so option 2 will most likely be confirmed on D2, because frankly even if they are rolebocked and are the legit name cop, quite obviously we'll flip them because their use to us is zero at that point, and the flip would clear up all the noise of today.
This is a bit unfortunate. You are basically saying that if there is a scum blocker, I assume even a switcher might be sufficient or the death of their target, you are going to lynch Time/Flux on D2. Heck, even if they are not blocked we will have no real confirmation on D2.
Depending on supposed confirmation on D2 to justify not lynching them today is nonsensical, when the only way we will ever get a useful confirmation is by lynching.
For option 3, I'm very inconsistent with reads but in a game that is effectively 15 people, 3 (max 4) are scum and to pull this gambit off as scum considering these circumstances......I just don't see that happening. it's absolutely batshit. The cub theory is the only thing I can see where this .......could make sense (doesnt make sense on D1 tho) but I'm not confident that is the case.
I think "Too insane to be a lie" is a horrendous defense. Claiming town/cop for a mafia player on D1 is risky, but it causes chaos, allows mafia to better plan ahead, maybe even gets the cop to reveal too early. It's a risky gambit, but if I recall correctly wasn't there an earlier game where a mafia member claimed to be a cop rather early and went undetected for a long time? If it works, it's a vital blow against town.
Here's my thinking for option 1 (which currently I believe):
a) Terrible play. Completely agreed.
b) they target someone N1
c) if they die, we know what they are on flip and mafia didnt want the risk of the name cop check, which implies
i) loveless is in their role name
ii) There probably isn't another cop if that's the case
d) they do a n1 check, they survive and claim it. This is probably the most vague option, because it depends on the results what happens next.
e) They do a n1 check, claim its blocked. I'd probably flip TimeFlux in this situation, as said it ends all this shit from D1, removing noise and it would also confirm some form of block or switch which would be very likely scum aligned.
Assuming they are the cop:
a) Terrible only if it fails, otherwise a feat for the ages. Extremely risky though.
b) If they are not blocked/killed.
c) If they die, that only means mafia wanted to get rid of the cop, which is reasonable in any case. Why take the risk? It would however also mean that our doctor was incapacitated or that we have no doctor.
i) Not necessarily.
ii) Probably. Except mafia might have such a role.
d) Best case scenario. Still most likely not very useful.
e) Except this seems far and away the most likely scenario, which is also why a cop should never claim early.
If you people absolutely read them as town and are against lynching them based on that, fair enough. I don't think keeping them around is going to yield much, likely we are just delaying the inevitable. If they're not scum, they'll likely be killed during N1 or N2. I don't know. If you believe them enough today, why would you suddenly change your mind on lynching them tomorrow?
Who else would you lynch if not TimeFlux? there has to be some other suspicious targets you're considering.
I don't really have a read on anyone. Some players have been quiet, but maybe they've simply been busy and posting little is not a definite scum tell, not to mention I have expressed (in every game I think) that I don't think much of D1 readings. That's contributing to me focussing on Flux/Time, since at least for them there are scenarios we can investigate. Let me think about it for a few more minutes.
