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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

Hello all, Abdiel's Best Buy snapshot.

So, I had expected the ps4 to do well, but it did very, very well. The white bundle brought in a ton of new consumers, and even some current owners (like myself, actually) bought the white one as well (I sold my launch unit to a friend who struggles with finances, letting him pay me back over time, haha). We actually cleared our stock in almost over store in our district at least once, and needed replenishment. Crazy stuff. I remain keenly interested to see how other chains reflect this, though I know the game stop near my home did impressive numbers as well.

The XB1 still sold well, and certainly didn't lose momentum from the previous month, but there was a distinct gap in sales. Very distinct. Though I don't think anyone assumed the XB1 would win Destiny month.

Destiny continued to sell pretty Damn well after launch, though some consumers were clearly wavering as they considered. Word of mouth and friends pushing friends to join in the online chaos clearly did wonders.

Wii U is really struggling. The parents buying games for kids group seems largely in the dark now that the MK8 push has faded. Not sure how it will work out.

So yeah. Hope this still ends up on the first page.


Yeah I've heard this from multiple places.

Destiny + White Glacier PS4 = Massive sales.


Do you have any kind of relative indicators of district sales, perhaps? Like maybe how the Destiny + White Glacier PS4 compared to the PS4's launch back in November 2013?


It's a real shame to see MK8 continue to fall behind Mario Kart: Double Dash and fade from retail relevance. I wonder if Nintendo's holiday lineup will really do anything meaningful in terms of YOY growth now that Smash Bros. 3DS is commanding everyone's attention.
 

Rymuth

Member
Hello all, Abdiel's Best Buy snapshot.

So, I had expected the ps4 to do well, but it did very, very well. The white bundle brought in a ton of new consumers, and even some current owners (like myself, actually) bought the white one as well (I sold my launch unit to a friend who struggles with finances, letting him pay me back over time, haha). We actually cleared our stock in almost over store in our district at least once, and needed replenishment. Crazy stuff. I remain keenly interested to see how other chains reflect this, though I know the game stop near my home did impressive numbers as well.

The XB1 still sold well, and certainly didn't lose momentum from the previous month, but there was a distinct gap in sales. Very distinct. Though I don't think anyone assumed the XB1 would win Destiny month.

Destiny continued to sell pretty Damn well after launch, though some consumers were clearly wavering as they considered. Word of mouth and friends pushing friends to join in the online chaos clearly did wonders.

Wii U is really struggling. The parents buying games for kids group seems largely in the dark now that the MK8 push has faded. Not sure how it will work out.

So yeah. Hope this still ends up on the first page.
Woo, thanks Abdiel. Always a pleasure reading your insights.
 
Hello all, Abdiel's Best Buy snapshot.

So, I had expected the ps4 to do well, but it did very, very well. The white bundle brought in a ton of new consumers, and even some current owners (like myself, actually) bought the white one as well (I sold my launch unit to a friend who struggles with finances, letting him pay me back over time, haha). We actually cleared our stock in almost over store in our district at least once, and needed replenishment. Crazy stuff. I remain keenly interested to see how other chains reflect this, though I know the game stop near my home did impressive numbers as well.

The XB1 still sold well, and certainly didn't lose momentum from the previous month, but there was a distinct gap in sales. Very distinct. Though I don't think anyone assumed the XB1 would win Destiny month.

Destiny continued to sell pretty Damn well after launch, though some consumers were clearly wavering as they considered. Word of mouth and friends pushing friends to join in the online chaos clearly did wonders.

Wii U is really struggling. The parents buying games for kids group seems largely in the dark now that the MK8 push has faded. Not sure how it will work out.

So yeah. Hope this still ends up on the first page.

why would you want it on the bottom of the top page and not the top of the 2nd page :p

also 3DS impressions?
 

Blanquito

Member
Thanks as always Abdiel.

Donny, small correction in the OP: do you mean August was 4 weeks instead of "July was 4 weeks"?
 
why would you want it on the bottom of the top page and not the top of the 2nd page :p

also 3DS impressions?

You know how many people complained last time that they had to read the thread to get number leaks? A lot.

I don't know precisely how many GAFfers just read the first page and the most recent page, but it's apparently it exists.
 

Kysen

Member
[PS4] 650k
[XB1] 300k
[3DS] 120k
[WIU] 60k
[360] 70k
[PS3] 20k

PS3 is going to be completely eclipsed by the PS4. X1 will get a boost from the 1 week promotion and FH2. Wiiu wont be going anywhere. Small boost to 360 as some people just cant let go.
 

hawk2025

Member
This month I'm actually somehow more curious about how the game sales will break down.


Did Destiny Xbox One manage to do very respectable numbers close to the PS4 version? (I personally think it might)

Were Forza Horizon 2 and Mordor's day one sales anything of note?


Sales for Mordor were strong enough to catapult the game fairly high on the Amazon charts for even September, but not so for Forza. How close were these to reality? Did Forza not do what (IMO) it should have done for the Xbox One?

Interesting days ahead!
 

Opt1kon_

Member
[PS4] 730k
[XB1] 340k
[3DS] 195k
[WIU] 69k
[360] 79k
[PS3] 45k


this month seems like a special month for both Sony and Microsoft, especially Sony
 

Abdiel

Member
Thanks Abdiel. As always much appreciated!

You really should've gone for a Oreo PS4 setup though :p

Not my photo, but another gaffers

Haha, that's terrible. Hilarious, but terrible. Besides, I would have no use for a second PS4 around the house, and my friend has been pining after one for ages. I thought it worked out, since the white unit looks so good, I'm really glad I snagged it.

Thank you for this insight.

My pleasure. These threads each month are very entertaining/interesting for me, so I like contributing.

Yeah I've heard this from multiple places.

Destiny + White Glacier PS4 = Massive sales.


Do you have any kind of relative indicators of district sales, perhaps? Like maybe how the Destiny + White Glacier PS4 compared to the PS4's launch back in November 2013?


It's a real shame to see MK8 continue to fall behind Mario Kart: Double Dash and fade from retail relevance. I wonder if Nintendo's holiday lineup will really do anything meaningful in terms of YOY growth now that Smash Bros. 3DS is commanding everyone's attention.

Comparing to last year is... Hm. There was a tremendous upswell around the new unit and Destiny as a franchise just was a clincher (even though you only save $10 on the game!). I'll honestly say it was kind of surprising how many people really were excited about the fact that the system was white, and how clean/sleek it looks in that color... even with all that, we were still selling black units too, they didn't really see much of a downswing, just the white had the star power status. Despite the chaos, I don't think it really aligns quite with launch last year, where we had people camped out more than a couple days, due to the hitting shipment capacity, etc. We ran out of stock at stores, definitely, but we also restocked very quickly, and the levels of inventory on those shipments weren't 'launch' shipments, if that makes sense. Very manageable levels, just... very successful.

Does that sales doubled or tripled? :p

Ehhh. Some stores easily tripled their previous months, others doubled... Depended on how well they did the last month, haha. It wasn't a single universal number.

Woo, thanks Abdiel. Always a pleasure reading your insights.

Glad to help!

why would you want it on the bottom of the top page and not the top of the 2nd page :p

also 3DS impressions?

Well, being on the first page, I know when I use the mobile browser on my phone, its easier to open the first page, and then jump to the bottom to choose the navigation options/page number/last page, etc. Being on the first page means people are more likely to stumble on it before going elsewhere. At least, that's my thoughts. You guys all quote me on the following pages anyway, so that helps a lot.

3DS is hard to pin down. It rarely feels consistent. Smash models just came out, and the diehard fans seem to be grabbing those, but there wasn't a lot of push behind it last month. We'll see how it goes with Smash. There have been plenty of preorders for Smash 3DS, but that's all this month, not last... And most of those people already own 3DSes.
 

Kayant

Member
Hmmm I know am going to be way off but here goes.

[360] 69k
[3DS] 125k
[PS3] 45k
[PS4] 420k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 265k
 

Death2494

Member
This month I'm actually somehow more curious about how the game sales will break down.


Did Destiny Xbox One manage to do very respectable numbers close to the PS4 version? (I personally think it might)

Were Forza Horizon 2 and Mordor's day one sales anything of note?


Sales for Mordor were strong enough to catapult the game fairly high on the Amazon charts for even September, but not so for Forza. How close were these to reality? Did Forza not do what (IMO) it should have done for the Xbox One?

Interesting days ahead!

I actually think Destiny performed well on Xbox One. Did it boost sales significantly? No. This is all given that most of the coverage was of the PS4 version.
 
Comparing to last year is... Hm. There was a tremendous upswell around the new unit and Destiny as a franchise just was a clincher (even though you only save $10 on the game!). I'll honestly say it was kind of surprising how many people really were excited about the fact that the system was white, and how clean/sleek it looks in that color... even with all that, we were still selling black units too, they didn't really see much of a downswing, just the white had the star power status. Despite the chaos, I don't think it really aligns quite with launch last year, where we had people camped out more than a couple days, due to the hitting shipment capacity, etc. We ran out of stock at stores, definitely, but we also restocked very quickly, and the levels of inventory on those shipments weren't 'launch' shipments, if that makes sense. Very manageable levels, just... very successful.


Ehhh. Some stores easily tripled their previous months, others doubled... Depended on how well they did the last month, haha. It wasn't a single universal number.

Just the fact that the white PS4 launch with Destiny and the like could even be compared to the original launch at all is pretty staggering to me. Wasnt a price drop, just a bundle and new color.

I had a feeling though. 650k may be a pretty good original number of mine but I almost want to bump it up a little.
 
Comparing to last year is... Hm. There was a tremendous upswell around the new unit and Destiny as a franchise just was a clincher (even though you only save $10 on the game!). I'll honestly say it was kind of surprising how many people really were excited about the fact that the system was white, and how clean/sleek it looks in that color... even with all that, we were still selling black units too, they didn't really see much of a downswing, just the white had the star power status. Despite the chaos, I don't think it really aligns quite with launch last year, where we had people camped out more than a couple days, due to the hitting shipment capacity, etc. We ran out of stock at stores, definitely, but we also restocked very quickly, and the levels of inventory on those shipments weren't 'launch' shipments, if that makes sense. Very manageable levels, just... very successful.

Thank you. It's good to know that we're not talking about a 1138K November or a 863K December magnitude.

I remember a couple of impressions where it seemed like Destiny launch expectations were "unprecedented." Here, knowing it's very successful, but still "manageable" definitely tempers expectations.

Specifically, it makes me shy away from something like a 700K prediction and closer to something more moderate like 500K.


You have the baseline 200K for the traditional PS4s and than an extra 300K for the White PS4 or something like that.
 

stryke

Member
I'm surprised there are a few Ps4>600 predictions. That's better than 360's best September which had Halo 3.
 

Boke1879

Member
Just the fact that the white PS4 launch with Destiny and the like could even be compared to the original launch at all is pretty staggering to me. Wasnt a price drop, just a bundle and new color.

I had a feeling though. 650k may be a pretty good original number of mine but I almost want to bump it up a little.

If it makes 650K I would consider that a HUGE success. I'll say 500k for PS4 this month.
 

Loudninja

Member
I know its not much but:
What a week! Since Destiny launched one week ago, it has officially become the biggest PS4 game launch in North America ever. The game broke records for being the fastest purchased and most played PS4 game during its first week on sale. In fact, last week was our single biggest PS4 hardware sales week since Christmas 2013! That’s a lot of PS4s. Thanks, Guardians!
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2014/09/17/destiny-ps4s-biggest-software-launch-yet/

Its only a single week but I though it was worth mentioning again.
 

Abdiel

Member
Thank you. It's good to know that we're not talking about a 1138K November or a 863K December magnitude.

I remember a couple of impressions where it seemed like Destiny launch expectations were "unprecedented." Here, knowing it's very successful, but still "manageable" definitely tempers expectations.

Specifically, it makes me shy away from something like a 700K prediction and closer to something more moderate like 500K.


You have the baseline 200K for the traditional PS4s and than an extra 300K for the White PS4 or something like that.

It's been really interesting to see some of the dynamics that the PS4 has had in the momentum behind it. There were people buying the White PS4 bundle, and only one or two other games. I asked them about it, and they swore up and down they were PC primary gamers, but they felt like this was the perfect time to jump in. I even heard quite a few mentions of Bloodborne, which had me amused (often from those same people).

A guy at my work bought a black PS4 this month to play Madden on. According to him, he's not allowed to play much cause his gaming habits hurt his relationship with his wife for awhile, but he still likes playing a few times a month on his favorite game.
 

Ty4on

Member
Ehhh. Some stores easily tripled their previous months, others doubled... Depended on how well they did the last month, haha. It wasn't a single universal number.
How did I not see that typo...

Big thanks. I thought about posting "the million dollar question is whether PS4 did great or really great which got mixed into that.

500k for example is "just" last mouth adjusted weekly and doubled which rings alarm bells in my head. My head is clearly not a reliable predictor in these circumstances so thanks for your insights! Black selling (about) as well as before is backed up by Amazon and really interesting.

Edit: Hard nut to crack, but it should be fun if I find some time for it.
 
[PS4] 450k
[XB1] 230k
[3DS] 170k
[WIU] 80k
[360] 100k
[PS3] 40k

PS4 will be the most interesting. It could be anywhere between 350k and 500k, possibly even higher.
 

Miles X

Member
It's something like 41.55M for 360 versus 41.83M for Wii

Really?! I have 41.610 for 360 and 41,615 for Wii but I know some figures I've seen recently dispute this. But then my monthly sales aren't far off what I see posted here because I update monthly. Hmm.
 
It's been really interesting to see some of the dynamics that the PS4 has had in the momentum behind it. There were people buying the White PS4 bundle, and only one or two other games. I asked them about it, and they swore up and down they were PC primary gamers, but they felt like this was the perfect time to jump in. I even heard quite a few mentions of Bloodborne, which had me amused (often from those same people).

A guy at my work bought a black PS4 this month to play Madden on. According to him, he's not allowed to play much cause his gaming habits hurt his relationship with his wife for awhile, but he still likes playing a few times a month on his favorite game.


Looks like this time more of the 1-2 game a year buyers have shifted to the PS4 which is good for Sony but will slightly hurt their attachment rate. This will slightly skew the attachment rate in favor of Xbox this Gen again in US it looks like. Not only due to less consoles sold but also maintaining a higher percentage of gamers that buy more than 3 games a year. Which should be good for MS' PR statements, maybe even still allow them to sneak in some more 3rd party exclusives.
 
Would you mind editing out the image? I decided against it in an edit.

That is a leak ripped straight out of a recent NPD report [June] so in essence claiming it is inaccurate would basically be claiming NPD is inaccurate which gets us nowhere

NPD could've adjusted it I suppose but again, either you're using NPD numbers or you're not and those are NPD numbers
 
These figures seem very off but maybe I'm wrong. Might do a bit more research on when we last got some solid LTD's (maybe Donny or someone has posted something).

Edit - Or maybe NPD adjusted?

If you base your numbers solely off of GAF leaks, please keep in mind that GAF leaks / estimates aren't always perfectly rounded every single month.

There are times where some assumptions may be off by like 5K (maybe even 10K) from the real figure, but because no one said anything about it it's considered to be a "fact."
 

Miles X

Member
Would you mind editing out the image? I decided against it in an edit.

That is a leak ripped straight out of a recent NPD report [June] so in essence claiming it is inaccurate would basically be claiming NPD is inaccurate which gets us nowhere

NPD could've adjusted it I suppose but again, either you're using NPD numbers or you're not and those are NPD numbers

I have no issue admitting my figures are wrong, I do afterall use a lot of the ones used in the prediction threads when we moreorles guess based on Creamsugar estimates.

I guess it'll be a few more months before XB360 overtakes Wii.
 
I have no issue admitting my figures are wrong, I do afterall use a lot of the ones used in the prediction threads when we moreorles guess based on Creamsugar estimates.

I guess it'll be a few more months before XB360 overtakes Wii.

Thanks for editing out the image. Just to be on the safe side.

But yeah I'm sure the 360 will pass the Wii in the US by the end of the year and I'm certain we'll hear MS PR about it so we'll know within a couple days of when it happens I imagine
 

2thepoint

Junior Member
[PS4] 520k
[XB1] 260k
[3DS] 120k
[WIU] 80k
[360] 60k
[PS3] 50k

Expecting the Destiny PS4 bundle and launch of the game to deliver strong results for PS4. Xbox One should also get a good boost.
 
Highest September results ever achieved:


PS2 - 532K (September 2002)

PS3 - 492K (September 2009)

Wii - 687K (September 2008)


So I would be wary of any predictions that approach or exceed 700K.
 

hawk2025

Member
Highest September results ever achieved:


PS2 - 532K (September 2002)

PS3 - 492K (September 2009)

Wii - 687K (September 2008)


So I would be wary of any predictions that approach or exceed 700K.



I was about to say; 600K seems *extremely* optimistic, but 700K is nearing impossible, IMO.
 

ascii42

Member
[360] 70k
[3DS] 140k
[PS3] 55k
[PS4] 512k
[WIU] 78k
[XB1] 254k

Hello all, Abdiel's Best Buy snapshot.

Wii U is really struggling. The parents buying games for kids group seems largely in the dark now that the MK8 push has faded. Not sure how it will work out.
Urgh. Now I don't know if I should put it behind the 360. I just hope it hasn't fallen behind the PS3. That would be quite a drop, so I wouldn't think so, but the PS3's hardware bundles may have given it a little boost. This is a tough month all around. What are normal August -> September increases like?
 
Highest September results ever achieved:


PS2 - 532K (September 2002)

PS3 - 492K (September 2009)

Wii - 687K (September 2008)


So I would be wary of any predictions that approach or exceed 700K.

I don't think it has a chance at beating Wii's high. Wouldn't be surprised if it beat the PS2 and PS3 high though.
 

Blanquito

Member
Just a heads up, looks like Amazon October results are already up (weird). So, if I remember, I'll make a post with an overview of Oct results tomorrow since today is the last day of NPD tracking. That way you can get a small idea of how Oct may affect the data we see from Amazon's Sept results.
 
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