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[kingkitty]

Haly seems like a very helpful guy. If he is mafia, that could be an issue. But I'm not totally on board with the Haly-evict train. I guess it depends on how mafia wants to play this. Why risk being the initiator? A homeless freakzilla is just as good as a homeless hippiehobo.

unless

1) Haly is a townie who thinks hippiehobo was suspicious.

2) Freakzilla and Haly is mafia. Because it's only a few votes for Freakzilla, Haly thinks there's still time to turn the attention away to someone else.

3) Freakzilla is a townie. And maybe mafia Haly knew Freakzilla had no special role, and would rather force the vote on someone else. Or that Haly knew/guessed hippiehobo had a special ability, and wanted to get him evicted.

My gut (which is 25 percent accurate) is leaning towards number 1. Seems risky to be the initiator this early on. Why not stand back, let someone else strike first blood, and then bandwagon?

kingkitty, just a FYI, but mafia roles with double voting powers is not unheard of, its actually fairly common in big games. BUT they are usually paired with a GOOD role that can double vote too.

That's interesting. We didn't have that role last game. But if we are to believe hippiehobo, he can only use his ability once. It seems a bit too limited for a mafia player.

hippiehobo is your role actually "Regular ol' towner folk"?

I know we can't quote from our role pms, but I don't think the rules forbid us to type our role name. Ultron claimed without hesitation that he was (supposedly) a Troublemaker. The secret is out at this point, so I don't get why hippiehobo can't spill the beans. Maybe as mafia he has to look up the internet for a less mafia sounding role?

 

[Timeaisis]

So Hobo is a power role...well then. Interesting turn of events. Useful roleclaim power, too. Kinda neat.

Anyway, Karkador has confirmed as much. Hobo has a role. As for him being one time use, well I think that's probably true. Why? Because he literally has no reason to lie about that. If he did, for instance, we'd immediately call him out on it and then...well lying is the #1 tell for mafia.

So, what do we know now? Hobo is a double voter, and he just used it. He can't use it again. Likely he used it not out of a really strong feeling against Haly, but to prove he's town.

If anything, I think this is our cue to unvote Hobo. Sure, he could *still* potentially be HHA, but it is less likely for an HHA to have that role. Also, even if he were, he'd be a useless regular non-power HHA now that he used his one-time ability.

So he was desperate not to die? Not really surprising. It seemed like the votes were piling on a little bit there.

As for Haly, I'll come clean finally with my suspicions. And this is no offense to either of you who I'm calling out here.

I think Haly and LaunchpadMcQ are the two most suspicious people right now? Why? Well I can't point to anything concrete, but they have been quick to jump from target to target. Mostly in the name of putting pressure on people, but it seems to me like they are jumping on people to see if they can start a bandwagon. So far they've been mostly unsuccessful, but it's been close.

Now, of course, that could be their play style, which is perfectly fine, of course. But for me, it is a little suspicious. Hobo may be new to this game, but I think his read of Haly is pretty sound. Not really ready to jump on that bandwagon yet, but I'm just being transparent here with my suspicions.

I'll read through this thread to see if I can come up with anything of interest and report back.

But our choice now, it seems, is whether or not we want to continue down the path of evicting Hobo or unvote him and take a step back. I think the second course of action is better considering the roleclaim Hobo just made (that was confirmed by Kark, no less).

Anyway, just some thoughts.

 

[Kevyt]

I'm leaning towards the first, followed closely by the second.

So, does this mean you can´t change your vote now, its used and that is it? You can´t unvote and save it for later?

I can change it and save it for a later date.

Other than that I'm just a regular townie.

 

[Timeaisis]

Furthermore, these were Karkador's posts following Hippie's premature Day 2 greeting:

I don't know about the rest of you, but if I was in Karkador's shoes I would be trying to cover for Hippiehobo because, as HHA, posting like it's Day when it's still Night is one of the biggest mistakes possible.

I believe he rushed the post out the door when he noticed Hippiehobo's mistake, and later cleaned it up. You'll notice an edit stamp on that post 3 hours after it originally went up. I looked at his history and outside of the posts where he keeps track of voting, he never edits himself. He's not a prolific editor like some other posters are. What did he edit in? I don't know. What's important is that Karkador, who usually thinks his game master posts through before posting them, threw up a post haphazardly immediately after a mistake by one of the players, and then felt like touching it up at a later date.

4) I do think Hippiehobo is a novice Mafia player, but I think he's also HHA as well. The role is likely more complex than he was prepared for when he signed up. He kept silent on Day 1 and observed and asked Karkador questions because he was unsure of what to do. He probably also interacted with the other HHA on their secret board, where they advised him to take a wait and see approach.

Day 2 came and everyone on the HHA board noticed his mistake. They told him he needs to defend himself or it'll get out of hand. This explains the uptick in activity. Ironically, his activity drew more unwanted attention. This is all in line with what I expect from a novice Mafia who hasn't really thought the game through.

The thing with mistakes is, an honest mistake is easily brushed off. There's no guilt, no pressure. But a mistake born of guilt creates tension and panic. I am a member of another community with Hippiehobo, and I have a mental profile of him. I don't tbelieve he's the kind of person to which guile comes naturally. So I'm categorizing his eccentricity on Day 2 as "panic", and attributing that "panic" to his mistake as an HHA member.

Honestly, I think this is a pretty weak argument against him. So he's new and didn't realize we couldn't talk at night? What does that prove? A regular townie could just as easily make that mistake. I also don't think we can really read too much into Karkador's editing of his posts. I doubt Karkador would try to cover for HHA, thus interfering with the game.

Haly seems like a very helpful guy. If he is mafia, that could be an issue. But I'm not totally on board with the Haly-evict train. I guess it depends on how mafia wants to play this. Why risk being the initiator? A homeless freakzilla is just as good as a homeless hippiehobo.

unless

1) Haly is a townie who thinks hippiehobo was suspicious.

2) Freakzilla and Haly is mafia. Because it's only a few votes for Freakzilla, Haly thinks there's still time to turn the attention away to someone else.

3) Freakzilla is a townie. And maybe mafia Haly knew Freakzilla had no special role, and would rather force the vote on someone else. Or that Haly knew/guessed hippiehobo had a special ability, and wanted to get him evicted.

My gut (which is 25 percent accurate) is leaning towards number 1. Seems risky to be the initiator this early on. Why not stand back, let someone else strike first blood, and then bandwagon?

These are really good points. #1 is most likely but #2 is worth remembering.

 

[Kevyt]

So Hobo is a power role...well then. Interesting turn of events. Useful roleclaim power, too. Kinda neat.

Anyway, Karkador has confirmed as much. Hobo has a role. As for him being one time use, well I think that's probably true. Why? Because he literally has no reason to lie about that. If he did, for instance, we'd immediately call him out on it and then...well lying is the #1 tell for mafia.

So, what do we know now? Hobo is a double voter, and he just used it. He can't use it again. Likely he used it not out of a really strong feeling against Haly, but to prove he's town.

If anything, I think this is our cue to unvote Hobo. Sure, he could *still* potentially be HHA, but it is less likely for an HHA to have that role. Also, even if he were, he'd be a useless regular non-power HHA now that he used his one-time ability.

So he was desperate not to die? Not really surprising. It seemed like the votes were piling on a little bit there.

As for Haly, I'll come clean finally with my suspicions. And this is no offense to either of you who I'm calling out here.

I think Haly and LaunchpadMcQ are the two most suspicious people right now? Why? Well I can't point to anything concrete, but they have been quick to jump from target to target. Mostly in the name of putting pressure on people, but it seems to me like they are jumping on people to see if they can start a bandwagon. So far they've been mostly unsuccessful, but it's been close.

Now, of course, that could be their play style, which is perfectly fine, of course. But for me, it is a little suspicious. Hobo may be new to this game, but I think his read of Haly is pretty sound. Not really ready to jump on that bandwagon yet, but I'm just being transparent here with my suspicions.

I'll read through this thread to see if I can come up with anything of interest and report back.

But our choice now, it seems, is whether or not we want to continue down the path of evicting Hobo or unvote him and take a step back. I think the second course of action is better considering the roleclaim Hobo just made (that was confirmed by Kark, no less).

Anyway, just some thoughts.

Yes, I've been suspicious of Launchpad too, but if RobotNinja is correct, it's unlikely for Mafia players to be very active considering they have their own means of communication and they could make mistakes. That makes me think that Haly and Launchpad are not HHA. But then again, for experienced players this wouldn't be an issue.

 

[SalvaPot]

Honestly, I think this is a pretty weak argument against him. So he's new and didn't realize we couldn't talk at night? What does that prove? A regular townie could just as easily make that mistake. I also don't think we can really read too much into Karkador's editing of his posts. I doubt Karkador would try to cover for HHA, thus interfering with the game.



These are really good points. #1 is most likely but #2 is worth remembering.

Well, Haly argument was solid before the revelation of hippiehobo´s role. Hell, even with the revelation I am not 100% sure hippie hobo is not HHA, we only know what his role is and how it can be useful to us for now.

 

[Kevyt]

Razmos also has a role guys and a cool ability. Let us not forget about him. He hasn't been very active which adds to the mystery.

We also know that HHA members have special abilities. Demolishing Tucah's house without making a sound or leaving any evidence behind? That's a pretty overpowered ability to use for HHA. I can only hope that such action is limited, as mine is. I think it would make sense for that ability to be a one time use considering that mine is.

 

[kingkitty]

Well, Haly argument was solid before the revelation of hippiehobo´s role. Hell, even with the revelation I am not 100% sure hippie hobo is not HHA, we only know what his role is and how it can be useful to us for now.

note we don't know what his role name is.

maybe his role is "super mafia double voter scum guy".

 

[Haly]

So he's new and didn't realize we couldn't talk at night? What does that prove? A regular townie could just as easily make that mistake.

@ (05-14-2015, 05:40 PM)

That's right!

Everyone, party at my house!

Everyone is welcome to bring friends, family members, significant and insignificant others!

There will be a sushi bar, a buffet, lots of food and music by a DJ. This is all in celebration of our beautiful town!

@ (05-14-2015, 05:49 PM)

No posting in the thread during the Night

@ (05-17-2015, 12:05 PM)

Good Morning everyone!

'Twas a long and fun night.

So no. I don't buy that he didn't know that we couldn't talk at night, because he was already confronted with the rules once when Day 1 first ended. Hell, that's not even my claim. My claim was that he thought Day 2 had begun before it did and, more importantly, did so despite being not a very active or enthusiastic player on Day 1.

Put yourself in his perspective. You are new to this game, and you got thrown into the HHA faction. You're excited to go through your first Night cycle. Everyone on the secret forum agreed to evict Tucah, because he was a very safe option who wouldn't trip off anyone's alarm bells. In the same manner as the thread, once Tucah got the majority vote or unanimous vote or whatever the requirements, Karkador closes the vote and calls the end of Night.

After which you immediately go to the GAF thread to greet Day 2. Woops, Karkador didn't officially begin Day 2 yet. Panic! Better make some noise to throw people off your trail.

This is the narrative I'm going with.

Now, because no one seems to be making a real effort to defend Hippiehobo, let me show you how I would do it.

Going by his posting history, he goes to bed at roughly 22:00 to 2:00 the next day, and wakes up around 10:00 to 12:00. This is all in EST because that's my time-zone as well, so we can safely say he lives on the East Coast.

So, it's feasible that he woke up around that time, remembered that night should be coming to an end sometime around May 17, and decided to post in the thread while he was still groggy from waking up and didn't care to double check Karkador's countdowns.

(It still doesn't explain, at least to me, his sudden enthusiasm for the game that the first thing he thinks of after waking up is to post in this thread greeting Day 2.)

 

[SalvaPot]

Razmos also has a role guys and a cool ability. Let us not forget about him. He hasn't been very active which adds to the mystery.

We also know that HHA members have special abilities. Demolishing Tucah's house without making a sound or leaving any evidence behind? That's a pretty overpowered ability to use for HHA. I can only hope that such action is limited, as mine is. I think it would make sense for that ability to be a one time use considering that mine is.

Huh... now that you mention it...

What if demolishing a house is also a One time ability? So far there is a running theme in all abilities: Limitation. Either by day (Tucah´s ability to hide himself once every two days), space (Razmos claimed abilitie that can only go one square in all directions), or voting (HippieHobo´s ability, but this one seems more classic than the others, the only unusual thing about his ability is that is also, you guessed it, limited for a one use only) So I do think demolishing was a one time ability and, maybe, not something made by HHA but by a third party or even a misguided town

If this is true, then we can assume that most power roles are limited. Going by this train of logic, I have a new theory:

Some villagers can HEAR if something suspicious happens around their house. This is why the village is setup as it is, with neighbors. How exactly it works I do not know, it can be an ability some villagers have that make them alert of what is happening around them, maybe they can pick a house around them to "peek at" and see if something suspicious happens there.

And this brings me to Razmos ability: Gossip. Why would this be useful? Why would you need a role that can work at night? It is to have a network that can talk at night an plan against the HHA or get information from people who might be HHA too.

The game really is about location and neighbors. There is 23 players, and its safe to assume there has to be between 4 and 7 "bad roles", be it HHA or a third party. Going just by map location, Freakzilla is actually "trapped", with two banks of water limiting him, and the roomates are so too. This was on purpose, but why?

The other limited users are Haly, Kalor, Darryl, Robo Ninja, SmokingGun, Coppanova and HippieHobo. What do they all have in common? They have been by far the most active except smokinggun, and only hippie had to be called out to actually act.

The other side, the ones with actual frontiers, are everyone else: Kingkitty, salvapot, Mazre, Hobohodo, Razmos, Tomakasatnav, Tucah, Timeaisis, Ourobolus, Foshy, 21GunShow, nin1000, Coppanuva and LaunchpadMcQ.

So here is my final theory: One of this sides is heavily populated by anti towns. Its too early to say what side, but just by my gut and some logic alone, chances are higher to get a HHA if we go with the second, bigger side, specially if we go closer to the first victim, tucah.

 

[SalvaPot]

And to illustrate:

The first side has 2 neighbors, the second side have 3. No exceptions.

Tomakasatnav and Foshy (And freak) are now my prime suspects.

 

[Darryl]

When Launchpad asked for us to make lists of people we thought were town/HHA and rank them, I thought it was only going to give too much information to the HHA. But on the list I personally made, I had put both Haly and HippieHobo at the top of the people most likely to be townies. I only voted for Hippie because I was going with the crowd.

 

[Karkador]

I started the game a few hours early this round, but it wasn't out of any sort of panic or cover-up. I had time to do the update at the moment, and I figured it wouldn't hurt anyone at that particular time if I started it 3 hours early. Hobo breaking the no-talking rule really was just a coincidence.

I really can't get involved in the discussion, so please don't take this as commentary on anything other than the specific argument that I did something to cover for HippieHobo.

 

[SalvaPot]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx0zW3MkaA0

And now that I think about it...

Realistically...

HHA just can´t be limited to one space, since later on that would make the game unwinnable to them.

The range has to be of at least 3.

Like this:

 

[SalvaPot]

(and that last one is a mock-up, it can pretty much go in any direction and with a few other combinations)

 

[Haly]

Oh and one more thing. Not everyone gets the implications of Hippiehobo's ability. And I didn't really get it myself until I read about it.

Assume:
There are 2 Town and 2 Mafia left.
There are no special roles left.

The Mafia control 50% of the daytime votes and Town 50%. Town has already lost in this case, because they can never get a plurality of votes necessary to lynch a player. Day will end and when Night begins, Mafia kills any of the Town, and this cycle repeats. until only Mafia are left.

Now, assume:
There are 3 Town and 2 Mafia left.
There are no special roles left.

Town controls 60% of the vote and Mafia 40%. Town can still win this game, as long as they don't mislynch any more townies.

Lastly, assume:
There are 3 Town and 2 Mafia left.
One Mafia has [Double Voter].

Mafia actually controls 50% of the vote in this case, and Town loses. Mafia forces a no lynch during the day, and then kills another Townie during the night, and they'll wind up in the very first game state that's unwinnable for Town.

"But what if there are 2 Town and 2 Mafia left and one of the Town is a [Double Voter]?"

That will never happen because Mafia will identify and kill the double voter before this state is ever reached. Alternatively, in the case of single shot double voting, they can manipulate the double voter to using up their ability and then all the previous cases hold true once again and it's no longer a threat.

TL;DR: For us, Hippiehobo's Double Voting does almost nothing. But for HHA, it is a very valuable asset. If Hippiehobo is HHA, he can force endgame (unwinnable states for Town) one cycle earlier than Town suspects. If Hippiehobo is Town, he can be manipulated into using up his Double Vote to overturn an eviction that would've been tied with another, or force a tie if one side nominee has one less vote than the other.

So, even if you guys don't want to evict Hippiehobo at this very moment, his is not an ability you can leave around for long because it's a much greater threat to Town than it is to the HHA, regardless of Hippiehobo's allegience.

 

[SalvaPot]

Hell, I think a range of two can work too, but that would leave the mafia at a disadvantage if they lose members soon enough.

Also lets not discard a role that could kill anyone on the town no matter the range.

 

[Haly]

I started the game a few hours early this round, but it wasn't out of any sort of panic or cover-up. I had time to do the update at the moment, and I figured it wouldn't hurt anyone at that particular time if I started it 3 hours early. Hobo breaking the no-talking rule really was just a coincidence.

Well. Fine. Maybe I was getting too paranoid.

 

[Hobohodo]

So before I go and catch up after waking up, can I just say that shortening HippieHobo to Hobo has kept making me check the context of which Hobo everyone is on about.

 

[tomakasatnav]

I know there are issues with HHA having limited range (for example, not being able to kill off certain people etc, but I'm sure there's something in place to prevent that) but I'm still in the mind that there's ranges due to the map.

Looking at the map with this in mind. Tucah was a red herring for someone listening, so I expect there's HHA in the same range. Without Tucah / with his role now known, kills might not through this HHA member so as to prevent them getting caught? Animated GIF! (Hard G)

Taking Razmos' supposed range of left right up down neighbours, we would get yellow.

I think diagonals are in play, due to freakzillas/ the housemates positioning on the map with the river, which gives us pink.

Think we need to go for someone from that square? (Which I realise includes me!)

 

[Haly]

Disagree. There are no diagonals in this game I am very confident in this assessment and it's precisely because of freak's position relative to the roommates. Note how thin the river is between them but there is no bridge. All the bridges are vertical or horizontal, and this is no coincidence. Karkador made it a big deal that the bridges indicate two squares are adjacent.

The bridges are only there to imply that the two squares are adjacent despite the river being there

Thus far, multiple people have come forth claiming roles that operate up-down-left-right, but not a single one claimed diagonal operation.

 

[Haly]

Also, I didn't realize this before but the map is mirrored across the x = -y line. I'm not sure what this means, but if the HHA do turn out to have range limitations, I think we should look at people along the diagonal (yes I know this includes me) and people who are mirrored across each other.

 

[Hobohodo]

So now that I've caught up we seem to possibly be looking at a Haly/Hippiehobo vote. Out of those two my gut instinct is to trust Haly more.

For one he has consistantly kept the ball rolling through these lulls. Now as Timeasis said we could see this as them throwing out a lot of claims to try and form a bandwagon, but judging from the game we have got going here this is what's needed to get us talking, so at this stage I don't really hold that against him. The well reasoned posts, such as the breakdown of why this double vote ability matters, probably help here as well. Main thing with Haly I don't agree with is the idea that Karkador ended the night early to cover something up, feels like we would be reaching a bit there.

Whilst I don't find anything odd about Karkador ending the night early it does seem surprising that Hippiehobo would post before the night ends after already being told once that he couldn't post at night. He was also well aware of this fact as he commented about it in the general Mafia thread we have in off topic, so he can't claim ignorance there. Then as has already been brought up by a bunch of us he is surprised by what are common occurrences in a mafia game, that even a first timer should be aware off. I had actually forgotten about him being surprised that the HHA evicted someone at night till Coppanuva mentioned it, I mean what do you think the purpose of the night phase was if that surprised you?

Now the double vote ability does throw a spanner in here. It's not a roll I've encountered before and initially I considered it to powerful to give to a member of the HHA but then SalvaPot said it's not unheard of though would probably be paired with a town double voter. Regardless of this, if I was forced to vote right now it would probably be Hippiehobo still as he has seemed a bit erratic since the start (his day 1 posts were just 'in character' jokes even when everyone else had gone on to discussing who to evict) and then we have the mistakes and claiming to not understand the fundamentals which has become apparent in day 2. Not going to go for it just yet however as there is still plenty of time.

 

[Razmos]

Razmos also has a role guys and a cool ability. Let us not forget about him. He hasn't been very active which adds to the mystery.

We also know that HHA members have special abilities. Demolishing Tucah's house without making a sound or leaving any evidence behind? That's a pretty overpowered ability to use for HHA. I can only hope that such action is limited, as mine is. I think it would make sense for that ability to be a one time use considering that mine is.

I haven't been very active because I'm on holiday and have limited WiFi access. I revealed my role partly due to this, so that I wouldn't be seen as inactive, and to give people something to talk about. I haven't done my day action yet either.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

Welp. Decent chunk of stuff happened when I was asleep/working and not at lunch.

I'll go over it again later when I have more time (probably like 8, 9 hours, going to see Mad Max straight after work), but the HippieHobo role is interesting. Very interesting...

 

[Ourobolus]

Never fails. I go to bed and the thread explodes. Time to catch up and gather my thoughts.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

So, confession time. My post asking for regular villagers was a sort of trap. I'll explain.

My original intent was to have as many people come out as regular villagers as possible. That wasn't to oust any special roles, it was to make a viable pool of candidates for suspicions or even random voting: these supposed ordinary villagers. My reasoning behind this was:

1) If an HHA member were to role claim, the standard way to do this and not complicate their lives too much is to just claim to be a regular villager without any powers. Statistically, there has to be at least one HHA member among the ordinary villagers because it's the easiest role claim rather than having to create some elaborate role which could backfire if the details don't mesh with the game. At least so far, all of the specials have had roles that makes sense with the game and don't contradict themselves (except maybe Ultron).

2) If it comes down to random voting, regular villagers are much more expendable than any of the other roles in this game. Plus, with the above, it reduces the pool of voting and having a major casualty.

By the by, here are my lists so far (could have missed a role claim):

Regular Townie
LaunchpadMcQ
freakzilla149
Tamo
RobotNinja
SalvaPot
21GunShow
Haly

Special Roles
Mazre (vague)
Razmos (Town Gossip)
Ultron (Troublemaker)
francomp (vague)
Kalor (vague)
foshy (vague)
HippieHobo (vague)

No roles claimed
kingkitty
Ourobolous
Darryl
Hobohodo
Timeaisis
SmokinGunZ198 (his inactivity since before night phase started leads me to believe he's an ordinary villager)
Nin1000
Coppanuva

So, my original plan was to throw us regular townies collectively under the bus for suspicions and reduce the pool of suspects somewhat. Heck, I would be ok with throwing myself down if it came down to a random vote, if only because I think it would help narrow down suspects.

But then this happened...

but it also makes it easier for the mafia to pinpoint who has a special role.

Which is the kind of response that I expected from a town-aligned person, a special role in fact since he wants to cover his own ass, and something I was hoping would happen. I would have expected that to deter most all town-aligned players because kingkitty was right; we start breaking down roles, it helps the HHA more than it does us. But, almost an hour later...

You can add me to that list.

Originally, considering how much he typed, I thought he might not have seen kingkitty's post. But, the timestamp of his post tells me he probably did see the post before writing his. Considering how this puts the special roles at risk, I wouldn't think anyone who was truly town-aligned would want to dwindle down the numbers and get a full count, yet we have this. Either he's a townie who doesn't care, or he's an HHA who doesn't care.

On top of everything that's been post about him, I've been wondering why he's been above suspicion up until now. Sure, he's fairly active, but that's gotten me some attention personally. Unless, of course, you've got 3 other players in your pocket to draw attention away from you...

VOTE: Haly

 

[Kevyt]

@ (05-14-2015, 05:40 PM)


@ (05-14-2015, 05:49 PM)


@ (05-17-2015, 12:05 PM)


So no. I don't buy that he didn't know that we couldn't talk at night, because he was already confronted with the rules once when Day 1 first ended. Hell, that's not even my claim. My claim was that he thought Day 2 had begun before it did and, more importantly, did so despite being not a very active or enthusiastic player on Day 1.

Put yourself in his perspective. You are new to this game, and you got thrown into the HHA faction. You're excited to go through your first Night cycle. Everyone on the secret forum agreed to evict Tucah, because he was a very safe option who wouldn't trip off anyone's alarm bells. In the same manner as the thread, once Tucah got the majority vote or unanimous vote or whatever the requirements, Karkador closes the vote and calls the end of Night.

After which you immediately go to the GAF thread to greet Day 2. Woops, Karkador didn't officially begin Day 2 yet. Panic! Better make some noise to throw people off your trail.

This is the narrative I'm going with.

Now, because no one seems to be making a real effort to defend Hippiehobo, let me show you how I would do it.

Going by his posting history, he goes to bed at roughly 22:00 to 2:00 the next day, and wakes up around 10:00 to 12:00. This is all in EST because that's my time-zone as well, so we can safely say he lives on the East Coast.

So, it's feasible that he woke up around that time, remembered that night should be coming to an end sometime around May 17, and decided to post in the thread while he was still groggy from waking up and didn't care to double check Karkador's countdowns.

(It still doesn't explain, at least to me, his sudden enthusiasm for the game that the first thing he thinks of after waking up is to post in this thread greeting Day 2.)

Actually when I posted that it was afternoon already. I didn't check the time for when Day 2 would begin, I simply saw May 17.

Well I don't know what to think anymore, maybe you aren't HHA.

For the last time I'm not HHA, but...

Oh and one more thing. Not everyone gets the implications of Hippiehobo's ability. And I didn't really get it myself until I read about it.

Assume:
There are 2 Town and 2 Mafia left.
There are no special roles left.

The Mafia control 50% of the daytime votes and Town 50%. Town has already lost in this case, because they can never get a plurality of votes necessary to lynch a player. Day will end and when Night begins, Mafia kills any of the Town, and this cycle repeats. until only Mafia are left.

Now, assume:
There are 3 Town and 2 Mafia left.
There are no special roles left.

Town controls 60% of the vote and Mafia 40%. Town can still win this game, as long as they don't mislynch any more townies.

Lastly, assume:
There are 3 Town and 2 Mafia left.
One Mafia has [Double Voter].

Mafia actually controls 50% of the vote in this case, and Town loses. Mafia forces a no lynch during the day, and then kills another Townie during the night, and they'll wind up in the very first game state that's unwinnable for Town.

"But what if there are 2 Town and 2 Mafia left and one of the Town is a [Double Voter]?"

That will never happen because Mafia will identify and kill the double voter before this state is ever reached. Alternatively, in the case of single shot double voting, they can manipulate the double voter to using up their ability and then all the previous cases hold true once again and it's no longer a threat.

TL;DR: For us, Hippiehobo's Double Voting does almost nothing. But for HHA, it is a very valuable asset. If Hippiehobo is HHA, he can force endgame (unwinnable states for Town) one cycle earlier than Town suspects. If Hippiehobo is Town, he can be manipulated into using up his Double Vote to overturn an eviction that would've been tied with another, or force a tie if one side nominee has one less vote than the other.

So, even if you guys don't want to evict Hippiehobo at this very moment, his is not an ability you can leave around for long because it's a much greater threat to Town than it is to the HHA, regardless of Hippiehobo's allegience.

Well if you believe that evicting me is the best for the town then go ahead and do it. After all, all I care for is for the town to win. That's the best reasoning so far for my eviction.

In the meantime, Unvote: Haly

I don't have any leads, I have no idea who is HHA. Only gut suspicions, but I'm wrong like 99% of the time.

 

[Timeaisis]

TL;DR: For us, Hippiehobo's Double Voting does almost nothing. But for HHA, it is a very valuable asset. If Hippiehobo is HHA, he can force endgame (unwinnable states for Town) one cycle earlier than Town suspects. If Hippiehobo is Town, he can be manipulated into using up his Double Vote to overturn an eviction that would've been tied with another, or force a tie if one side nominee has one less vote than the other.

Well, you're right. His double voting doesn't do much for the town. But that hardly matters. There are plenty of roles alter the game without necessarily helping or harming the town. His double vote, as far as I can tell...and now I'm getting into a game design discussion here, which honestly, I'm not too fond of considering.

His double vote allows him to:
1) Have a greater say over any days eviction, at will
2) Have an "out" with a higher probability role claim (this is what he just used it to do)

We've seen Hobo use his power for the express purpose of proving he is not a regular townie after being voted for. He's now trying to sway the vote onto who he thinks is suspect (you). This action isn't necessarily scummy, it's just one out of defense. I don't see how we can use this information to decide if Hobo is town or scum. He would would have taken the same course of action either way.

If he is HHA, yes, it's a very powerful role. But, again, we don't have a reason to suspect that he is HHA over town.

As for the concern that he will be "manipulated" into swinging the vote if he is town. Sure, but he can be manipulated by town OR HHA, so it's doesn't lean one way or another.

So, even if you guys don't want to evict Hippiehobo at this very moment, his is not an ability you can leave around for long because it's a much greater threat to Town than it is to the HHA, regardless of Hippiehobo's allegience.

Again, I don't see this at all. I see it as an ability that has the potential to alter the game, sure, but not necessarily in favor of any one side. The town, for example, can use Hobo to put pressure on someone in the future. In essence, we have to appeal to Hobo's reason frequently to win his double vote. Does this change the dynamic of the game? Of course. Does it mean that town are at risk? No. It's just as dangerous to HHA.

 

[Ourobolus]

Man, that's a lot of back and forth over the night. I was originally leaning towards Hippiehobo, but that double vote roleclaim...urgh. That's pretty powerful. I agree with the discussion revolving around its usefulness though - it could easily be used for either side. On the other hand, Hippiehobo stated it was a one-shot deal, so it may prove to be rather benign in the long run, unless he finds a strategically important time to use it.

I don't have enough information to decide whether or not he's a townie or HHA, but he did roleclaim out of defense towards Haly's barrage of accusations (and I don't blame him). That leads me to believe he's a townie, but that also potentially put a giant target on his back, so maybe he believes he wouldn't be targeted by HHA because he is HHA? It seems like a stretch, but it's something to consider.

Other than that, I don't feel like we've really gained any new, concrete information. Razmos's role is still up for suspicion, and while I can kinda understand what Launchpad was trying to do with his "census," it's still a little weird just blatantly asking for information like that which, as kingkitty mentioned, could potentially be of high-value to the HHA.

As for Haly...I still have no idea. On one hand his paranoia regarding the timing of Hippiehobo's posts seemed like reaching and desperation, but on the other hand, Hippiehobo was acting a little odd (whether out of ignorance or an accident) for a bit there, so I can kinda see where he was coming from.

I'll stew for a bit before making a decision though. This day has been weird.

 

[Haly]

Why would you need Hippiehobo's double voting to put pressure on a townie? Look back to all the pressuring around Day 1 and 2. Until attention fell on him, we were fine pressuring town by ourselves. We have an overwhelming majority, Hippiehobo getting two votes isn't going to swing anything while we have that majority.

His ability only comes into play when there are very few players left and every vote counts. For the time being, his power is almost totally useless.

This is not about whether he is likely to be Town or HHA depending on his double voting status. But that it is far, far worse for Town if he does happen to be an HHA than if he is Town. Even without evicting him, we'll want him to use up his Double Vote ASAP. So it can't be turned against us. How many times do I have to repeat this. He can force an unwinnable state for Town. He can never do anything remotely close to that for HHA. The power imbalance should be obvious here.

We're talking about an ability that is potentially game winning on one side and is a minor consideration on the other. If there's any chance that it could be used against the HHA, the HHA will take out Hippiehobo during a night cycle and it's suddenly a non-issue for them!

Honestly, tell me this, what do you need to vote for an eviction. For a [Cop] to reveal himself and systematically investigate each and one of us? For Karkador to draw a giant glowing neon sign over someone's house that says "HHA here"? You're not a novice player, that much I know, but you're taking an overly cautious approach that doesn't align with someone who has played Mafia before.

Originally, considering how much he typed, I thought he might not have seen kingkitty's post. But, the timestamp of his post tells me he probably did see the post before writing his. Considering how this puts the special roles at risk, I wouldn't think anyone who was truly town-aligned would want to dwindle down the numbers and get a full count, yet we have this. Either he's a townie who doesn't care, or he's an HHA who doesn't care.

I begin posts much earlier than I plan to post them. Against my better judgement, I write up these posts within the GAF site than in another application like Notepad or Word. That particular post took more than an hour to write as I collected my thoughts and double and triple checked my notes and Hippiehobo's posting history.

All that said, I knew what you were doing and I don't really care. If you haven't noticed, I have no problem sticking my neck out if it means getting more information out of people. And if you're wondering why suspicion doesn't fall on me, it's because I'm so completely brazen that it's unthinkable I'd be HHA and put myself at risk like this. Funny how that works isn't it? Of course now that I've tipped my hand people will be more suspicious of me now but, again, I don't really care.

Well if you believe that evicting me is the best for the town then go ahead and do it. After all, all I care for is for the town to win. That's the best reasoning so far for my eviction.

I have my doubts, but in lieu of a superior candidate I'm going to stay with you. It's nothing personal but you've raised too many red flags to be easily ignored.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

All that said, I knew what you were doing and I don't really care. If you haven't noticed, I have no problem sticking my neck out if it means getting more information out of people. And if you're wondering why suspicion doesn't fall on me, it's because I'm so completely brazen that it's unthinkable I'd be HHA and put myself at risk like this. Funny how that works isn't it? Of course now that I've tipped my hand people will be more suspicious of me now but, again, I don't really care.

Your description of your behavior has reaffirmed my suspicions. Even if you didn't see kingkitty's post, you saw what I was doing and didn't point it out? That's a rather strange decision.

I'm sticking to the ordinary villagers being the most suspicious lot to start picking off. We've established ourselves as having nothing to lose already, it's time to put our money where our mouth is. My gut, on top of what's been discussed already by others, is telling me it's Haly.

I'm not afraid to put myself out there, but I think the way you described yourself is far too brazen an attempt to push attention away from yourself.

 

[Haly]

Even if you didn't see kingkitty's post, you saw what I was doing and didn't point it out? That's a rather strange decision.

Not very strange at all. You simply need to see it from my perspective.

1) You are suspicious, have been since Day 1. You have consistently singled people out, but never actually made the effort starting a vote. You were always behind, egging people on and then joining in when you see a vote gain traction.

Strike one.

2) You put out an obvious baiting post to single out regular Townies. You claim this is for the Town's benefit by creating candidates for random voting, but as kingkitty pointed out, this information can easily be used by the HHA to pick targets as well. You are once again throwing suspicion around without ever actually backing it up with a vote. And if it creates a lynch for the HHA, all the better (assuming you're HHA).

I think if you're clever enough to start a gambit like this you would be aware of the implications. If you truly only thought as far as "I'm going to set a trap for those sneaky HHA", then I've drastically overestimated your abilities.

One of the things about being Mafia is that generally they don't want to be the one that starts votes because it gets very hairy for them once everyone realizes they were fooled. That's why they are usually votes #2+. For Town, well, it comes down to how brave they're feeling and how much stock they place in their gut feeling. A Townie risking his neck is much less damaging to Town than a Mafia risking his neck is to the Mafia.

Strike two.

3) I'm supremely confident that there is an HHA among the roomies, and I think it is francorp. Ultron came clean with his [Troublemaker]. If he really is HHA, then I applaud his audacity because it worked. It shifted all my attention to his roommate, francorp, who is very shifty in comparison to the forthright and noble Ultron.

And as I've said previously, there is no point in lynching an almost confirmed HHA. It's much better to keep them around and wait for them to trip up. The HHA don't have any increased strength in numbers, I think. That is, two HHA voting for a killing is no different than one HHA voting for an eviction. They might have roles, sure, but unless their roles involve multiple evictions per night, it hardly matters if we evict francorp now or later.

Eliminating all the HHA is a victory condition, but it's not necessary for achieving a soft victory. That is, a victory that's all but assured when every step towards fulfilling the victory conditions is simply busywork, like in a Civ game.

So what does francorps suspicion have to do with you. Well..

Your initial reaction to evicting the roomies. Totally understandable.

Problem is we run the risk of evicting a special role which could be protected for a prolonged portion of the game if the other one is a mafia member. We may get a mafia, or we may sack a cop, or both. It's a tough call.

Then you flip here, when I posted the numbers on why we should evict roomie. Again, understandable.

Then maybe we should evict the roomies. There's a higher chance we'd evict a mafia if we did that, even if we lose an ordinary villager or special role. Moreover, just the act of removing a villager at this point creates more information if their role is revealed upon their eviction or even just by reducing the amount of players.

The stuff with ultron happens but then...

I don't think I want fran revealing his role just yet. We know enough about Ultron that we shouldn't be evicting that square over any other square. As far as we're concerned, fran's got as much chance of being a townie as anyone else.

You began to deflect from francorp. In between agreeing with my numbers and changing your mind, you never actually voted for the roomies and once Ultron's [Troublemaker] came to light (and his claimed Town status), you suddenly became very reluctant to point any fingers at francorp when the opposite should've happened.

So that's strike three.

Now, why didn't I call you out? Well, I was suspicious, sure, but I think my approach to the problem of francorp should be evidence enough that I don't mind HHA staying in the game, so long as I get to observe their actions. That is the approach I was taking with you. If I put the heat on you earlier, you might've been reluctant to be as bold, less likely to trip up. And I also had less material to work with then than I do now. But after the baiting post, and now that you've confronted me, I am obligated to return the attention in kind.

 

[SalvaPot]

Hey Karkador, if we evict a HHA, does the full role is revealed, included the range of their power?

If so, I think maybe it is time to evict the roomies, we are running in interpretations and theories with almost no way to back them up, like, at all.

Even if both are Townies their info will prove valuable, and chances are one is bad for town.

 

[franconp]

As I said before I'm town and I have a way to prove it. It's not an easy way and I'd rather not do it at this point in the game but if it's necessary I can do it.

 

[Timeaisis]

Why would you need Hippiehobo's double voting to put pressure on a townie? Look back to all the pressuring around Day 1 and 2. Until attention fell on him, we were fine pressuring town by ourselves. We have an overwhelming majority, Hippiehobo getting two votes isn't going to swing anything while we have that majority.

His ability only comes into play when there are very few players left and every vote counts. For the time being, his power is almost totally useless.

This is not about whether he is likely to be Town or HHA depending on his double voting status. But that it is far, far worse for Town if he does happen to be an HHA than if he is Town. Even without evicting him, we'll want him to use up his Double Vote ASAP. So it can't be turned against us. How many times do I have to repeat this. He can force an unwinnable state for Town. He can never do anything remotely close to that for HHA. The power imbalance should be obvious here.

We're talking about an ability that is potentially game winning on one side and is a minor consideration on the other. If there's any chance that it could be used against the HHA, the HHA will take out Hippiehobo during a night cycle and it's suddenly a non-issue for them!

So, then. What's the harm waiting? If HHA takes him out tonight because they assume he's a threat, so be it. If not, we can always vote to evict him afterwards. He presents no immediate threat to us, as we have the numbers to trounce any vote shenanigans.

Also, your argument against him continues to be, by my estimation, immaterial. Analyzing his post times and the intent (or lack thereof) behind his posts and not the content within them isn't a path I find very useful.

Honestly, tell me this, what do you need to vote for an eviction. For a [Cop] to reveal himself and systematically investigate each and one of us? For Karkador to draw a giant glowing neon sign over someone's house that says "HHA here"? You're not a novice player, that much I know, but you're taking an overly cautious approach that doesn't align with someone who has played Mafia before.

No, I just need someone to needlessly fixate on an individual player to the point of insanity.

VOTE: Haly

 

[nin1000]

awesome post by Haly

Holy Hell Haly impressive post as most if not everything in it makes sense and makes hopefully everyone in this game think
As we are now less than 24hours away from the day to end we now have to start voting soon. Shitty situation but one or another we have to do it, even with the posibility that we might kill a townie.

 

[Haly]

So, then. What's the harm waiting? If HHA takes him out tonight because they assume he's a threat, so be it. If not, we can always vote to evict him afterwards.

I'm tired of being a broken track record.

We need an eviction on Day 2 because we need to confirm if every eviction ends the same, with the destruction of a house or if there's another mechanic in play. Get this through your head already. I was hoping the freakzilla train would go through but that petered out and we're on the verge of another Day with no eviction. A lull settled in, no one seemed interested in playing this game anymore, so I took it upon myself to start another eviction vote.

But it had the unintended consequence of drawing unwanted attention. Fine, whatever, I have little desire to play as part of a Town that does absolutely nothing. I just hope my eviction turns up something useful.

 

[nin1000]

Well i just now read through your post Timeasis , bad timing but here it goes.
For his defense thought he did not only fixiate on hobo as he did on launchpad in his last post

 

[Karkador]

Hey Karkador, if we evict a HHA, does the full role is revealed, included the range of their power?

Anyone who is eliminated from the game (whether its by day or night) will have their full role revealed.

 

[SalvaPot]

Anyone who is eliminated from the game (whether its by day or night) will have their full role revealed.

Ok, with this and all previous info.. I think I will stick to my first guess and say freakzilla is the most suspect, I made my mind and I won´t change my vote unless it is needed for a swing vote or if we get overwhelming information.

Works for me, Freakzilla seems like the best choice so far and he has yet to speak up. Lets get started then:

VOTE: freakzilla149

Also, Tomakasatnav has been really inactive and I really can´t shake the feeling he is HHA.

 

[ultron87]

I agree with Haly's analysis of HippieHobo. Lots of leaning on "I dunno, I'm new!" and some suspicious behavior. As a power, a potential double vote can probably be used by HHA easier than by town, since they naturally have less votes to go around.

I'm not really one to do big long "analyze every word" posts, since the actual words put in post by post are very unlikely to tell us much from the liars. It is too easy to revise and rewrite what you say to expect to catch someone out purely from their banter. So I usually mostly pay attention to actual game actions played and concrete info provided. We don't have a ton yet.

Things we know about HH:

- Alluded to having a role in their first post in the thread
- Has a role that has a double vote, but claims it is normal town after that
- HippieHobo posted a ton day 2, "voted" for Launchpad but in a way that didn't count, then only finally voted for someone for real to reveal the power

The first one is the thing that sticks out to me. Essentially saying "ooh, I have a role!" is a pretty weird move to take if you're actually a town role. Alluding to having extra voting power early in the thread would help if it came down to someone calling crap on a role claim (since you can go "see I didn't make it up!"), but Hippie's power makes proving it so easy that this doesn't seem like a reasonable plan, if they were town.

We should certainly evict someone today and I'm okay with it being someone that could potentially cause problems and have undue influence over a vote in the future.

Vote: HippieHobo

 

[Darryl]

Hey Karkador, if we evict a HHA, does the full role is revealed, included the range of their power?

If so, I think maybe it is time to evict the roomies, we are running in interpretations and theories with almost no way to back them up, like, at all.

Even if both are Townies their info will prove valuable, and chances are one is bad for town.

That's awful ambitious in the middle of this Hobo/Haly train. It's been made clear by almost everyone that they won't vote for them until a reason sticks out. You have my vote to swing if you can bring the army.

I'm sticking with Hobo. Sorry man. It's you or Haly and I think Haly has more to contribute.

 

[tomakasatnav]

Also, Tomakasatnav has been really inactive and I really can´t shake the feeling he is HHA.

I don't know how to pull up the post count to see how true that is compared to some of the other players here. I think I must give off a Mafia/HHA vibe because I got a fair bit of suspicion in the last game as well.

I posted earlier some thoughts on range, which didn't really point out anyone specifically so may not be that helpful (given the number of players, there's a good chance of that many players containing HHA..) but still I think Haly was the only one to respond, and dismissed it. Is that because they know something? It's early days with still a lot of unknown roles and people lying so I find it a bit weird for something to be dismissed so quickly and not discussed or the permutations to be looked at. Haly has been driving conversation a lot, trying to balance up whether that'd be a big loss to town to lose someone so vocal or whether HHA trying to control things a bit.

I think the numbers are enough for us not to be worried about Hobo's double vote just yet, so I'm not compelled to vote them off. We know about the role, and if they use it twice going against the one use claim, we know something's up.

Freak? I could go for them, there's as much evidence for them as everyone else (ie close to none..) and they fall in my square range feeling of Tucah.

Anyone else been mentioned for voting today?

 

[Kalor]

I'm torn on what I think about HippieHobo but the most recent posts have me thinking that he is maybe the best person to evict with their role being potentially dangerous for town if misused. I don't feel as strongly about them as I did at the start of the day but their eviction could shed some light on some stuff. For example, do all houses get destroyed and the specifics of their role. I might not be able to post before the end of the day so I'm voting now

VOTE: HippieHobo

 

[nin1000]

Since i am now going to sleep and not going to be able to follow The thread for the next 8+ hours i will now follow my gut and vote

Vote: HippieHobo

Sorry hobo but The analysis Haly gave us
convinced me to vote for you.

 

[nin1000]

VOTE: HippieHobo

 

[Hobohodo]

I all ready stated my feelings on the matter earlier today, if it's going to come down to HippieHobo or Haly then my mind is made up.

VOTE: HippieHobo

 

[Ourobolus]

I'm still not comfortable evicting a power role that could have a benefit to the Town. I mean, yeah, it could be a double-edged sword in the sense that it may backfire on us, but it's still something that could be useful.

But, we really do need to evict someone. We can't end up with a No Evict again, and I think Haly stimulates more constructive discussion in the thread.

I have my doubts on him being HHA due to his roleclaim defense to Haly, but it looks like it what we're going with. So, against my better judgment...

Vote: Hippiehobo

 

[SalvaPot]

I don't know how to pull up the post count to see how true that is compared to some of the other players here. I think I must give off a Mafia/HHA vibe because I got a fair bit of suspicion in the last game as well.

I posted earlier some thoughts on range, which didn't really point out anyone specifically so may not be that helpful (given the number of players, there's a good chance of that many players containing HHA..) but still I think Haly was the only one to respond, and dismissed it. Is that because they know something? It's early days with still a lot of unknown roles and people lying so I find it a bit weird for something to be dismissed so quickly and not discussed or the permutations to be looked at. Haly has been driving conversation a lot, trying to balance up whether that'd be a big loss to town to lose someone so vocal or whether HHA trying to control things a bit.

I think the numbers are enough for us not to be worried about Hobo's double vote just yet, so I'm not compelled to vote them off. We know about the role, and if they use it twice going against the one use claim, we know something's up.

Freak? I could go for them, there's as much evidence for them as everyone else (ie close to none..) and they fall in my square range feeling of Tucah.

Anyone else been mentioned for voting today?

I had the same feeling that Haly has been mighty dismissive and seems to focus only in the conversations that he is interested on keep going, when I called him out on it all he said was that he agreed with me and that is why he said nothing.

Well, for know getting HippieHobbo seems like a given, but I would keep an eye on haly just in case, even tho I still believe he is most likely just a savvy villager.