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September 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 11th

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donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD September 2016 retail period (August 28-October 1, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 28-October 1, 2016 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, October 13th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on October 20th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in September:
PS4 Pro announced Sept. 7th for release Nov. 10th @ $399 (25 days)
PS4 Slim released Sept. 15th @ $299 (17 days)


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

August's Results
Aquamarine @ Twitter said:
XB1 - 275k
PS4 - 160k
WIU - 23k
Click to expand...
3DS - 145K

August 2015 NPD thread
September 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 280K
[3DS] 150K
[WIU] 35K

I wont miss the predictions this time.
 
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of August and September. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because September is a 5 week month while August is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for September to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code: 
2010

Xbox 360 August: 356,700 / 4 = 89,175
Xbox 360 September: 484,000 / 5 = 96,800

Weekly average up 9%

PS3 August: 226,000 / 4 = 56,500
PS3 September: 312,000 / 5 = 62,400

Weekly average up 10%

Wii August: 244,300 / 4 = 61,075
Wii September: 254,000 / 5 = 50,800

Weekly average down 17%

Code: 
Notable Events in September

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Halo: Reach [3 weeks] [3.3m]
Halo: Reach 250GB Limited bundle $399 [3 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
PS Move [2 weeks[
Sports Champions + PS Move + PS Eye 320GB bundle $399 [2 weeks]

[u]Wii[/u]
Metroid: Other M [5 weeks] [173,000]

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 August: 308K / 4 = 77,000
Xbox 360 September: 438K / 5 = 87,600

Weekly average up 14%

PS3 August: 218K / 4 = 54,500
PS3 September: 374K / 5 = 74,800

Weekly average up 37%

Wii August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
Wii September: 240K / 5 = 48,000

Weekly average up 1%

Code: 
Notable Events in September

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Gears of War 3 [2 weeks] [>2m]
Gears of War 3 320GB Slim model $399 [2 weeks]
Madden NFL 12 [5 weeks]
Dead Island  [4 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Madden NFL 12 [5 weeks]
Resistance 3 [4 weeks] [180k]
Dead Island  [4 weeks]

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
Xbox 360 September: 270K / 5 = 54,000

Weekly average up 12%

PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
PS3 September: 201K / 5 = 40,200

Weekly average up 12%

Wii August: 60k / 4 = 15,000
Wii September: 77k / 5 = 15,400

Weekly average up 3%

Code: 
Notable Events in September

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
PS3 Super Slim $269 [1 week]

Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 August: 96k / 4 = 24,000
Xbox 360 September: 173K / 5 = 34,600

Weekly average up 44%

PS3 August: 71k / 4 = 17,750
PS3 September: 209K / 5 = 41,800

Weekly average up 135%

Wii August: 30k / 4 = 7,500
Wii September: 39k / 5 = 7,800

Weekly average up 4%

Wii U August: 31k / 4 = 7,750
Wii U September: 95k / 5 = 19,000

Weekly average up 145%

Code: 
Notable Events in September

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>4.06m]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [335,500]

[u]PS3[/u]
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>2.81m]
Grand Theft Auto V 500GB bundle $269 [3 weeks] [~125k]
Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 Remix [4 weeks] [273,000]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [205,000]

[u]Wii U[/u]
32GB Deluxe $299 [3 weeks]
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker [123k with bundles] [1 week]

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 August: 50k / 4 = 12,500
Xbox 360 September: 74k / 5 = 14,800

Weekly average up 18%

Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
Xbox One September: 284K / 5 = 56,800

Weekly average up 43%

PS3 August: 27k / 4 = 6,750
PS3 September: 46k / 5 = 9,200

Weekly average up 36%

PS4 August: 190k / 4 = 47,500
PS4 September: 538k / 5 = 107,600

Weekly average up 127%

Wii August: 13k / 4 = 3,250
Wii September: 15k / 5 = 3,000

Weekly average down 8%

Wii U August: 59k / 4 = 14,750
Wii U September: 87k / 5 = 17,400

Weekly average up 18%

Code: 
Notable Events In September

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<621k]
Call of Duty: Ghosts + Call of Duty: Black Ops II 500GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<945k]
1 free game with every Xbox One purchase [Destiny week]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor[1 week] [<144k]

[u]PS3[/u]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<243k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<891k]
Destiny White 500GB model $449 [4 weeks] [300k]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<207k] 

[u]Wii U[/u]
Hyrule Warriors [2 weeks] [<170k]

Code: 
2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and some months have not leaked yet for 2015) 

Xbox One August: 200,300 / 4 = 50,075
Xbox One September: 293,000 / 5 = 58,600

Weekly average up 17%

PS4 August: 207,500 / 4 = 51,875
PS4 September: 354,000 / 5 = 70,800

Weekly average up 36%

Wii U August: 42,100 / 4 = 10,525
Wii U September: 88k / 5 = 17,600

Weekly average up 67%

Code: 
Notable Events in September

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<184k]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [9/15-9/20]
Forza 6 Limited 1TB bundle $399 [3 weeks]
FIFA 16 bundle 1TB $399 [3 weeks]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>429k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>227k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<214k]
Best Buy - Trade in Last Gen console and get $150 towards Xbox One [9/27-10/3]

[u]PS4[/u]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>572k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<552k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>216k]
Destiny: The Taken King White Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [<173k]
Fifa 16 [2 weeks] [<292k]

[u]Wii U[/u]
Super Mario Maker [4 weeks] [~400k]
Super Mario Maker Bundle $299 [4 weeks] [Wal-Mart]

Code: 
2016 August Weekly Averages

Xbox One: 274,800 / 4 = 68,700
PS4: 160,000 / 4 = 40,000
Wii U: 22,800 / 4 = 5,700
Code: 
Notable Events in September

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB bundle $299 [Best Buy/MS Store] [2 weeks]
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB bundle $299 [Gamestop/Amazon] [1 week]
NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
Free game with any Xbox One S bundle purchased [Amazon/Best Buy/Gamestop/Target] [9/25 - 10/1]
Fifa 17 [1 week]
Forza Horizon 3 [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
PS4 $299 [4 weeks]
PS4 Slim 500GB $299 [3 weeks]
NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
Fifa 17 [1 week]

Some notes:

- Aside from 2 instance of the Wii falling, September is ALWAYS better than August as we are heading into the fall season and more AAA games are released.

The Xbox 360 rose an average of 20%, but without GTAV month it averaged closer to a 13% increase.

The Xbox One has had pretty decent deals in September so far. 2014 had a free game week alongside Destiny’s launch which definitely helped it and 2015 had two trade in deals along with the launch of NBA which is usually an October launch and the addition of Forza and FIFA bundles. Since it has only been out for 2 September’s worth of data, it is clearer to say it has averaged ~58,000 in weekly sales in September. This year will be handicapped compared to August since the fat models will be near non existent.

The PS3 with GTAV month rose an average of 46%, but without it averaged closer to 24%.

PS4 has been very well of in September so far with massive hardware bundles coming out every year so far. Destiny bundle in 2014 and a second Destiny bundle in 2015. This year has the launch of the PS4 slim along with a $50 price cut. For a comparison, the PS3 received its first Slim model in September 2009, so here is the weekly average comparison for that year:

Code: 
PS3 August: 210,000 / 4 = 52,500
PS3 September: 491,800 / 5 = 98,360

Weekly average up 87%

Code: 
Notable Events in September

[u]PS3[/u]
PS3 Slim 120GB model $299 [5 weeks]

Just a note that PS3 Slim’s were sold early in August and it was a bigger deal for the PS3 to hit $299. This year it doesn’t seem like there is much of a buzz.

The Wii performed about the same in September compared to August.

The Wii U has had major launches in all 3 September's so far to average out to a rise of ~77%, but this year has nothing. The Wii U has been declining since June and will more than likely continue that descent.

Recap.

September is always* an improvement.

*Unless the console has no games or is the Wii. Xbox One can also fall in weekly average this year but not month to month

- The biggest September ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 687,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? PS4 with 538,000 in 2014.
 
CosmicQueso said:
Sub 300k for the big 2 would be a real bummer.
Click to expand...

Yeah, even XB1 has been close to breaking it for the last 2 years, so it and the PS4 this year should go over. <300k would mean either these refreshes are not doing anything (big worry) or the holidays will pick up even more sales than before.
 
I've taken a bit of a hiatus from posting and that will likely continue but the launch of the PS4 Slim is such an odd event considering all the factors involved I couldn't help myself. This launch will truly be an "interesting" one to watch as will the PSVR launch.

Welfare said:
Code: 
2016 July Weekly Averages

Xbox One: 274,800 / 4 = 68,700
PS4: 160,000 / 4 = 40,000
Wii U: 22,800 / 4 = 5,700
Click to expand...

As always, thanks for the info dump Welfare but just a heads up you might wanna fix the typo above heading as it currently lists as July Weekly Averages instead of August.

Primethius said:
I need to think of my numbers. My prediction game is weak. I'm thinking PS4 won't pull impressive numbers at all.
Click to expand...

I agree. I think the announcement and pricing of the Pro has had a significant impact on the demand for the slim this early in the fall. This will of course not be the case in later months when the bargain hunters are shopping for gifts that are the best deals at the lowest prices but for now I think that's a safe assumption to make.

Primethius said:
That's an interesting prediction.
Click to expand...

Eh more like predictable. Some folks are incapable of separating their own personal preferences/biases from their predictions.

CosmicQueso said:
Sub 300k for the big 2 would be a real bummer.
Click to expand...

Do you really think the demand is there for the Slim or S though? The way its been getting price slashed and bundled makes me think the S is not selling nearly as well as hoped and the response to the Slim has seemed rather muted for a slim revision. As I mentioned above, I also think the pricing of the Pro may have severely impacted the demand for the slim revision for would be early adopters as they'd be the sorts to go for the more powerful system and September is a bit early in the season for the bargain hunting crowds to really hit their stride. I could certainly be convinced by a compelling argument otherwise though.
 
RexNovis said:
As always, thanks for the info dump Welfare but just a heads up you might wanna fix the typo above heading as it currently lists as July Weekly Averages instead of August.
Click to expand...
Thought I fixed that already, so thanks! Glad people are reading those posts.
 
Welfare said:
Thought I fixed that already, so thanks! Glad people are reading those posts.
Click to expand...

Are you kidding? They're incredibly helpful in establishing historical trends and norms for predictions as well as evaluating the potential impact of various factors like bundle, software and hw revision launches. Seems to me like anyone who isn't reading them would either have to be foolish or not actually care about sales analysis. They're basically invaluable to the prediction and discussion process in my opinion.
 
Console sales are as connected to holiday season as chocolate santas.
They should just take a break and enjoy the summer, won't miss much and we neither.
 
Welfare said:
Yeah, even XB1 has been close to breaking it for the last 2 years, so it and the PS4 this year should go over. <300k would mean either these refreshes are not doing anything (big worry) or the holidays will pick up even more sales than before.
Click to expand...

Well last year PS4 went down in october despite having a price cut. I remember people being worried. Well we know what happened in November... Also worth mentioning is the sheer contrast of PS3 Slim and PS4 Slim launches from marketing perspective. I remember how Sony went all in with PS3 Slim (You had ads everywhere). PS4 Slim has had stealth launch.
 
Ugh, now I'm questioning whether the PS4 will actually outsell the XB1 this month. To me, it's either the PS4 is #1 by a few 10,000 or XB1 barely wins. Hopefully Abdiel will provide some insight.
 
ForkNetwork said:
[3DS] 150K
[PS4] 280K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 290K

I can see the Xbox One edging out a victory, but i could be wrong.
Click to expand...

Welfare said:
Ugh, now I'm questioning whether the PS4 will actually outsell the XB1 this month. To me, it's either the PS4 is #1 by a few 10,000 or XB1 barely wins. Hopefully Abdiel will provide some insight.
Click to expand...

Right now I'm just playing it safe and gave both the same number. Might keep doing that until I go with my final numbers. I just need to remember to make any changes before the deadline.

I really do think the UHD blu ray drive is helping sale the XBO S. In a way I see why Sony isnt tripping because its not a main media. CD, DVD, Blu Ray are main medias. UHD is a part of Blu Ray.

Still think Sony should have added one. Just to keep the streak of them doing things like that going. But Sony and MS are in different positions right now so I see why MS did it.

Welfare said:
Thought I fixed that already, so thanks! Glad people are reading those posts.
Click to expand...

Your post made me change my numbers. I kinda figured Oct is starting the holiday mad rush thats Nov and Dec so it makes sense for sales to pick up around this time. I saw Christmas decorations out this weekend....and Oct just started.

Then there are folks out there that do Christmas shopping starting in Oct. I try to do this when I can.
 
Ouch, tough month to predict, between the 4S launching @$299, PS4 Pro closing in, XB1S promos...

[PS4] 350K
[XB1] 330K
[3DS] 150K
[WIU] 30K

Will adjust when we have new elements.

For info, current Amazon monthly for September

#4. PS4Pro $399 (pre order)
#24. PS4 OG COD bundle
#30. XB1S Halo bundle
#51. PS4S UC4
#69. XB1S Madden bundle
#72. PS4 OG UC4 LE bundle
#78. XB1S 2TB
#91. PS4 OG
 
Elandyll said:
Ouch, tough month to predict, betwee the 4S launching @$299, PS4 Pro closing in, XB1S promos...

For info, current Amazon monthly for September

#4. PS4Pro $399 (pre order)
#24. PS4 OG COD bundle
#30. XB1S Halo bundle
#51. PS4S UC4
#69. XB1S Madden bundle
#72. PS4 OG UC4 LE bundle
#78. XB1S 2TB
#91. PS4 OG
Click to expand...

This is why I can't decide who will win because Amazon ran out of the Halo bundle 3 days into the free game deal, so it is not an accurate call with the monthly charts.
 
[3DS] 160K
[PS4] 320K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 300K

Dragon Quest VII opens noticeably better than all the DS Dragon Quest remakes.
 
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