To your third and fourth point, whose to say Arkane's funding didn't increase after MS's acquisition. Remember that Double Fine literally credit MS's acquisition for them being able to complete key things like the boss fights in Psychonauts 2, it was a game smaller in scope before that. And Sony doesn't have ownership of those IP, which makes it even worse in terms of them being locked to one console, at least with an acquisition, the expectations are different because of 1P association. If Sony buys Square Enix, it would be a lot less of an issue about their games not coming to Xbox.
Also, the whole CMA documentation/responses are about Sony not wanting CoD to become exclusive. How can anyone say Sony is not pretending exclusivity is good/bad.
PC versions release has little to no bearing on the exclusivity being tied to the consoles.
Lying ? ok bud
Now you go show me a source where it says Square have deliberately chosen not to release FFVII R on Xbox because of business/sales reasons.