the year?

 

[Atram]

-“When lining up sales of PS4 and Xbox One after ten months on the market,” said Callahan. “The combined PS4 and Xbox One hardware sales are greater by over 70 percent compared to their predecessors.”

Wasn´t there the epic fight between the PS3 and the GBA SP in the US the first Year? This comparsion sounds kind of odd

 

[libregkd]

What's the big Sony game for the beginning of the year?

Sony's 2 big games for early 2015 is Bloodborne and The Order 1886. I'm assuming that poster is talking about Bloodborne though.

 

[DangerMouse]

What's the big Sony game for the beginning of the year?

Take your pick really for big games. Bloodborne, The Order 1886, Batman partnership....

But he was probably talking about Bloodborne as the Sony one.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

How many Halo fans have not already bought an XBO?

This guy right here. Though I doubt a port collection would push me over the edge.