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Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2017 (May 08 - May 14)

ggx2ac

Member
I thought the year ending March 2014 was their big loss, and it had a fair bit to do with storing the unsold Wii U consoles. I could very well be remembering wrong.

Maybe the year ending March 2013 was their first loss but 2014 also saw a loss?

I forgot they made a loss in 2014.

You said "first loss in decades" and the one that came to mind was FY3/2012 because that was due to the 3DS:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/216625/net-income-of-nintendo-since-2008/
 

Zedark

Member
I just don't see it. If MK8D which many thought would affect it, didn't do it, I doubt Arms will. Maybe SP2 but there really isn't another good long single player game outside of BotW. MK8D/Arms/SP2 all feed the multiplayer market, but nothing other than BotW fills the single player market.
I agree. Splatoon 2 will affect it due to sheer mass appeal (which I think will be large even compared to MK8D), but BOTW won't die very quickly, and 1 million should happen.
 

Zedark

Member
so will the stock issues be solved by the time splatoon 2 launch or what?

I doubt it personally. Splatoon 2's only 2 month out, and they haven't shown signs of impending shipment increases yet, so I think we will be stuck at the baseline (40-50k) for some time still, and I don't think that will solve the shortages.
 
I agree. Splatoon 2 will affect it due to sheer mass appeal (which I think will be large even compared to MK8D), but BOTW won't die very quickly, and 1 million should happen.

Yep, I could see SP2 taking its sales for a week or two then it bouncing back to staying around a 50% attach rate through the first holidays.
 

Cookie18

Member
I scoured Osaka for 3 days (8-10) looking for Switches and couldn't find a single one. I went everywhere looking, all the way outside of the city even. They were just non-existent.

I'm not surprised by the drop, it's just impossible to find.
 

Passose

Banned
I doubt it personally. Splatoon 2's only 2 month out, and they haven't shown signs of impending shipment increases yet, so I think we will be stuck at the baseline (40-50k) for some time still, and I don't think that will solve the shortages.
they better delay Splatoon 2 then, because shipping 40-50k after the splatoon launch is not a good idea at all
 

Zedark

Member
they better delay Splatoon 2 then, because shipping 40-50k after the splatoon launch is not a good idea at all

I want to add that I do think the shipments will increase later on, somewhere towards the second half or the end of June, but that's only a few weeks before Splatoon 2, and won't solve it.
 
Furthermore, what's the harm in overestimating demand and over-supplying in these early stages of the system's life? Say they flood the markets with Switches and no one's in the rush to buy them. Nintendo could always scale back production in response and the glut of Switches in the wild will sell off eventually.

Exhibit A: Wii U.
 

Passose

Banned
I want to add that I do think the shipments will increase later on, somewhere towards the second half or the end of June, but that's only a few weeks before Splatoon 2, and won't solve it.
even if the shipments increase from 40-50k to 50-60k it still won't be enough for splatoon, and the situation will be much worse because their is supposedly a pokemon game coming to the system after that
 

13ruce

Banned
Starting to get worried that there may indeed be huge production problems, possibly with Japan Display. That would not be good.

That's probably a fact now, they severly underestimated Switches succes because they were afraid of another Wii U situation. Now Nintendo probably is preparing to really mass produce them wich will take a bit of time because factories can't just produce millions of them in a few weeks.

After Splatoon 2 launches it will be for sure 40k a week again or more Splatoon is huge in japan. Maybe even Arms will be popular there but we will see. If the shortage problem is fixed ofcouse.
 

Dynheart

Banned
So much doom and gloom. The Switch is selling like a hot item right now: A lot, and constantly sold out.

It is apparent that the Switch hold a completely different aura than that of the Wii U. I highly doubt it is going to belly up just because. Nintendo sent a clear message, and the general consumer (as well as the core audience), are interested this time. It also seems like Nintendo has gained, and maintaining, their mind-share this time around. Also something that is unlike the Wii U era.

Switch may or may not sell more than the PS4, but if it does not...it shouldn't mean Nintendo churned up another failure. That's the overall vibe I get these last couple of Media Create threads (other than the "good for you Nintendo" posts).
 

Mr Swine

Banned
Man wth is Nintendo doing, terrible numbers everywhere!

3DS is fine (better than last year by a small margin), Switch looks like it's loosing steam and Wii U is dead.

Vita looks like it has collapsed already, 200k less than last year is a big drop, usually it was around 80-100k a year
 

Emhemed

Member
I just don't see it. If MK8D which many thought would affect it, didn't do it, I doubt Arms will. Maybe SP2 but there really isn't another good long single player game outside of BotW. MK8D/Arms/SP2 all feed the multiplayer market, but nothing other than BotW fills the single player market.

MK8D is one game, with more games available that attach rate will fall. I hope I'm wrong, after all I'm a huge Zelda fan but imo it will be a surprise if BOTW broke a million in Japan. How many Zelda game had done that ?

Those are multiplayer focused games, Zelda is the perfect complementary game.

Good point, but usually (3D) AAA single player games come just short of breaking a million in Japan and I fear BOTW might follow.

Again I hope I'm wrong but looking at the history of the franchise and the state of the Japanese market, I'm skeptic about it.
 

Zedark

Member
MK8D is one game, with more games available that attach rate will fall. I hope I'm wrong, after all I'm a huge Zelda fan but imo it will be a surprise if BOTW broke a million in Japan. How many Zelda game had done that ?



Good point, but usually (3D) AAA single player games come just short of breaking a million in Japan and I fear BOTW might follow.

Again I hope I'm wrong but looking at the history of the franchise and the state of the Japanese market, I'm skeptic about it.

That's true (although FFXV will get there... eventually), but Zelda isn't following the trajectory of typical single player games. Typical single player games would have dropped much more than BOTW has. It obviously remains to be seen, as it could theoretically happen that BOTW just suddenly drops off a cliff, but currently I'm not seeing the signs to fear something like that: its attach rate is almost constant around the 50%, which tells you it sells along with Switch units, and therefore it might just continue (especially since MK8D didn't take that characteristic away from it).
 

ethomaz

Banned
You know why they call it 'ramping up production'? Because you cannot instantly double output. You add bandwidth which accelerates output, until you reach your desired velocity.

We're two months in. It's like you expect a Ferrari to have reached 200mph when the accelerator only hit the floor one second ago.
Right.

They ramp up the production to store them in warehouses instead to ship them to retail.

The actual sales are in line with 10m Forecast... so unless they change the forecast the "ramp up" didn't happened or happened already to estimate the 10m.

Let's wait the June quarter release.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Nintendo don't use warehouses to store unsold stock, they ended up paying retailers to keep Wii U stock on shelves instead of having them return it to Nintendo.

That causes Nintendo to lose money however, you might wanna check how much money THQ lost from storing unsold stock of the Udraw in warehouses before you suggest Nintendo should store their unsold stock in warehouses.
That was not true at all with Wii U because we got a negative shipments in one quarter that pretty sure means retail returning units to Nintendo warehouses.

That was the first time I saw this happen since Wii gen.
 
That's true (although FFXV will get there... eventually), but Zelda isn't following the trajectory of typical single player games. Typical single player games would have dropped much more than BOTW has. It obviously remains to be seen, as it could theoretically happen that BOTW just suddenly drops off a cliff, but currently I'm not seeing the signs to fear something like that: its attach rate is almost constant around the 50%, which tells you it sells along with Switch units, and therefore it might just continue (especially since MK8D didn't take that characteristic away from it).

Yep this, I think it will be more surprising if it doesn't eventually hit 1 million 1-2 years after launch (combined of course) than if it doesn't.
 

OryoN

Member
IDK, it's kinda sad when you have sales in the 20k territory after two months on the market, and the Switch is currently so hard to find in Japan. It's clearly a huge missed opportunity to ride the momentum and sell as many units as possible. The monthly NA sales estimate is relatively low too.

If there's some massive uptick in sales in the coming weeks, in all territories, I'll take this back, because it would suggest that Nintendo may have been doing some production balancing. We'll see...
 
Even with digital and limited edition from Nintendo Store this FE will have a hard time matching the LTD of previous 2 DS remakes.

for reference (Media Create):

06./05. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia # <SLG> (Nintendo) {2017.04.20} (¥4.980) - 5.713 / 174.868 (-61%)
07./10. [NDS] Fire Emblem: New Mystery of the Emblem - Hero of Light and Shadow (Nintendo) - 15.845 / 213.011 (-26%)
 
IDK, it's kinda sad when you have sales in the 20k territory after two months on the market, and the Switch is currently so hard to find in Japan. It's clearly a huge missed opportunity to ride the momentum and sell as many units as possible. The monthly NA sales estimate is relatively low too.

If there's some massive uptick in sales in the coming weeks, in all territories, I'll take this back, because it would suggest that Nintendo may have been doing some production balancing. We'll see...

They definitely need to up production asap and misjudged initial demand. The current down week could be a combo of them sending more for the MK8D launch, and also trying to save some for the Arms/SP2 launches.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
This is done by NIS, the same folks who released Disgaea 5 Complete right? Clearly D5C was a success now =P.

NISA is publishing the game in the West, while the original developer is Cubetype.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Huh? This will blossom well into the tens probably by end of day if an ARMs demo also happens to show up.

It will also blossom if Splatoon 2 preorders officially start and-

Why do I have the feeling a nationwide bigger restock could happen the same day Splatoon 2 preorders start?
 
I wonder if Nintendo sending units by air has led to the supply lines being dry, which may take a couple weeks to replenish. Regardless they have to figure it out and get production up higher than what it was this week.

Street Fighter II releases this month for Switch, is there anything else in Japan? I know the US has Disgaea 5 but it already released in Japan of course.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Could someone remind me what the Japanese retail blog rumor about new PlayStation hardware at E3 was?

It didn't specify handhelds, did it?
 

Vena

Member
Could someone remind me what the Japanese retail blog rumor about new PlayStation hardware at E3 was?

It didn't specify handhelds, did it?

Not that I am aware, no. It was just "new hardware" for this E3 and this was extrapolated in some fashion to a handheld because switchsanity h/was been consuming the internet. I guess?

I'd sooner picture something like PSVR2/Lite or some such.
 
So, Nintendo has underestimated demand yet again. It's like they've steadfastly refused to learn anything.

Is this going to continue? Because I'm just going to wait to get a Switch if it is.At least unlike the NES Classic, we don't have to worry about it being suddenly discontinued.
 
If Vita 2 did exist (which it doesn't), I can't imagine that Sony would reveal it anywhere but in the one territory where such a device wouldn't be completely DOA.
 

Xbro

Member
So, Nintendo has underestimated demand yet again.

Is this going to continue? Because I'm just going to wait to get a Switch if it is.At least unlike the NES Classic, we don't have to worry about it being suddenly discontinued.

I think at this point it's a matter of them not being able to ramp up production fast enough.


Pardon the mansplaining.
 

Vena

Member
Well I'm mainly asking as we have a similar claim in another thread, but it's for a new PS4:
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=237037842
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=237048672

Who is this product for...?

It sounds like its another tier of PS4 hardware, either between Pro and Slim or above Pro.

That or Sony has tapped magic and created a PS4 handheld? (This is not a serious notion. Their hardware does not exist on a fabnode capable of the LTDP/Performance bracket for the PS4, and AMD certainly has no such technology.)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!

Vena

Member
Pardon me if I'll sound rude but WHAT THE.

Since he mentioned "optimisation" for PS4 Pro and the next PS4, certainly we're not speaking of a brand new SKU based on the base model. But I wonder, in the case, if we're speaking of a PS4 Pro Slim or literally a PS4 Pro Pro.

Sounds like a Pro Pro. The second post leads me to think this.
 
You cannot simply make more stuff faster. It needs really careful planning and you need to get all of the component suppliers on board.

They are not making everything in one plant. They need to get more components, those components need to be shipped in the manufacturing plant, they need to up the production (and that is not that easy, especially if their lines are already near the top speed).

Imagine if one of the suppliers has problems in bringing more of their stuff, for example RAM modules. That will hinder the whole process and Nintendo cannot do much for those problems. They can try to push their manufacturer and them can push the suppliers but it might not work.

There is a shit ton of stuff you need to think when making these things.

EDIT. And of course, if they had to rethink and tweak the manufacturing process because of the faulty joycons and docks... That can take time too.
 
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