Mass_Pincup
Banned
Physical only
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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Physical only
Welfare
Member
And nothing for Microsoft? In February, the PS4 has the Order, but this is also the first full non holiday month where the Xbox One is at $349.
Sony can get more sales, but that also doesn't stop Microsoft from being close to them.
So how do we know if Microsoft really won software sales?
Mass_Pincup
Banned
We don't. All we know is that MS sold the most physical software per console this month.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
Holy fucking hyperbole...
PanicFreak
Member
Tomb Raider will not be on the PS3. Just a hunch I had when reading your comment.
The rest is good though.
Unsurprising that Sony is back on top in terms of hardware sales once MS moved the price back up to $399. I'm waiting an extra month to see if Xbox and PS numbers even out once we've had a full month of data showing the comparison between X1 at $349 and PS4 at $399.
The biggest difference right now is Sony has The Order ready for February and Bloodborne in March. I'm not seeing anything real big coming out of Microsoft's camp that will help move consoles. If there is, feel free to correct me.
The biggest difference right now is Sony has The Order ready for February and Bloodborne in March. I'm not seeing anything real big coming out of Microsoft's camp that will help move consoles. If there is, feel free to correct me.
Screamride?
We have no idea if they are losing money. The division shows a positive gross margin. That is all we know.
Where do you get that the division was on chopping block? Not once have they said anything like that.
gamechanger87
Member
I don't see MS abandoning the Xbox any time soon. Its their flagship consumer product and is part of their overall market strategy. With the rollout of Hololens and the incorporation of W10 into the X1 they are in this for the long haul. MS may be losing money on the HW side, but internally I'm sure they are happy with the Gold subs and the licensing fees they receive from games. They are working towards cross platform play on PC and XB1 and are already working on incorporating Xbox into the W10 framework on the PC.
With W10, MS is finally getting their PC in the living room concept that they wanted years ago.
Begaria
Member
Keep in mind that this $349 price tag is a "promotion" and not a permanent price drop. I have this gut feeling that Microsoft is saying it's a promotion so they can pull out a permanent price drop of $299 later this year. It wouldn't make sense for Microsoft to say, "Well, that promotion we've been doing for $349? Congrats, it's now permanent! You can now buy the Xbox One for the same price you've already been paying for it."
Just remember that even small gaps add up. Microsoft managed to close that gap by about 550k~ units over the holidays in the US. Sony could easily claw that amount back over the next 9-10 months. They pretty much have the first half of the year in the bag (depending on how May goes with Witcher 3).
CosmicQueso
Member
Physical sales are still majority, and do allow for extrapolation to include digital.
We don't really know who "won" (both in the industry as well as here on boards) overall because it is not a meaningful thing to measure.
Night Angel
Member
The XB1 was cheaper for 2/3 of January and was outsold by 25%. No new games came out for the PS4. I haven't checked the monthly Amazon chart yet, but I get the distinct feeling that Sony are going to take Feb as well. I feel that the value proposition offered by the new PlayStation bundle is better than the $350 XB1, and I bet Feb sales will reflect that (not to mention that PS4 is getting a relatively high profile new IP this month).
I would have to agree that what we could call the major console game studios have now been defined. The rest are akin to mini-majors having only one or two really profitable properties. I do find the commentary on how these big console publishers generally avoid PC and mobile because they are platforms with lower barriers interesting though. Taking this idea to its logical extent, what is preventing one of the console makers... Let's say Nintendo, since they'd have the least to lose from peeving off the other major console game studios but this could also apply to either Sony or Microsoft as well, from lowering the barriers on their console to be on the level of barriers for Mobile or Steam? Or has that already happened with how supportive Nintendo and Sony have been to independent developers? Is part of the barrier with consoles and handhelds the fact that they are devices designed for gaming as opposed to the multipurpose PC and Mobile platforms?
CosmicQueso
Member
Guess its all relative. Both are moving hardware in the US at levels not seen in prior generations. Software also doing well for both, particularly when adding digital estimates.
Both are doing quite well in the US market.
Watching Amazon, PS4 was on top all of January. The Xbox One price drop did not seem to affect the PS4 at all. The gap got bigger in February with the bundling of The Last of Us and Shadow of Mordor. Sony will easily take February.
Wow, that's weird.
Today is the first I've heard of this game. While cool, not really sure that is the game that will bring a ton of new people to X1.
I thought the price rose right after the 1st of the year and then dropped again two weeks after that. Sony clearly has the leg up with more new IPs coming out of the gate in the next few months than X1, but after over a year of stellar sales for both companies, price is what will pull in the more casual crowd. Besides, more data > less data when making predictions on sales in future months.
you stated that if MS can keep it this close all year, well firstly that's implying losing 500k over the year is ok because MS are g'teed to outsell Sony by a similar margin during the holiday. Secondly, Sony have much more interesting titles coming out over the next few months vs MS so I expect the gaps to be bigger. Finally, you're assuming Sony won't drop the price.
gamechanger87
Member
Cosmic, you may have mentioned it in the past, but any indication of the digital/physical split so far this generation? I wouldn't be surprised to see the digital percentage increase M/M as both consoles make their stores a little more accessible.
I read this in Reggie's voice.
Nameless
Member
Thing is they don't have to do anything, and won't unless PS4 sales begin stagnate and fall behind. Best case scenario for Sony is they continue racking up these 50k-100k wins each month at $399, which would give them more than enough leeway to match MS' aggressive $299 w/games price point for the holidays.
MS couldn't couldn't give fuck all about the rest of the year(see XB1's release schedule), so I dont expect them to drop the price any further before then. Hell, technically $349 is still just as temporary sale price.
opticalmace
Member
What's wrong with you?
bitcloudrzr
Member
The PS4 was ahead of the XB1 5-10 spots, every day on Amazon after they dropped the price back to $349.
They are 9 ahead right now.
They are 9 ahead right now.
CosmicQueso
Member
Across the titles I've seen, day 1 can be as high as 70%/30% physical/digital, with sales settling longer term around 75/25 to 80/20. You're right though, that digital share is trending higher with each major release.
You're going to start seeing much more digital presell promotion, usually of bundled versions of the game with a dlc package at a slight discount with preload, etc.
Your thought is spot on from what I'm seeing. Digital adoption rates have been slightly stronger than any forecast I'd seen over the last few years and seem to be edging higher over time.
Xbox 360 will be the cheapest way to get the game though.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
.
Might not be I agree. At this point though looking at how many platforms TR reboot hit I'm assuming they're not going to waste the investment in the Nixxes 360 version by not porting it over to PS3.
Welfare
Member
People will still be buying 360's later this year? It's not the PS2 where people would rather buy that than the PS3. People will also be moving on from the 7th gen console.
Stilton Disco
Member
Ah, just the first month into PS4 getting back in the lead in sales, and already the XO fans are back to jumping through mental hoops to spin things in a way that will make their prefered console a legitimate competitor.
Not gonna lie, I genuinely missed this over Christmas.
Not gonna lie, I genuinely missed this over Christmas.
AngryNapkin
Banned
I'm not sure about the 360 but the PS3 has the Cell and I'd imagine they can't get it to the prices that the PS2 got to.
That's why I'm excited to see how low the PS4 gets to, if it can get to 99.99 and launch in the same amount of countries the Ps2 did it might go well over 100m.
As long as there are games still being released on the console that people want to play, the thing will sell. Plus, those more interested in a good deal over the latest and greatest when it comes to gaming will settle with a lower-cost console with a large library. It won't last near as long as the PS2 did, but then again the PS2 was a completely different beast in a completely different market landscape.
gamechanger87
Member
Awesome.
What is the market chatter on the resistance to digital? Is it the inability to re-sell games? Or is it pre-sale bonuses?
It seems like the digital presale DLC is the first step being taken to entice people to go digital, combined with the convenience of preloading.
Would a digital re-sale program work in any manner? The way I think about it, you could trade in your digital license for store credit at market prevailing prices (difficult to determine I know) and this credit can be used to buy other games or media. This would allow each of the consoles to keep the money spent off the secondary market, while enabling additional purchases (ie. licensing fees). If the gamer wants to play the game again, they must purchase it from the store (possible double dip). While there will be some people whom use it as a cheap rental, I would think the margin on the digital sale will help alleviate some of that.
I think the big concern would be around annoying the brick and mortar outlets, but I think pricing the digital resale at 5%-10% less may smooth it over a little.
Bruno MB
Member
It isn't even mediocre, it is poor. PS3 only sold less than 200k in January 2012, five years after the launch.
Now we have confirmation why Sony has been doing deals in February. I think they'll only drop the price in the second half of the year, though.
Based on the posted numbers:
PS4 and Xbox One have fallen behind PS2.
Great job with your charts!
How would this chart look like if we exclude the first 2 months of sales? For some reason it keeps coming to my mind those early Nintendo 3DS vs Nintendo DS comparisons. Especially when I see things like: "cumulative next-generation console sales are x% higher than the combined total of last-generation systems during the same timeframe."
Dirtyshubb
Member
Actually everything he said is true.
The original plan for the Xbox division was to spend a tonne of money on Xbox to get into the market and lose money, then to spend more on 360 but start to turn it around and by the time the third console comes out and be making lots of money and be the market leader.
What in reality happened was stage 1 went according to plan, then in stage 2 the RROD happened which put at least $1B dent into their plans, add in the fact that the Wii sold like crazy and even with a 1 year late start and $100 difference the PS3 still managed to sell just as well (technically better when launch aligned) as the 360 it pretty much ruined stage 2. They did start making money towards the end but that doesnt take into consideration how much they lost at the start of the 360 gen.
Of course now we are at stage 3, where they assumed they would come out and lead the market and make a tonne of money on each console. Instead they built a non-cost effective machine with an expensive Kinect that no one wanted and to top it off they basically gave this gen to Sony with their terrible plans at reveal. Now just over a year in they have removed the Kinect, sold next to nothing (In comparison) for 10 months of the year and for the 2 they did win they have to slash the cost, include 2/3 games and vouchers, plus Gold subscriptions.
Considering there was a lot of talk about getting rid of the Xbox division after the changeover at Microsoft, you add all this together and it could be bad but of course we dont know what will happen yet.
Same. Tbh I thought it was an Infamous sequel. I guess I'll...catch up on it now.
Okay then, how about metacritic scores? We can use the cut off of 90, which is the barrier for "universal acclaim."
EA on Wii: 2
EA on PS3/360: 4
Ubisoft on Wii: 1
Ubisoft on PS3/360: 2
ActivisionBlizzard on Wii: 0
ActivisionBlizzard on PS3/360: 2
Take 2 on Wii: 0
Take 2 on PS3/360: 4
Other third parties on Wii: 1
Other third parties on PS3/360: 16
Total for all on Wii: 4
Total for all on PS3/360: 26
This certainly doesn't seem like equivalently valuable support.
Now, I'm not a big believer in metacritic as a great metric for "quality," but you're sort of running me out of options. Apparently talking about top tier developers isn't a good metric; apparently R&D investment is not a good metric; so if this also isn't a good metric, I'm not sure what you want.
If you're saying "quality of support cannot be quantified," then I'm going to bristle at that. I've found that people are much more likely to reject all empirical data and suggest that you cannot quantify something when the empirical data doesn't support the argument they want to make.
Obviously I agree that not everything can be absolutely perfectly quantified, but that's very different than rejecting empirical data, and we have plenty to look at here, which almost universally leans in the same direction: the support for PS3/360 and Wii from third parties are not seem comparable. Money spent, known talent invested, critical reception of games, even popular reception of games based on user scores on metacritic -- all of this data hugely supports the notion that yes, the big four publishers did not back the Wii with the same amount or quality of effort as they did the PS3/360.
I also believe they anticipated Kinect to be the gateway into more lucrative targeted ads based on the kind of data it could collect about everyone it sees. Huge failure.
And before anyone suggests this is crazy: 1) look at your Facebook wall's ads; 2) explain why they almost sunk the whole ship over it; and 3) please point out a single One game released in the first 15 months that suggests they really looked at it as a gaming peripheral.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Double post
StrongBlackVine
Banned
If you want you want to play TR right away, but don't want the Xbox One it's a cheaper compromise. On Tomb Raider forums I have seen this line of thought. Some of the most passionate fans won't bite on this.
Not to mention the whole TV approach (itself flushed down the drain) with their own TV shows. They truly positioned it to be end-all-be-all conqueror of the living room.
They're not going to "figure out" something that doesn't benefit them.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Still nothing on 3DS and Vita? Poo, I need them to post a January tidbit.