I don't think it can be a system seller, even here in Europe.
I am afraid this deal is going to hurt the game more than help the console.
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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I don't think it can be a system seller, even here in Europe.
I am afraid this deal is going to hurt the game more than help the console.
Microsoft should bundle TR with every Xbone from its release until the end of the year, I'll be pissed if it bombs & Square cans the franchise.
Most of TR's sales came from Europe on PS3, it's a pretty big franchise in EU, the only question is whether its big enough that people would buy a console for it.
But doing that risks flatlining for the rest of the year. If you spread your releases out a little more, you can try to raise the baseline monthly sales for your hardware across the year. Seems shortsighted, especially when everyone else seems to release during the Holidays too.
They'll use the same play they did with Assassin's Creed. Pricecut to $299 with Tomb Raider 2013 and Rise bundled in.
If anything, they more than likely expected that (positive) buzz of Halo MCC would continue on during the first half of this year -- Release dates are planned many months in advance.
Xbox One will have an onslaught of games during the second half of the year to the point in which I'm still trying to figure out how they will fit everything in so it will have a proper release and not get overshadowed.
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I'm thinking the same -- it will be the only way that the deal will make sense in my opinion. They got the deal to have something to compete with Uncharted 4 but at the same time they already have a decent amount of system selling games for that period (COD and Halo 5 alone). The Tomb Raider deal would go to waste if they don't make AC Unity like bundles for it IMO.
They could delay some to 1H16 and start spreading things out. Too late for first half this year though.
Not when it is common knowledge the game will also be arriving on the more popular/desirable console a little further down the line.
When I say non-event I mean I seriously - like seriously - doubt it's going to move enough consoles for MS to make any real noticeable difference. Particularly in Europe. Most people in Europe are simply going to wait for it to hit PS4/PS3.
I'm not referring to the game though - as I noted I think it will do well. I'm purely referring to it really making much difference to console sales. A normal, modest one week launch bump isn't anything of note with respect to helping MS and that's all I expect it do deliver.
That's my optimistic view BTW. If I look at it pessimistically it will turn out SE has hurt the reboot and stifles sales on PlayStation due to delay.
Even if it was full exclusive, I'll doubt it would have any major impact in continental Europe at this point.
Compounded by that Uncharted can easily satisfy that specific itch until Tomb Raider's exclusivity deal ends and you may have the perfect storm of poorer than expected sales.
McHuj
Member
Thanks. Has there been nothing on 3DS?
Common knowledge? I doubt the fact that the game will be an Xbox timed exclusive is common knowledge to the mainstream audience right now -- thinking many won't find out until around the time that game releases.
Edit: I see you are talking about Europe though... Maybe different there as the series is more popular in that territory.
Bananajama
Banned
There was enough of an uproar surrounding the game that I'd be surprised if it isn't by word of mouth when it eventually nears release date
i doubt people know about the exclusivity deal.
''not playing tomb raider on my playstation?are u crazy'' something like that
biglittleps
Member
SE won't can the franchise and they will launch definitive edition back to PS4/PC and continue the next game from here as multi.
EU is Sonyland and they already got even bigger game UC4, so i don't think people from EU will buy XB1 for this game and even many know that this is timed exclusive so they can get that game later down the line in PS4. Tomb raider going to make some difference only in NA for system purchases from Xbox fans.
Someone is going to say enough is enough with the bleeding of the money eventually.
I'm sure their intention originally was not to have to cut the price so much and offer all these fire sale type deals.
I would love to see the money spent/losses in an attempt to thwart Sony.
Money loss due to price cuts
Money loss due to Tomb Raider deal
Money loss due to giving away games with bundles
Money loss due to giving away LIVE..
Does that continue? I just picked up a Xbox 1 last Saturday , it came with two free Assassin's Creed games for $350. I much rather got a kinnect bundle for $350 but what are you going to do.
Facism
Member
my problem with the whole Tomb Raider thing is when it does come out, it'll likely be full price whilst the xbox version is enjoying discounts and used prices. I'll probably just give it a miss.
There was definitely uproar about it but I don't really think it's widely known that the game will be out first on Xbox (at least in America) -- the series isn't a current "system seller" in the same way as multiplats like COD are here. Hence why I feel that the game would need special XB1 bundles similar to AC Unity so that the deal doesn't go to waste.
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Yeah, that's how I feel.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
With Uncharted 4 releasing on PS4 around the same time and RotTR getting a PS4 release at some point in 2016 I don't see many people buying a whole new console for just one game.
The exclusivity moneyhat for RotTR is a waste of money for MS, it is not a franchise that will change perceptions of their console. One of the reasons it did so well on PS3 was because Uncharted as a franchise prepared the ground so well for action games among the user base. There are no major TPS/action game releases on XB1 to prepare the ground for RotTR like Uncharted on PS3.
If RotTR shifts significant hardware in Europe it will be a massive shock.
MS bought TR primarily for europe imo.
But at this point the console has the image of a worse PS4, most people don't know about fps or resolution but the know the PS4 is better at playing games. TR will bomb in europe, like SO and FH2 did.
Just looking at the german charts you could say it will be lucky to get into the top 10 (SO for example didn't) in week 1, especially if it hits in Q3/4. MS has given up outside the US/UK, you don't hear anything from the console except TV ads from retailers desperately trying to get rid of stock. MS just doesn't has a presence here anymore.
The only exclusive that would shift significant amount of XB1s would be GTA 6.
I think GAF often grossly underestimates general market awareness of trends or how it learns from past experience. I'd hesitate to speak to US but in Europe I'd expect bulk of market to either figure it'll come to later PS later 'cause in Europe the view is most MS exclusives are merely temporary or they'll go "what" close to launch when they see Xbox only and at that point they'll pick up message on the deal "having a duration".
The European market learnt last gen to buy it's preferred brand (PS) and be patient. As an aside that's part of the issue with MS strategy outside US. The market has learnt a behaviour that doesn't actually work in MS favour. IMHO MS really, really needs to invest in XB1 only full exclusives and make damn sure they stay on XB1 if it want's to have any hope of improving outside US.
Either way history indicates it's unlikely people are going to blindly assume TR is full exclusive and buy an Xbox for it so I think we're all talking around more unlikely options vs the likely option - it won't make much difference as a timed exclusive.
No way to be sure until after the fact of course.
JetSetRadio
Banned
Decent month for PS4.
I really only think the more hardcore gamers know about the deal. The friends that I have that know about the deal follow up on gaming news... People who mainly play COD and sports probably don't know anything about the deal right now.
This also impacts next-gen. Sony will want to make sure they never give MS a huge headstart again, because they know they have the brand value (very strongly outside of the US and at least decently in the US) to compete strongly head to head.
Conversely, I think MS' only option right now with any possible Xbox two would be to try and force a headstart - eg with stacked memory GPUs coming soon they could do a repeat of the 360 and short shift this generation.
But by any objective metric other than simply 'are we beating PS4', Xbox one is doing well, which would lend itself to not being cut short.
Tricky situation for MS really. They should probably ride it out and build value ready for next gen
Insane Metal
Member
Such low numbers... :|
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
January sales.
That's the crux of it more broadly. Personally I still see MS smuggling in consumer domain in terms of devices. Their DNA is so based on being market leader and having broad reach as a result.
The problem with devices is the market is dynamic and can switch quickly. Look at GameCube to Wii to Wii U or Xbox to 360 to XB1. Sonys probably had best run with PS1 to PS2 to PS3 but they had clear wobbles with PS3.
When their OS is on every PC by default irrespective of brand and their customers are really Samsung, Dell, etc they're fine but I still feel they clearly struggle with consumer electronics and how to sustain a brand directly with end consumers.
This gen I believe will see XB1 fail to match 360 and be a step back or two outside US. TBH UK aside I don't see any sign of much recovery from their shaky start outside US and I don't see their current policies helping much either.
But we'll see. In the end we always do.
Staggered launch could really hurt it though, look at Garden Warfare. I hope I'm wrong though.
I don't think Uncharted is the reason TR sold well on PS3, the vast majority of past TR's sales came from Playstation platforms, I think it sold best on PS3 because the franchise is popular in a territory that prefers Playstation.
Or maybe because it wasn't dudebro enough.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
I wonder if UBI Soft has been paying attention to the strong survival horror sales? Time to green light ZombiU 2 for multiplatform development.
Hydrargyrus
Member
People are talking about if TR would have an impact in european sales, but IMO, MS is in a situation where they should start thinking if even Halo 5 is going to make decent sales, after the MCC and the incredibly low image of Xbox brand at this moment in Europe
TR is bigger than Halo in EU afaik.
bequietdrive
Member
Not bad for the Wii U, just need a direct this month/next month to flesh out the Wii U release schedule after Mario Party.
Really need a GC remaster and Devil's Third to keep sales ticking over after Mario Party and Yoshi..
FalsettoVibe
Member
So last January I'm guessing PS4 was at about 240k
are developer, publisher will be happy for such a move. It takes around 2 years for the tool, engines to get upto date to the latest console tech and then they need to produce atleast couple of games to get the return on the investment. anything less than 5 yr is not viable for the developers, publishers and even customers i believe. until or unless you are like Nintendo and have your own games and IPs
Diprosalic
Banned
13 years and counting. seems like they don't care that much.
360 and PS3 so near. Look like both are collapsing. I thought PS3 will collapse much faster then 360
In europe? Nope.
TR is popular here, but not in a huge way. Way more series that are more popular
fifa
Diprosalic
Banned
it means we know the minimum amount of sales they achieved this year. last years numbers +1 unit.
If I understood correctlly:
It's the best January ever, so it sold a minimum of 140k units.
The have released their earnings report for last quarter.
Welfare
Member
271k actually.
Compared to last year, PS3 actually lost the most sales of the 2. However, it looks like the gap was the same (~5k) but actually in favor of the PS3.
michaelius
Banned
By objective metric they sold 10 or 11 milions of consoles with 1/3 of that in two initial launch months so they are on trajectory to get into 30-40 milions lifetime sales.
And they literally don't exist in markets with growth potential for next generations like Asia, Eastern Europe or Africa
Dragon Puncher
Member
26% more PS4s is a larger gap than I was expecting. If Sony can keep this up against a cheaper Xbox throughtout february, Microsoft is going to have a tough time winning in NA.
There's that but Uncharted helped carve a userbase that TR could sell to, another example is Rayman Legends(?) selling better on WiiU (iirc) because Super Mario U helped carve that particular userbase at launch.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Not surprising considering the ridiculous prices. I can use a new 360, but no fucking way am I paying $250.
If these were selling at $150 I think sales would be so much better.