BertramCooper
Banned
Oral arguments in Fisher v. University of Texas tomorrow.
She's going to win and it's going to suuuuuuuuuuuuck.
She's going to win and it's going to suuuuuuuuuuuuck.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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BertramCooper
Banned
Dude signed that pledge to the RNC just so he could rip it up.
Reince got played and it was so goddamn obvious.
Reince got played and it was so goddamn obvious.
Retromelon
Member
If that happened then it would actually be almost not fair
Veritigo_X
Member
Translation: "I hear y'all talking shit about me. Keep it up."
I could already picture him ripping it up at a rally in front of 30,000 people the day he signed the thing.
Frank the Great
Banned
This fucking guy!
Yeah this is clearly a warning shot. Telling the establishment to back off.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Which he won't be able to do a damned thing about.
There was a similar story a few weeks ago, although it cited just historically being Republican and not really looking at the issues.
j_k_redtail
Member
He should put up or shut up, frankly.
!!!!
I had that same image in my head, how they were dumb enough to fall for that shit is beyond me.
Dude doesn't need to put up unless he's pushed out.
Basileus777
Member
What does this even mean? How can he do this in December?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Why? He's headed into the nomination. He probably won't have to.
This talk is just coded threats to keep them from going the brokered convention route.
I think this one is more specifically aimed at scaring off the anti-Trump PACs that are preparing an ad blitz in January to try and take him out.
By the time we get to the general election (GE), I think the momentum behind Bernie will be so overwhelming, even billions spent on negative ads will have about as much impact as Jeb Bush's monumental campaign flop (according to that [post=188436239]pie chart[/post]), practically nothing.
The percentage of the American people who will actually vote (i.e. including the huge influx of popular Bernie supporters, plus Democratic base), in the 2016 GE, who will actually see and be influenced by the Bernie bashing TV ads, is probably relatively small, and assuming they have a big spend on social media, too, they will likely find, that door closed long ago, and, as I suggested previously, instead of simply setting their millions on fire, they could put that money to much better use, and donate it to a good cause.
EDIT: Ooh, I forgot to mention the debates. Do you really think viewers will come away with any other thought than "I would totally trust Bernie Sanders to lead our country, but, Trump, you're kidding, right?".
Veritigo_X
Member
Jack Remington
Banned
It's tribalism, plain and simple.
Which has never made sense to me. How do people become so attached to political parties in this country like it's a secondary nationality or a local sports team? I have no loyalty to the Democrats. I just happen to agree with them on a lot more issues than I do with the Republicans. If that were ever to change, so would I.
I was really perplexed the other day by the line in that Ross Douthat gun control article where he said, "I think I'm persuadable on gun control. But maybe I'm not, because gun rights are very important to my strange and motley right wing tribe." This guy who graduated from a great college with a great GPA is admitting that he goes with "tribe" over an issue by issue analysis. It makes no sense. No one should "be" Republican or Democrat. People should look at things on an issue by issue basis and decide which political candidates they align with on the most issues weighted by the importance of those issues to them personally.
Fenderputty
Banned
It's his, for a lack of a better word, "Trump card." It serves him better as a threat than in actual use here.
No, no no. This will pass. I hate OT threads because news gets buried.
i'm pretty sure benji already made an official trump topic
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Agreed, and that's how I stopped identifying with my Republican upbringing. I was never in lockstep, and I either changed views or watched the party swing further and further right on the issues I cared least about.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
I am honestly kinda hoping someone like Rubio or Cruz get the nomination and Trump runs as an independent....on the flip side, I am kinda hoping Clinton gets the nomination and Sanders runs as an independent as well.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
My math is probably wrong, but doesn't that add up to about 20% of the GOP that would split off and vote for Trump? There's no way those numbers would hold from now until November, but goddamn if it isn't fun to think about.
This would just guarantee a GOP win. So I have to ask, why?
BertramCooper
Banned
I wonder if Trump would run as an independent if Cruz gets the nomination.
If it's someone like Rubio or Jeb! (lol), I think he'd absolutely do it. I'm not sure if he would if it's Cruz.
If it's someone like Rubio or Jeb! (lol), I think he'd absolutely do it. I'm not sure if he would if it's Cruz.
i hope primary voters stick with Trump, it's annoying to see people crap on the party ideals that have fueled the GOP for years. Didn't Jeb just get done saying we should only allow Christian refugees into the country? And we'd just be able to tell if they were really Christian? Then why is just going to the logical next step unhinged? These guys are so desperate to get rid of Trump. Cheney is fine with detaining and torturing innocent people as long as the guilty ones don't get set free, but not allowing muslims into America goes against our values?
Orbis Tabula
Member
I said it in the other thread about Trump going third party, but I really don't think it would be a good thing for anyone who wants more Democrats in office. Even if 20% of Republicans stop voting (R) in the general election and instead vote (T), there won't be Trump Party candidates for Senate or House of Governor or State Rep or anything. Those people will still vote (R) down ballot. And having a split like that may get (R) and (T) voters even more energized to vote, meaning a greater chance at beating all the (D) votes down ballot. It could lead to a fractured Republican party with a Democrat president and even more Republican legislature and state governments.
However, I also mentioned spoiler laws in that thread, and now I'm not as confident that those exist as I was before. I could swear that was a big thing, but I'm trying to learn about it now. Might not be as big of a barrier as I thought.
However, I also mentioned spoiler laws in that thread, and now I'm not as confident that those exist as I was before. I could swear that was a big thing, but I'm trying to learn about it now. Might not be as big of a barrier as I thought.
Black Mamba
Member
Remember, the primary is much smaller than the amount of people locked in to vote Republican.
That said, given the demographics and electoral map, the GOP cannot afford for even 1% of regular GOP voters to vote for a third party Trump run, let alone 5% or 10%.
They have no real margin for error and need every single vote possible, so a third party run by Trump is death for the WH bid no matter what math you want to use.
This is potentially true. But it might not.
It's possible these things happen:
1. GOP voters don't come out as much knowing Trump is running third and they'll lose, hurting down ballot races
2. Trump voters refuse to vote down ballot at all as a protest included with their Trump vote
But it's also just as possible what you say (both GOP and Trump voters turn out and also vote down ballot for R).
I don't know which of the 3 will happen because this is pretty unique.
Ideally, Cruz being the nominee and getting crushed is still the best possible scenario for the Dems and the country.
Yeah, I actually don't understand Jeb's salt yesterday, and his Trump is unhinged comment.
A "Christian" test for Syrian refugees isn't thaaaaat far off from what Trump proposed.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
A third party run is perfect for someone who wants to stroke his ego while not actually becoming president.
A third party run wouldn't be about ego in the traditional sense, it would be about revenge. If he does run his goal won't be to win it, his goal will be to burn the GOP to the ground and piss on it's ashes.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Fair point... and yeah, its super bad for the GOP no matter how you slice it. You've brought me back down to reality a bit, which is a bummer since I was having fun visions of total Reagan-esque electoral college devastation.
BertramCooper
Banned
Silver has estimated (I believe - correct me if I'm wrong) that about 8% of the total population supports Trump.
So if you believe that USA Today poll that 68% of that 8% would vote for an independent Trump in the general election, you're looking at about 5% of people who would vote for him in the general.
But keep in mind that that 5% wouldn't be evenly distributed across the country. It could be much higher than that in some states and much lower in others.
But of course getting this deep into the numbers at this point is still pretty silly to begin with.
So if you believe that USA Today poll that 68% of that 8% would vote for an independent Trump in the general election, you're looking at about 5% of people who would vote for him in the general.
But keep in mind that that 5% wouldn't be evenly distributed across the country. It could be much higher than that in some states and much lower in others.
But of course getting this deep into the numbers at this point is still pretty silly to begin with.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
if Trump ran as an independent and took 20% of the vote from the Republicans on a uniform swing, the Republicans would win 42 electoral votes.
lol.
lol.
RustyNails
Member
New USA Today/Suffolk national poll came out
(12/2-12/6)
Herr Drumf 27
Cruz 17
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Jeb 4
Christie 2
(12/2-12/6)
Herr Drumf 27
Cruz 17
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Jeb 4
Christie 2
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Jeb's dead, baby, Jeb's dead.
Bush is all about that "Shibboleth" in his policy I think. Been watching too much West Wing.
FloydtheFathead
Member
If Trump is "driven"/chooses to go 3rd party.. Who would the GOP pick for president? Is it possible that they would even pick Cruz (assuming he picks party over pact) to try and possibly minimalize the trump damage? I am aware how much they hate him.. But it seems like they could have two birds with one stone with him.
I thought of the same thing and doesn't Bartlett at the end scrap his questioning of the immigrants?
I thought of the same thing and doesn't Bartlett at the end scrap his questioning of the immigrants?
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Just seeing that word got me to thinking it's time for a West Wing re-watch.
Cruz is just as insane as Trump, if not more so. The party would love nothing more than to stab Cruz in the goddamned back like the asshole he is.
They'd go with Rubio.
If that's what he got from that episode then he's an idiot.
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