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Digital Foundry: If Xbox One X is $500 - How much will next-gen consoles cost?
- Thread starter Theorry
- Start date
Yea Jag vs Ryzen... As its stands right now Ryzen is looking nice just for PC building, upgrading vs Intel. Price vs cores and performance Ryzen is hopefully putting pressure on Intel to lower prices.
Hopefully Ryzen is used for next gen.
geordiemp
Member
Yes it would, and it would show in 60 FPS in games like Ass Creed and the like if it was Ryzen.
MS had 2 options in my opinion, release just after the Pro with the design they have now, or wait until they could include Ryzen for a gulf in performance against Pro and making 500 bucks worth it.
DemonCleaner
Member
if APUs are getting as huge as in xonex (and therefore hugely expensive as implied here), what's their point anyway?
Well, after being burned by the Xbox One, I won't ever buy a console for $500 again.
Not to mention, PS4 was easily the best value in gaming.
$400 should be the standard.
Companies shouldn't BUILD FIRST and price later, they just BUILD SMART and price at $400. ESPECIALLY for "next-gen" consoles.
I can SORT OF understand why a mid-gen premium/hardcore console could be priced higher, similar to Elite controllers, but I certainly won't be buying it without pretty heft-in trade in deals.
Not to mention, PS4 was easily the best value in gaming.
$400 should be the standard.
Companies shouldn't BUILD FIRST and price later, they just BUILD SMART and price at $400. ESPECIALLY for "next-gen" consoles.
I can SORT OF understand why a mid-gen premium/hardcore console could be priced higher, similar to Elite controllers, but I certainly won't be buying it without pretty heft-in trade in deals.
eso76
Member
The same as always ?
I mean, the xbox one is a mid gen refresh aimed at enthusiasts, i don't think its price has anything to do with how much next gen consoles will cost.
It, as well as PS4 pro, will definitely impact WHEN though.
It will be a while before Sony and MS will be able to offer a significant upgrade to PS4Pro and Xboxone for 399/499.
While 499 is still fine to me and it's a matter of perception more than anything (seriously, 100$ more on something that should hopefully last you anything between 4 and 6 years is a completely neglectable amount of money for most people, even in my country where salaries are like 1/2 of those in NA on average) manufacturers will want to stay within the usual range.
I mean, the xbox one is a mid gen refresh aimed at enthusiasts, i don't think its price has anything to do with how much next gen consoles will cost.
It, as well as PS4 pro, will definitely impact WHEN though.
It will be a while before Sony and MS will be able to offer a significant upgrade to PS4Pro and Xboxone for 399/499.
While 499 is still fine to me and it's a matter of perception more than anything (seriously, 100$ more on something that should hopefully last you anything between 4 and 6 years is a completely neglectable amount of money for most people, even in my country where salaries are like 1/2 of those in NA on average) manufacturers will want to stay within the usual range.
I thought his comment was interesting. Calm down.
Yeah, I wouldn't mind that personally. AAA games take so long to make, the returns are diminishing. it feels that we are just getting out of the remaster/cross gen phase in the current generation. Even if we do jump to next gen in a couple of years, it will be harder to notice the jump when we will be getting cross gen games for years more. I think he is right in that the leaps are harder and harder to make compared with previous generations. I would rather it be made easier for more devs to make AAA games quicker and more cheaply.
And I was told ram prices going up didnt effect MS, Sony, Nintendo, etc. And now AMD.
Damn.....
Hopefully ram prices gown back down. If not, just the amount of ram next gen consoles use might help estimate the cost of the console.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Sony will price there system at $400 maybe $450 the most .
They found the price most people willing to pay and will build the system around that .
By 2019\2020 7nm should be out and you will get a system a good deal more powerful than X1 with that price.
They found the price most people willing to pay and will build the system around that .
By 2019\2020 7nm should be out and you will get a system a good deal more powerful than X1 with that price.
Souldestroyer Reborn
Banned
Nah that would be 3/4 year old tech by 2020.
PS5 should be:
- CPU - Some sort of Ryzen 2.0 or Threadryper 2.0
- GPU - Dedicated GPU @ 7nm with 16-20TF FP32.
- RAM - 32Gb GDDR6 or HBM2
- HDD - 4Tb 7200RPM HDD (Would prefer an SDD but I just don't see it. Possibly a Hybrid drive)
All for a price of £400-£450.
Mr.Deadshot
Member
399 for PS5. It worked too well for PS4.
I think Theorry is right, that read like a "why bother discussing now"
Stilton Disco
Member
That's a lot of time, effort and money poured into a product meant for only a niche of a niche of a niche audience.
Besides which, the XOS's sales are already seeing surprisingly sharp YOY declines from all the data we've got available to us from NPD and the like, and it's not looking ke that isn't already available very cheap with regular sales and bundles. If they're not looking for the XOX to sell in any meaningful numbers or have long legs, and their base model continues to be a poor mans third fiddle, it does rather hamstring those efforts to extend the brand when it's being done from such a small, weak base.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Well hope that works out for you, I doubt next gen will be that powerful though.
A GTX 1080 Ti is 11.3 TF FP32, so to think PS5 would be 16-20TF is crazy. Don't get me wrong it would be awesome but it's never going to happen.
I wrote this in another thread but it seems to be needed here.
Wow GAF experts always amaze me with their "console market" analysis and business savvy!
If I understand what the experts in this thread are saying, the Playstation 5 is about to come out in 2020 with possible (but unlikely) backwards compatibility, and a reasonable price (nothing over $499!). It will have the newest Zen architecture somewhere around 7nm and spark a new console war after the very successful PS4 run.
They already figured out the specs of the new console, they started targeting manufacturing times, shipping dates, and a big 2019 E3 reveal. By next year the SDK for the processor and memory configuration should by reaching developers and PS5 launch titles should be ready to show "in engine" by 2019.
What will those games look like?
Native 8K, 120 frame per second 3d holo-projected images.
No.
probably native 4k, 60 frame per second masterpieces.
Oh wait! won't that console already on the market?
What would be the big "enhancement" of the PS5 be over the current 4K/60 frame per second announced consoles (ahem Xbox one X)?
If the PS4 Pro's 4K is good enough why the hell would I buy a PS5 in three years?
3 YEARS!
Wow GAF experts always amaze me with their "console market" analysis and business savvy!
If I understand what the experts in this thread are saying, the Playstation 5 is about to come out in 2020 with possible (but unlikely) backwards compatibility, and a reasonable price (nothing over $499!). It will have the newest Zen architecture somewhere around 7nm and spark a new console war after the very successful PS4 run.
They already figured out the specs of the new console, they started targeting manufacturing times, shipping dates, and a big 2019 E3 reveal. By next year the SDK for the processor and memory configuration should by reaching developers and PS5 launch titles should be ready to show "in engine" by 2019.
What will those games look like?
Native 8K, 120 frame per second 3d holo-projected images.
No.
probably native 4k, 60 frame per second masterpieces.
Oh wait! won't that console already on the market?
What would be the big "enhancement" of the PS5 be over the current 4K/60 frame per second announced consoles (ahem Xbox one X)?
If the PS4 Pro's 4K is good enough why the hell would I buy a PS5 in three years?
3 YEARS!
RowdyReverb
Member
I just don't see how games are held back by the current hardware like I did towards the end of last generation. Biggest issues with console games are things like lengthy load times, but I don't think fixing that would be generational leap. Maybe 60 for across the board? But even so, last gen should be able to run the same games at 30 for with lower settings.
I just feel like now we're in the realm of diminishing returns, and we might have to wait longer and/or spend more to see any noticeable difference, at least as far as game design. Otherwise, next gen will just be a shinier current gen
I just feel like now we're in the realm of diminishing returns, and we might have to wait longer and/or spend more to see any noticeable difference, at least as far as game design. Otherwise, next gen will just be a shinier current gen
Shin
Banned
Actually you can...
Ms opted for compact form instead of saving money.
They could have gone with 12Gb in claim-shell mode which would have saved them money instead of using 12x1gb sticks.
It would have produced more heat but it's only a 6tf machine. The gtx 1070 uses a traditional cooler I believe in such a compact casing and manages just fine.
300Mhz overclock on the cpu couldn't have costed them much hell amd might have thrown that in for free, plus 16nm improvement gains.
Adding 4 compute units to a gpu that amd customized for mobile, desktop, Ps4 and ps4p shouldnt have been much either, the rest is kinda automatic? 4*64*1172Mhz
Basically it's a full fledged rx 480 gpu which now costs 230 usd at retail with 4 added cu and down clocked from 1266Mhz to 1172 so really nothing special going on here beside those added compute units.
They could have saved money by using conventional cooling instead of vampor chamber another cost saver.
$30 for 4gb ram, $15 for the uhd, vampor chamber $30-40, copy oc and gpu customization maybe $35 total $100. Cheaper parts one year later, they could have sold it for 449.
Meh too tired to get into deep stuff atm...
All in all X and Ps4p are so similar it's kinda funny but PR is having a field day, 2 years from now a 9.6tf machine is going to cost the same 399-449 and that doesn't factor in 7nm which should save money.
TL
R; 399 will stay cuz of node shrink and progression.Agree
Shin
Banned
Been thinking about that and ram prices bump the BOM too much, we might have to settle for 24Gb GDDR6 or even GDDR5x.
In that sense I rather they go all out with 32gb GDDR6 with a proper ryzen cpu, gpu they can fix with pro but having different amount of memory between base and pro is gonna cause problems I think.
R_thanatos
Member
Seems reasonnable , but i don't see why a SSD drive would be unrealistic by then .
I mean it would be 2020 by then wouldn't the price of SSD be down a lot ( or down enough that it could compete with normal drives ? )
Edit: the price of that could be 499$ if they want to lose a little money on each console
DemonCleaner
Member
Vega is 13 Tflops in a few weeks. 7nm Navi will be well over 20 Tflops in 2019. why shouldn't there be a 16Tflops console in 2020?
jobrro
Member
Game sizes are increasing, some games need 100GB these days. SSD would be nice but if MS/Sony can save a few dollars they will. Don't see the next gen launching without 2TB+ drives. They would be better to have a slot on the back for a M.2. drive which either auto caches games or you can move important games to.
Cost, size, power consumption, heat, APU-design - choose your favorite reason.
There was a 5.6TF (One X level) gpu in 2013.
What did we get in consoles?
1.8TF and 1.3TF.
R_thanatos
Member
True but i don't see the size of games growing up THAT much. Yes we have games that are 100gb like the new forza but is it going to be a common occurence ?
Could be . but i'm not sure they will grow that much
Yea MS is in n different position than Sony for their mid gen refresh.
IINM that was a dark period of hot AMD GPUs and 20nm failure.
Well it's not like last gen vs this gen was that huge of a jump either. And mass buyers didn't seem to mind. Both PS4 and XO were pretty weak even back in 2013 (relatively to PCs).
Shadowhelper
Banned
Why would it come out within the next two years?
It'll be whatever is best afforded by $399, almost for sure. And, the next gen consoles, are reaching a point of diminishing returns. They are not going to try achieving a greater resolution than existing consoles.
That's a big deal. Not chasing a new resolution means there isn't an overwhelming pressure to hit a certain mark. Performance will be better, and more effects and complicated games, but all of that will be easier to get to, since we aren't going up in resolution anymore.
It'll be whatever is best afforded by $399, almost for sure. And, the next gen consoles, are reaching a point of diminishing returns. They are not going to try achieving a greater resolution than existing consoles.
That's a big deal. Not chasing a new resolution means there isn't an overwhelming pressure to hit a certain mark. Performance will be better, and more effects and complicated games, but all of that will be easier to get to, since we aren't going up in resolution anymore.
Apparition
Member
I suppose the new standard would be a big leap over OG and only a small leap over the MGR (Mid-Gen Refresh). If people are not satisfied with that, that should wait for the next-gen Pro/X
The interesting question is that, since we know that there will be a mid-gen refresh this time around, would we jump on board from the beginning or just wait until the MGR variant get released?
The interesting question is that, since we know that there will be a mid-gen refresh this time around, would we jump on board from the beginning or just wait until the MGR variant get released?
jobrro
Member
We went from 0.18TF~0.24TF GPUs and 0.5GB RAM to 1.3-1.8TF GPUs and 8 GB RAM. CPUs weren't anything to write home about but the consoles on the whole were still a big jump. Anything less than that will be disappointing.
It amazes me how simplistically GAF looks at a lot of these things...
GAF: "It'll be $399, they wouldn't be stupid enough to go above that. History shows that's what the market Is willing to pay. Look what happened to XB1 @ $499"
... as though this is Sony's first generation seeing a market's reaction to various price points, and as though $399 will forever be perpetually worth the same to both Sony and its users. Here, let's translate the above quote into 1998 speak.
GAF: "It'll be $299, they wouldn't be stupid enough to go above that. History shows that's what the market Is willing to pay. Look what happened to Saturn @ $399"
There is no "sweet spot" pricing that you can reliably apply across generations that are starting to span almost a decade each. How anyone can seriously post something like this...
GAF: "It'll be $399, they wouldn't be stupid enough to go above that. History shows that's what the market Is willing to pay. Look what happened to XB1 @ $499"
... as though this is Sony's first generation seeing a market's reaction to various price points, and as though $399 will forever be perpetually worth the same to both Sony and its users. Here, let's translate the above quote into 1998 speak.
GAF: "It'll be $299, they wouldn't be stupid enough to go above that. History shows that's what the market Is willing to pay. Look what happened to Saturn @ $399"
There is no "sweet spot" pricing that you can reliably apply across generations that are starting to span almost a decade each. How anyone can seriously post something like this...
...baffles the fuck outta me.
jobrro
Member
I don't think they will go over $399 in 2013 by too much, for the base console anyway. Inflation is a thing, so $399 is about $420 today, I don't think it would be crazy if PS5 is $449 in 2020/2021.
I'm not saying it'll definitely be $500 or higher. Hell, to extend my prior example both the PS1 and PS2 launched at $299, and were both massively successful. Going off the logic GAF is displaying here though, the market would have dictated a console needs to be $299 or lower, and Sony would know better than to do anything other than set that price as the target, and spec accordingly.
geordiemp
Member
1. Its a forum, we can discuss what Ps5 might be, its fun, stop being condescending.
2. Its clear you know very little about hardware thinking XbX is also a 4k60 machine, so I dont know where the earlier comment came from
New shadow of mordor is 4k30 on pro and Scorpio, Elder S online will be 4K30 on pro and scorpio, Destiny2 will be 4K 30 ,,,,Is this starting to form a pattern ?
Both pro and scorpio are not 60 FPS machines for AAA big games outside racers (Wipeout and Forza), maybe some older / simpler stuff.
Thats because of Jaguar and a Ryzen class CPU will be a GULF in SPEED processing power especially frame rate.
You missed 3 x CPU upgrade allowing for 60 FPS gaming. Ooops.
Uno Venova
Banned
I know that they'll only sell well at 399 or lower. If they're comfortable selling at a much slower pace than this generation started at they can price it however they want.
As much as ppl try to dispute it, do a PC build in comparison, this is true.
And what that told me was looking to do my first PC build and just all of us talking about the price more before it was officially revealed by Phil at E3.
Sometimes we forget to separate wishes, wants from reality.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
I don't think there will be a jump that big because of cost and it gives them room to sell another mid gen refresh if they feel the need to, plus consoles are always a bit behind the PC tech to make them affordable.
jobrro
Member
I don't disagree with you. A $299 console in the 90s would be stronger than a $299 console in 2013. The $399 price point will not last forever and they can discount the console when it becomes possible. $399 has worked for a couple of years but soon it will be increasingly difficult to build a worthwhile upgrade at that price point that is meant to last 6+ years.
If they go with Ryzen or Ryzen 2 there will still be plenty of 30fps games.
I don't understand the "XOX is a mid-gen upgrade so it doesn't count" argument. Err... so? How does the fact whether a new console is a mid-gen upgrade or not influence the cost of its components? Actually, mid-gen upgrades are based on well-known hardware, which is an argument for them being cheaper to manufacture.
The only thing really "unnecessarily" expensive in the XOX is probably the vapor chamber.
The only thing really "unnecessarily" expensive in the XOX is probably the vapor chamber.
I bet you can source that claim. Or wait, no I'm not, because cost estimates for the Switch already exist. They conclude that Nintendo is barely making profit with the hardware.
Best part is it's more expensive in most of Asia thanks to Maxsoft force bundling it with 1-2 Switch. I suspect they are dumping all Joycons prone to desync in Asia because Joycons are having a price drop, which doesn't happen unless it's a miracle.
geordiemp
Member
Exactly, the vapour chamber is the only luxury if one was considering next gen
Apparition
Member
I can see a 6-7x jump for the GPU (to around 12TF with improved architecture) and much improved CPUs but a similar jump in RAM is impossible and just not needed. A 2x increase to something like 16GB is more like it.
I just hope they include an M2 expansion slot for those who want to go fast on storage.