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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

F

fedexpeon

Banned
Didn't Sony or some news site say that last month was as big or bigger than Dec 2013 sales?
If so...

[PS4] 450K
[XB1] 220k

Destiny has surely helped XB1 as well.

Edited: Just one week of December then.
 
S

stryke

Member
fedexpeon said:
Didn't Sony or some news site say that last month was as big or bigger than Dec 2013 sales?
If so...

[PS4] 600K
[XB1] 320k

Destiny has surely helped XB1 as well.
Click to expand...

From what I can remember, they said sales for that week was the biggest since December 2013. Not better than December.
 
H

Hindle

Banned
Chobel said:
1) You have to follow the formatting in the OP, so you should change "[X1]" to "[XB1] and "[Wii u]" to "[WIU]"
2) Do you really expect PS4 and XB1 to be that close?
3) Why do you think 360 will get 90K this month? Seems too high.
Click to expand...

The format is roughly there, and yea, I think in NA, the ten year dominance that MS have had with multiplayer games will keep things pretty close. As for the 360, I think Destiny and Bungie would have boosed sales for the 360. The name is huge there.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Hindle said:
The format is roughly there, and yea, I think in NA, the ten year dominance that MS have had with multiplayer games will keep things pretty close. As for the 360, I think Destiny and Bungie would have boosed sales for the 360. The name is huge there.
Click to expand...

You need to follow the the exact format (other than ordering) if you want your prediction to be counted. I'm sure all of us know what you meant but it's a computer program that's processing the predictions, and because your comment has the wrong format, the program will just ignore it.
 
J

Jimmyfenix

Member
Abdiel said:
Hello all, Abdiel's Best Buy snapshot.

So, I had expected the ps4 to do well, but it did very, very well. The white bundle brought in a ton of new consumers, and even some current owners (like myself, actually) bought the white one as well (I sold my launch unit to a friend who struggles with finances, letting him pay me back over time, haha). We actually cleared our stock in almost over store in our district at least once, and needed replenishment. Crazy stuff. I remain keenly interested to see how other chains reflect this, though I know the game stop near my home did impressive numbers as well.

The XB1 still sold well, and certainly didn't lose momentum from the previous month, but there was a distinct gap in sales. Very distinct. Though I don't think anyone assumed the XB1 would win Destiny month.

Destiny continued to sell pretty Damn well after launch, though some consumers were clearly wavering as they considered. Word of mouth and friends pushing friends to join in the online chaos clearly did wonders.

Wii U is really struggling. The parents buying games for kids group seems largely in the dark now that the MK8 push has faded. Not sure how it will work out.

So yeah. Hope this still ends up on the first page.
Click to expand...

Just seeing this now. Wow.
 
James Sawyer Ford

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
Not giving any official predictions, but I expect PS4 to do 300-400k, and I suspect Xbox One won't do as well, but will still post respectable numbers.

I think the Destiny numbers are going to surprise a lot of folks...I don't think the Xbox One version will be very far behind. I predict PS4 leads the split like 55:45
 
J

Jimmyfenix

Member
James Sawyer Ford said:
Not giving any official predictions, but I expect PS4 to do 300-400k, and I suspect Xbox One won't do as well, but will still post respectable numbers.

I think the Destiny numbers are going to surprise a lot of folks...I don't think the Xbox One version will be very far behind. I predict PS4 leads the split like 55:45
Click to expand...

Since npd does not take account of bundled games I can see a split like 55:45 happening as well. I just want to know how well the glacier console performed!
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Since npd does not take account of bundled games I can see a split like 55:45 happening as well. I just want to know how well the glacier console performed!
Click to expand...

NPD does track bundled game sales as they track every SKU of console hardware separately and can therefore extrapolate bundled sales.

NPD simply chooses not to include bundled sales in the Top 10 Software SKU comparisons. I think it's likely we will get numbers for retail standalone and bundled in the NPD thread with some patience
 
R

Road

Member
Don't forget the Xbox One has the free game deal. I don't know how NPD behaves in this case. Are they counted as 1 in units but $0 in revenue? Are they counted as full price? Are they counted at all? If the last case, then its Destiny numbers in the top 10 will also be lower than the overall copies in the hands of consumers.

Anyway, I'm surprised to see the PS4 Destiny bundle is still widely available online one month later.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Road said:
Don't forget the Xbox One has the free game deal. I don't know how NPD behaves in this case. Are they counted as 1 in units but $0 in revenue? Are they counted as full price? Are they be counted at all? If the last case, then its Destiny numbers in the top 10 will also be lower than the overall copies in the hands of consumers.
Click to expand...

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd assume MS's Free Game Deal would be handled much like a retailer led promotion and count as 1 retail standalone unit at full revenue

Road said:
Anyway, I'm surprised to see the PS4 Destiny bundle is still widely available online one month later.
Click to expand...

I get the feeling that the Destiny White PS4 bundle was always intended to last for several months akin to the Titanfall XB1 bundle although I wouldn't be surprised if Sony had been expecting better reviews etc. for the title
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Is it a retailer promotion?

I don't think NPD would count free games at full revenue, it would artificially inflate the revenue figures?
 
J

Jimmyfenix

Member
SwiftDeath said:
NPD does track bundled game sales as they track every SKU of console hardware separately and can therefore extrapolate bundled sales.

NPD simply chooses not to include bundled sales in the Top 10 Software SKU comparisons. I think it's likely we will get numbers for retail standalone and bundled in the NPD thread with some patience
Click to expand...

Cheers for the info Swift!
 
D

donny2112

Member
Road said:
Don't forget the Xbox One has the free game deal. I don't know how NPD behaves in this case. Are they counted as 1 in units but $0 in revenue?
Click to expand...

Based on past data where we got game revenue where the average was below the MSRP, yes, that seems likely. 1 unit @ $0 cost in the software totals.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Amazon.com, PS4 v.s. One v.s. Wii U, as of October 8th, 2014, 23:20 GMT

Best sellers chart

NBA 2K15
PS4 ($59.96) - 5th
One ($59.96) - 10th

Super Smash Bros. for Wii U
Standard ($59.99) - 7th | Bundle with its sexiness, the GC controller (sold the fuck out) - 21st

Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor
PS4 ($59.99) - 8th | PS4 Digital Code ($59.99) - 127th
One ($59.99) - 27th

PS4 ($399) - 9th

PS4 +Destiny ($449) - 13th

FIFA15
PS4 ($59.96) - 22nd
One ($59.96) - 123rd (PS3 - 40th - and 360 - 45th - higher)

Hyrule Warriors ($59.99) - 24th

GTAV
PS4 ($59.99) - 26th
One ($59.99) - 75th

Xbox One ($399) - 34th

Mario Kart 8 ($48.15) - 35th

Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($59.99) - 39th

The Evil Within
PS4 ($59.96) - 44th
One ($59.96) - 115th

Alien: Isolation
PS4 ($59.95) - 48th
One ($59.95) - 89th

Holy Bayonetta 2 ($59.96) - 51st

The Last of Us: Remastered ($49.99) - 53rd

Madden NFL 15 (Standard Edition)
PS4 ($44.99) - 55th
One ($39.99) - 69th

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Day Zero Edition
PS4 ($59.99) - 56th
One ($59.99) - 57th

Destiny
PS4 ($56.30) - 59th (360 - 25th, at $49.99 - is higher)
One ($59.08) - 61st

Assassin's Creed: Unity
PS4 ($59.96) - 63rd
One ($59.96) - 132nd

Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker ($39.99) - 66th

Forza Horizon 2: WOM Edition ($59.54) - 73rd

DriveClub ($59.96) - 80th

Far Cry 4
PS4 ($59.99) - 88th
One ($59.99) - 274th

PlayStation TV ($99.99) - 95th

Wii U Deluxe Set with NSMBU + NSLU ($300; sold by third party) - 99th

Other October releases

Sunset Overdrive ($59.96) - 130th

One + Sunset Overdrive ($399) - 153rd

Fantasy Life ($39.99) - 188th

Note: This is the hourly chart, the one changing every hour of every day, not the one relative to the whole past week / month / year. While weekly / monthly charts allow us to see how things have been up to now, hourly charts could help us in seeing what could be the incoming sales trends. But Amazon.com charts still need to be filtered and rightfully weigthed, you can't take literally everything they say as the exact truth
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
On the other end of the spectrum, Amazon Yearly Charts now look like this

#07 - MK8
#13 - Destiny PS4
#15 - Destiny XB1
#16 - Smash 3DS
#17 - Titanfall XB1
#22 - Watch Dogs PS4
#27 - TLOU PS4
#28 - Infamous SS
#33 - PS4 Destiny Bundle
#41 - Ttianfall 360
#42 - Metal Gear Solid V: GZ PS4
#46 - XB1 Titanfall Bundle
#47 - XB1 Kinect Bundle
#57 - Destiny 360
#61 - Hyrule Warriors
#72 - DKCTF
#77 - Tomb Raider DE
#79 - MLB The Show 14 PS4
#90 - Watch Dogs XB1


So I would say Smash 3DS sold quite well as did the PS4 Destiny bundle
 
I

IAmRandom31

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
I really don't see how an hourly Amazon chart taken at what I assume is an arbitrary time really provides any insight... :/
Click to expand...

People keep saying this but throughout the year the titles that have been mega popular on Amazon also sold very very well. I can't think of a single game that sold poorly or even mildly when it had been sitting on the Top 20 list for a long time or whatever.

Watch Dogs, Destiny, Titanfall were the biggest games on there and around for the longest periods and you saw what sales did on those. Other games were like Infamous, Killzone, The Last of Us, etc.

Games that had brief moments of fame but overall were never top sellers on the list were games like Plants vs Zombies, Thief, Etc.

I know it is a small window but so far that window has been pretty accurate on what to expect. And the Destiny bundle was in the Top 100 list from the moment it was announced and it never dropped out. The Ps4 has always been in the Top 15 in comparison to the X1 which was always 40-70 or even off the top 100 list entirely.

Destiny bundle will have massive sales. I'm spitballing at around 350k or more. Add to that normal month sales and it being a 5 week month and you could easily see a 600+k figure for the PS4.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
SwiftDeath said:
On the other end of the spectrum, Amazon Yearly Charts now look like this

#07 - MK8
#13 - Destiny PS4
#15 - Destiny XB1
#16 - Smash 3DS
#17 - Titanfall XB1
#22 - Watch Dogs PS4
#27 - TLOU PS4
#28 - Infamous SS
#33 - PS4 Destiny Bundle
#41 - Ttianfall 360
#46 - XB1 Titanfall Bundle
#47 - XB1 Kinect Bundle
#57 - Destiny 360

So I would say Smash 3DS sold quite well as did the PS4 Destiny bundle
Click to expand...

Hyrule Warriors not good enough to make the list :p

(it's #61 lol)
 
R

Rendition

Member
SwiftDeath said:
On the other end of the spectrum, Amazon Yearly Charts now look like this

#07 - MK8
#13 - Destiny PS4
#15 - Destiny XB1
#16 - Smash 3DS
#17 - Titanfall XB1
#22 - Watch Dogs PS4
#27 - TLOU PS4
#28 - Infamous SS
#33 - PS4 Destiny Bundle
#41 - Ttianfall 360
#46 - XB1 Titanfall Bundle
#47 - XB1 Kinect Bundle
#57 - Destiny 360

So I would say Smash 3DS sold quite well as did the PS4 Destiny bundle
Click to expand...

Newb question, but what do those numbers to the left of the game mean. MK8 is 7th best selling game of the year? I'm confused.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Rendition said:
Newb question, but what do those numbers to the left of the game mean. MK8 is 7th best selling game of the year? I'm confused.
Click to expand...

It means that Mario Kart 8, out of all the video-game-related sales made on Amazon.com throughout 2014, is their 7th best selling SKU, according to their internal records.

It doesn't account for sales made before 2014, and it isn't always the most reliable indicator of relative NPD performance because Amazon.com only makes up a small percentage of overall NPD sales.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
stryke said:
It's their rank according to Amazon's sales.

Why would MK8 at #7 be confusing?
Click to expand...

well to be fair MK8>Destiny PS4 is one of the more obvious indicators of "do not rely too much on Amazon when making predictions"

(edit: actually PS4 Destiny bundle>360 Titanfall is a better example, unless you believe the bundle did 500k+ already on its own)

Rendition said:
What's #1 through #6? PSN gift cards?
Click to expand...

yeah, actually (for the top half at least)
#1 - $20 PSN gift card
#2 - $10 PSN gift card
#3 - $50 PSN gift card
#4 - standalone PS4
#5 - Thief Gold (download) (I'm guessing this is here cause it's super cheap?)
#6 - XBL 12 month membership card
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Another indication that Amazon rankings are a bit wonky for determining NPD trends is because they use a slightly different methodology from NPD.


Amazon:

1) One preorder = One sale
2) One cancelled preorder = Negate the sale

1) When the consumer purchases it, and the game has been released = One sale
2) When the consumer returns it, and the game has been released = Negate the sale

1) When the game is sold on Amazon by an individual used game reseller = One sale
2) When the game is sold on Amazon by a Fulfilled by Amazon retailer and not by Amazon.com = One sale


NPD:

1) One preorder = Not recognized as a sale until the preorder is fulfilled
2) One cancelled preorder = Not recognized as a sale until the preorder is fulfilled

1) When the consumer purchases it, and the game has been released = One sale
2) When the consumer returns it, and the game has been released = Negate the sale

1) When the game is sold on Amazon by an individual used game reseller = Not recognized as a sale at all
2) When the game is sold on Amazon by a Fulfilled by Amazon retailer and not by Amazon.com = One sale


So it creates these issues:


If a game is PREORDERED in September, and FULFILLED in October:

1) Amazon would count that sale in September rankings

2) NPD would count that sale in October rankings


If a game is BOUGHT from Amazon by Consumer A, and Consumer A RESELLS the game on Amazon two months later:

1) Amazon would count that sale twice

2) NPD would count that sale only once


If a game is BOUGHT on October 1st, 2014:

1) Amazon would count that sale in October rankings, because the game was sold in October

2) NPD would count that sale in September rankings, because the NPD reporting month is measured by weeks, not by months
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
IAmRandom31 said:
People keep saying this but throughout the year the titles that have been mega popular on Amazon also sold very very well. I can't think of a single game that sold poorly or even mildly when it had been sitting on the Top 20 list for a long time or whatever.
Click to expand...
I can tell you without looking at Amazon in broad strokes what titles will be the highest sellers of the year. I don't have precognition that I'm aware of nor am I an indicator of trends.

There are an abundance of issues with using the monthly chart as highlighted above for anything but broad trends. So I really can't see of what use an hourly chart at an arbitrary time point serves.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Yeah if one really felt the need to use Amazon rankings for comparisons I really don't think comparing software to hardware makes sense considering there are likely different effects at work on both of those. Software versus software and hardware versus hardware will almost assuredly result in more "accurate" views of sales but again Amazon is in no way a perfect indicator of the market at large

theprodigy said:
Hyrule Warriors not good enough to make the list :p

(it's #61 lol)
Click to expand...

Lexxus said:
Because its a WiiU game? :p
Click to expand...

Eh I had gone up to the TF XB1 bundle for comparison to the Destiny PS4 bundle, XB1 kinect bundle was there so I grabbed that too, then saw Destiny 360 and since Destiny was already up, put that one as well.

I've updated it with more relevant SKUs but now it's a mess to look at.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
So in the "Teach me something, GAF" OT thread, I posted an interesting NPD tidbit. I figured that, for more exposure, I'll repost it here in case it amuses anyone.

Aquamarine said:
The worst selling Nintendo GameCube game EVER was Transworld Surf: Next Wave, developed by Angel Studios (now Rockstar San Diego) and published by Atari.

According to NPD, the game only sold 286 copies...IN ITS ENTIRE LIFE.

1IKTzoz.jpg
Click to expand...
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
theprodigy said:
well to be fair MK8>Destiny PS4 is one of the more obvious indicators of "do not rely too much on Amazon when making predictions"

(edit: actually PS4 Destiny bundle>360 Titanfall is a better example, unless you believe the bundle did 500k+ already on its own)



yeah, actually (for the top half at least)
#1 - $20 PSN gift card
#2 - $10 PSN gift card
#3 - $50 PSN gift card
#4 - standalone PS4
#5 - Thief Gold (download) (I'm guessing this is here cause it's super cheap?)
#6 - XBL 12 month membership card
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly when the new Thief came out they made Thief Gold free for a week (or was it 1USD?) as a promotion. Out sold the new one by quite a bit by the looks of it...
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
@Abdiel - How did Hyrule Warriors do at Best Buy? There was a preorder bonus there, so people may have bought it at Best Buy (assuming they wanted the Skyward Sword costumes).
 
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