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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

Sounds fun! Any particular reason?

it'll have better advertising and bigger console exclusive titles this fall combined with some ridiculous sales and a variety of new SKUs.

Just a little bold prediction to make the discussion interesting =P.

I'll eat some crow when I'm (most likely) wrong.
 

Dinjooh

Member
it'll have better advertising and bigger console exclusive titles this fall combined with some ridiculous sales and a variety of new SKUs.

Just a little bold prediction to make the discussion interesting =P.

I'll eat some crow when I'm (most likely) wrong.

iS44P6vlh4nio.png
 
I was talking thus far. That in the first 9 months of 2014 which have already been tracked by NPD, September would somehow be the month that XB1 finally outsells PS4, not Titanfall month with the bundle, not kinectless bundle month, not madden kinectless bundle month but September when PS4 finally gets a bundle. Seems unlikely September would be the month to break the sales streak of the PS4 in the US

I have always believed that October and November would be the best chances MS has at winning a month in NPD. Now I pretty much just think November is their best shot as Sunset Overdrive while it looks great will probably open smaller than I was expecting and Evolve was delayed until 2015 so the XB1 co-marketing won't benefit them thus October doesn't seem too strong a month for XB1 particularly



Yeah I can see why someone might think the gap is going to be smaller than most posters have suggested. Higher than 250k actually sounds a bit unlikely to me as well

I'm more in the 125k - 175k camp myself for the gap this month

Yeah, you have to consider the amazing deals for XO, along with Forza, betas, and Destiny itself which wont sell too shabby on it either. I cant see the 250-350k+ gaps in the thread. I will say if no sales in the next 4 months, are above PS4 it could be trouble for Phil.
 
No chance

If they don't win november that would be so embarrassing for Microsoft.

I can see Oct, Sony doesn't really have anything heavy, and LBP is november. Though smash U is November and that alone will sell 2 million Wii us ok lol couldn't go on.

But seriously, Forza and SO, along with Project spark could possibly give ms November. I think Neutered documents come out this month on vita, ps3, and ps4, but thats a niche game.
 

GamerJM

Banned
So in the "Teach me something, GAF" OT thread, I posted an interesting NPD tidbit. I figured that, for more exposure, I'll repost it here in case it amuses anyone.

A quick EBay search makes this difficult to believe
http://www.ebay.com/itm/TRANSWORLD-...8341?pt=Video_Games_Games&hash=item43d0949955

I actually find this a bit interesting in terms of whether or not the NPD is a reliable source for individual game sales data. Did the game actually sell roughly that many copies from the retailers the NPD tracks? (and it was like, retailer exclusive to some non-tracked retailer or some shit) Or do NPD's results just get really unreliable when games don't sell well?
 
A quick EBay search makes this difficult to believe
http://www.ebay.com/itm/TRANSWORLD-...8341?pt=Video_Games_Games&hash=item43d0949955

I actually find this a bit interesting in terms of whether or not the NPD is a reliable source for individual game sales data. Did the game actually sell roughly that many copies from the retailers the NPD tracks? (and it was like, retailer exclusive to some non-tracked retailer or some shit) Or do NPD's results just get really unreliable when games don't sell well?

What does the fact this game failed relate to NPD being "unreliable"? The game just flatout failed, both in sell-in to retailers and sell-through to consumers.

What about the fact that it has 9 listings on eBay makes it difficult to believe it's the worst selling GameCube game?

It's a cheap listing because NO ONE bought it.

Atari probably produced a several thousand copies (at least!) and the fact that nobody bought it at retailers meant there was a lot of unsold inventory to get rid of. It's a cheap, worthless game that nobody bought.



Here is its full sales history:


TRANSWORLD SURF: NEXT WAVE
ATARI
REL DATE MAR-03
ESRB T
S.GENRE SPORT GAMES
GENRE EXTREME SPORTS


MAR-03: 21
APR-03: 0
MAY-03: 0
JUN-03: 0
JUL-03: 13
AUG-03: 6
SEP-03: 0
OCT-03: 7
NOV-03: 0
DEC-03: 87
JAN-04: 52
FEB-04: 27
MAR-04: 0
APR-04: 0
JUN-04: 14
JUL-04: 0
AUG-04: 0
SEP-04: 0
OCT-04: 0
NOV-04: 12
DEC-04: 22
JAN-05: 0
FEB-05: 8
MAR-05: 0
APR-05: 0
MAY-05: 0
JUN-05: 0
JUL-05: 0
AUG-05: 0
SEP-05: 0
OCT-05: 0
NOV-05: 0
DEC-05: 17

And it sold at a decent price, as well.

MAR-03 ASP: $49.14
APR-03 ASP: $0.00
MAY-03 ASP: $0.00
JUN-03 ASP: $0.00
JUL-03 ASP: $38.46
AUG-03 ASP: $43.50
SEP-03 ASP: $0.00
OCT-03 ASP: $50.71
NOV-03 ASP: $0.00
DEC-03 ASP: $47.82
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
So do folks think Hyrule will do worse or better this month than DKC: TF did in February?

Also, Aqua you changed your avatar again. Was wondering who was posting detailed #s like that o.o.
 

GamerJM

Banned
What does the fact this game failed relate to NPD being "unreliable"? The game just flatout failed, both in sell-in to retailers and sell-through to consumers.

What about the fact that it has 9 listings on eBay makes it difficult to believe it's the worst selling GameCube game?

It's a cheap listing because NO ONE bought it.

Atari probably produced a several thousand copies (at least!) and the fact that nobody bought it at retailers meant there was a lot of unsold inventory to get rid of. It's a cheap, worthless game that nobody bought.



Here is its full sales history:


TRANSWORLD SURF: NEXT WAVE
ATARI
REL DATE MAR-03
ESRB T
S.GENRE SPORT GAMES
GENRE EXTREME SPORTS


MAR-03: 21
APR-03: 0
MAY-03: 0
JUN-03: 0
JUL-03: 13
AUG-03: 6
SEP-03: 0
OCT-03: 7
NOV-03: 0
DEC-03: 87
JAN-04: 52
FEB-04: 27
MAR-04: 0
APR-04: 0
JUN-04: 14
JUL-04: 0
AUG-04: 0
SEP-04: 0
OCT-04: 0
NOV-04: 12
DEC-04: 22
JAN-05: 0
FEB-05: 8
MAR-05: 0
APR-05: 0
MAY-05: 0
JUN-05: 0
JUL-05: 0
AUG-05: 0
SEP-05: 0
OCT-05: 0
NOV-05: 0
DEC-05: 17

And it sold at a decent price, as well.

MAR-03 ASP: $49.14
APR-03 ASP: $0.00
MAY-03 ASP: $0.00
JUN-03 ASP: $0.00
JUL-03 ASP: $38.46
AUG-03 ASP: $43.50
SEP-03 ASP: $0.00
OCT-03 ASP: $50.71
NOV-03 ASP: $0.00
DEC-03 ASP: $47.82

Ah, when I saw that number the concept of shipped vs. sold just completely slipped my mind somehow.

I think that's pretty interesting actually then. Reminds me of how certain retailers began refusing to stock Gamecube versions of multiplat games because of really bad sell-through rates iirc. I wonder if any recent games have had similarly disastrous sell-through rates.
 
So do folks think Hyrule will do worse or better this month than DKC: TF did in February?

Also, Aqua you changed your avatar again. Was wondering who was posting detailed #s like that o.o.

Hyrule Warriors beating DKC:TF's ~120k first month (130k combined with digital) is about as likely as SwiftDeath being #1 in the September NPD thread by posts ( ͝° ͜ʖ͡°)
 
Another challenger appears... :D
It's becoming a staple of prediction threads...

The PS4 had no games and the "failure" of Destiny, despite being the most significant launch of the month that happens to have a PS4 bundle and co-marketing, will propel the XBO to sales parity.

Parity seems like the theme of the week.
 
Better get my predictions in before I forget later. I have zero confidence in most of these though.

[360] 65k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 35k
[PS4] 430k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 300k
 
I haven't got a clue. Sony announced the white PS4 the month before and that led to a slight drop in sales month-on-month, but that's nothing compared to the drop MS had after it announced the price drop!! So does that mean PS4 won't get a huge boost because people aren't interested in a new model? or will get a huge boost because even an announcement of a new model doesn't stop the sales of PS4??
 

aly

Member
They've been gaining a lot of positive word of mouth, advertising like mad, gave away free games with purchase, and have some major exclusives coming up.

That is true. But it's not like Sony's been sitting around doing nothing. That white Destiny bundle is pretty popular, and it was already outselling the Xbox without it. I also wouldn't put too much on exclusives, unless they're like Uncharted or Halo.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Yeah not happening. Do not even know where you get the positive word of mouth from.

The system has been getting a bit more buzz/positive word of mouth with the deals and the games not available on the PS4 (that are already out or are coming out soon). Just going to increase up until January more than likely.

I'm not going to say that the system is going to beat the PS4 this month though. Only possibility I see is November and/or December depending on the deals that are available.
 
I can see Oct, Sony doesn't really have anything heavy, and LBP is november. Though smash U is November and that alone will sell 2 million Wii us ok lol couldn't go on.

But seriously, Forza and SO, along with Project spark could possibly give ms November. I think Neutered documents come out this month on vita, ps3, and ps4, but thats a niche game.

Project Spark? That thing has zero profile. It looks awful in the Quicklook on Giant Bomb and ran horrendously bad on my PC when I tried it this morning. It's being sold with a $40 "starter pack" of dubious value and has no identity or hook like LBP to even get people interested in the game creation aspects.

But seriously, the only chance Xbox One has of outselling PS4 in any month the rest of the year is a stock shortages for Sony.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
But seriously, the only chance Xbox One has of outselling PS4 in any month the rest of the year is a stock shortages for Sony.

We'll see I guess. I think good deals alongside Halo MMC and Call of Duty would greatly help during November and December. Just depends on what their deals are.
 
MS has been trying "deals" all year and they've yet to move the needle.

Remember this?

Cylsw9k.png


Microsoft clearly cares an awful lot about the Holiday season...this holiday season especially, because companies have a lot to prove in the 2nd Holiday.

It will be an interesting battle, for sure. I wouldn't completely count write them off for the remaining two months of the year.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
So? For a system that has been unable to keep pace all year I fail to see how going up against the peak months for PS4 sales will somehow make that more likely.

More people buy consoles during the Christmas season obviously. Therefore good deals will get more attention at that time than they would during months in which people generally don't buy consoles. On top of this, no previous months this year had as many big name games as October & November will have. If MS gets aggressive with good deals, tie things alongside MMC and/or COD then I don't see how that couldn't be thought of as competitive. Those two games alone directly target a huge portion of gamers that are currently still playing on the 360. They are huge, popular series and not new IPs. As I said in my previous post though, I feel like it's going to greatly depend on how agreesive they get with the deals, especially since I'm sure Sony will have a few PS4 bundles too.

Again, I'm not saying that it WILL happen but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility.
 
I really don't get the "It's holiday season" logic for speculating Xbox One could outsell PS4.

Wouldn't it make sense that the console wrecking everything in its path does even better during holiday season?
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I really don't get the "It's holiday season" logic for speculating Xbox One could outsell PS4.

Wouldn't it make sense that the console wrecking everything in its path does even better during holiday season?

It's not just about "Holiday season" though. It's about that + the system's exclusives and bundles + the possible (other) deals that MS will have to compete. COD and Halo MMC will be big November games and like I said in my previous post, they are part of series that are attractive to many who are still playing on last gen (at least in North America; NPD). As aquamarine stated, the 2nd Holiday is important and part of the reason why is because it's a time in which many make the transition to the new gen.

I think things will be close if MS gets aggressive enough. Halo MMC and COD marketing/bundle alone will help improve how the system would have done without those obviously; Just need to add some good deals on top of that to make things more competitive IMO.
 
The COD bundle would help if it wasn't grossly overpriced. Madden had an Xbox One bundle, too. Sold better on PS4. After a year of PS4 outstripping Xbox One sales I'm afraid you're going to discover Xbox is no longer the go to platform for CoD. And you're putting an awful lot of faith in a HD remake.

But the point is PS4 is already the hot item. It has the network effect working in its favor. Sony's marketing this gen has been stellar. They'll be doing huge ad buys, too. They're marketing Destiny, which has sold huge. They're marketing Shadow of Mordor which is the sleeper hit of the fall. They're marketing Far Cry. Sony will do bundles and deals and all that stuff, too.

There's just no credible reason to expect any kind of reversal of fortunes.
 
The COD bundle would help if it wasn't grossly overpriced. Madden had an Xbox One bundle, too. Sold better on PS4. After a year of PS4 outstripping Xbox One sales I'm afraid you're going to discover Xbox is no longer the go to platform for CoD. And you're putting an awful lot of faith in a HD remake.

But the point is PS4 is already the hot item. It has the network effect working in its favor. Sony's marketing this gen has been stellar. They'll be doing huge ad buys, too. They're marketing Destiny, which has sold huge. They're marketing Shadow of Mordor which is the sleeper hit of the fall. They're marketing Far Cry. Sony will do bundles and deals and all that stuff, too.

There's just no credible reason to expect any kind of reversal of fortunes.

I will say, after all the damage done by the 499USD price tag, not having a 399USD SKU for Call of Duty bundle was not a very far sighted decision... they must be hoping the White Halo bundle (was that confirmed?) will pick up the slack.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
The COD bundle would help if it wasn't grossly overpriced.

Depends on what they could tie to it -- that is if they do tie anything to it (Christmas deal). Marketing will help too. The series is still tied to Xbox.

Madden had an Xbox One bundle, too. Sold better on PS4.

Wouldn't really compare Madden to COD. The series isn't as big, and it isn't tied to the Xbox brand nearly as much as COD.

After a year of PS4 outstripping Xbox One sales I'm afraid you're going to discover Xbox is no longer the go to platform for CoD.

Ghosts did do better on the Xbox One even though a good portion of sales came from a period in which the system was $100 more than the PS4 (with the game being available on that console obviously). While I don't think the Xbox One will ever be viewed as the "go to console for COD" in the same way the 360 was, I honestly don't think the PS4 version of AW will greatly outsell the Xbox One version.

And you're putting an awful lot of faith in a HD remake.

I wouldn't say so. The game is a great value (whole bunch of content) and Halo is still a popular series. The game will also benefit from the console's library not being that big yet and hopefully good marketing.

But the point is PS4 is already the hot item. It has the network effect working in its favor. Sony's marketing this gen has been stellar. They'll be doing huge ad buys, too. They're marketing Destiny, which has sold huge. They're marketing Shadow of Mordor which is the sleeper hit of the fall. They're marketing Far Cry. Sony will do bundles and deals and all that stuff, too.

There's just credible reason to expect any kind of reversal of fortunes.

I never said the PS4 isn't a hot item. I said many times that it will continue on doing well. I just think that if MS gets aggressive enough that they could make things pretty close this Xmas season since the system has a solid lineup of games that appeal to many people including Halo MMC, an exclusive collection that's part of a very popular series. We're a few months away and this thread is for September NPD though so I don't want to keep on having a constant back/forth right now; Will save it for December when can make more solid predictions (heh).
 

RexNovis

Banned
So? For a system that has been unable to keep pace all year I fail to see how going up against the peak months for PS4 sales will somehow make that more likely.

I really don't get the "It's holiday season" logic for speculating Xbox One could outsell PS4.

Wouldn't it make sense that the console wrecking everything in its path does even better during holiday season?


Anybody claiming that the XB1 has no chance winning NPD in November and December is either lying to themselves or being disingenuous. Regardless of how you might feel about it people love Halo and they love CoD and there are a lot of 360 gamers who love one or the other that are going to be upgrading this holiday season so it is certainly feasible if MS is desperate enough to pull out all the stops with bundles and deals.

This is the big push they've been building to all damn year it's now or never for them. It's put up or shut up time for XB1 and I have feeling they'll do anything they can to remain relevant.

Is it guaranteed? Hell no! But it is sure as hell feasible. So let's wait and see what happens. Should be quite the show.
 

Majmun

Member
What's stopping Sony from coming with great holiday deals as well? Are holiday deals MS exclusive?

I don't understand the people who talk as if only MS are going to benefit from the holiday boost.
 
What's stopping Sony from coming with great holiday deals as well? Are holiday deals MS exclusive?

I don't understand the people who talk as if only MS are going to benefit from the holiday boost.

I think that is the missing ingredient in these November/December discussions; Sony has the momentum and an almost 1 million lead in NA, so if they at least match MS then I think they will win. But right now only SCEE seems to be giving a crap about bundling and deals and getting the message out. SCEA needs to start showing some of its hand, or the assumption is that they won't do anything and just leave it to retailers. If not, MS' chances improve dramaticly just by virtue of exposure and improved western consumer perspective.
 

Abdiel

Member
Anybody claiming that the XB1 has no chance winning NPD in November and December is either lying to themselves or being disingenuous. Regardless of how you might feel about it people love Halo and they love CoD and there are a lot of 360 gamers who love one or the other that are going to be upgrading this holiday season so it is certainly feasible if MS is desperate enough to pull out all the stops with bundles and deals.

This is the big push they've been building to all damn year it's now or never for them. It's put up or shut up time for XB1 and I have feeling they'll do anything they can to remain relevant.

Is it guaranteed? Hell no! But it is sure as hell feasible. So let's wait and see what happens. Should be quite the show.

I've been keeping an eye on preorders for several games to be released in those big months, looking at trends and listening to customer discussions. We don't have many preorders for the COD XB1 bundle, and the customers I've heard mention it are generally saying it is overpriced, just for a 'slightly' (their words) bigger hard drive. We have a surprisingly similar amount of preorders for the new CoD standalone for both PS4/XB1, though we do still have a lead for PS4 across my district.

Also, the MCC has a lot of preorders, it's going to be a great seller, but I've stated this before... from all the discussion I've had with customers, these are coming from people that already own the system, they've bought it at launch, or picked it up around the Titanfall hype, grabbed it on one of the big sales. It's been a very very small percentage of people hyped about the MCC that said they'll be picking up the system when that game drops. Which honestly doesn't surprise me, because the Halo fanbase by and large knew what system they'd need for the next generation of Halo. That's been a talking point since announcement.

These are just my observations, from my direct retail analysis and preorder data - The games trouncing preorder numbers for any and all exclusives are the 3rd Party multiplats, and in those, the PS4 has not lagged behind the XB1 on any thus far. I haven't seen any trends to reflect the momentum changing drastically enough to propel the XB1 beyond the PS4 for those months.

It's not that I don't think it is possible, anything can happen. It just doesn't really seem very likely.
 
What happened to steve :(

I am concerned we have not had a comment like flying off the shelves or selling like hot cakes recently. My banter will only contain pre season comments I am afraid.

Thanks for the input abdiel !
 

RexNovis

Banned
I've been keeping an eye on preorders for several games to be released in those big months, looking at trends and listening to customer discussions. We don't have many preorders for the COD XB1 bundle, and the customers I've heard mention it are generally saying it is overpriced, just for a 'slightly' (their words) bigger hard drive. We have a surprisingly similar amount of preorders for the new CoD standalone for both PS4/XB1, though we do still have a lead for PS4 across my district.

Also, the MCC has a lot of preorders, it's going to be a great seller, but I've stated this before... from all the discussion I've had with customers, these are coming from people that already own the system, they've bought it at launch, or picked it up around the Titanfall hype, grabbed it on one of the big sales. It's been a very very small percentage of people hyped about the MCC that said they'll be picking up the system when that game drops. Which honestly doesn't surprise me, because the Halo fanbase by and large knew what system they'd need for the next generation of Halo. That's been a talking point since announcement.

These are just my observations, from my direct retail analysis and preorder data - The games trouncing preorder numbers for any and all exclusives are the 3rd Party multiplats, and in those, the PS4 has not lagged behind the XB1 on any thus far. I haven't seen any trends to reflect the momentum changing drastically enough to propel the XB1 beyond the PS4 for those months.

It's not that I don't think it is possible, anything can happen. It just doesn't really seem very likely.

That certainly paints a discouraging picture for MS. Like I said I don't believe its likely but it is certainly possible. I just don't think people should be dismissing it as completely impossible. It all boils down to just how desperate MS really is. I have a feeling they are gonna go nuts with the discounts and impromptu bundles (pick an additional game for free etc) in order to try to gain some ground. I suspect that you're likely right about the CoD bundle. It was an exceedingly dumb idea to price it above the best selling SKU if it was intended to regain some market share. Halo: MCC is the wildcard here. If demand for that doesn't entice current 360 owners into upgrading to XB1 during the holidays then pretty much nothing will. Especially of the rumors of a bundled console deal are true. MS would be straight up moronic not to do it. But it's certainly possible that's still not enough to overcome the current sales trends. Only time will tell but, either way, it should be interesting to watch it unfold in the coming months.

Thanks for the insight Abdiel! It's always appreciated. Looking forward to watching the fireworks in the coming months.
 
They've been gaining a lot of positive word of mouth, advertising like mad, gave away free games with purchase, and have some major exclusives coming up.
That stuff never worked before! ;)

On a slightly related note, I heard a radio ad for the Xbone yesterday. The entire ad talked about NFL fantasy football. Games were not mentioned once. Might make sense given the medium, but I don't see anyone rushing out to buy a $400 device to keep up with fantasy football.
 
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