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[E-phonk]

Interesting that they increased the software forecast for Wii U by 5 mio. Practically they expect Q4 to be similar with Q1 or Q2, but what games will drive these 5 mio. sales though?

Good question. They raise it - so they expect 4.4 million SW sales on WiiU, where last year they had 2.7 in the same periode (with donkey kong if i'm not mistaken).

Toad in europe might do some, and kirby in the US. Mario party can make some sales although I don't know how front loaded they are since it releases late in march.
The Wii game eshop sales, but I think they count digital separately for games not at retail right?

Mario Maker, Splatoon and The Legend of Zelda I assume.

It's for this quarter - so january - march 2015

 

[shinra-bansho]

Looking again at 3DS numbers for Jan-Mar quarter for past years... it's not making this revised forecast, even with the n3DS launching. Outside of launch and the post-pricecut FYQ4 it's never gotten near to the 2M mark in that Q.

If they can somehow maintain those numbers for the next two years

That seems like an unlikelihood.

Console is at 9.2M shipped already. By the end of the 2015 Nintendo will probably add another 3-4M. I can see it reaching 15M sold through sometimes in 2016.

I really can't see shipments holding at that level for another two fiscal years i.e. through FYE3/17, let alone accelerating to the point where it's feasible for it to have sold through that much in 2016.

 

[airmangataosenai]

It's nice that they're making money for the past two quarters, but is the OP seriously calling it a comeback when sales are down across the board from last year's already lousy sales (Barring Wii SW thanks to Smash)? Long term, this sort of decline is a problem, the 3DS isn't old enough to be down by this much and the Wii didn't even match last year's shipments. They're up overall YoY but that was inevitable with this being the system's last stand, they're not going to meet their sales target for the overall FY.

Console is at 9.2M shipped already. By the end of the 2015 Nintendo will probably add another 3-4M.

I would bet money on you being wrong here.

 

[KingSnake]

Mario Maker, Splatoon and The Legend of Zelda I assume.

I was talking about Q4 2014 FY (Jan-Mar 2015) and none of those games is in that quarter.

considering they only have kirby and mario party 10, it really is an odd thing to do. kirby may hit about 700k worldwide, being optimistic. mario party 10 could maaaaybe do about 1.5m units. again, optimistically.

Oh, right, I forgot about Mario Party 10. That seems to be (pre)selling quite nicely (the bundle with Mario amiibo) as it is going out of stock from time to time. Kirby is not coming out in EU and I don't think it will do anything spectacular in Japan either.

Edit: But thinking about it, it managed to do 2.7 mio last year only on the back of DKC:TF and the LTTP for SM3DW and the rest of 2013 line-up. With more releases this year and LTTP for SSB and MK8 they might reach it.

 

[random25]

Interesting that they increased the software forecast for Wii U by 5 mio. Practically they expect Q4 to be similar with Q1 or Q2, but what games will drive these 5 mio. sales though?

Mario Kart 8 is still selling, and Smash Wii U may still sell big as it's just a month old game, so most likely the majority of their forecasts are on those 2 games, but more dependent on Smash.

 

[vinnygambini]

It's the safe bet. Although, I thought they did normally include a statement of CF.

Page 25 only appears in Year-End reports, but yeah, like you mentioned, that's the safest bet. Still $1 Billion US increase in a quarter seems more than the usual for Ninty.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2014/annual1403e.pdf

 

[KooopaKid]

What's good is that it shows Nintendo have its own market. They can be autonomous forever (If they play their cards right). They don't need the rest of the industry.

 

[Rösti]

I was talking about Q4 2014 FY (Jan-Mar 2015) and none of those games is in that quarter.

Sorry, thought you meant full year FY 2015, as the table you quoted regards FY 2015 (as far as I can tell anyway).

 

[AniHawk]

What's good is that it shows Nintendo have its own market. They can be autonomous forever (If they play their cards right). They don't need the rest of the industry.

that really isn't true. this market was and is quite costly to them. they need a larger audience and to reach more people if they wish to stay at their current size.

 

[Oddduck]

Console is at 9.2M shipped already. By the end of the 2015 Nintendo will probably add another 3-4M. I can see it reaching 15M sold through sometimes in 2016.

I don't see Wii U reaching 15 million by the end of 2016.

 

[Striek]

Page 25 only appears in Year-End reports, but yeah, like you mentioned, that's the safest bet. Still $1 Billion US increase in a quarter seems more than the usual for Ninty.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2014/annual1403e.pdf

Half is forex, no?

 

[Jackano]

Profits are cool, but outside that... Cost-cutting measures and Wii U HW sales sucks.
Wii U not being superior to last year is really bad. At this rate beating 12M will be a performance.
Next-gen can't come too soon, but first of all I hope they take the time to do things right.

 

[KingSnake]

I wonder if Nintendo could afford now a price cut for Wii U. It could help them keep the momentum (I know, I know, it's dead) for HW and especially SW sales. It could also help the sales of the games coming in 2015 (which are not as big sellers as MK8 and SSB).

Wii U not being superior to last year is really bad.

But it is year/year. Plus it's really down in Japan (where the whole market for consoles is in deep shit), while it's quite up in the rest of the world for Q3 too.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

There's not really much they can do to turn it around. I think we all accepted the Wii U was never going to do well after its first year.

As for the 3DS. It's not down from doing well to doing mediocre. It's not in bad shape. I'm fairly certain the knowledge of the N3DS and no release in Europe and US had a major impact on sales.

I don't agree with that assessment, I think we define words like "tanking" and "mediocre" differently you and I, but that's cool!

But when these quarterly reports get released I always am wondering how Nintendo is going to get relevant again. Who are going to buy their platforms the next time around? The core? Who all seem pretty comfortable on PS4/ XBO/ PC. The casuals? How do you compete with mobile and browser games? The kids? Who are growing up playing Minecraft (a game that's on every platform except the Nintendo ones). Who knows what might happen, but will they really do better when they release their new machines?

 

[Anth0ny]

I wonder if Nintendo could afford now a price cut for Wii U. It could help them keep the momentum (I know, I know, it's dead) for HW and especially SW sales. It could also help the sales of the games coming in 2015 (which are not as big sellers as MK8 and SSB).

I expect a $50 price cut this year. I don't think they're going to get all aggressive with the price this late in the game.

 

[Goodlife]

Guaranteed.

I'd be surprised if it cracks 15 million by the end of its life. They sold 3.34 million Wii Us in what will likely be the biggest year for the console. If they can somehow maintain those numbers for the next two years, they crack 15 million. But they don't have another Smash Bros coming. Or Mario Kart. Or Mario. So I can't see it happening.

They still haven't had a pricecut though.

How many gamecubes were sold when the price got cut to £99?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

FX gains and weaker Japanese Yen. Nintendo is actually doing worse this year than last year. I would like to see these results on a constant currency basis so the revenue is adjusted to the lower level of sales.

The only real change has been a 10bn yen cut in SG&A costs.

 

[marc^o^]

exactly how long do you think they're going to keep it around? once its successor comes out they're gonna drop it :lol

I'm not sure it will make sense for them to release a new console system until 2018. What kind of HW would that be, a more powerful system? That would hardly make a difference with 3rd party support, and could work against Nintendo development efficience. They'd rather focus on developping more Wii U games, cut the price, keep transitioning the wii audience that loved NSMB and Mario Kart, the 3DS owners, and prepare for the next round against PS5.

Unless they surprise us with an improbable wii risk/scenario.

 

[KooopaKid]

that really isn't true. this market was and is quite costly to them. they need a larger audience and to reach more people if they wish to stay at their current size.

Of course but I was more talking about third parties. They don't need them at all. It would be just a bonus. Nintendo can expand their market alone if they want to.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Profits are cool, but outside that... Cost-cutting measures and Wii U HW sales sucks.
Wii U not being superior to last year is really bad. At this rate beating 12M will be a performance.
Next-gen can't come too soon, but first of all I hope they take the time to do things right.

It will beat 12M.

Even if they miss forecast, I imagine they'll be at a LTD of about 9.6M by end of FY.
It could fall dramatically this next FY and only do like 2M and still crawl to 12M.

15M is a bigger question mark.

65M is probably going to be the barrier for the 3DS.

 

[Anth0ny]

I'm not sure it will make sense for them to release a new console system until 2018. What kind of HW would that be, a more powerful system? That would hardly make a difference with 3rd party support, and could work against Nintendo development efficience. They'd rather focus on developping more Wii U games, cut the price, keep transitioning the wii audience that loved NSMB and Mario Kart, the 3DS owners, and prepare for the next round against PS5.

Unless they surprise us with an improbable wii risk/scenario.

Wii U is a zombie at this point. They'd be insane to keep it alive until 2018.

2016 is the right time for a successor, but I'm expecting 2017.

 

[Muzy72]

I'm guessing Nintendo's strategy for Wii U this holiday is a $50 price cut with either Smash or Kart included. Price cut + the launch of Zelda and Mario Maker could make for decent sales.

 

[allan-bh]

3DS weakened faster than I expected.

4.99m against 7.76m in Q3 2013

 

[1st Course]

Digital Sales: ¥10.4 billion yen

Where do you see this figure? I don't see it in the IR report.

 

[Kathian]

FX gains and weaker Japanese Yen. Nintendo is actually doing worse this year than last year. I would like to see these results on a constant currency basis so the revenue is adjusted to the lower level of sales.

The only real change has been a 10bn yen cut in SG&A costs.

Ignoring currency as a factor is just silly; you can't remove it from one set of numbers when it affects a whole host of items. If you are interested in unit sales we have those.

 

[Taker666]

I wonder if Nintendo could afford now a price cut for Wii U. It could help them keep the momentum (I know, I know, it's dead) for HW and especially SW sales. It could also help the sales of the games coming in 2015 (which are not as big sellers as MK8 and SSB).



But it is year/year. Plus it's really down in Japan (where the whole market for consoles is in deep shit), while it's quite up in the rest of the world for Q3 too.

I think they'd be much better off keeping the price as is...and vastly increasing their marketing budget. If they cut the price by $50, they'd be lucky to sell an extra million units. I think spending an extra $50,000,000 on marketing their products(be that tv ads or displays at retail) would be far more helpful in pushing systems and software.

 

[vinnygambini]

Where do you see this figure? I don't see it in the IR report.

Page 6 - 7. Others

Nine months ended December 31, 2013: 18.0 billion yen
Nine months ended December 31, 2014: 21.1 billion yen

I subtracted from H1

 

[Mpl90]

Page 6 - 7. Others


I subtracted from H1

Going by this

Q3 FY2014 download sales - 6.6 billion Yen
Q3 FY2015 download sales - 10.4 billion Yen

That's a 50+% increase YOY. Nice. Themes / more indie releases / badges / whatever's effect?

 

[KingSnake]

I think they'd be much better off keeping the price as is...and vastly increasing their marketing budget. If they cut the price by $50, they'd be lucky to sell an extra million units. I think spending an extra $50,000,000 on marketing their products(be that tv ads or displays at retail) would be far more helpful in pushing systems and software.

With XBone's price closing down on Wii U's price they will need a lot of marketing budgets to keep it selling even at these low levels as it is now.

 

[disap.ed]

Oh yeah I forgot about Amiibo. They could be a big driver for 2015. Especially with both the WiiU and N3ds being Amiibo enabled. But I think Amiibo still needs a killer app to push a lot of consumers to purchase.

I could see a new Animal Crossing with Cross-3DS/WiiU-release happening.

 

[vinnygambini]

Going by this

Q3 FY2014 download sales - 6.6 billion Yen
Q3 FY2015 download sales - 10.4 billion Yen

That's a 50+% increase YOY. Nice. Themes / more indie releases / badges / whatever's effect?

Nah. All Mario Kart 8 DLC

Though you are correct, hope themes & the 3DS F2P game also gets mentioned in the presentations. I'm also curious on DLC attach rates (MK8, Hyrule Warriors)

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

Anyone know when the shareholder meeting is?

 

[Rösti]

Anyone know when the shareholder meeting is?

As mentioned in the OP:

In essence, we may have ourselves the beginnings of a Nintendo comeback; though greatly helped by abenomics & cost-cutting measures. Investors are also awaiting more details on its new healthcare-related service: Quality of Life & licensing ventures/opportunities - look forward to that on Investors Conference tomorrow at 8pm EST.

10:00 AM JST on Jan. 29.

 

[AniHawk]

Anyone know when the shareholder meeting is?

apparently 5pm pst

 

[1st Course]

Page 6 - 7. Others


I subtracted from H1

Ah know I see it. Thanks

Going by this

Q3 FY2014 download sales - 6.6 billion Yen
Q3 FY2015 download sales - 10.4 billion Yen

That's a 50+% increase YOY. Nice. Themes / more indie releases / badges / whatever's effect?

When you divides by software revenue.

21.1/207.128 = ~10.5%

Digital now accounts for roughly 10.5% of Nintendo's software revenue.

Very low compared to Activision/EA but understandable since Nintendo doesn't have mobile/PC

 

[Vena]

3DS weakened faster than I expected.

4.99m against 7.76m in Q3 2013

Not helped by no one in the know buying a unit due to the looming N3DS.

 

[SuperAngelo64]

Maybe I'm just beating a dead horse here, but I honestly feel just calling it the "Wii 2' would've boosted sales for grandmas and casuals.

Hindsight though.

 

[AniHawk]

Not helped by no one in the know buying a unit due to the looming N3DS.

i doubt that was a significant reason. the western market in particular is much more price sensitive when it comes to family friendly devices, and nintendo's kept the 3ds at the same price since mid-2011 (with a low-end device introduced for this market that hasn't exactly caught fire). the system's going to be $200 probably until the calendar year 2016 when they may drop the xl line to $150? and the standards to $130 while the 2ds is $100 (if it's still around).

the 3ds should really be $100 by now. that's not to say nintendo could afford it. it's more like, the realities surrounding the 3ds's development and design should have lended it the ability to be $100 by now. the 3ds turned out to be the psp2.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Ignoring currency as a factor is just silly; you can't remove it from one set of numbers when it affects a whole host of items. If you are interested in unit sales we have those.

Yes and hardware unit sales are down YoY for both 3DS and Wii U. Seeing the CC changes in revenue would reflect this better. If Abenomics were to falter (and there is a chance of that) and the BoJ reduces or eliminates its current mega stimulus programme JPY will correct itself. The underlying performance of the company is still poor, weaker yen is just papering over the cracks.

 

[jvm]

Ah know I see it. Thanks



When you divides by software revenue.

21.1/207.128 = ~10.5%

Digital now accounts for roughly 10.5% of Nintendo's software revenue.

Very low compared to Activision/EA but understandable since Nintendo doesn't have mobile/PC

That's an improvement. Here's a year ago:

 

[Kinan]

Posted updated launch aligned graphs with new WiiU data here.

 

[Madao]

looking at MK8 and SSB4 Wii U's sales, looks like they might not be the lowest selling entries in their series by the end of the gen after all.

that should please the execs a bit since managing those sales on Wii U makes the older entries look bad in comparison.

 

[ArchangelWest]

For a little perspective on Game Cube sales, GC released in 2001. By late 2003, they had dropped the price to $99. Also, at this point in both consoles history, GC was slightly ahead. So while perhaps Wii U won't sell as much as the Game Cube, it's not absurd to believe that it may get to around 20 million for its life time. Also, if the console gets a truly killer app, all of that goes out of the window.

 

[Mpl90]

i doubt that was a significant reason. the western market in particular is much more price sensitive when it comes to family friendly devices, and nintendo's kept the 3ds at the same price since mid-2011 (with a low-end device introduced for this market that hasn't exactly caught fire). the system's going to be $200 probably until the calendar year 2016 when they may drop the xl line to $150? and the standards to $130 while the 2ds is $100 (if it's still around).

the 3ds should really be $100 by now. that's not to say nintendo could afford it. it's more like, the realities surrounding the 3ds's development and design should have lended it the ability to be $100 by now. the 3ds turned out to be the psp2.

Well, actually, there's 2DS at 129.99, if not 99.99 available in US, so that price zone is theorically covered. But yeah, even if maybe not 99.99, normal 3DS models should have been at lower prices by now (like 129.99 for OG 3DS and 169.99 for 3DS XL). New 3DS XL at 199.99, since it replaces the older model, is understandable. Not the lack of the New 3DS at 169.99 or the lack of any price cut for the older models, though.

 

[marc^o^]

Wii U is a zombie at this point. They'd be insane to keep it alive until 2018.

Wii U was a zombi. Will it remain dead if Nintendo keeps investing on it?

It now has system sellers, a media recognition, a marketing appeal through amiibos, an anticipated 2015 lineup, a potential price cut coming thanks to returned profits.

Launching a new system could be a temptation, more risky though than the safer current improving approach. I don't currently see it.

 

[KingSnake]

Yes and hardware unit sales are down YoY for both 3DS and Wii U. Seeing the CC changes in revenue would reflect this better. If Abenomics were to falter (and there is a chance of that) and the BoJ reduces or eliminates its current mega stimulus programme JPY will correct itself. The underlying performance of the company is still poor, weaker yen is just papering over the cracks.

Not true for Wii U. Wii U HW is up Y/Y and for Q3 is only down in Japan and this is no subject to FX rates influences.

 

[E-phonk]

it's not absurd to believe that it may get to around 20 million for its life time.

It is. It's very unlikely to beat 2014 in absolute numbers - and except for animal crossing all top selling IP are released on the console.

At this exact point in time last year, there was still a chance. It was possible mario kart and smash were the extra success Wii U needed to have that mainstream appeal and finally start selling. By now that moment is gone. There is slight growth in the west (which was expected with these anticipated titles), but in Japan they did (relatively) nothing, and Wii U declined.

WiiU at around 15m LTD when all is said and done (2017) is a stable guess. But there is no factor or element at all, neither historically and/or potentially that we know of that indicates 20m is possible at the moment.

 

[AniHawk]

Wii U was a zombi. Will it remain dead if Nintendo keeps investing on it?

It now has system sellers, a media recognition, a marketing appeal through amiibos, an anticipated 2015 lineup, a potential price cut coming thanks to returned profits.

Launching a new system could be a temptation, more risky though than the safer current improving approach. I don't currently see it.

2017 seems like the launch date of a new traditional console. i don't think their next console will be a traditional one though. the soonest we'd probably see it is 2016 with the launch of the new handheld. the 3ds will be over 5 years old in late next year and nintendo would be wise to just end it before things really get embarrassing.

that said, 2015 and 2016 will probably be rocky periods unless the wii u and 3ds software is really popular and qol actually takes off. r&d of these new systems will probably be well underway at that point, and they probably won't make any money on them for a while.

 

[Kathian]

Yes and hardware unit sales are down YoY for both 3DS and Wii U. Seeing the CC changes in revenue would reflect this better. If Abenomics were to falter (and there is a chance of that) and the BoJ reduces or eliminates its current mega stimulus programme JPY will correct itself. The underlying performance of the company is still poor, weaker yen is just papering over the cracks.

Its not performing well but revenue minus currency changes is just part of the picture. Those changes are affecting not just the value of the revenue but the raising of those revenues.

It would be interesting to see but I don't think its a good indicator of much at all. Nintendo does need to increase those margins though; right now they clearly are in a position where negative economic moves could have a big impact on them.

 

[Oddduck]

For a little perspective on Game Cube sales, GC released in 2001. By late 2003, they had dropped the price to $99. Also, at this point in both consoles history, GC was slightly ahead. So while perhaps Wii U won't sell as much as the Game Cube, it's not absurd to believe that it may get to around 20 million for its life time. Also, if the console gets a truly killer app, all of that goes out of the window.

Wii U won't get anywhere near 20 million.

Unlike Wii U, the GameCube still had third party support from major publishers in it's third year of life.