Thatonemoor
Member
Didn't the first Alice movie do great in the box office? If anything Tim Burton's name plastered on it will get it to break even.
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Predict the Biggest Box Office Bomb of 2016
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Didn't the first Alice movie do great in the box office? If anything Tim Burton's name plastered on it will get it to break even.
DonMigs85
Member
That was at the height of the 3D craze coming off Avatar, and anecdotally a lot of people seemed to find it boring.
I also have a feeling Disney's Jungle Book will do better than WB's Tarzan.
andythinkpad
Member
People line up to see Johnny Depp in makeup and weird headwares.
Thatonemoor
Member
True but I don't think the movie will bomb mainly because people still love him for some reason.
I don't think 3D had as much to do with it as Burton being involved. Though I have to say I would love to be proven wrong. I really dislike the first movie.
Gordon Shumway
Banned
I never played WoW but I'm sure there are enough fantasy movie lovers and action lovers to get it to $100 domestic. Even John Carter made $70 million in the US.
The first movie made $1 billion worldwide. That's $1,000 million dollars. Even if the 2nd one does half as much that's still $500 million WW. I'm sure it will be fine.
Is Molly Ringwald in anything? That could be the sign.
Just like they did for Dark Shadows and Mortdecai.
andythinkpad
Member
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Nah. Expectations will be lowered by both audiences and media because it's a spinoff.
It could possibly do better overseas than Force Awakens did, though.
It could possibly do better overseas than Force Awakens did, though.
TheKaeptain
Banned
No one is expecting it to do Star Wars numbers.
Premium Quality
Member
I'm entering this topic blindly. I have no idea what to expect this year, but Tarzan and Egyptian Gods look really bad.
His mustache was weird.
This thread made me re-check last year's thread for reference.
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1044211
Some of the top picks were Ant-man, Terminator and Pixels.
Amusing in retrospect.
The predictive powers of the average GAF poster is not very keen.
So, I would say the outlook for the Warcraft movie is bright.
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1044211
Some of the top picks were Ant-man, Terminator and Pixels.
Amusing in retrospect.
The predictive powers of the average GAF poster is not very keen.
So, I would say the outlook for the Warcraft movie is bright.
It wasn't enough. Add a silly hat, and a monocle and Mortedecai would've been box office gold.
Don't forget the infamous eating crow threads for both Guardians of the Galaxy and Ant-man, when people said stuff like:
"I have a sneaky suspicion this is going to be the first Marvel movie to bomb, or at least come in way under normal Marvel money."
"I can't believe anyone even wants to see a movie about Ant Man"
We're just normal people with opinions, not soothsayers or Hollywood experts. Although some here put up arguments like they are
Triggerhappytel
Member
Okay, now we need to fairly agree what defines a 'flop'. According to Wikipedia BvS has a budget of $200 million (which seems like it could be a guess) and it doesn't have a budget listed for X-Men Apocalypse, although DoFP is also listed as costing $200 million, so I'd wager Apocalypse is fairly similar. Man of Steel earned $668 million at the box office and Days of Future Past earned $747 million.
Would you say it's fair that for these films to not be considered flops they need to earn at least $600 million at the box office? (Of course, I wouldn't necessarily call earning under that a flop, but rather a disappointment. But regardless, we need to agree on terms). I personally would not be surprised to see them both earn $200-300 million more than that, and BvS may be a Jurassic World-style surprise and comfortably clear $1 billion. I'm happy to have an avatar of your choice as well if they do 'flop'.
If one of the mods is prepared to help then I'll nominate that you have this tagline:
Terrible at box office predictions
or failing that, I'll come up with an image for your avatar, for use maybe until the end of the year. I'm thinking I will try to crop this into a usable image:
Magic Mushroom
Member
Not really, conisdering its budget.
Chewy Spaghetti
Neo Member
Anecdotal evidence here...a ton of my friends used to play WoW and no longer do, but we are all still SUPER excited about the Warcraft movie.
We are chinese
Interfectum
Member
I could see Warcraft bombing domestically unless it has real good word of mouth.
Okay, now we need to fairly agree what defines a 'flop'. According to Wikipedia BvS has a budget of $200 million (which seems like it could be a guess) and it doesn't have a budget listed for X-Men Apocalypse, although DoFP is also listed as costing $200 million, so I'd wager Apocalypse is fairly similar. Man of Steel earned $668 million at the box office and Days of Future Past earned $747 million.
Would you say it's fair that for these films to not be considered flops they need to earn at least $600 million at the box office?
or failing that, I'll come up with an image for your avatar, for use maybe until the end of the year. I'm thinking I will try to crop this into a usable image:
I can agree with those terms and that amount. If each film fails to earn at least 600 million, then it will be considered an flop. IF I lose, you can dm me the avatar, and I shall wear it until the end of the year.
……forgetit
Member
The only way I can see Rogue One being seen as a disappointment is if it has a great opening weekend, followed by terrible reviews and word of mouth, and then tanking before crawling to the nearest 100 million milestone. I think I will call this "pulling a Godzilla".
I always called it "hulking" as in Ang Lee's Hulk.
TDLink
Member
I think you're vastly underestimating it. It's definitely going to make most of its money internationally, but $20 mil is a ridiculously low domestic number for a summer film. There's no way it does that bad domestically, even if it ultimately under-performs here. And even if it does under-perform that international take will push it into profitability. At worst it's going to be a situation similar to Pacific Rim. But it has the potential to do better than that. I don't think there's any way it makes less than $60 mil domestically, and that number is still likely low. To only pull in $20 mil it would have to do something like open at $10 mil or lower, which is incredibly unlikely.
Androidsleeps
Member
Pixels bombed, Genyisieys was barely saved by China's BO and Ant-Man didn't do "great" for a Marvel movie. Lots of people mentioned john carter of Jupiter and Tomorrowland and PAN and they were right. It's not rocket science, every year these studios seem to be throwing (lots of) their money on garbage just because.
If Darth Vader has any presence in this film at all, I think it could be $450M+ domestic. I guess that's not TFA numbers, but still quite respectable. It needs to review quite well too.
Tarzan is going to mega-bomb, unless China takes a liking to it for whatever reason.
How did Pixels bomb? It made $243 million off a total cost(budget, marketing, prints, other stuff) of $145 million. Did the definition of "bomb" change?
And the other 2 examples smells like excuses. Doesnt matter where Terminator made the money or how Ant-man did in comparison to other Marvel movies, they were still not bombs.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
any film earning 600 mil off a 200 mil budget isn't a flop or a bomb by any stretch.
This would be a very silly metric for a pretty bad bet.
Yeah, things have gone a little sideways it seems.
Schweinehund
Member
Surprised to see people legit think BvS will bomb. I think you can make a discussion based around whether or not it will hit WB's expected goals, I'm guessing anything less than a billion will be considered a disappointment. It will be profitable though.
Now I'm hoping Tarzan ends up being some Fury Road dark horse of 2016.
Now I'm hoping Tarzan ends up being some Fury Road dark horse of 2016.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
While it would be amazing if that happened, I don't see David Yates pulling something like that off.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
I feel like Warcraft (it's actually not a "WoW" movie, as it's a retelling of the original Warcraft game from 20 years ago) is going to bomb domestically, but it might be a big hit in China.
That's about break even. Newest Bond cost 245M and I read that it would take 600ish to break even.
Shuggananas
Banned
You guys should keep your eye on Warner Brothers' 180mil Tarzan movie.
mh yeah this
warcraft too probably, thing looks like garbage
What? No. It'll make $20 mil opening weekend.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Break Even isn't bomb. Lose a little money isnt bomb. Cant even get close to your production budget? Bomb. Spend 150 mil and only make 30 mil domestic? Bomb. Even if overseas kicks in another 100 mil? Still bombed.
Rule of thumb is 2.5x budget gets you profitable. Anything between 2-2.5 isn't great, but might be salvaged at home video. Anything between 1-2 can be disappointment territory.
But you don't even make budget back? That's the kind of financial failure the thread is focused on. That level.
This is the same forum where people thought Star Wars would do less than AoU. Some people just live in their own world.
Anyways, Tarzan will likely come up short. There's like zero interest for it from what I've gathered. What's it's competition? Is out on its own? I don't know when it releases.
Warcraft as said will do great in China so it'll be fine.
That Egypt movie is the sure fire bet, lol.
Anyways, Tarzan will likely come up short. There's like zero interest for it from what I've gathered. What's it's competition? Is out on its own? I don't know when it releases.
Warcraft as said will do great in China so it'll be fine.
That Egypt movie is the sure fire bet, lol.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Suicide Kings
That has Catwoman and green lantern vibes all over it.
That has Catwoman and green lantern vibes all over it.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Suicide Squad? Nah, Joker alone guarantees it makes bank. Lower budget than BvS, almost as high anticipation/buzz levels.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Isn't Suicide Kings a move with Christopher Walken from the 90's?
Saucycarpdog
Member
If it bombs for any reason, it will be because it comes out on the same day as Xmen Apocalypse.
I know. I was agreeing with you. That's why I posted the break even.
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