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[Inuhanyou]

Persona 5 hitting those numbers will rely on either A) Sega/Atlus stepping up marketing next year and/or B) the game becoming something of a cultish sensation like Golden.

It sold almost 500k in Japan alone. I think asking for a million with all the hype that's been going around, the fanbase cultivated over the years, and the media critical acclaim its going to get, people are being needlessly conservative and i dont get why that is.

Does this also include stuff like persona, yakuza etc or more focus on regular pc title like warhammer/football manager?

It was already stated but, all PC focus is on european western titles, not Japanese.

 

[Nozomi]

It sold almost 500k in Japan alone. I think asking for a million with all the hype that's been going around, the fanbase cultivated over the years, and the media critical acclaim its going to get, people are being needlessly conservative and i dont get why that is.



It was already stated but, all PC focus is on european western titles, not Japanese.

Kinda ignored the first page. my bad.

 

[Eolz]

It sold almost 500k in Japan alone. I think asking for a million with all the hype that's been going around, the fanbase cultivated over the years, and the media critical acclaim its going to get, people are being needlessly conservative and i dont get why that is.

1 million WW will be done easily. Just in the west is another question.
Although it's definitely possible LTD, first year is probably hoping too much. We'll see I guess. Persona has still to get its Dark Souls moment that will push the series out of the niche fringe.

edit: to clarify a bit, P4G did really well on a handheld filled with niche games and no real competition, and we have no idea how many sales were at a discount. The series keep growing for sure, but it's not yet at the point where you can avoid being conservative imho.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

Honestly I think this is a major failing of Sega as a company.

As the rest of the big players are expanding onto Steam with their Japanese developed library without hesitation and reaping all the rewards (I mean, jesus, looks like even Tecmo-Koei is trying to improve their quality. TK!!), Sega is shying away despite the thirst being out there and proven with Valkyria Chronicles, and instead experimenting with getting their JRPGs on Xbox One on some "Blue Ocean" myth despite THE JRPG IP, Final Fantasy, doing poorly there and causing Square Enix to stop announcing JRPGs for it for the foreseeable future. That's no Blue Ocean. That's an Algae Bloom.

Sega™

I genuinely think Yakuza would find a nice home for itself on PC and I'm surprised that Sega hasn't been pushing toward that.

 

[vaporeon]

I believe the point isn't to "rush" the localization, but rather to get the localization process happening at a much earlier point in development so that there isn't a 7-month delay. I don't see how that would be a bad idea

I wouldn't want Sega to overstep into Atlus' business as they clearly seem to operate independently. It is really easy to say they could lend a hand and magically fix everyone, but it could just as easily lead to clashing between management. There could be a multitude of reasons on why P5 is delayed, and I'm sure everyone would least agree that internal communication between Atlus JP & USA is abysmal at best.

Do you have any proof of that considering Golden's sales?

Wait, has Golden reached 1 mil LTD in the West...?

 

[kswiston]

There's no way that Golden is past 1M outside of Japan.

1M worldwide maybe. Even that sounds high. I suppose there have been enough cheap sales on PSN by this point though.

 

[Eolz]

Last update I remember was 700k WW
Possibly updated to 1M since, but certainly not in the west alone.

 

[Nozomi]

I genuinely think Yakuza would find a nice home for itself on PC and I'm surprised that Sega hasn't been pushing toward that.

As it stands now they treat PC and Console as two complete different entities who enjoy different genre.

I mean after VC allmost sold 1m copies on steam and every big japanese publisher starts or allready releases their japano title that should have send a message to Sega that there is market for japanese games. Im not even sure what we could do at this point to make them release some of their japanese portfolio on steam.

 

[Robert at Zeboyd Games]

Last time we had Persona sales figures (6 million total), someone calculated out that it was roughly a 55%/45% split between Japan & the rest of the world for sales. However, I expect Persona 5 will sell better in the West than it did in Japan since console sales are much stronger outside Japan (similar to how Ni no Kuni PS3 did drastically better worldwide than it did in Japan).

 

[kswiston]

Last update I remember was 700k WW
Possibly updated to 1M since, but certainly not in the west alone.

They announced 350k in Japan shortly after that 700k WW announcement, so close to half of Golden's sales were from Japan more than a year after the US release and 10 months after the EU release. Even if late legs were great, I doubt P4 Golden is much higher than 500k in the west by now. Vita hasn't exactly seen a skyrocketing (western) install base since the start of 2014.

 

[Omega Kirby]

Is persona still considered a b list Jrpg?

 

[Inuhanyou]

1 million WW will be done easily. Just in the west is another question.
Although it's definitely possible LTD, first year is probably hoping too much. We'll see I guess. Persona has still to get its Dark Souls moment that will push the series out of the niche fringe.

I think P5 possibly has the chops to do that, i think P5 will def sell the best worldwide and in western territories than any atlus game has up to this point at the least

 

[Inuhanyou]

*EDIT* sorry for the DP.

Is persona still considered a b list Jrpg?

At this point, JRPG's not being B list by default is a strange notion IMO, outside of games like Souls and SE's big investments

Aside from those, there isn't much from Japan that really invest on that level into Japanese role playing games.

Persona 5 is the second tier essentially. We can almost call it a "AAA" JRPG at this point considering its not global level, but its still high enough to separate it from most other affairs.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

It sold almost 500k in Japan alone. I think asking for a million with all the hype that's been going around, the fanbase cultivated over the years, and the media critical acclaim its going to get, people are being needlessly conservative and i dont get why that is.

1 million LTD in the West should be easily attainable. 1 million WW in the first year post-release should also be a lock.

I don't necessarily buy that it'll hit 1 million in the West alone in one year though and the reason for my continued skepticism and conservatism is that I'm waiting to see how Sega/Atlus market this thing. I'm not confident in them right now and I'm waiting to be proven wrong.

 

[kswiston]

Persona 5 could hit 1M in the west. Ni No Kuni eventually hit that number. However, it's still high enough a hurdle for a JRPG in the west to not be guaranteed.

 

[Lister]

I can't imagine they think Persona 5 PC wouldn't be worht the investment.

It might not do as well as it does on consoles, but it definitely would be a nice profit maker. And you are expanding the fan base for the game and future titles.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

I don't necessarily buy that it'll hit 1 million in the West alone though and the reason for my continued skepticism and conservatism is that I'm waiting to see how Sega/Atlus market this thing. I'm not confident in them right now and I'm waiting to be proven wrong.

Honestly I think the word of mouth for Golden was so strong that it would have been able to do 1 million in the west if it wasn't stuck on Vita even with no change in marketing. Hell, who knows how P4 vanilla would have done had it released on a current gen console.

1 million is by no means guaranteed for P5 but it shouldn't be a huge hurdle either between the install base of PS4 and PS3.

I am a bit surprised that Sony has shown zero interest in putting any of their muscle behind it so far.

I can't imagine they think Persona 5 PC wouldn't be worht the investment.

It might not do as well as it does on consoles, but it definitely would be a nice profit maker. And you are expanding the fan base for the game and future titles.

After seeing the numbers Danganronpa puts up I think 200k on PC would be super conservative and I could see it doing a fair bit more than that. P5 on PC would be (relative to its niche) huge.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Honestly I think the word of mouth for Golden was so strong that it would have been able to do 1 million in the west if it wasn't stuck on Vita even with no change in marketing. Hell, who knows how P4 vanilla would have done had it released on a current gen console.

1 million is by no means guaranteed for P5 but it shouldn't be a huge hurdle either between the install base of PS4 and PS3.

I am a bit surprised that Sony has shown zero interest in putting any of their muscle behind it so far.

Its Yosp's favorite upcoming game, i have no doubt it must be a Sega and Atlus thing to not have external advertising, they see the hype.

 

[StereoVsn]

Persona 5 could hit 1M in the west. Ni No Kuni eventually hit that number. However, it's still high enough a hurdle for a JRPG in the west to not be guaranteed.

Ni No Kuni hit that number because it looked and sounded like a Gibli animation. It marketed pretty much to everyone. P5 is quite strange by comparison for a lot of Western audience.

I do not see P5 doing anywhere near 1mil in the West first year. IMO it will be lucky to hit 500K. Especially so considering all the marketing Altus and Sega has been lavishing alongside continuous delays. Frankly I see it selling 300-350K in the West first year. Asia may also do decently but I am not even going to try to guess that.

Edit: Are people seriously expecting PS3 sales beyond say 10-20K in the West? In 2017?! Yeah, that's not happening. Forget about PS3, any sales numbers of significance are going to come from PS4, with PS3 being barely a blip.

 

[Valkerionseven]

When I see a Japanese company realize a game IP they own is successful, then see them report "new business model" I kind of "oh no" mentally.

I mean Persona is very profitable and has a great fan base but don't push it. I love that we can do an Arcade fighter, and dancing rhythm game out of no where and have it not only be cannon but fun.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Honestly I think the word of mouth for Golden was so strong that it would have been able to do 1 million in the west if it wasn't stuck on Vita even with no change in marketing. Hell, who knows how P4 vanilla would have done had it released on a current gen console.

1 million is by no means guaranteed for P5 but it shouldn't be a huge hurdle either between the install base of PS4 and PS3.

I am a bit surprised that Sony has shown zero interest in putting any of their muscle behind it so far.

Given all the weird Japanese shit Sony showed at PSX, and given that weirdo commercial that Sony Japan made for Persona 5 with Ichiyo Higuchi, the lack of muscle seems to be on Sega/Atlus.

I don't understand their marketing approach and that's why I'm still very skeptical/conservative in how I think its first year will do.

Edit: Speaking about this ridiculous PS4 price cut-Persona 5 ad. The lack of a Westeen push seems to absolutely be on Sega/Atlus right now, and I'm curious to see when and how they plan to actually turn the campaign "on."

 

[Aki-at]

As it stands now they treat PC and Console as two complete different entities who enjoy different genre.

I mean after VC allmost sold 1m copies on steam and every big japanese publisher starts or allready releases their japano title that should have send a message to Sega that there is market for japanese games. Im not even sure what we could do at this point to make them release some of their japanese portfolio on steam.

It's not just Valkyria, Sega has many big selling Japanese titles on Steam (Sonic series, Binary Domain, Jet Set Radio, NiGHTS etc) but it seems going forward the only Japanese series they're happy with on PC is Sonic.

I suppose because the PC arm is run by the European division, there's less impetus for them to expand into a market that they themselves have abandoned and instead focus on what they are exceptionally strong at (Which, I can't fault they do very well, they're practically the most successful division of Sega other than mobile)

Not that there isn't any reason to be hopeful. We have to look at the company in 2012 to 2014 when their localisation efforts effectively dried up and their pillars was Sonic, Aliens etc to 2016 when we are getting virtually all their titles localised, that things can change rather quickly.

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Ni No Kuni hit that number because it looked and sounded like a Gibli animation. It marketed pretty much to everyone. P5 is quite strange by comparison for a lot of Western audience.

I do not see P5 doing anywhere near 1mil in the West first year. IMO it will be lucky to hit 500K. Especially so considering all the marketing Altus and Sega has been lavishing alongside continuous delays. Frankly I see it selling 300-350K in the West first year. Asia may also do decently but I am not even going to try to guess that.

A remaster on the Vita did those numbers with a staggered launch.

700K in the West in my mind.

 

[Grief.exe]

It's not just Valkyria, Sega has many big selling Japanese titles on Steam (Sonic series, Binary Domain, Jet Set Radio, NiGHTS etc) but it seems going forward the only Japanese series they're happy with on PC is Sonic.

I suppose because the PC arm is run by the European division, there's less impetus for them to expand into a market that they themselves have abandoned and instead focus on what they are exceptionally strong at (Which, I can't fault they do very well, they're practically the most successful division of Sega other than mobile)

Not that there isn't any reason to be hopeful. We have to look at the company in 2012 to 2014 when their localisation efforts effectively dried up and their pillars was Sonic, Aliens etc to 2016 when we are getting virtually all their titles localised, that things can change rather quickly.

They've implied that there will be new PC announcements early 2017, so we will be able to determine if they continue down this route or shift to a more Japanese-centric strategy.

 

[kswiston]

Ni No Kuni hit that number because it looked and sounded like a Gibli animation. It marketed pretty much to everyone. P5 is quite strange by comparison for a lot of Western audience.

I do not see P5 doing anywhere near 1mil in the West first year. IMO it will be lucky to hit 500K. Especially so considering all the marketing Altus and Sega has been lavishing alongside continuous delays. Frankly I see it selling 300-350K in the West first year. Asia may also do decently but I am not even going to try to guess that.

Edit: Are people seriously expecting PS3 sales beyond say 10-20K in the West? In 2017?! Yeah, that's not happening. Forget about PS3, any sales numbers of significance are going to come from PS4, with PS3 being barely a blip.

P4 Golden on Vita did 350k in the west during its first year.

 

[vaporeon]

SegaSammy's Quarter 1 Forecasts:

Foresaw 10 mil in total sales overseas for all "packaged" games until March 2017.

SegaSammy's Quarter 2 Forecasts:

Revised to 7 mil in total sales overseas for all "packaged" games until March 2017.
This statement was released before Persona 5 was publicly announced that of another delay to March, so I am not sure if this revision included P5 sale predictions or not. We will see for sure next month with Q3 reports. Then we can see what Sega themselves believed Persona 5's sales in the West would be.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I can't imagine they think Persona 5 PC wouldn't be worht the investment.

It might not do as well as it does on consoles, but it definitely would be a nice profit maker. And you are expanding the fan base for the game and future titles.

Atlus has autonomy so unless Sega takes that away the mainline Persona games will continue to be PS exclusive.

I think Persona 5 going to do very well in the West and possibly be the highest rated game this year.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

Atlus has autonomy so unless Sega takes that away the mainline Persona games will continue to be PS exclusive.

I would like to think that autonomy is not the only thing that preventing Atlus to consider branching into PC.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I would like to think that autonomy is not the only thing that preventing Atlus to consider branching into PC.

They are not interesed in bring it to PC(or any other non-PlayStation platform) for whatever reason so Sega forcing it is probably the only way it happens. I know some will say more money, but obviously that isn't the main motivation in this case.

 

[eyeball_kid]

I don't necessarily buy that it'll hit 1 million in the West alone in one year though and the reason for my continued skepticism and conservatism is that I'm waiting to see how Sega/Atlus market this thing. I'm not confident in them right now and I'm waiting to be proven wrong.

Yeah, I think there's plenty of reason to be skeptical of Sega's western marketing efforts. I think P5 could do really well in the west if the marketing focused on the bold style and music, evoking the Cowboy Bebop sensibility, and de-emphasized the more Japanese-centric aspects. But it's Sega, so...

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Yeah, I think there's plenty of reason to be skeptical of Sega's western marketing efforts. I think P5 could do really well in the west if the marketing focused on the bold style and music, evoking the Cowboy Bebop sensibility, and de-emphasized the more Japanese-centric aspects. But it's Sega, so...

I agree. I think you could do a lot for the game with a smart ad campaign that hit the right notes for a certain niche. But we'll see if they can actually do it.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

Yeah, I think there's plenty of reason to be skeptical of Sega's western marketing efforts. I think P5 could do really well in the west if the marketing focused on the bold style and music, evoking the Cowboy Bebop sensibility, and de-emphasized the more Japanese-centric aspects. But it's Sega, so...

Sony should help out. It's probably going to be the highest rated PS exclusive this year.

 

[AColdDay]

Given how well it sells, it's a little surprising we don't see more Persona-style RPGs. Other than Caligula & Mind Zero, I can't think of any.

You guys should be making them!

 

[CertifiedFP]

You guys should be making them!

Huehuehuehue.

There's a major component that seperates Persona from clones.

Persona had a decade of established and polished gameplay formula to build from first.

 

[ArjanN]

I genuinely think Yakuza would find a nice home for itself on PC and I'm surprised that Sega hasn't been pushing toward that.

I could see zero or the remake of 1 being announced since they being localized and those don't rely on previous knowledge of the series.

 

[mrmickfran]

.

 

[Shizuka]

Given how well it sells, it's a little surprising we don't see more Persona-style RPGs. Other than Caligula & Mind Zero, I can't think of any.

Tokyo Xanadu? Trails of Cold Steel? They've taken more than a few concepts straight from the Persona series.

 

[dan2026]

Is persona still considered a b list Jrpg?

If it was all that important there wouldn't of been a 6 month localising delay.

 

[Meia]

1 million LTD in the West should be easily attainable. 1 million WW in the first year post-release should also be a lock.

I don't necessarily buy that it'll hit 1 million in the West alone in one year though and the reason for my continued skepticism and conservatism is that I'm waiting to see how Sega/Atlus market this thing. I'm not confident in them right now and I'm waiting to be proven wrong.

Yep. Atlus Japan(as I have to imagine it's them) have made it so Persona 5 has had absolutely no stage presence in the last year when they easily could have. It didn't have E3 stage presence, shortly after releasing a new trailer for the game(while packing in a new trailer only for the P4D spinoff that I don't think still has been released), and it didn't have any PSX presence and they released a full english trailer almost immediately after.



Whichever branch is responsible they've done the series absolutely no favors in a marketing standpoint.

 

[SliceSabre]

Ultra-large game publishers are establishing an oligopoly

That's an interesting observation. Never thought about it.

 

[Garrett Hawke]

Does persona 5 have any DLC? Weird question but I might go for US digital if that's the case to avoid any weird EU shenanigans.

 

[the_sun_king]

Does persona 5 have any DLC? Weird question but I might go for US digital if that's the case to avoid any weird EU shenanigans.

Yes. It's all cosmetic though (i.e. costumes from various previous Atlus titles and accompanying music for regular battles).

 

[Rathorial]

Still wish their business model around PC would include ports of some of their games.

They could do a variety of things to test which ones consumers are more receptive to wanting on the platform, and make some easy money.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

I could see zero or the remake of 1 being announced since they being localized and those don't rely on previous knowledge of the series.

I half wonder if that isn't the early 2017 PC news that Sega mentioned. It may be that their agreement with Sony prohibits announcement of a PC version until after the US release.

 

[StereoVsn]

P4 Golden on Vita did 350k in the west during its first year.

P5 is coming out during very busy time though. You have a huge influx of Japanese games, as well as Western RPGs like ME:A and Horizons in that timeframe.

Also Golden has extremely good word of mouth, came out on the Platform when there were few RPGs and basically was a showcase title for Vita from RPG perspective. I am just skeptical considering all the BS regarding delays, lack of marketing push, death of software sales on PS3, and general pessimism toward market reception of P5. I would love to be proved wrong here and for P5 to get that 1 mil of Western sales the first year.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

P5 is coming out during very busy time though. You have a huge influx of Japanese games, as well as Western RPGs like ME:A and Horizons in that timeframe.

Also Golden has extremely good word of mouth, came out on the Platform when there were few RPGs and basically was a showcase title for Vita from RPG perspective. I am just skeptical considering all the BS regarding delays, lack of marketing push, death of software sales on PS3, and general pessimism toward market reception of P5. I would love to be proved wrong here and for P5 to get that 1 mil of Western sales the first year.

All that will mean nothing when the 90+ metascore drops.

 

[Eolz]

All that will mean nothing when the 90+ metascore drops.

Games wish they were selling based on their MC score.

 

[Son Of Sparda]

9.3 mil for RGG/Yakuza series? Damn, that's a good number. Now, if only even half of those were from west....

 

[CrichtonKicks]

P5 is coming out during very busy time though. You have a huge influx of Japanese games, as well as Western RPGs like ME:A and Horizons in that timeframe.

Also Golden has extremely good word of mouth, came out on the Platform when there were few RPGs and basically was a showcase title for Vita from RPG perspective. I am just skeptical considering all the BS regarding delays, lack of marketing push, death of software sales on PS3, and general pessimism toward market reception of P5. I would love to be proved wrong here and for P5 to get that 1 mil of Western sales the first year.

Golden launched in November of all months.

The April release is actually probably a godsend. February would have have been a bloodbath. Just one month from a bunch of other AA and AAA Japanese releases and some legitimate heavy hitters as well. Now they are clear of Horizon by over a month and I don't think there are lot of other major releases announced for second quarter. Even with the Switch launching in March, BotW isn't out until later.

Mass Effect is a major unknown since we don't know the date on that one.

Going by import impressions it doesn't sound like word of mouth should be a concern. If anything P5 will give people an opportunity to jump on the series they have heard about for so long since it's releasing on a platform that they own.

 

[Lynx_7]

I think the most we're gonna get as far as "marketing push" on the west is concerned are those videos and interviews they're currently uploading on youtube. I still don't know how or why they missed PSX.
P5 is gonna live or die by word of mouth, and if the import thread is anything to go by it'll probably do pretty well on that front. Also helps that the series already has a somewhat sizeable established fanbase.

P5 is coming out during very busy time though. You have a huge influx of Japanese games, as well as Western RPGs like ME:A and Horizons in that timeframe.

Also Golden has extremely good word of mouth, came out on the Platform when there were few RPGs and basically was a showcase title for Vita from RPG perspective. I am just skeptical considering all the BS regarding delays, lack of marketing push, death of software sales on PS3, and general pessimism toward market reception of P5. I would love to be proved wrong here and for P5 to get that 1 mil of Western sales the first year.

I have conservative expectations for P5 sales and even I think you're lowballing way too much with a 350k prediction. If P4 did that year 1 on the Vita of all platforms there's no reason not to expect P5 to do better on a much more successful platform. Then you also take into account franchise growth. I think P5 could easily do about 500k year 1. How much it does LTD though, I don't know. My most optimistic prediction would put it at 1.5m worldwide, but I'm pretty bad at this stuff.