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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Jimmyfenix
Member
Did pach just forget the destiny bundle?
Graphics Horse
Member
Bracing for when someone inevitably makes a thread on Pachter's numbers once some sites start regurgitating this.
FalsettoVibe
Member
Jimmyfenix
Member
How many times has Pach been right on his estimates?
IAmRandom31
Banned
There is 0% chance the PS4 sold 200k lol.
Sounds like he forgot about the Destiny bundle. That alone likely sold over 200k
Sounds like he forgot about the Destiny bundle. That alone likely sold over 200k
Jimmyfenix
Member
He listed every single Xbox bundle though which is weird that he forgot the Destiny launch and the game release.
IAmRandom31
Banned
Sony themselves said the destiny launch was the biggest sales since Christmas.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
just a correction. they said the destiny launch week was bigger than the best week in December. September weeks 2-5 could've been way lower than December 2013 weeks 2-4 etc( I don't remember how many weeks were in December)
This is truly pathetic.
My banana could probably come up with a more accurate prediction.
Yeah this doesn't make any sense. 250K for PS4 seems impossible. Destiny launch and a 5 week month. I don't get how a one week promotion would put XB1 ahead for the month.
If this is anywhere near true, which I know it's not, Destiny reviews must of messed up September really bad for Sony. But like I said in my last post even with a sales drop off sales shouldn't be under 300K. That's nuts.
theprodigy
Member
no they did not, it's just the biggest week in 2014
LSD?
LMAO, it would have to be LSD to suggest Xbox One outselling PS4 Destiny-launch month.
Dead Prince
Banned
Welp. it's been 2 weeks and it's almost upon us. It's do or die for Destiny.
Hahahahaha!!!! What the hell is he thinking?!? Seriously? Come on man I thought you were getting paid for market research/insight doesn't that imply a slight grasp on reality? Like the sort grasp that would indicate a one week promotion might not be enough to offset a highly anticipated bundle release let alone a 5th tracked week of sales making your numbers look like a logical fallacy.
Pachter if the XB1 gets trounced this month you have officially lost any and all credibility when it comes to market analysis. What a joke.
SwiftDeath
Member
So yeah, I'm not really convinced Pachter puts much thought into his predictions. Like while I don't think that outcome is at all possible, it's really his reasoning that just seems silly. I mean the Destiny effect and the bundle effect for PS4 is going to be all of 13k? Sure ok whereas a one week buy a XB1 get a free game promo is going to add 120k [24k a week]?
I predict the same number for the PS4. The black PS4...
I was about to lower my XB1 prediction and managed to forgot about the free game promotion so I'll have to rethink my rethought XB1 numbers.
Edit:
Biggest week. Dec was 860k, but with the supply constraints sales one week could be anything. The average week would only be 170k though...
I imagine him responding to his clients post NPD: "But did you see how GAF responded?"
While it's anecdotal. We've had people confirm in this thread that their retail chains in their region saw no drop off of the black PS4 model and that the white model did VERY VERY well.
Again anecdotal but I can believe it. I just don't see what would make the XB1 sell more than the PS4 last month
JaguarCROW
Member
[PS4] 610k
[XB1] 314k
[3DS] 168k
[WIU] 77k
[360] 72k
[PS3] 38k
[XB1] 314k
[3DS] 168k
[WIU] 77k
[360] 72k
[PS3] 38k
We haven't seen that from our sources though. It lost places on Amazon, but not much and all of the XB Live codes still ranked below it and Abdiel said this:
Edit: Beaten. That's a much more subtle way of saying it and I hope I didn't reveal too much.
Thanks for pointing it out. I didn't see my typo there.
Welfare
Member
Why would the One be lower in a 5 week month compared to a 4 week month?
Aquamarine
Member
Pachter was pretty reasonable last month, with a 175K PS4 estimate, a 150K XBO estimate, and a 65K Wii U estimate.
All of these were close to the real thing. It's weird seeing him making some crazy predictions when he has been doing decently as of late.
All of these were close to the real thing. It's weird seeing him making some crazy predictions when he has been doing decently as of late.
I don't feel like one week will make such a difference. Sure, Destiny and some other games came out, but I feel like it's not been a good month for the Xbox One.
If I'm wrong, that's just how it is and I'm okay with that. It's a guessing game after all.
Aquamarine
Member
I don't think so...he takes a lot of time discussing Destiny (as he should, considering it's the most important retail release of September 2014 by far).
I think he just genuinely believes it won't have all that much of an effect nationwide for some reason. A 250K PS4 prediction is very reasonable if you think the net effect from the bundle will be relatively negligible, or if you believe sales of the white PS4 Destiny bundles displaced typical black PS4 sales instead of attracting customers on top of the reliable sell-through base.
Dragonborn
Member
[PS4] 399K
[XB1] 249K
[3DS] 101K
[WIU] 60K
[360] 62K
[PS3] 35K
[XB1] 249K
[3DS] 101K
[WIU] 60K
[360] 62K
[PS3] 35K
Aquamarine
Member
Done.
I'm half-way between the "OMG PS4 SET SALES RECORDS" camp and the "PS4 did meh" Pachter-esque camp with a 408K prediction for PS4.
So there's a real chance Pachter didn't go insane and might be right?
I want this to happen just for the overreaction from GAF.