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[Bgamer90]

How has November compared to October historically?

Depends on the console as well as the year of the gen itself.

Overall, consoles usually see at least a little more than double the amount of sales in November (in comparison to October). I say at least because there are times in which sales have tripled or quadrupled for a console in November; The Xbox 360 in November 2011 comes to my mind in terms of the latter.

 

[StevieP]

Uh, other than MS due to Windows. Being realistic, Linux is still not a viable alternative.

Windows, while being a Microsoft product, is still conducive to an open environment for both developers and consumers. And an open market place is the only way you're going to avoid blatantly anti consumer practices such as charging you to use the Internet connection you already pay for. There's a reason why games for Windows/xb live was thoroughly rejected and no longer exists, despite Microsoft owning the platform it released on.

 

[Ty4on]

How has November compared to October historically?

360 did similar numbers in November and December in its later years. Nintendo consoles have usually (from what I've seen) done much better in December, but still quite a big bump in sales in November.

 

[BradleyLove]

Windows, while being a Microsoft product, is still conducive to an open environment for both developers and consumers. And an open market place is the only way you're going to avoid blatantly anti consumer practices such as charging you to use the Internet connection you already pay for. There's a reason why games for Windows/xb live was thoroughly rejected and no longer exists, despite Microsoft owning the platform it released on.

First stop with the charging to use your internet shit. Do I like Sony\MS putting mp behind a paywall? No. But they're still providing a service and as such entitled to charge for such a service. Yeah, P2P blah blah, but there's still other aspects to the service that are directly provided by MS/Sony. So if you want to be taken seriously, don't include bollocks in your post.

Secondly, there's no guarantees MS will keep Windows as it is. They have a long history of anti-consumer practices on the Windows platform and there's nothing stopping them doing an Xbone on Windows (what's that? No DX12 on W7 or 8? How "open"!).

How quickly the W8 debacle was forgotten. It appears PC gamers also have short memories.

The only way PC will be truly open is when Linux derivatives gain much better support. Until then, you might not be in a walled garden, but running Windows just means you're in a walled city instead and still at MS's mercy.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Depends on the console as well as the year of the gen itself.

Overall, consoles usually see at least a little more than double the amount of sales in November (in comparison to October). I say at least because there are times in which sales have tripled or quadrupled for a console in November; The Xbox 360 in November 2011 comes to my mind in terms of the latter.

I think just over triple October is a good base line for predictions for the X1. PS4 will be closer to double.


I think the Xbox will do about 700k
The PS4 will do about 630k

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Depends on the console as well as the year of the gen itself.

Overall, consoles usually see at least a little more than double the amount of sales in November (in comparison to October). I say at least because there are times in which sales have tripled or quadrupled for a console in November; The Xbox 360 in November 2011 comes to my mind in terms of the latter.

Right. This is why almost quintuple sales in November compared to Oct is unlikely. Well assuming the One did around 170k only in Oct, which seems reasonable to me.

 

[StevieP]

First stop with the charging to use your internet shit. Do I like SonyMS putting mp behind a paywall? No. But they're still providing a service and as such entitled to charge for such a service. Yeah, P2P blah blah, but there's still other aspects to the service that are directly provided by MS/Sony. So if you want to be taken seriously, don't include bollocks in your post.

Secondly, there's no guarantees MS will keep Windows as it is. They have a long history of anti-consumer practices on the Windows platform and there's nothing stopping them doing an Xbone on Windows (what's that? No DX12 on W7 or 8? How "open"!).

How quickly the W8 debacle was forgotten. It appears PC gamers also have short memories.

The only way PC will be truly open is when Linux derivatives gain much better support. Until then, you might not be in a walled garden, but running Windows just means you're in a walled city instead and still at MS's mercy.

I'm sorry what's bollocks about it? I get the same thing but better and for free on the open platform. There's a reason for it. It's not bs, it's a fact.

The reason things that suck don't take off on pc is because of the openness, no matter which examples you try to cite. You don't have the same luxury on a closed platform. If Microsoft decides to convert windows into the awful reality of a closed garden console, the community at large will either find a way around it or will change platforms en masse. That's the beauty of an open platform with a massive community. In the mean time, feel free to justify paying a second time for your internet connection. Its as anti consumer as anything else on a closed platform, IMO

 

[Bgamer90]

I think just over triple October is a good base line for predictions for the X1. PS4 will be closer to double.


I think the Xbox will do about 700k
The PS4 will do about 630k

Yeah, I think your predictions are pretty realistic.

 

[rokkerkory]

I am going to predict neck and neck sales for PS4 and X1 in Nov!

around 670k to 700k for both!

 

[KillerMan91]

I think just over triple October is a good base line for predictions for the X1. PS4 will be closer to double.


I think the Xbox will do about 700k
The PS4 will do about 630k

630k would be pretty disastrous sales for a leading console during november. Even PS3 that was distand third place console in US peaked around 1 million during its best november (PS4 has sold so far this year more than PS3 ever did). A million really should be lowest bar for PS4 sales in november. Even those would be pretty disappointing sales considering its status as market leader.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

630k would be pretty disastrous sales for a leading console during november. Even PS3 that was distand third place console in US peaked around 1 million during its best november (PS4 has sold so far this year more than PS3 ever did). A million really should be lowest bar for PS4 sales in november. Even those would be pretty disappointing sales considering its status as market leader.

I think this November is not going to be as big as people expect overall. The PS4 has been selling huge all year. Both consoles are still selling to the early adopter markets and there isnt as much potential year one sales to have as second and third years. Its not a big jump to feel that November isnt going to be as big for the PS4 as it is for the Xbox.

I could be wrong, but im not seeing a massive jump happening. Certainly not a million.

Edit: I agree that December should see a jump to around 900k-1 million for the PS4 with the Xbox not too far behind at 850k-900k.

 

[Bgamer90]

630k would be pretty disastrous sales for a leading console during november. Even PS3 that was distand third place console in US peaked around 1 million during its best november (PS4 has sold so far this year more than PS3 ever did). A million really should be lowest bar for PS4 sales in november. Even those would be pretty disappointing sales considering its status as market leader.

PS3 had a "one million sales November" when the generation was established (first one was in 2010 if I remember correctly -- after the slim rebranding). This generation is still early so I don't think one million for November is realistic this year. The PS4 getting around there next month (December) would be though IMO; December sales are usually higher than November.

 

[AniHawk]

PS3 had a "one million sales November" when the generation was established (first one was in 2010 if I remember correctly -- after the slim rebranding). This generation is still early so I don't think one million for November is realistic this year. The PS4 getting around there next month (December) would be though IMO; December sales are usually higher than November.

in the past, december was a lot bigger than november. in recent years, it's evened out, with black friday becoming more like black friday week. a lot of sales are done in that short span of time.

 

[Bgamer90]

in the past, december was a lot bigger than november. in recent years, it's evened out, with black friday becoming more like black friday week. a lot of sales are done in that short span of time.

Very true. December is still usually higher but you are right in that it has been evening out more.

 

[Mooreberg]

dude, Wii is less than 20 million ahead of both PS3 and 360, and that gap is still shrinking

That is why I said "while it is their main focus." SNES ended up more than fifteen million units ahead of Genesis, but Sega started focusing on Saturn in 1994. Wii has not been Nintendo's primary focus for over two years now.

 

[Mory Dunz]

That is why I said "while it is their main focus." SNES ended up more than fifteen million units ahead of Genesis, but Sega started focusing on Saturn in 1994. Wii has not been Nintendo's primary focus for over two years now.

More like 3-4

 

[pharmboy044]

So according to Aqua, there now is a 1.1 million difference between the PS4 and XB1. Can we get an approximation of this months numbers from this?

 

[KillerMan91]

I think this November is not going to be as big as people expect overall. The PS4 has been selling huge all year. Both consoles are still selling to the early adopter markets and there isnt as much potential year one sales to have as second and third years. Its not a big jump to feel that November isnt going to be as big for the PS4 as it is for the Xbox.

I could be wrong, but im not seeing a massive jump happening. Certainly not a million.

Edit: I agree that December should see a jump to around 900k-1 million for the PS4 with the Xbox not too far behind at 850k-900k.

PS3 had a "one million sales November" when the generation was established (first one was in 2010 if I remember correctly -- after the slim rebranding). This generation is still early so I don't think one million for November is realistic this year. The PS4 getting around there next month (December) would be though IMO; December sales are usually higher than November.

I just think that something like 600k is very very low bar when in last gen even third place console sold more than 600k at least three times during november. Yes, those happened after generation had established but still we are comparing leading system to distand third place system. As far as I know PS4 has sold so far this year more than PS3 ever did so why would that change in november? PS4 is market leader and it should behave like market leader (like it has for whole year this year). Of course this is just my opinion but I think I have pretty solid grounds for it when you look at the past novembers. At least for the sake of deticated videogame market I really hope it did at least a million. I can't even remember last time that there wasn't a single system over 1 million in november (and this is with november getting bigger and bigger in terms of total holiday season sales).

 

[Ty4on]

So according to Aqua, there now is a 1.1 million difference between the PS4 and XB1. Can we get an approximation of this months numbers from this?

Accuracy is +/-50k so like she said we should just wait. I'm pretty sure the numbers we have are more accurate than that.

 

[Welfare]

So according to Aqua, there now is a 1.1 million difference between the PS4 and XB1. Can we get an approximation of this months numbers from this?

The gap in September was 997k if I remember. So PS4 is at least 100k more than the One.

 

[3rdamention]

I thought this deserved to be shared here. Xbox One to sell 4 to 5 million units in November and December combined? Nice smart discussion about this in the 10 million shipped thread...

Greenberg again. Remember pre-season?

 

[Majmun]

I am going to predict neck and neck sales for PS4 and X1 in Nov!

around 670k to 700k for both!

I'm expecting the same. With the X1 being the #1 console


I don't think MS will ever lead in NA when it comes to LTD numbers though. Ps4's lead with 1.1mln consoles is just too massive.

 

[Ty4on]

I thought this deserved to be shared here. Xbox One to sell 4 to 5 million units in November and December combined? Nice smart discussion about this in the 10 million shipped thread...

XB1 has only sold ~1844k so far this year. The 360 sold 3.4m in Nov+Dec 2011 and 2.6m in Nov+Dec 2012. I honestly think it needs 2 million the way their pushing it with bundles and price drops. Preferably over 3 million.

I'm expecting the same. With the X1 being the #1 console


I don't think MS will ever lead in NA when it comes to LTD numbers though. Ps4's lead with 1.1mln consoles is just too massive.

RIP in peace console gaming if true.

I mean the dying 360 did 650k in November 2013 when next gen consoles were launched.

 

[Mpl90]

So according to Aqua, there now is a 1.1 million difference between the PS4 and XB1. Can we get an approximation of this months numbers from this?

Up to September, checking back older threads
PS4 LTD - 4,488,000
Xbox One LTD - 3,490,332

LTD difference up to September - 997,668
LTD difference up to October - 1,100,000 means that PS4 sold 102,332 units more than Xbox One

P.S. There could be some errors, don't take this as a 100% correct estimate

 

[BradleyLove]

I'm sorry what's bollocks about it? I get the same thing but better and for free on the open platform. There's a reason for it. It's not bs, it's a fact.

The reason things that suck don't take off on pc is because of the openness, no matter which examples you try to cite. You don't have the same luxury on a closed platform. If Microsoft decides to convert windows into the awful reality of a closed garden console, the community at large will either find a way around it or will change platforms en masse. That's the beauty of an open platform with a massive community. In the mean time, feel free to justify paying a second time for your internet connection. Its as anti consumer as anything else on a closed platform, IMO

What's bollocks is your insistence I'm paying for my internet connection twice. I'm paying for a service: the end. Insisting paying for XBL or PS Plus is "paying a second time for an internet connection" is as correct as saying the same for paying for any other internet based service, be that Spotify, Netflix, whatever.

And please, enlighten me; how do you propose to make use of DX12 without upgrading to Windows 10?

The Windows-based PC may be less "anti-consumer" than consoles, but they're still subject to anti-consumer practices as proved over the decade by MS in particular.

 

[orochi91]

Up to September, checking back older threads
PS4 LTD - 4,488,000
Xbox One LTD - 3,490,332

LTD difference up to September - 997,668
LTD difference up to October - 1,100,000 means that PS4 sold 102,332 units more than Xbox One

P.S. There could be some errors, don't take this as a 100% correct estimate

So about ~324k PS4 and about ~222k XB1.

Pretty big drop from October for the PS4.

 

[Welfare]

XB1 has only sold ~1844k so far this year. The 360 sold 3.4m in Nov+Dec 2011 and 2.6m in Nov+Dec 2012. I honestly think it needs 2 million the way their pushing it with bundles and price drops. Preferably over 3 million.

The One has sold 1674k so far this year, not including October. We don't know October yet.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Both are going to crack a million units in Nov, and more than that in Dec.

If they really are under a million units with such ample supplies, these consoles are already dead.

 

[mrklaw]

Both are going to crack a million units in Nov, and more than that in Dec.

If they really are under a million units with such ample supplies, these consoles are already dead.

You think Sony has ample supply after selling so strongly throughout the year?

 

[Welfare]

Both are going to crack a million units in Nov, and more than that in Dec.

If they really are under a million units with such ample supplies, these consoles are already dead.

Thank you. I really don't see these consoles selling less than 1 million a month this Holiday.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

You think Sony has ample supply after selling so strongly throughout the year?

They've sold modestly all year in the USA. Sept was the first banner month PS4 has had this year. Every other month of the year has been below Wii and PS2 numbers. So yes, if they don't have the supply, they screwed up.

 

[Majmun]

You think Sony has ample supply after selling so strongly throughout the year?

This is going to be their biggest battle. The Ps4 has been selling great across the whole world* since launch. Unlike MS, Sony won't have much reserves, me thinks. They can't afford shortages, especially not in NA.

*except for Japan

 

[Prototype Viktor]

You'll be lucky if she ever posts again, and I doubt very much it'll ever be in an NPD thread if so.
Don't hold your breath for numbers coming from anywhere, if anyone was willing to leak they would have by now.

she could always just PM the numbers to someone (ala speedy blue) we would never believe as revenge

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

What's bollocks is your insistence I'm paying for my internet connection twice. I'm paying for a service: the end. Insisting paying for XBL or PS Plus is "paying a second time for an internet connection" is as correct as saying the same for paying for any other internet based service, be that Spotify, Netflix, whatever.

No it isn't.

Games with Gold is a service. Party chat is a service. Matchmaking is a service.
Online multiplayer is a feature that you have paid for with the purchase of a game that is locked behind a paywall.
You can keep telling yourself it isn't, but its equivalent to buying a DVD player that only lets you access chapter select, commentary and deleted scenes if you pay a subscription fee.

 

[Paganmoon]

You'll be lucky if she ever posts again, and I doubt very much it'll ever be in an NPD thread if so.
Don't hold your breath for numbers coming from anywhere, if anyone was willing to leak they would have by now.

https://twitter.com/AquamarineGAF/status/533739584325025792

Pretty sure (hope) we can expect some semi-solid numbers on the 19:th.

 

[Road]

I think there's a hint for PS4 and XBO sales here: https://twitter.com/AquamarineGAF/status/533502298560167936

Anyway, my early pessimistic guess for November:

XBO 840k
PS4 740k

 

[Welfare]

I think there's a hint for PS4 and XBO sales here: https://twitter.com/AquamarineGAF/status/533502298560167936

Anyway, my early pessimistic guess for November:

XBO 840k
PS4 740k

How is that a hint?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I see in the absence of numbers, we're veering into the games I like are real games, and dimensions of value I don't value will be the death of us all territory.

Consumer wallets have driven production budgets up. Publishers are chasing CoD dollars.

It's the same reason why every second movie these days is either CG animated or a comic book film.

Both are going to crack a million units in Nov, and more than that in Dec.

If they really are under a million units with such ample supplies, these consoles are already dead.

The numbers earlier [the 600K guesses] seem pessimistic, but I don't think it's symbolic if both don't crack a million. The PS3 never cracked a million.

 

[ShaiKhulud]

I think you may want to re-check your forecasts

 

[Road]

^ I already did. I revised my PS4 number down.

Depends on the console as well as the year of the gen itself.

Overall, consoles usually see at least a little more than double the amount of sales in November (in comparison to October). I say at least because there are times in which sales have tripled or quadrupled for a console in November; The Xbox 360 in November 2011 comes to my mind in terms of the latter.

The highest increases for the 360 was 2012 (4.7), and PS3, also 2012 (4.6).

But the highest overall are: Wii 2012 (8.9), Vita 2012 (6.2) and Wii 2010 (5.5). Not counting dead systems and stuff that was selling less than 10k per month (whose sales I don't even have anyway)

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I think there's a hint for PS4 and XBO sales here: https://twitter.com/AquamarineGAF/status/533502298560167936

Anyway, my early pessimistic guess for November:

XBO 840k
PS4 740k

I hope all these calls of under a million units are wrong. Neither console should be pulling such low numbers. WiiU I can forgive for not passing the 500k mark. One and PS4 are the defacto standards in the US. Anything less than a million units for each shows a much smaller potential market for them than I could have ever expected. Neither is exactly expensive this holiday.

It's the same reason why every second movie these days is either CG animated or a comic book film.The numbers earlier [the 600K guesses] seem pessimistic, but I don't think it's symbolic if both don't crack a million. The PS3 never cracked a million.

PS3 also isn't going to crack the 30 million unit mark.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I hope all these calls of under a million units are wrong. Neither console should be pulling such low numbers. WiiU I can forgive for not passing the 500k mark. One and PS4 are the defacto standards in the US. Anything less than a million units for each shows a much smaller potential market for them than I could have ever expected. Neither is exactly expensive this holiday.

PS3 also isn't going to crack the 30 million unit mark.

The 360 will eventually be the best selling console of last gen in the US, and it only cracked the million mark in November 3 years out of it.
The PS2 only did it like once as well, although sales have been progressively moving from December to November.

I think these systems have a better chance at it given the earlier lower prices, but I don't think deriving any deep meaning from the relatively arbitrary number of a million units is necessary.

 

[StevieP]

No it isn't.

Games with Gold is a service. Party chat is a service. Matchmaking is a service.
Online multiplayer is a feature that you have paid for with the purchase of a game that is locked behind a paywall.
You can keep telling yourself it isn't, but its equivalent to buying a DVD player that only lets you access chapter select, commentary and deleted scenes if you pay a subscription fee.

Not to mention that those provided services are free of charge (or, included with the purchase of your game if you prefer) on the open platform.

 

[Y2Kev]

^ I already did. I revised my PS4 number down.



The highest increases for the 360 was 2012 (4.7), and PS3, also 2012 (4.6).

But the highest overall are: Wii 2012 (8.9), Vita 2011 (6.2) and Wii 2010 (5.5). Not counting dead systems and stuff that was selling less than 10k per month (whose sales I don't even have anyway)

brain cannot process

 

[serversurfer]

I think just over triple October is a good base line for predictions for the X1. PS4 will be closer to double.


I think the Xbox will do about 700k
The PS4 will do about 630k

So, compared to September, you think the PS4 will be up 17%, and the XBone will be up 146%?

That seems like a pretty tiny bump for the PS4, and a pretty huge bump for the Bone. You're aware Sony have Black Friday bundles too, yes? They even have one aimed at families, which MS didn't even bother with. Hell, both of the Bone bundles feature broken games, yes? So broken games more than double XBone sales, but no one notices GTA came out for free with a PS4? Srsly?

Compared to September, XBone is $70 cheaper, but the PS4 is $50 cheaper and they're kicking in another game. So the net difference is $20 versus a game. I'm not seeing how $20 causes people to flock to the XBone yet a free game piques no real interest in the PS4.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

The 360 will eventually be the best selling console of last gen in the US, and it only cracked the million mark in November 3 years out of it.
The PS2 only did it like once as well, although sales have been progressively moving from December to November.

I think these systems have a better chance at it given the earlier lower prices, but I don't think deriving any deep meaning from the relatively arbitrary number of a million units is necessary.

Neither One, nor PS4 are the 360 or PS3. Neither is likely to have anywhere close to the lifespan. Their sales will have to come from their first three to four years. They're also generally cheaper than their predecessors were at similar points in their life.

We already know what their nonholiday performances are like... and they are far from spectacular. If they don't have very good holiday performances, by this time next year we're all going to be wondering why they've fallen behind PS2 and 360 in similar timeframes.

 

[spatenfloot]

I predict 900k and 901k for November.

 

[Welfare]

So, compared to September, you think the PS4 will be up 17%, and the XBone will be up 146%?

That seems like a pretty tiny bump for the PS4, and a pretty huge bump for the Bone. You're aware Sony have Black Friday bundles too, yes? They even have one aimed at families, which MS didn't even bother with. Hell, both of the Bone bundles feature broken games, yes? So broken games more than double XBone sales, but no one notices GTA came out for free with a PS4? Srsly?

Compared to September, XBone is $70 cheaper, but the PS4 is $50 cheaper and they're kicking in another game. So the net difference is $20 versus a game. I'm not seeing how $20 causes people to flock to the XBone yet a free game piques no real interest in the PS4.

$20 is enough to buy D4

 

[shinra-bansho]

Neither One, nor PS4 are the 360 or PS3. Neither is likely to have anywhere close to the lifespan. Their sales will have to come from their first three to four years. They're also generally cheaper than their predecessors were at similar points in their life.

We already know what their nonholiday performances are like... and they are far from spectacular. If they don't have very good holiday performances, by this time next year we're all going to be wondering why they've fallen behind PS2 and 360 in similar timeframes.

I think it's to be expected that the PS4 will eventually fall behind the PS2. Because we've had two systems more effectively targeting the same market segment since last gen.

I also don't expect an extended cycle, which reins in lifetime expectations somewhat. The bulk of their sales will come from the middle chunk of their life spans, the early and late majorities of their diffusion curves, so yes, probably within 4 years.

But I don't think that a situation like :

I predict 900k and 901k for November.

Should be considered the death knell. As they're pretty good November performances, while not spectacular.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I think it's to be expected that the PS4 will eventually fall behind the PS2. Because we've had two systems more effectively targeting the same market segment since last gen.

I also don't expect an extended cycle, which reins in lifetime expectations somewhat. The bulk of their sales will come from the middle chunk of their life spans, the early and late majorities of their diffusion curves.

But I don't think that a situation like :
Should be considered the death knell.

I'd consider that disappointing but not a death knell.

It's the calls of barely over 800k units or less than that would give me serious pause.