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[Ganondolf]

they should have released it against star wars. TR and Fallout are single player games whilst CoD and star wars are almost completely multiplayer experiences. not everyone wants to play multiplayer games so would give them another option that week.

going against fallout is a bad idea, TR will get lost at launch (hopefully make some good sale near xmas).

 

[speedomodel]

I personally don't understand why they would place it against another Xbox-marketed game.

Perhaps Im failing to see how TR is more like COD and Battlefront than it is like the SP orientated Fallout 4. Its a tough schedule no doubt...

ps3ud0 8)

More people will be buying COD. That is simply a fact. So no one wants to go head to head with that game on Day One. So it comes down to do which universe do they think will have a bigger sales week and should be avoided, Star Wars or Fallout. They think they have better luck against Fallout, which makes the most sense. I've chosen TR over Fallout myself.

 

[daveo42]

I think it'll do okay as it is a different kind of game from FO, but we probably won't see larger sales numbers for TR until into December once people have finished up Fallout. Being X1/360 only at launch isn't going to help matters either.

 

[mdubs]

Pretty good answer by Greenberg, i agree that it was the "less-worst" possibility.

I agree. I have no interest in Fallout but I'll be picking up Tomb Raider day one. I'd guess that there is a decent amount of differentiation between the fanbases of each series

 

[Shiggy]

Isn't Tomb Raider releasing exclusively on Xbox One this year? At least in Europe I expect it to bomb.

 

[hawk2025]

The trouble with the logic that Fallout 4 won't cannibalize sales of TR because of different fanbases is that, if we were to apply the exact same logic to Call of Duty or Battlefront, those would be even less likely to do so, especially Battlefront.

I don't buy that reasoning, and I've seen no evidence of how substitutable these games are in either direction.

 

[weevles]

It does make me wonder what the strategy was to buy the console exclusivity if they were just going to bury the game in the biggest release period of the year. :/

 

[MCD]

Never cared one bit for Bethesda's brown ugly games. Tomb Raider is a must after the first game.

 

[JoeyJungle]

they should have released it against star wars. TR and Fallout are single player games whilst CoD and star wars are almost completely multiplayer experiences. not everyone wants to play multiplayer games so would give them another option that week.

going against fallout is a bad idea, TR will get lost at launch (hopefully make some good sale near xmas).

It's easy to justify it the other way too. CoD and Star Wars are both action games like Tomb Raider, while Fallout is an open world RPG completely different from Tomb Raider.

It does make me wonder what the strategy was to buy the console exclusivity if they were just going to bury the game in the biggest release period of the year. :/

It was always going to release this time of year, whether it was a console exclusive or not. This way, if it does bomb, they won't take as much of a hit due to the MS exclusivity money. They'll also have two more chances to release it (PC early 2016, PS4 late 2016) so they don't need to bank everything on a holiday launch against strong competition.

 

[FLAguy954]

This is internet hyperbole. The games are no more "broken" than any other large open world games are.

This is hyperbole but Bethesda open world games generally have a fuck ton more problems than other open world games in general.

 

[XDAOROMANS]

I think the 3rd would have been the best bet for TR. With COD coming out on a Friday this year it could of had Tuesday all to it's self.

 

[semiconscious]

Anyway the entire Xbox + TR deal seems like something both parties quickly regretted after it was announced...

that's my take. like both ms & se wake up in bed the next morning, & each looks at the other & thinks 'what the hell did i do last night?! ...

 

[sam777]

Pretty good answer by Greenberg, i agree that it was the "less-worst" possibility.

This. His reasoning is fine tbh.

 

[Jarod McChicken]

I keep looking at Amazon (US) and Rise of the Tomb Raider is barely in the top 100 since several days, when Fallout 4 is by far the biggest seller of the moment when you combine PS4 and Xbox One SKU (otherwise, Halo 5 is obviously beasting).

This is only one metric of course and I don't think RotR will bomb in any way, but I suspect it's not going to be the good surprise of the month either in terms of sales.

 

[bumpkin]

I think he's right. Tomb raider has it's own fans and i actually put it before Fallout in my wanted list.

Seconded. I really enjoyed the TR reboot and have never played a Fallout game in my life. Haven't had the interest.

 

[jesu]

I can get it cheap in November so I'll be buying it then but I'll still be baw deep in Fallout at that point, I won't touch Tomb Raider till the new year I reckon.

 

[Chobel]

Some of you forget that most people who buy games are the casual gamers and not the hardcore fans, and these will buy the game with the bigger hype which in this case is Fallout 4. So yeah, Fallout 4 will eat a big chunk of TR2 sales.

 

[Possumowner]

Well i shall buy both.So im happy

 

[Chris1]

I dunno man. I'm on the fence here, when the fallout bundle was revealed to not include TR I thought for sure they were sending TR out to die. Then I read your "November games" topic and I see a lot of people picking up TR, I think MS might have made the right call here if Neogaf users are anything like the general public.

I still think it's silly that it didn't get heavily bundled though but I'll do my part and pick the game up.

 

[KingV]

I will probably buy TR first, blaze through it and then trade it in towards fallout.

 

[hawk2025]

I dunno man. I'm on the fence here, when the fallout bundle was revealed to not include TR I thought for sure they were sending TR out to die. Then I read your "November games" topic and I see a lot of people picking up TR, I think MS might have made the right call here if Neogaf users are anything like the general public.

I still think it's silly that it didn't get heavily bundled though but I'll do my part and pick the game up.

They are not. We are clearly a biased sample of the population, there's no doubt about it.

 

[Metroidvania]

I think Fallout isn't going to review as well this time around. Previews haven't been mindblowing and response to the visuals and graphics have been less than inspiring. Combat seems largely unchanged as well and that was one of the larger criticisms in the past.

Don't think it's gonna matter at all though because preorder numbers for Fallout are insanely high.

Uh...what previews?

We've gotten extremely limited previews of any real info outside of E3, and the behind-doors Quakecon/Gamescom. The press doesn't really know a whole lot more than we do, unless they're all under super-restrictive NDAs.

Meanwhile, combat's been upgraded/assisted (though admittedly still not looking amazing per se) by id and machinegames.

As for the visuals...aside from the vocal minority from enthusiasts, I don't think anyone's going to pick up RotR instead of Fallout 'because the graphics look nicer'.

Also...

Some of you forget that most people who buy games are the casual gamers and not the hardcore fans, and these will buy the game with the bigger hype which in this case is Fallout 4. So yeah, Fallout 4 will eat a big chunk of TR2 sales.

This.

 

[RiccochetJ]

He might be right, but it seems like a hard spot to be in. Might have been better to have a August or September release, but I guess the game wasn't going to be done by then. I haven't decided yet if I'm going to get the game at launch, but that has nothing to do with Fallout.

 

[Xion_Stellar]

Nintendo felt the same thing about TLOZ:Skyward Sword when they released it 7 days after Skyrim and looked how well that worked out for them.

Fallout 4 is like a giant eclipse and anything that gets released 2 weeks before and after the game is most certainly going to take a loss on sales.

 

[SocksAndShoes]

This is hyperbole but Bethesda open world games generally have a fuck ton more problems than other open world games in general.

They do, but they're also generally more complex in terms of the ways you can accomplish a quest than other games (at least in Fallout's case), and a lot of the bugs come from that.

Not to mention that you can physically interact with a nearly every object in the game.

Anyway, I think MS should have tried to get Tomb Raider some "alone time" so they wouldn't have to go up against a huge title.

 

[Substandard]

I probably would have chosen to go up against Battlefront.

Battlefront is a multiplayer only FPS, Tomb Raider is a single player Uncharted clone. I don't see a ton of overlap for these audiences. I think there is much more overlap with another single player campaign heavy game. Plus you avoid going up another big MS promotion deal.

I really liked the first tomb raider (first reboot anyway), and I'll certainly play the new one. I'll also get Fallout 4. I'm 50/50 on the other 2 because I don't know if I need yet another multiplayer competitive FPS in my life.

 

[Guy LeDouche]

I don't buy that reasoning, and I've seen no evidence of how substitutable these games are in either direction.

money is finite. Sales of the last TR we good, but not COD and "From the Makers of Skyrim" good. does anybody have estimates for lifetime sales of the last TR, the last COD, and Skyrim?

 

[ANDS]

So it's basically how badly do you want to get "wrecked". There was no out here really for them, not like it matters in the immediate future given the exclusivity money SE got from MS, but this will hurt the brand going forward. They can do whatever kind of GOTY edition that they want, it'll still flounder when it hits the PS4.

Honestly though, I would have picked Star Wars. Fallout is just going to obliterate TR. And that's really a shame for CD who like Respawn are at the mercy of their publishers.

money is finite. Sales of the last TR we good, but not COD and "From the Makers of Skyrim" good. does anybody have estimates for lifetime sales of the last TR, the last COD, and Skyrim?

20M over three platforms as of 2013. Definitely more from the number of sales that trickle in from Steam. TR has sold about 8M as of 2015 over five platforms. That's a monstrous difference.

 

[NoPiece]

And most of those fans are on Playstation and PC, not Xbox, and most of them are seemingly waiting, though obviously some will get it now. Further reason for the subdued hype.

It sold better on 360 than PS3 in the NPD numbers. I would have guessed it was going to hold its own vs Xbox 1 Fallout sales, but based on the Amazon pre-order numbers and lack of marketing, it lookslike it is going to get killed.

I don't understand the MS strategy here - it now looks more like they were just trying to deprive the PS4 of a title, not use it to generate sales for Xbox.

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

I would rather go up against either game than Fallout. Not necessarily saying Fallout will outsell either, but there is a big group of people who only buy CoD and other FPS games that won't even be aware or care about FO or TR.

FO vs TR seems like much more of a splitting of fans who would potentially want both games.

Just my opinion of course.

 

[ghibli99]

I'm actually playing Tomb Raider first.

Same. While the price-conscious gamer in me wants to wait for the eventual GOTY PC versions of both, I don't think I can wait that long. TR was one of my favorites from last year.

 

[TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared]

If I had the xbox one right now, and I could only have one of these games, I would choose tombraider no question.

 

[DangerMouse]

Man, I feel sort of bad for SE and Crystal Dynamics. They probably thought they were doing the deal of the century, avoiding Uncharted's cannibalization on PS4 all while getting Microsoft to help you out making the game. And then Uncharted 4 gets delayed and all that is ruined. Now they have to compete with UC4 on PS4 anyways and they miss a relatively slow Christmas for PS4 while competing against the likes of Halo on Xbone. Bias of hindsight and all.

That was brutal.

And since it's a year deal, by next holiday they may now even have to go up against Horizon (in addition to next year's installments of these 3rd party multis). Double ouch.

 

[DannyDanger]

a Greenberg sighting?!

 

[Goodacre0081]

launching in early 2016 could have been an option.

 

[DannyDanger]

launching in early 2016 could have been an option.

Holiday or nothing

 

[IdreamofHIME]

This is internet hyperbole. The games are no more "broken" than any other large open world games are.

We'll see, it's all about the peoples champions when it comes to this kind of thing. imo Witcher 3 had more problems than Unity had last year, but W3 will win GOTY awards this year while Ubisoft had to aplogize for Unity during their E3 confrence.
I'll wait to see where the coin falls for FO4, but in the meantime I will enjoy Tomb Raider.

 

[Mushroomer25]

launching in early 2016 could have been an option.

Then you're setting for a fraction of potiental holiday sales, and knocking heads with Uncharted (as well as countless other Spring titles). The game will make more releasing this holiday than next Spring, even with Fallout hype breathing down its' neck.

 

[Chobel]

I dunno man. I'm on the fence here, when the fallout bundle was revealed to not include TR I thought for sure they were sending TR out to die. Then I read your "November games" topic and I see a lot of people picking up TR, I think MS might have made the right call here if Neogaf users are anything like the general public.

I still think it's silly that it didn't get heavily bundled though but I'll do my part and pick the game up.

If only

 

[illmatic22]

Whether they want to admit or not, they are competing against Call of Duty and Star Wars in addition to Fallout 4. Tomb Raider is the smaller fish in that big pond, and I can see it struggling in a loaded month like Forza did in September.

 

[dr_rus]

Why does it even need to stand anything against Fallout 4?

 

[Elios83]

Game has a really high chance of bombing, it's useless to run around the issue.
The only fact that someone like Greenberg is publicly acknowledging the issue in an interview means something....
COD, Star Wars, Fallout 4, Halo 5 and probably even Asassin's Creed will get the mindshare and sell better in November.
Release schedule is really tough and there's also the fact that the fanbase of the game is not on Xbox. PC and PS4 gamers are not going to buy a XB1 for this game.
Looking at the early signs like online charts on Amazon, the game can't be found anywhere.
Microsoft had one way to ''save'' it and that was to make it the main bundled game of the year like they did last year with Unity.
It's a weird parternship....I don't know what the two parts have to gain under these conditions....if they bundled the game with every console it would have been different but they're not...

 

[Crzy1]

I wish them well, but only launching on Xbox One (and 360?) already made it a no-go for me. But yeah, the holidays are pretty stacked but launching alongside Battlefront/COD can't be that much worse, Fallout 4 is going to be a huge media vacuum, but I guess they're banking on more people knowing the Tomb Raider brand than Fallout.

My purchase was preordained by their shitty exclusivity deal, I'll be waiting for the PC version, I'm sure FO4 will keep me occupied until then and beyond.

 

[semiconscious]

If I had the xbox one right now, and I could only have one of these games, I would choose tombraider no question.

well, if it was releasing on ps4 ras well, & i could only have one of them, i'd still get fo4. for whatever that's worth ...

 

[Guy LeDouche]

Why does it even need to stand anything against Fallout 4?

Second place is just the first loser.

 

[Krappadizzle]

I think Fallout isn't going to review as well this time around. Previews haven't been mindblowing and response to the visuals and graphics have been less than inspiring. Combat seems largely unchanged as well and that was one of the larger criticisms in the past.

Don't think it's gonna matter at all though because preorder numbers for Fallout are insanely high.

What previews?

Combat seem much improved.

What are you talking about?

 

[DangerMouse]

Holiday or nothing

Especially if such a delay would lead to missing two holidays on the PS4 version. Delaying the Xbox version into next year would likely mean they'd have to delay the PS4 version into 2017 if they truly have to wait a full year.

It might gain from black friday atleast.

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

Why does it even need to stand anything against Fallout 4?

Not everyone buys every game.

People are going to compare all the line up and choose the one with the best bang for their buck- And that would be whichever they perceived to have the most content.

 

[Skiptastic]

They still have to get this game out before Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Folks then can buy it as gifts for Christmas.

They won't win November or come close but they'll still probably sell more doing this than they would if they delayed it to January.

 

[BeforeU]

Yup they aren't exactly competing.