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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
chadskin said:
It's breaking news for CNN apparently: https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/916341298168287232
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Weinstein's alleged history of sexual assault spanning decades isn't breaking news? Particularly when it was no secret?

Weinstein has, for years and years, been a major -- and high profile -- Democratic donor and fundraiser. He has doled out hundreds of thousands -- and helped raise millions -- for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Weinstein had made 185 individual donations to a variety of Democratic candidate and liberal-aligned organizations dating back to the early 1990s.
Click to expand...

It's simple. You think twice about accepting money from sexual predators, fraudsters and the corrupt. Don't associate with them. Don't be seen with them. It's not worth it and you don't need his support especially if you're purporting to be a beacon for women's issues.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
This is to me what will sink his campaign if he loses. He can't straddle that line.
Click to expand...
For the concerns Northam’s campaign is having, Gillespie seems to be the one acting desperate here. I’m not doubting that Northam’s numbers aren’t nearly as rosy as public polling, and hopefully they’re more on top of things behind the scenes, but it appears to me like Gillespie is flailing.
 
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Barzul

Member
Sessions issues religious liberty guidance to federal agencies

Sigh.

“As President Trump said, ‘Faith is deeply embedded into the history of our country, the spirit of our founding and the soul of our nation . . . [this administration] will not allow people of faith to be targeted, bullied or silenced anymore,’” Sessions said in a statement.

“The constitutional protection of religious beliefs and the right to exercise those beliefs have served this country well, have made us one of the most tolerant countries in the world, and have also helped make us the freeist and most generous.”

Among the principles outlined in the guidance is that certain religious organizations are entitled to hire only people whose beliefs and conduct are “consistent with their employers’ religious precepts.”

It states as an example that a Lutheran school may choose to employ only practicing Lutherans, only practicing Christians or only those who adhere to a code of conduct consistent with the precepts of the Lutheran community sponsoring the school.
Click to expand...
 
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Blader

Member
I thought all the shit around Weinstein was about how verbally abusive he is and how he has destroyed people's careers over nothing. I actually had no real idea that he was such a prolific sexual predator. And I read an entire book about him!
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Blader said:
I thought all the shit around Weinstein was about how verbally abusive he is and how he has destroyed people's careers over nothing. I actually had no real idea that he was such a prolific sexual predator. And I read an entire book about him!
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I think it would be fair to characterize that part as being an open secret much more limited to Hollywood folks, whereas his violent temper was something much more broadly discussed.
 
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AntraxSuicide

Banned
whyamihere said:
This thread has a habit of making excuses for potential warning signs and that's what got everyone in trouble last election, myself included.

I guess your funeral, but I'll be making calls for Ralph and trying to convince people to vote for the guy that voted for Bush twice. I suggest you do the same instead of saying "it's all fine!"
Click to expand...

You were pretty vocal about how much the party should avoid running perennial losers after Clinton's loss, and I think you should probably take that advice with Perriello. He ran a bad campaign and got beaten badly. I see no reason whatsoever that such a poor primary performance is anything other than a "potential warning sign" but I think you'd still rather trade him in anyway because you liked him.

This is legit re-litigating the primary, except it's with a different one.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
Isn't Virginia bad one governor election away from being the new North Carolina?
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It’s so awful how badly we let the state elections get away from us. Virginia is a state that just keeps getting bluer in presidential elections, but even if Northam wins he’s still going to be shackled by a GOP legislature (even if we flip the House, which would be a huge achievement, Senate doesn’t go up until 2019).
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Oh hey John Kellys phone has been compromised for months. Fan fucking tastic

Also it’s Fired Friday. Too soon for a Tillerson? is Mnuchin next for racking up a new current high score on admin air travel?
 
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whyamihere

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
You were pretty vocal about how much the party should avoid running perennial losers after Clinton's loss, and I think you should probably take that advice with Perriello. He ran a bad campaign and got beaten badly. I see no reason whatsoever that such a poor primary performance is anything other than a "potential warning sign" but I think you'd still rather trade him in anyway because you liked him.

This is legit re-litigating the primary, except it's with a different one.
Click to expand...

That post specifically is about warning signs now with internals and high undecideds and everyone about saying "that's fine!", not about Perriello's primary campaign. Not really sure why you brought that up, but because you did...

I do think Perriello was the better GE candidate and I stand by that. I feel bad he didn't win, and think he would've run a much more aggressive campaign against Gillespie that would've connected with more voters and run on our strengths in NoVA while hopefully engaging with voters we hadn't been able to connect to, as well as non-voters.

I would've hoped Northam to run an aggressive campaign, run on his strength with black voters and be more aggressive against Gillespie. Run on social justice and run an aggressive stance on the AHCA and the Medicaid expansion while tying Gillespie to every bad thing that Republicans want to do in the state and running on Northam's own record as a doctor. My fear was that Northam would run an "aww shucks" campaign and fail to engage with a Democratic base that's out for blood while Gillespie would be able to pull these NoVA voters who hate Trump but view Gillespie as a mainstream Republican because Northam is too afraid to tie him to the president.

So what Northam does is put out a huge ad saying that he'll work with Trump, his internals have him tied and Democrats are panicking about Northam's bad campaign and his failure to engage with the moment.

That's exactly what I was worried about.

If people want to say "it'll be fine!" or, "of course they're saying that, they want you to be scared!", I don't know. I think those are warning signs and people would do well to heed them. Get involved now. I'm making calls for Northam on Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for the next 4 weeks even though he's absolutely the type of Democrat we need to avoid running (see: close to losing in a Hillary state!). I'm doing my part.
 
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benicillin

Banned
studyguy said:
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/916365937070223361


Swear this dude is some kind of absolute moron to be shoving that level of uncertainty at his country after meeting with military leaders and dangling some kind of announcement that sounds this grave. Fucking hell.
Click to expand...

He just likes saying stuff like that because it gets people all riled up. I'm pretty sure he's said similar things like, every other week since he was president. It's dumb movie shit that sounds good on TV before a commercial break.
 
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kirblar

Member
benicillin said:
He just likes saying stuff like that because it gets people all riled up. I'm pretty sure he's said similar things like, every other week since he was president. It's dumb movie shit that sounds good on TV before a commercial break.
Click to expand...
He's behaving like a yippy dog dictator.
 
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whyamihere

Banned
Just got the volunteer packets for OOS volunteers for Virginia. Everything is NoVA and Hampton Roads focused. Nothing about sending people to Richmond, Charlottesville...

Whyyyyyyyyy
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
Just got the volunteer packets for OOS volunteers for Virginia. Everything is NoVA and Hampton Roads focused. Nothing about sending people to Richmond, Charlottesville...

Whyyyyyyyyy
Click to expand...
Charlottesville would be very weird to send OOS visitors to because it's so far out of the way. It and the JMU/VTech areas are isolated college towns.

Not sending anyone to Richmond is weird though.
 
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whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
Charlottesville would be very weird to send OOS visitors to because it's so far out of the way. It and the JMU/VTech areas are isolated college towns.

Not sending anyone to Richmond is weird though.
Click to expand...

Add Canvass Capacity in NoVA
a. Recruit, develop, and train local volunteer squads throughout DC and
Maryland to knock doors in high priority areas that lack sufficient
local volunteer capacity

3. Crush GOTV in Hampton Roads
a. Route all OOCW volunteers to Hampton Roads to knock doors for
GOTV (11/4-11/7) and the second GOTV dry run (the preceding
weekend: 10/28-10/29)
Click to expand...

:-\
 
A

AndyD

aka andydumi
benicillin said:
He just likes saying stuff like that because it gets people all riled up. I'm pretty sure he's said similar things like, every other week since he was president. It's dumb movie shit that sounds good on TV before a commercial break.
Click to expand...
Yep. Keeps him in the news and gives him the upper edge, so he must love it.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
:-\
Click to expand...
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/virginia/

Just as a follow up on C-Ville, Hillary got 50K votes there.
In NoVA, 701K.
Richmond and its suburbs 253K
Hampton Roads major counties 311K

Going hard on NoVA makes complete sense, but Richmond being excluded is still weird from a numbers standpoint. The only clue here might be "lack sufficient volunteer capacity", because Hampton Roads is super-duper military and could be missing a normal base of younger volunteers as a result. (but i'd definitely ask someone who might be able to explain it!)
 
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whyamihere

Banned
Siena Polls:

New York

Trump favorables:

Approval: 28
Disapproval: 68

Schumer:

Approval: 58
Disapproval: 31

Gillibrand:

Approval: 50
Disapproval: 23

Cuomo:

Approval: 57
Disapproval: 35
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/us/politics/puerto-rico-florida-voters.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

ORLANDO, Fla. — Every day dozens of Puerto Ricans pour into the Orlando area, fleeing their homes and lives ravaged by Hurricane Maria. In the months to come, officials here said, that number could surge to more than 100,000.

And those numbers could remake politics in Florida, a state where the last two presidential and governor’s races were decided by roughly one percentage point or less.

There are more than a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, a number that has doubled since 2001, driven largely until now by a faltering economy. But their political powers have evolved slowly in this state, and the wave of potential voters from the island could quickly change that calculus.

If the estimates hold, and several officials said they might be low, the Puerto Rican vote, which has been strongly Democratic, could have rough parity with the Cuban vote in the state, for years a bulwark for Republicans in both state and national races.

“What’s clear is that this is going to be a more powerful swing group,” said Anthony Suarez, a lawyer here, who has run for office as both a Republican and a Democrat. “Just like everybody has to go to Miami and stop in Versailles to have coffee to court the Cuban community, that is going to start happening here.”

For Puerto Ricans Off the Island, a Struggle to Make Contact After Maria SEPT. 21, 2017
In Central Florida, home to more than 350,000 Puerto Ricans, their political impact has already been felt. Last year, Representative Darren Soto, a Democrat, became the first member of Congress of Puerto Rican descent elected from Florida when he won a Central Florida district with a large Puerto Rican population.

Mr. Soto said that any significant shift in population in such a highly competitive state could have an enormous impact.

“My district has the most island-born Puerto Ricans of any congressional district, and that is already changing Florida politics,” he said. And that change could be even more significant because of the widespread anger over President Trump’s response to the devastation caused by Maria — the president, accused of reacting slowly to the crisis, said islanders were not doing enough to help themselves.
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Under the umbrella of an organization called CASA, 14 different groups have banded together to help provide relief for hurricane victims, from collecting and delivering supplies to Puerto Rico to helping build a resettlement effort in Central Florida.

Emily Bonilla, a Democratic county commissioner who was elected from a district that is 80 percent white, is working to provide services for the new arrivals, mindful that they may soon be her constituents. “Puerto Ricans are unique,” she said. “We support each other regardless of party, but no surprise, the majority become Democrats.”

Mr. Trump won about 35 percent of the Latino vote in the state in 2016, exit polls showed, with 54 percent of that share coming from Cuban-Americans. Hillary Clinton won about 70 percent of the non-Cuban Latino vote and had an almost three-to-one edge among Puerto Ricans.
Click to expand...

“One of the reasons you see Rubio and Rick Scott racing to Puerto Rico is they realize the potential danger of this bashing of the mayor for Florida Republicans,” said Susan MacManus, a professor at the University of South Florida who has studied the state’s Latino vote.

Ultimately, the impact Puerto Ricans have on politics will be up to people like Esteban Garces, state director of Mi Familia Vota, who has been working in the state since 2012 and said his group had registered more than 65,000 voters since then.

Puerto Ricans are American citizens by birth, so registering them is far easier than registering Latino immigrants. His organization has been building a network that will make it easier to register those who come from the island and declare Florida residency. “We have the capacity and the know-how to step up the scale,” Mr. Garces said.

“This is a defining moment,” he said. “Historically Cubans have always been thought of as the political powerhouse in Florida, but over the years their concentration has been decreasing. Now, there are almost more Puerto Ricans than Cubans, which will create a dynamic shift in how the Latino vote in Florida goes.”

It is too soon, he said, to push to register people as they arrive, many stricken by loss. But with a governor’s race next year, Mr. Garces is preparing to mobilize after the migrants have had time to settle in.

That election, and the presidential election in 2020 if Mr. Trump is on the ballot, will be a referendum in part for Latino voters on how politicians responded to the crisis in Puerto Rico.
Click to expand...
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Puerto Ricans were expected to surpass Cubans in Florida by 2020 before Maria happened.

Voldemort and Rubot know the future of the GOP in Florida is dependent on at least managing to win 35-40% of them.
 
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Basileus777

Member
Fenderputty said:
Could this kinda thing be the catalyst that gets congress to seriously consider PR becoming a new state? Keeping Florida reliably old and Cuban while making PR a state would electorally benefit the GOP more than letting Florida become more reliably blue.
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Admitting PR as a state wouldn't reverse these demographic trends. It's not going to get a significant number of people to move back to Puerto Rico.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Basileus777 said:
Admitting PR as a state wouldn't reverse these demographic trends. It's not going to get a significant number of people to move back to Puerto Rico.
Click to expand...

I would like for PR to eventually become a state (assuming they still want to be one), but If the GOP is facing a monster demographic changes regardless, I'm happy to settle with a more reliably blueish Florida.
 
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