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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
theprodigy
Member
I know that, I'm explaining the reasoning (also we've reached the point where the Wii U's baseline can't really fall much further)
donny pls the image is broken
clearly Nintendo needs to make a game starring Rosalina to save the Wii U /s
Welfare
Member
I have no idea what that is supposed to be, but let me explain. They added something.
Yeah, MS is playing to the base so much with MCC that I find it amazing that somebody could think of it as a system seller. Xbox IS Halo, for crying out loud. You get one, you pretty much get the other.
And even more importantly, the mention of "only on this console" in an advertisement is not probably going to matter much. When people see an ad for a game and hear the console mentioned at the end, they don't pay too much attention to whether it's an exclusive or not. On the other hand, after Destiny, MS has an edge here. Assassin's Creed is bigger than Far Cry and Call of Duty is bigger than anything. GTA V might do something, but it's a remake of a year old game.
PS4 is going to trounce Xbox in September sales, and they may go neck-in-neck on October. November? I don't know. It could be huge for Xbox. And whoever wins November will take December too.
I'm the biggest Playstation fanboy around, and even I am quite positive that Xbone has passed the 5M mark. They just don't shout it from the rooftops because they are so far behind Sony at the moment.
Maybe is Amazon good indicator or not. But PS4 Destiny bundle and PS4 alone are still in top 20 :
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-10/videogames
Link?
theprodigy
Member
I would almost be willing to bet $5 it does actually lmao (haven't checked)
edit: wait FIFA 15 1) comes out 2 days early in NA vs Europe and 2) comes out in the UK one day later than the rest of Europe?
did not know that
Aquamarine
Member
What? I didn't know Entertainment Weekly did any kind of video game ANYTHING.
I really want to know their methodology. I hope it doesn't start with a V and end with a ZZZZ though.
SwiftDeath
Member
I was looking to see if anything from EW was online about videogame sales etc. but they don't seem too interested in them.
Although did find an article about the top-selling games of 2011
http://popwatch.ew.com/2011/12/16/best-of-2011-top-selling-video-games/
Thought it was interesting because it used Amazon rankings which I have never seen before. Still better than Chartz but don't NPD give Top 10 software SKUs for the year anyways? Why not use those?
Jimmyfenix
Member
Huh Entertainment weekly eh.
I think the only chance Microsoft has at winning a month in 2014 is the Halo:MCC month. If they decide that they must absolutely win a month this year for whatever reason, then you will see price drops and/or bundles galore. Think last month's XB1 Madden bundle + extra game for $400, but this time with MCC, extra controller, 12 months of XBL Gold and gift card.
December? I don't believe Microsoft can win that month unless they drop XB1 price to $250 while Sony raises theirs to $500 or so.
postcyberpunk
Banned
Jimmyfenix
Member
Aqua's favorite website.
Aquamarine
Member
postcyberpunk
Banned
You have a gift, my friend.
You see, NPD? That's what happens when you don't release numbers at all: people who aren't that much aware of gaming industry believing in the first source of numbers available...and since you provide public numbers just when all the planets are alined, except for official PRs from companies themselves, the only other source is...that one. 'Cause that's what a major tracker for a major industry should aim for, isn't it? Being not immediatly recognisable / found useful, and being screwed by the site which can post sales of games that haven't been released yet (it happened in the past, I'm sure it'll happen in the future, you know it'll happen again) is surely in your best interest!
Either you forgot the k at the end of each, or the industry is doomed.
El-Pistolero
Member
SwiftDeath
Member
It seems a bit close-minded to write off the possibility for the rest of the year entirely. I'm not sure how likely an outcome it is but it's certainly not impossible
Dragonborn
Member
I personally just don't see a collection of remastered games pushing it ahead. Yes, it's great value, but we've seen remaster before and they've never pushed hardware sales. I don't get why people think Halo would be the exception. If they had an X1 + CoD $399 bundle then maybe I could see it (but even then, CoD took a big hit with ghosts). I feel people are overestimating the MCC's system selling potential and it does feel like March and June all over the place.
If we remember, leading up to TF, there was a constant stream of "what does Sony have to counter TF", "Sony will get trounced", etc. But even with the most hyped up game in recent memory thrown in for free along with a multitude of price cut and special promotions, it got easily beat.
Then, the same thing happened in June with the X1 getting Kinect removed and yet again they got easily beat. I think November will follow this exact pattern and the PS4 will get an easy victory. I'm not saying impossible, but just highly unlikely (in my eyes) that MS wins a single month this year. Hell, I don't think they'll win a month until a $100 price cut or maybe Halo 5 launch month.
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
It seems nothing can stop the PS4 momentum (and they're not really putting much effort into it), but November is the next big month for X1.
Halo, COD and maybe one or two more big titles that are marketed by MS (I forget which ones) will "maybe" push it to #1, but the question is: by how much?
As the months go by, I'm finding this scenario harder and harder to believe, but it might still happen.
SwiftDeath
Member
I have never considered MCC to be some great hardware selling force. I'm sure it will have some effect but it will likely be a drop in the pond compared to something like the uptick from COD. And even then singular titles rarely cause some grandiose effect. The XB1 will benefit from all the 3rd party games releasing [as will the PS4 of course] and then will benefit however much from the COD marketing deal etc.
And more to the point even though I've already stated that I don't necessarily consider MS winning a month in 2014 in the US the most likely outcome [I don't], if MS was to win a month it would almost assuredly be due to offering compelling bundles and promotions more than anything else. Single games do not significantly alter baselines however they can potentially bump up months and combined with compelling enough deals relative to the competition I could at least see some possibility of MS claiming a month.
Furthermore I have always been and will always be of the mindset that lowering the price of entry is far more effective a strategy than simply offering promotions of similar value. Anyone potentially interested in buying an XB1 will know of its pricepoint and bundles will be seen in relation to that.
Personally I'm of the mind that if MS offers some truly compelling promotions for the XB1 in November relative to what Sony offers with the PS4 they will have a legitimate shot at winning the month.
Of course to me it still seems like the PS4 has the general mindshare behind it still and the mainstream has effectively been convinced it's the console to get so we'll see if that seems to change.
DangerMouse
Member
And even harder if PS4 does a GTA V bundle like they are in Europe. I could see them announcing it sometime this month now that they've given the Destiny bundle some breathing room.
Dragonborn
Member
I just can't wrap my head around what kind of promotions they could pull. They've already tried everything under the sun for the last few months, cutting the price, throwing in free games, etc. It'll have to be one mad, mad promotion to actually work. Like, X1 + CoD + Halo for $350 mad.
SwiftDeath
Member
Sure I could see the level of promotions required potentially being quite high but most moves I've seen from Microsoft so far on the value-added front seems to be somewhat conservative while as you suggested still trying to add sometimes obscene value. It's odd but with how quickly some of the promotions expire, it's as if MS is super keen on trying to "win" certain weeks even, not just months. That Madden bundle for example basically existed for like 2 weeks if that. I'd be curious if MS might try to run like a month long well advertised deal/promotion in November and what its effects would be. And then there's things like the split 50,000 Xbox points promotion which is pretty clearly only going to be seen by the core or less casual consumers. Perhaps MS will remain to be relatively conservative again this holiday season and it will be an easy sweep for PS4 but I don't know.
Again though I don't really think MS winning November or December is the most likely outcome.
Maybe not impossible, but you have to admit with each passing month it gets more and more improbable.
And I love how every scenario presented that has the XB1 winning a month depends on Sony twitting their thumbs and doing nothing for the PS4. No promotions, no marketing. Maybe in that situation MS could win a month, but so far this gen Sony has been anything but idle...
Don't see why a "wow" response is needed. I mean, they have absolutely no chance at all? You personally know what deals they are going to have this Xmas season? Are we going to use months in which a lot of people generally don't buy systems to fully determine how the system will do during the period in which many people buy systems ON TOP of that period being alongside the release of many of the most popular game franchises?
I think most people (including me) who are saying that it's simply possible (i.e: not guaranteed) still feel that the PS4 has a better chance of taking those two months as of right now. For me personally though (as I said before), I think it will be more possible for it to happen if MS creates good deals and put them alongside their bundles. I feel that would definitely increase the possibility of it happening since there's just so many big name games coming to the system these next two months.
Every scenario? Missed my post then? I said many times that I'm sure Sony will have deals for the PS4 too during the last two months of the year.
__________________
A lot of previous remasters didn't come out during the early part of the gen they were released in. While I don't think people will be buying the system solely for MCC, I'm positive that many people who will get an XB1 during November or December will be getting the game. The game is going to greatly benefit from there not being that many games on the system it's on.
Said it a couple of times before; it's funny since Halo MCC is technically a guaranteed "system seller" if we base all other "systems sellers" on how the game sells alongside whether or not there's an increase in console sales -- at least for games that aren't bundled.
It's pretty much guaranteed that there will be an increase in XB1 sales for November and I'm sure MCC will do well in sales. Since the game isn't going to be bundled in North America, I really can't think of any other way to really tell how much the game pushes consoles.
I can't see things being like March in which the weekly sales of the XB1 were lower than they were in February even with the launch of Titanfall. As I said before, it's pretty guaranteed that November is going to have more console sales than October.
Said before why I wouldn't use March to fully determine how November/December will be. Titanfall is a new IP, the games coming out in Nov./Dec. are from far more popular series, and more people are looking to buy a console during those two months in comparison to the beginning months of a year.
June is an even worse month to use IMO -- no big games, and usually the worst month out of the year for console sales. On top of this, there are people who are waiting until the Christmas season to get that SKU (and didn't get it during the very first month it released).
Just a lot of different things in play for the last two months of the year in comaprison to any other month this year IMO.
SwiftDeath
Member
What are you talking about?
I fully expect Sony to sweeten the pot as it were this holiday season thus any such promotion by MS that sees them better off would of course have to offer higher value relative to Sony's offerings.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not sure I follow...
Saying sales will increase in November on a weekly average basis is like predicting Amanda Bynes will have a meltdown.
Using that as the basis for inferring that the MCC is a "system seller" doesn't really make sense. The term is thrown around far too liberally.
How else do we determine what non-bundled games are system sellers though? I mean, if we are going to cut out games that release in November and say that they are not "true system sellers" then that pretty much makes the majority of games that get called system sellers not true system sellers -- the majority of the biggest games come out during the biggest console selling months of the year.
___________________
Heh, PS2 was far more dominant in America than any of the current consoles right now, plus the Xbox brand wasn't as popular as it is right now. Wouldn't really say it compares well.
shinra-bansho
Member
You seem to have missed the point of my post, which isn't to definitively claim MCC is or isn't a "system seller" a term that varies in meaning so much that it lacks real meaning.
The point was that your line of reasoning is faulty. You can't use something that's expected to happen regardless, correlate it to an event and then claim causation.
Then what are the various meanings of the term to you then? You didn't really say, which is probably why I didn't get the true point of your post and/or respond the way you had intended.
My post is simply based on how many others determine what a "system seller" is. Like I said before, if my line of thinking is wrong then what can we truly call system sellers? Pretty much every big name, top selling game comes out in November which is always one of the highest months for console sales. If we cut out the top selling games that release during that period then we would be down to very few AAA titles.
Not sure I fully get what you mean though; Are you also saying it's too soon to say that Halo MCC will sell really well?
shinra-bansho
Member
I think it's an overused term, an arbitrary term, and often used in the sense of a killer app that significantly drives hardware, but without any real baseline delineation of what that significant improvement entails.
How many systems does a piece of software need to sell to be a "system seller"? If it sells a single hardware unit is it a system seller? A thousand units? A hundred thousand? Does it need to sell hardware in a singular burst? Does it need to do so over a protracted period of time? Is it based on increased hardware sales at all? Is it based instead on other metrics like software attach rate? Does the increase need to occur concurrent to release - and if so why?
Also, I don't really see how having explained it a second time you still seem to not understand what I'm saying. Your line of reasoning entails that if hardware sales increase in any given monthly transition and a particular title is released, then that effect can be ascribed to the given title. And that given some indeterminate number of systems were sold as a result under that flawed line of reasoning, the title is therefore a "system seller." And because it's a system seller it must be what caused any hardware increase.
It's both circular and conflating causation and correlation.
You mention yourself numerous notable software titles release in November, seasonal factors like holiday shopping occur. Numerous factors can correlate with increased hardware sales. Some could be causal to any increase in hardware, or they could have nothing to do with the increase. You cannot therefore ascribe a causal relationship between whatever increased hardware sales occur in November specifically to a singular event, the release of a single piece of software. And then from that determine it's status as a "guaranteed system seller".