Yup, 360's success is proof of that.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Yup, 360's success is proof of that.
gundamkyoukai
Member
yep percentage wise Japan made up less than 10% of 360\PS3 user base which shows how small it was .
Hell even the monster than was PS2 Japan only made up 15% out of the 150 million sold WW.
I don't know how much PS4 Sony going to sell in Japan but like another person said if they can sell 5 million that other 5 million easy to make up.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Okay, so Japan doesn't matter anymore as one of the three major console territories and the PS4 is guaranteed to sell 5 million units there anyway because reasons.
So what sales figures do the PS4 and Xbone need to beat this holiday in NA to prove there's nothing wrong with the console market? 3 million a piece, November + December?
Just so we can adhere some of these goalposts.
So what sales figures do the PS4 and Xbone need to beat this holiday in NA to prove there's nothing wrong with the console market? 3 million a piece, November + December?
Just so we can adhere some of these goalposts.
theprodigy
Member
"3 major console territories?" give me a fucking break, UK alone was roughly equal to Japan last gen for combined console sales, and is probably going to be bigger this gen
KillerMan91
Member
Germany and France also could pass Japan this gen when it comes to size of home console market.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Why don't you give us some numbers if you are saying PS4\X1 in trouble .
How much do they need to sell for them not to be in trouble for consoles in there first year on the market .
gundamkyoukai
Member
Could be possible but there lot factors at play like console gen length , price drops etc etc .
Metallix87
Member
Traditional userbase?
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
The collapse of Japan as a major territory doesn't actually refute my belief that the console games industry is in trouble.
If neither console breaks a million in either November or December there is almost zero chance they make up for any shortfall in Japan and the loss of the Wiis expanded audience.
There is little to no chance of that happening.
I meant the "hardcore" nintendo userbase (is there even one?) lol
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
So failing to hit that incredibly low target will have you admit that there is a fucking real problem?
Would hitting that target make you admit there is no problems? I know, I know, you wouldn't.
There is a middle road between everything is fine and doom.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
There is about a zero % chance that the PS4 and Xbox One don't each sell 1 million in North America in December.
small44
Member
I don't see why this gen will be shorter then last one,i think with the numbers of cross-gen games it prove that 3rd party don't won't shorter gen.
They will hit that target.
Will you come back to admit you were wrong and there are no real fucking problems?
It all depends man. Revenue pours in from certain games and certain trends. Sony made a cheapish console with easy profitability in mind for now and probably at least one more gen. I see no reason they need to do anything but keep scaling the console down. As the world turns more of Asia and Europe and SA might get into extremely cheap and maybe all digital PS3s and streaming. That could further add to the backend of the consoles lifeline. It surely will in some lower tier countries. Repeat with PS4.
The console itself though doesn't seem to be in trouble at all. Especially if they are now going to do strictly 5 or 6 year consoles. The games just need to keep rolling in from high quality studios. They don't care about 150 million users with 4 games average. They want 60 million users all subbed to PS Plus who have bought 5-10 games.
The Xbox One as is has been in trouble since its inception. It is a flawed console much like the WiiU. They could have some troubles for sure. I don't see this at all with PS4 and even the other two seem to be doing okay.
ninjablade
Banned
the wii expanded audience only existed for one generation, consoles sales have been great for sony every single gen, and it continues with ps4. i know this theory of console are in trouble cause the wiiu is faling makes some nintendo fans feel better but it's not reality. the ps4 is destroying ps3 in sales, and XB1 is still head of the 360, where going back to ps2 like numbers, with XB brand doing much better.
ps4 110 million
XB1 40-50 million
wiiu 13-18 million
theprodigy
Member
don't you try and shift the discussion from "PS4 won't outsell PS3" to "this generation will be smaller than the last one"
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
No; like I said above - if they do 3 million apiece over 2 months, then I'll eat crow and admit things aren't as bad as I think.
If they hit 1 million they are as bad as I think.
Less than a million, and they're much worse.
Why are none of you "everythings great!" folks prepared to put any numbers down?
Because I don't think "beating the PS3" (the last place console for a significant portion of last gen) is a particularly high target for success for a market leader, and the fact its being discussed as such also doesn't refute my belief that there are real problems
Welfare
Member
Wait, so are you saying it's bad if they don't hit 1 million in November, or November+December? If the latter, that would terribly terrible.
3 million apiece is a very tall order, as that's 1.5 million for 2 months. 2 million is a much more realistic goal than 3 million.
i think it's evident it's much harder to make profit solely looking at the fewer games on the market and how much money developers expect to get from each game from continued support. they went from selling $50 products in the ps2 days to basically selling $60 products now, and much more when you factor in dlc/season passes. this hasn't become a neat extra stream of revenue, but something that's relied on, hence sony's new method of locking multiplayer behind a paywall. this benefits both them and third-parties to the detriment of the consumer.
the wii may have been unconventional, but it was very much a traditional console. it was dedicated hardware with software sold at retail from mostly developers who were versed in the console space. activision, sega, ubisoft, and electronic arts among others all saw success on the machine. you couldn't be two guys in a room and make a game that sold millions. it didn't introduce the world to a bunch of rovios, but it did introduce a lot of new people to the traditional market. and i don't know about you, but i'd rather stick with the devil i know than the one i don't if it came to finding an additional revenue stream. activision seems to be giving it a shot. either they feel there's an audience there or they see the writing on the wall. even then, it looks like skylanders is an ill-fit for this new market, at least in its current form. these mega-publishers will have to change and adapt in big ways if they want to make money on the platform with the lowest software costs to customers. it's a far, far cry from what the wii was.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I was talking compare to the PS3\360 gen those PS2 gen profit days not coming back .
I would say compare to lets say 5 years ago it easier to make more profit on this gen compare to last one.
That's the exact group of people that bought a Wii U before Mario Kart.
They still exist. They just aren't that many.
the ps4 doesn't hit 110 million without some serious inroads elsewhere and over a long period of time.
the xbox 360 shipped 80 million units worldwide in eight years. that seems not so bad - 10m a year, but 40 million happened in the first five years, with a disproportionate amount coming in the ensuing four years. with the gaming landscape undergoing such a massive change, with less traditional software than ever sold by conventional means, with less reach to broader demographics, i really don't know how the ps4 manages to best that number by such a major amount.
the idea isn't that the outlook is bad. the idea is that the market has been poor for a while and we're now seeing the effects of the shortsightedness from everyone last gen. but specifically with regards to sony and microsoft, it seems that early sales were essentially frontloaded and we're seeing what would be second and third place systems duking it out versus first and second place consoles from the previous two generations. the idea is that customers have been trained into day one purchases - you can see this with destiny and its immense 90% month-over-month drop, and that this even translated into console sales.
thewhitehawk
Member
There's a lot of choice and competition for the TV box, but as far as TV gaming consoles go, there's really only three players. Everything else is a niche market.
Mobile is a factor, people who could potentially buy a home console, can now be satisfied with games on smartphones and tablets.
This is more harmful for handhelds, but home consoles suffer too.
and again, i would have to disagree. it's only easier if you're a certain kind of publisher. there may be an illusion that things are better right now, but it's mostly because a lot of publishers have stopped trying to reach other demographics or have outright vanished.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Everybody rushing to get something day 1 is not unique to games.
This happens to all forms of hardware and entertainment .
Of course it easier if your a certain type of publisher the market has never be fair to everyone .
If publishers trying to reach other demographics they make games for mobile\PC which the big publishers doing .
The question is who loses the most when certain demographics move and if Sony and MS sell same amount of consoles as last gen .
And them along with and certain publishers make more money on console compare to before i don't see how they think it would be bad .
Even if we take your hypothesis at face value despite me disagreeing with it, what happens without the churn that console manufacturers expect to continue any kind of growth, be it profit or userbase?
Because if you're not adding new blood into the "traditional" ecosystem, guess what happens in a fairly short time, historically speaking? The kid who's playing free touch-only games on mommy's old tablet isn't going to be upgrading to a PS5 where $70 games with $50 season passes and $50 online fees for multiplayer are the norm.
ninjablade
Banned
you're comparing the ps4 to the 360, why not compare it to the ps3? it's no secret, sony messed up big time last gen with the 599$ ps3, yet it still managed to ship 80 million units in 7 years despite 360 stealing half it's market share, and Microsoft doing everything right. sony launched the ps3 in march 2007 in europe, that's sony strongest region, despite all the mistakes, along with inferior controller and multiplatform games, sony managed to outsell the 360, that just shows how strong the sony brand is in europe.
gundamkyoukai
Member
They will adjust just like how other markets had to , we already see Sony is trying streaming , EA with there own version .
Games might becomes a service or stay with hardware or who know what else the market still going threw a adjustment .
If 10 years from now i playing games i like on my tablet hook up to my TV (even if it not from companies we using right now) it don't bother me.
For eg years ago people used to say F2P MMORPGS games look cheap now they the norm compare to subscription ones with good gfx and game play and companies had to get with the times.
really, i should be comparing it to the wii, as the two platforms that are supposed to perform best.
framing this in terms of sony is not my perspective. i'm framing this in terms of the traditional market.
$399 vs $250 though.
serversurfer
Member
From the OP:
Overall retail sales down less than 1% year over year.
Hardware up 59% year over year
The console industry seems pretty healthy to me. /shrug
Mr. N. should be careful what he wishes for though. If console gaming dies out by the end of next year, people won't flock back to PC instead. If console gaming dies, it'll be because people decided they didn't care about that kind of game any more, and were perfectly satisfied with Flappy Bird and Clash of Clans. Fortunately for Mr. N., I don't really see that happening any time soon, so he'll be able to continue to begrudgingly enjoy AAA games, back-ported and up-rezzed from the much-hated console.
Overall retail sales down less than 1% year over year.
Hardware up 59% year over year
The console industry seems pretty healthy to me. /shrug
Mr. N. should be careful what he wishes for though. If console gaming dies out by the end of next year, people won't flock back to PC instead. If console gaming dies, it'll be because people decided they didn't care about that kind of game any more, and were perfectly satisfied with Flappy Bird and Clash of Clans. Fortunately for Mr. N., I don't really see that happening any time soon, so he'll be able to continue to begrudgingly enjoy AAA games, back-ported and up-rezzed from the much-hated console.
I do not see how both systems would hit the same sales threshold this holiday. They are still selling primarily to people who do not own a new system yet. When the systems are $299 next year and games like Uncharted 4 and Halo 5 are out, they will do more business with customers who tend to buy more than one system in a hardware cycle. Right now, the biggest games are multiplatform, which makes it easy for slightly-less-tha-enthusuast to own a single platform. The combination of bundle deals and availability will determine who "wins" the last two months of the year.
The hardware is not near the pricing range of sixth gen systems after two years (axing Dreamcast because it was killed in 2001), but I think price drops will be better than last gen. PS4 will probably hit $299 fifteen months faster than PS3 despite selling a lot faster. Microsoft is no longer in the driver's seat, and we are already seeing genuine price cuts rather than just increased storage and first party games thrown in at the same MSRP. I would not say there is a GTA IV equivalent coming out next year, but with a faster drop to $299, games that are coming out will probably do more to move hardware, rather than just selling to the existing audience.
If publishers have a problem next year, it will be that they created an enormous logjam for releases by delaying so many titles. The first year of new systems on the market are a good time to establish franchises, and the two biggest franchise debuts have been from the companies that already pump out big games every year - Ubisoft and Activision. There is not really a GOTY contender between the two of them, but they got to move a lot units relatively unopposed. I think games that have gotten less attention among consumers in the lead up to release will have trouble selling in a crowded market, or around the release of (presumably) pre-autumn multiplats like Batman and Metal Gear. Bad timing is a killer.
The hardware is not near the pricing range of sixth gen systems after two years (axing Dreamcast because it was killed in 2001), but I think price drops will be better than last gen. PS4 will probably hit $299 fifteen months faster than PS3 despite selling a lot faster. Microsoft is no longer in the driver's seat, and we are already seeing genuine price cuts rather than just increased storage and first party games thrown in at the same MSRP. I would not say there is a GTA IV equivalent coming out next year, but with a faster drop to $299, games that are coming out will probably do more to move hardware, rather than just selling to the existing audience.
If publishers have a problem next year, it will be that they created an enormous logjam for releases by delaying so many titles. The first year of new systems on the market are a good time to establish franchises, and the two biggest franchise debuts have been from the companies that already pump out big games every year - Ubisoft and Activision. There is not really a GOTY contender between the two of them, but they got to move a lot units relatively unopposed. I think games that have gotten less attention among consumers in the lead up to release will have trouble selling in a crowded market, or around the release of (presumably) pre-autumn multiplats like Batman and Metal Gear. Bad timing is a killer.
At this point Wii was often going for more than $400 second hand and it was chronically sold out. MSRP doesn't tell the real price story with Wii.
The Wii user base went to Candy Crush. The traditional userbase (it's not that huge) is rocking the Wii U.
again, a failing of the microsoft and sony side of things.
In what way?
No it isn't, it shows the true value of Wii to consumer demand. That people were paying double MSRP in some cases to own the platform isn't irrelevant.
If Wii had a MSRP of $299 or $349 or $399 it could've potentially still been perpetually sold out it's first year. People were paying that and more for it.
Yeah, they should have made 250$ machines. That would be great.
sörine;139257310 said:
It's still irrelevant because that wasn't the price most people paid for it. The existance of scalping does not mean that every console would have been sold at 400$
of course hardware is up. it's a new generation and people should be buying more. also, people weren't buying a whole lot last year. also it's a comparison of old consoles to new consoles in terms of revenue, with current consoles being $140 or more versus the things available last year.
geordiemp
Member
They are all posting on GAF....LOL sorry could not resist.
Don't think there is one, but everyone has a soft spot for some Nintendo games, its just often its only a few and its not that big worth buying a console for.
Would I buy some WiiU games, yes, but there are not as big to me as many big AAA multiplat games
I don't know why people keep bring up Wii, it was a FAD, many of us believed in the motion control hype and went with it for a while, then people moved on. Its not coming back.
sony and microsoft have held off making a product affordable for the mass-market since around 2004. sony eventually made the ps2 $100 when it was nine years old. the ps3 and 360 should have hit the $149.99 price at some point in 2010 or at least when the third version of each platform actually made it to the market. but if sony and microsoft want to make an expanded userbase by making dedicated gaming hardware too expensive to buy in or drop the price on comfortably as time goes on, that's the bed they'll have to sleep in.
and yes, systems made to sell at $300 or $250 would be great. i feel like $400 was too much to ask for in 1995 and it's too much to ask for in 2014.
edit: and nintendo is super guilty of this too. $349.99 for a video game system - what were they thinking. and over $149.99 for a handheld is crazy (and i still believe handhelds should be $100 with $30 games).
what about the psp - was that a fad? it sold more units than the gba and yet its successor may not sell more units than the game gear, or wii u for that matter. what about the ds which sold almost as many units as the ps2, only to see its successor fall short of the gba/psp? how many entire segments of the market need to fall off before it raises alarm?