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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Sakura

Member
What this says to me is that we are nowhere near the Spanish Flu. Even if you assume the rest of the year will be as bad as the first four months (that's unlikely, the curve has flattened) you're looking at well under half the deaths of what the Spanish Flu managed. Also the Spanish Flu was exceptionally dangerous for young adults.
Well the Spanish Flu managed to infect I think around 30% of the US.
If coronavirus infected 30% of the US, you'd probably be looking at around the same numbers of dead.
That being said the population of the US at the time was only around 100 million, which is why those numbers are kind of pointless without context. 600k out of 100 million people is a lot more deadly than 600k out of 300 million. Still big numbers though.
 

diffusionx

Gold Member
Well the Spanish Flu managed to infect I think around 30% of the US.
If coronavirus infected 30% of the US, you'd probably be looking at around the same numbers of dead.
That being said the population of the US at the time was only around 100 million, which is why those numbers are kind of pointless without context. 600k out of 100 million people is a lot more deadly than 600k out of 300 million. Still big numbers though.

No, you wouldn't, because the Spanish Flu killed young and healthy people in a way that COVID-19 does not.
 

prag16

Banned
This is nonsensical.
Where you live, people died because they didn't take this seriously early enough. Instead, they went on vacation to hotspots in Europe and NYC and brought the disease back with them. People "abandoned" old folks because they were sick, not because of fear.

Where I live, we locked down before March break and saved many lives in the process.
You are just assuming that is the case. Cryptoadam made assumptions too, but we know for a FACT that in several states COVID-19 positive patients were sent back into nursing homes. In NY this was done en masse, and perhaps to a lesser extent in other cases. In CT there are anecdotal accounts of this happening but no widespread reporting, BUT what we do know is that around 60% of all deaths in the state (much higher percentage than NY) have occurred in nursing homes. This was reported.

The lockdowns were mainly to protect those types of people. And apparently these people weren't protected, whatsoever. (And it also bears mentioning again that this isn't the death sentence it's billed as even for the 80+ crowd; the fatality rate in that group is only 30% in the very worst hit areas, and more like 15-20 % more generally. But we still had tons and tons of deaths in those facilities. What was the point of the lockdown then?
 

cryptoadam

Banned
This is nonsensical.
Where you live, people died because they didn't take this seriously early enough. Instead, they went on vacation to hotspots in Europe and NYC and brought the disease back with them. People "abandoned" old folks because they were sick, not because of fear.

Where I live, we locked down before March break and saved many lives in the process.

How does people traveling account for over 80% of our deaths being in old age homes? the people who travelled weren't the ones in the old age homes. The other 20% are from those people who travelled, and thats under 500 people so far.

They abandoned them here because they don't want to deal with the shit pay and generally the people that work there are not the highest in society. We had one home were 35 people died, and a lot of them were not from Corona. People starved to death and were found in their shit. Our PM had to literally beg for people to go work in those homes and finally the army was sent in by Trudeau.

What happened in our old age homes is a disgrace and it happened in Ontario and its a big story there now too.

If our leadership would of taken care of the most vulnerable they could of stopped 70-80% of the deats, were talking 1600 to 1800 deaths in my city.

I agree that they were slow on locking down, our lock down has been very lax and my mayor is a dumb ass hippie wannabe who shouldn't be anywhere close to any comitte of international mayors. But the reason why where I live has such bad numbers is because they let the outbreak run wild in old age homes. These fuckers took forever to stop the pracitce of people working in multiple homes, how stupid are they.
 

Kenneth Haight

Gold Member
I live in Northern Ireland. We have had relatively low numbers here which is good news. As far as I can see here lockdown is lifting fast. Groups of up to 6 can gather outdoors. I went shopping today and things are much busier.

Went for a run tonight and it’s good weather and there are people everywhere walking, sitting round the beach enjoying themselves. It’s nice to see.

I think the whole thing with Dominic Cummings has essentially have the UK public free reign to tell the police to go and fuck themselves. I think we are close to seeing people at the end of their tether with these very strict measures. I’d hate to see a resurgence or a second wave and I’m just hoping we are over the worst of this.

I seen this article:

And it is Almost as if they’re disappointed the virus is dwindling, it’s really quite strange.

Anyway hope you are all staying safe and hopefully this will make us appreciate the small things even more in the future, I know I certainly will.
 

Dr.Guru of Peru

played the long game
How does people traveling account for over 80% of our deaths being in old age homes? the people who travelled weren't the ones in the old age homes. The other 20% are from those people who travelled, and thats under 500 people so far.

They abandoned them here because they don't want to deal with the shit pay and generally the people that work there are not the highest in society. We had one home were 35 people died, and a lot of them were not from Corona. People starved to death and were found in their shit. Our PM had to literally beg for people to go work in those homes and finally the army was sent in by Trudeau.

What happened in our old age homes is a disgrace and it happened in Ontario and its a big story there now too.

If our leadership would of taken care of the most vulnerable they could of stopped 70-80% of the deats, were talking 1600 to 1800 deaths in my city.

I agree that they were slow on locking down, our lock down has been very lax and my mayor is a dumb ass hippie wannabe who shouldn't be anywhere close to any comitte of international mayors. But the reason why where I live has such bad numbers is because they let the outbreak run wild in old age homes. These fuckers took forever to stop the pracitce of people working in multiple homes, how stupid are they.

The virus didn’t just pop into nursing homes on its own. People brought it in, whether it be workers returning from vacations or families returning from vacations. People didn’t take it seriously enough. Even now, we have people complaining about not being able to visit their family but they don’t understand how easily these things can get out of control in nursing homes.

Nursing homes are always going to be high risk for outbreaks. Frail people living in close environments, with staff that go between patients while being in close proximity to them for extended periods of time. A lot of these patients are total care, which means they need someone to help them with everything. That’s a huge amount of exposure. There’s nothing unique about Ontario or Quebec in that regard. Most of BCs cases were also in nursing homes. The difference is that we didn’t get as many cases overall, so the homes weren’t as overwhelmed.

I’m not sure if your characterization of why people abandoned nursing homes is correct. I know in Ontario there were nursing homes where the entire staff got sick so they had no choice but to stay home.

Quebec’s lockdown was actually mush harsher than BCs. The difference is all timing and proximity. Quebec is right next door to the worlds biggest Covid19 hotspot in NYC and went on March break just as the virus was exploding in NYC and Europe. BC locked down before March break and was fortunate enough to be next door to Washington state, which despite being the early hotspot did a very good job of stopping the virus’ spread.

There is nothing about BCs nursing homes that are better than what you have in Quebec. Workers here were going to work without appropriate PPE for the first few weeks and had/have patient to nursing ratios just as bad. Universal PPE was lacking nationwide until new federal guidelines came out mid April. But because BC locked down before the virus took hold in the community, they were able to limit the entry of the virus to these care centres even without using PPE.
 
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cryptoadam

Banned
The virus didn’t just pop into nursing homes on its own. People brought it in, whether it be workers returning from vacations or families returning from vacations. People didn’t take it seriously enough. Even now, we have people complaining about not being able to visit their family but they don’t understand how easily these things can get out of control in nursing homes.

Nursing homes are always going to be high risk for outbreaks. Frail people living in close environments, with staff that go between patients while being in close proximity to them for extended periods of time. A lot of these patients are total care, which means they need someone to help them with everything. That’s a huge amount of exposure. There’s nothing unique about Ontario or Quebec in that regard. Most of BCs cases were also in nursing homes. The difference is that we didn’t get as many cases overall, so the homes weren’t as overwhelmed.

I’m not sure if your characterization of why people abandoned nursing homes is correct. I know in Ontario there were nursing homes where the entire staff got sick so they had no choice but to stay home.

Quebec’s lockdown was actually mush harsher than BCs. The difference is all timing and proximity. Quebec is right next door to the worlds biggest Covid19 hotspot in NYC and went on March break just as the virus was exploding in NYC and Europe. BC locked down before March break and was fortunate enough to be next door to Washington state, which despite being the early hotspot did a very good job of stopping the virus’ spread.

There is nothing about BCs nursing homes that are better than what you have in Quebec. Workers here were going to work without appropriate PPE for the first few weeks and had/have patient to nursing ratios just as bad. Universal PPE was lacking nationwide until new federal guidelines came out mid April. But because BC locked down before the virus took hold in the community, they were able to limit the entry of the virus to these care centres even without using PPE.

While one thing BC did that Quebec didn't was that they stopped the policy of workers going to multiple homes, and this probably played a big role in the difference between BC and Quebec.
 

Dr.Guru of Peru

played the long game
While one thing BC did that Quebec didn't was that they stopped the policy of workers going to multiple homes, and this probably played a big role in the difference between BC and Quebec.
Doubt it. I know from experience that the ban in BC was only partially enforced, and both Ontario and B.C. enacted similar rules (nearly a month after the lockdown), and both have very different outbreaks.

It was the lockdown that helped, plain and simple. Places that locked down early did well. The ones that were late did not. It seems like the measures taken to lock down matter less than simply having some sort of lock down in place to let people know that they need to take the virus seriously.
 
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Nymphae

Banned
tkr3cBS.jpg
 

HarryKS

Member
The panic that their plan failed is starting to set in.
Don't be dense. The fundamentals at play here when it comes to the stock market are completely stretched. A crash was overdue before Covid 19 and right now stupid money has been flowing. The big institutions are still on the sidelines when it comes to private equity. The volume does not lie. The earnings ratio are also stretched out.
 

Lanrutcon

Member
We have the craziest shit happening in my country. President says "We're lowering the lockdown!", Covid task force head goes "We're lowering the lockdown depending on region and infection numbers!". President goes "Right that's what I meant I had an old slide in front of me". Country goes "who's really wearing the pants over there...".

Plus the Covid task force head doesn't like people smoking, so cigarettes are banned countrywide. The black market cigarette trade is flourishing.
 

darkinstinct

...lacks reading comprehension.
This fucking family:

100.000. And that's just the official numbers. Meanwhile South Korea returns to a hard lockdown because they had 74 new infections in a day on a population of 50 million. The US? 18.000 on a population of 350 million.
 

Guileless

Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
South Korea is a special case that is not comparable to a continent-spanning country of 300 million. That said, I still dont understand their endgame - how long can they keep up that level of extreme vigilance?
 

Sakura

Member
South Korea is a special case that is not comparable to a continent-spanning country of 300 million. That said, I still dont understand their endgame - how long can they keep up that level of extreme vigilance?
Long enough until there is a vaccine or something. Or at least I imagine that is what the endgame is.
 

Joe T.

Member
South Korea is a special case that is not comparable to a continent-spanning country of 300 million. That said, I still dont understand their endgame - how long can they keep up that level of extreme vigilance?

Extreme vigilance is an understatement. That all their measures still can't prevent them from shutting hundreds or thousands of businesses down makes one thing perfectly clear to me: I will gladly accept the risk of catching a flu or this new virus to enjoy the freedoms of life in the western world, even while it's suffering the aftereffects of decades of media conditioning.

It does make me wonder, though: does anyone here have a high degree of trust in the manner in which their mainstream media outlets have been reporting on this virus? I mean, are they focusing on the right numbers/data/science, asking the right questions of elected leaders and health officials, are they being straight or sensationalizing their coverage?

National media coverage in the US has been so overly dramatic (and too often fake) that it looks like something out of a Hollywood disaster movie and it's no better north of the border in Canada where the fearmongering is strong both on the national and municipal level, at least in Montreal. I'm hoping it's not this bad everywhere.
 

diffusionx

Gold Member
Extreme vigilance is an understatement. That all their measures still can't prevent them from shutting hundreds or thousands of businesses down makes one thing perfectly clear to me: I will gladly accept the risk of catching a flu or this new virus to enjoy the freedoms of life in the western world, even while it's suffering the aftereffects of decades of media conditioning.

It does make me wonder, though: does anyone here have a high degree of trust in the manner in which their mainstream media outlets have been reporting on this virus? I mean, are they focusing on the right numbers/data/science, asking the right questions of elected leaders and health officials, are they being straight or sensationalizing their coverage?

National media coverage in the US has been so overly dramatic (and too often fake) that it looks like something out of a Hollywood disaster movie and it's no better north of the border in Canada where the fearmongering is strong both on the national and municipal level, at least in Montreal. I'm hoping it's not this bad everywhere.

The media has been actively harmful this entire time, and continue to do so. I posted one example from a few days ago. The most charitable explanation is that fear and hysteria gets clicks, so they ratcheted up the fear and hysteria. Obviously there’s a million other possible explanations as to why.

A person would be far more educated about the reality of this COVID situation by reading this thread all the way through, than they would by watching CNN every day.
 

Hulk_Smash

Banned
How so?

Why will the virus all of a sudden become way deadlier in the fall? Consider that 40-50%, heck some places even as high as 80% of deaths were in old age homes, we could kick the second waves ass by just not sending it into old age homes.

We also know now a lot more about the virus, we know to social distance, to wear masks, wash our hands. And to top it off we now have millions of tests that we can administer if there are falre ups.

I really don't like this fallacy that corona = spanish flu. Time to stop being its just the flu bro bro LOL. Corona isn't the spanish flu and there isn't anything saying its going to follow the spanish flu pattern. If anything we should compare it to SARS/MERS since those were corona viruses and once we got past those there wasn't a second wave.

And waves are just BS, there is no 1st wave/2nd wave/3rd wave. There is just the virus. Its here. Either we do a good job containing it and limiting its damage or we don't. And until vaccine or herd immunity shows up we will just have to live with the virus the best we can.

BUT THAT"S NOT GOOD ENOUGH. TRUMP KILLED 100K AND TOOK 40 MILLION JOBS FROM US. ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES PEOPLE!
 

cryptoadam

Banned

Well not good news. Though nothing for sure yet since this was based on other corona virus's and not COVID 19, and it is possible that we can have immunity and be reinfected but not get it as bad.

But this just means now more calls for lock downs.
 

Well not good news. Though nothing for sure yet since this was based on other corona virus's and not COVID 19, and it is possible that we can have immunity and be reinfected but not get it as bad.

But this just means now more calls for lock downs.

At this point I think we need to see at least a few corroborating reports before we should put too much stock in any of the news coming out. Hopefully this is wrong.
 

iconmaster

Banned

Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

How long are we going to have to keep pretending?
 

cryptoadam

Banned
At this point I think we need to see at least a few corroborating reports before we should put too much stock in any of the news coming out. Hopefully this is wrong.

I agree. We also had reports about reinections a few months ago and SK proved it wrong.

Also this is another one of those where the headline is a bit sensationalist compared to the article. If you actually read it the study was on other coronavirus's like the cold, not SARS COVID 2, so we can't say that COVID will react the same way as the common cold.

As well another expert in the artilce mentioned sterile immunity and non-sterile immunity. So even if you get reinfected its very possible that the reinfection will be less severe.

There was another study that found that some people already had the T-Cells to fight against CV though they weren't infected because they had a different virus before.


Researchers found T cells that target SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in the blood of people who had recovered from a coronavirus infection. Some people who had never been exposed to the virus also had T cells that could recognize the virus, researchers report May 14 in Cell. That finding suggests that previous infections with other coronaviruses, like the ones that cause common colds, could provide some level of protection against the new coronavirus, such as keeping people from developing severe disease.


It remains unclear whether these defenses can protect people from a reinfection with SARS-CoV-2, and, if so, for how long.

Lets hope that the experts are wrong again and we have longer lasting immunity
 

cryptoadam

Banned





How long are we going to have to keep pretending?

No problem, dont you know all the data is a lie? And the CDC said the antibody test don't work half the time (well thats not what they said but headlines be headlines).

The threat to the young has been way overblown, while the threat to the old has been under played.

Someone who is 35 does not have a .5-1% mortality. But then someone who is 80 with 2 underlying conditions doesn't have a .5-1% mortality either. Its more like .005 vs 4%

And we also have to taken into account that 80% of the deaths are coming from like 15% of the population. Clearly these elderly are going to skew whatever %'s people will throw out there.
 

All Hail C-Webb

Hailing from the Chill-Web





How long are we going to have to keep pretending?
Wow, that would lead to only 1,300,000 - 2,600,000 deaths in the US if we assume it only hits 80% of the population, and that medical systems don't become overburdened.
What are people pretending?

No problem, dont you know all the data is a lie? And the CDC said the antibody test don't work half the time (well thats not what they said but headlines be headlines).

The threat to the young has been way overblown, while the threat to the old has been under played.

Someone who is 35 does not have a .5-1% mortality. But then someone who is 80 with 2 underlying conditions doesn't have a .5-1% mortality either. Its more like .005 vs 4%

And we also have to taken into account that 80% of the deaths are coming from like 15% of the population. Clearly these elderly are going to skew whatever %'s people will throw out there.

Because elderly people typically die way less than younger healthy people?
Did you also say the CFR for the elderly with preexisting conditions is 4%? That's fucking awesome. Thank you Doctor.
 
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hariseldon

Unconfirmed Member
So as others have alluded to, the media has driven hysteria for clicks/eyeballs. Just one thing - by destroying the economy (and lets be clear they are responsible as they made western governments feel they had to act or be labelled murderers) they have destroyed themselves as advertising goes down the toilet. I’m wondering what their end game is.
 

Sakura

Member





How long are we going to have to keep pretending?
Pretending what? 0.5 to 1% is not an insignificant number. If just 30% of the pop got infected, then we are looking at 500,000 to 1 million deaths, and we'd need more than 30% for any kind of herd immunity.
I think we've been saying that is what the death rate is for a while now, ever since those antibody studies out of New York and what not.
 

ManaByte

Member
So as others have alluded to, the media has driven hysteria for clicks/eyeballs. Just one thing - by destroying the economy (and lets be clear they are responsible as they made western governments feel they had to act or be labelled murderers) they have destroyed themselves as advertising goes down the toilet. I’m wondering what their end game is.

Biden-brands-Trump-absolute-fool-for-mocking-mask-use.jpg
 

iconmaster

Banned
Pretending what? 0.5 to 1% is not an insignificant number. If just 30% of the pop got infected, then we are looking at 500,000 to 1 million deaths, and we'd need more than 30% for any kind of herd immunity.
I think we've been saying that is what the death rate is for a while now, ever since those antibody studies out of New York and what not.

Alright guess not
 

cryptoadam

Banned
Wow, that would lead to only 1,300,000 - 2,600,000 deaths in the US if we assume it only hits 80% of the population, and that medical systems don't become overburdened.
What are people pretending?



Because elderly people typically die way less than younger healthy people?
Did you also say the CFR for the elderly with preexisting conditions is 4%? That's fucking awesome. Thank you Doctor.

And with Corona its more than typically its like to the power of 100.

In Montreal under 50=20 dead
Over 80 = 2000

I would say thats a lot more than old people dying typically more than young people.

I think if you add in all the asymptomatic people then the IFR (not CFR) for the elderly probably is around 4%, if you are above 80 its probably higher. I would say from about 65 and on the average would come out to between 1% and 5%.

Add in that 90-99% of deaths all have a pre exsisting condition and even for the healthy young population the IFR is way below .5%.

Once more studies come out the IFR outside of a nursing home even for the sick and old is probably going to be magnitudes lower than those inside nursing home.

At least outside the USA. I think in the USA you guys have a lot of fatties and unhealthy people skewing the data in the 50-70 age range where there are probably more deaths.


kSCK2XZ.png

80% of the deaths coming from 16% of the population.

Things start ramping up once you get to the 55 age group, but thats odd of place compared to the rest of the world, but welp fatties.
 

Hulk_Smash

Banned





How long are we going to have to keep pretending?

That's what I feel like we're all doing. Pretending. Pretending this virus is the second coming of the Spanish Flu. Pretending that masks and gloves help. Pretending that it makes sense to keep businesses closed for months at a time. Pretending that food shortages aren't happening in third world countries.

A friend told me recently, "We're going to look back on this time and see how silly we really were in how we reacted."

I wish he were right.
 

GeorgPrime

Banned
Corona Crisis is like a rollercoaster ride for me:

- Lost my old job due to Corona crisis (and stupid managment descisions)
- Fighting with unemployment offices.... then finally getting all done so they can continue with unemployment benefits
- The moment iam done with it... i get a call. I will get a new job soon - with more salary than my last job.
- I will work at the new company and at the same time i build up my own company.

Now iam in a better position than i was before. All thanks to Corona. ;)



Presented with no comment


WTF is this?
 
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Chaplain

Member
2-minutes-per-person to become infected if they standing next to someone and both have masks on:



New data confirmed by Dr. Michael Osterholm (the guy who has been spot-on about Covid) that 6-feet social distancing is not enough to protect people from becoming infected.

 

mickaus

Member
How does people traveling account for over 80% of our deaths being in old age homes? the people who travelled weren't the ones in the old age homes. The other 20% are from those people who travelled, and thats under 500 people so far.

They abandoned them here because they don't want to deal with the shit pay and generally the people that work there are not the highest in society. We had one home were 35 people died, and a lot of them were not from Corona. People starved to death and were found in their shit. Our PM had to literally beg for people to go work in those homes and finally the army was sent in by Trudeau.

What happened in our old age homes is a disgrace and it happened in Ontario and its a big story there now too.

If our leadership would of taken care of the most vulnerable they could of stopped 70-80% of the deats, were talking 1600 to 1800 deaths in my city.

I agree that they were slow on locking down, our lock down has been very lax and my mayor is a dumb ass hippie wannabe who shouldn't be anywhere close to any comitte of international mayors. But the reason why where I live has such bad numbers is because they let the outbreak run wild in old age homes. These fuckers took forever to stop the pracitce of people working in multiple homes, how stupid are they.

It I still stories like this that make me never want to send my elderly relatives to nursing homes. Animals are treated better than this.
 
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