I see this a lot, but any time I've asked, no one has been able to answer, where did you get that from?
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Which of the big three is most likely to bow out first?
- Thread starter Mama Robotnik
- Start date
I see this a lot, but any time I've asked, no one has been able to answer, where did you get that from?
I think Sales Age, as a concept, was less developed in the past. Speaking for myself, I wasn't aware, nor did I care, of how games and consoles sold - I simply loved Sega's products. So when the collapse came, it was very unexpected. Since then, I've become far more interested in the economics of game development.
This was my first thought but none of them are going anywhere for a while.
Raitosaito
Member
Microsoft sadly will stay due to money, and their Kinect/Living room strategy. Which is sort of working already sadly. Many devices like Apple tv does what Microsoft is doing better and cheaper, but my friend's parents have taken over most of their Xbox's as a Netflix and tv type viewing machine. They don't even make any real effort to make first party exclusives, but I like my Xbox because of the community. Whether that is the focus in the future remains to be seen.
Nintendo has the IPs to stay. I love their stuff, and anything with the Mario and Pokemon name can sell.
Sony is a toss up really. They got PSN which is in the red, and they made it free so the expectations of the consumer for it to continue to be free is going to get to them. Their IPs while console movers all combine pale in comparison to Microsoft's few efforts (at least in sales. not quality). Also they release stuff without supporting them like Move and the PSP. I felt like Capcom, Square, Falcom, and a few other Japanese devs were keeping that platform alive, and Sony just sort of allow the failure. Really, they should be moneyhatting quite a few IPs that were staples on the Playstation 2 that were created by 3rd parties.
So likely Sony
Nintendo has the IPs to stay. I love their stuff, and anything with the Mario and Pokemon name can sell.
Sony is a toss up really. They got PSN which is in the red, and they made it free so the expectations of the consumer for it to continue to be free is going to get to them. Their IPs while console movers all combine pale in comparison to Microsoft's few efforts (at least in sales. not quality). Also they release stuff without supporting them like Move and the PSP. I felt like Capcom, Square, Falcom, and a few other Japanese devs were keeping that platform alive, and Sony just sort of allow the failure. Really, they should be moneyhatting quite a few IPs that were staples on the Playstation 2 that were created by 3rd parties.
So likely Sony
If this thread happened 5 years ago, everyone would be saying it's Nintendo, and once easter boost is done, they'll go third party. In the end, it's an extremely volatile environment that makes this a pretty embarrasing exercise.
But whatever
thomasmahler
Moon Studios
Consoles will never disappear, just change in form. I could easily see Microsoft create a little tablet that you just put on your table and it streams directly to your TV. Then you take it with you and you keep playing, has all your Xbox content on it, etc.
The idea of a console that you have to hook up to your TV should disappear. And OnLive works pretty darn well here, I'm hoping that most of the next-gen content we'll also be able to stream immediately. I _love_ jumping into a game on OnLive without any installers or any crap just to try it.
Consoles = convenient. People will always like the convenient route. Ask Apple.
What is that based on? Sony and MS have always had competition, and when Nintendo did completely dominate, they were by far at their best.
So it's the PS2 hardware? That's nothing. They make their money on software royalties.
Sony unfortunately, which fucking sucks because I really feel like they push for innovation and quality. They've kinda been feeding us what we've damanded: Uncharted, SotC Collection, LBP, free online service, a powerful reasonably priced handheld. Random examples I'm aware, but man, I would hate to see them bow out.
Sure, but it's not like Sega had a long lineage of dominant consoles. The closest was the Genesis, and from what I read it was 3rd place in Japan, behind SNES and PC-Engine. And then by the time the DC died you had like 8 years of Sega being Sega.
The PS4 would have to be a PS3 level bomb for Sony to seriously consider getting out of the video games industry. I find that unlikely as I doubt Sony wants (or needs to) spend nearly as much as they did with the PS3. I don't think Vita's success or failure with have much of a factor on whether Sony bows out completely. At worse, they'll get out of the portable business and stick with home consoles.
HP_Wuvcraft
Banned
I honestly never expected Sega to stop.
Ignis Fatuus
Banned
No, read it again.
It depends on the region and which console. There's no denying that the Mega Drive/Genesis years were the peak in all three key regions for Sega though.
Agreed. In retrospect, the writing was on the wall. But when you're young and having a grand ol' time with your games and stuff, these financial facts don't really register as clearly as they do when you look back at it after the fact. All I remember is everyone being completely shocked when Sega pulled out once and for all. That had a huge impact on everyone; it wasn't simply an 'ah yes, of course' situation for most of us.
The 3DS what??
You really believe Sony only made $3B on the five best years of the PS2? That's moronic. Blizzard make more than that on five years of WoW.
Lagspike_exe
Member
PS3 has been the only real financial blackhole for Sony, although quite a big one. Now, if Vita and PS4 bomb, than it's a different story.
Sony. The PS3 wiped out the earnings from previous Playstation generations and Sony hasn't caught a break in the last 5 years (considering other divisions). PS3 is doing well now, but it was a rough ride and I don't think they could survive a repeat performance.
MS isn't going anywhere. They're clearly committed to their 3 screens and a cloud strategy with the Xbox being their only key to the TV (for now). I can imagine them going software and services as they partner with hardware manufacturers, but that's at least one more generation away.
MS isn't going anywhere. They're clearly committed to their 3 screens and a cloud strategy with the Xbox being their only key to the TV (for now). I can imagine them going software and services as they partner with hardware manufacturers, but that's at least one more generation away.
Raitosaito
Member
8/10
3DS was not a failure and Nintendo has a hell of a war chest. Sony, on the other hand...
Ignis Fatuus
Banned
Present a source that says otherwise then, since you're so obsessed with backing up claims.
By 2009 they had lost almost 5 billion on PS3.
Sony is the company that could financially fail out of the business. Microsoft though is the company that strategically may want out of the hardware business. If MS can get their software running living rooms without an Xbox they will. The MS transition could take years to happen but Sony's problems could dreamcast the PS4 a year after it comes out.
Nintendo is a very conservative gaming only company. Even if they face financial collapse they can release a cheap portable with a lineup of Mario titles and probably survive against smart phones for 5-10 years. For the worldwide market they need to start to understand the internet though.
Nintendo is a very conservative gaming only company. Even if they face financial collapse they can release a cheap portable with a lineup of Mario titles and probably survive against smart phones for 5-10 years. For the worldwide market they need to start to understand the internet though.
So they cut the price for the hell of it?
The PS2 sold more than 1.5 billion units of software, Sony's royalties on that alone (not to mention the hardware profit, and the first party publishing royalties) is nearly ten billion dollars. The PS1 wasn't quite as profitable, but even if it's half, Sony easily cleared eighteen billion dollars on both consoles.
You guys need to Support Sony more and buy your Vitas day one!
If I gave a crap about handhelds I might but I don't. It's a really sad thought because Sony is the one of the three that really serves my appetite.
Nintendo had some serious censorship issues with games until Sega started to win some sales (MK era).
MS tried harder on Xbox 1, when they had less sales IMO.
Then there's the infamous Sony PS1 Mega Man story, about how SCEA didn't want to approve 2D games initially.
Just trust me, everyone benefits from these guys having to fight for your dollars.
Foliorum Viridum
Banned
Competition is good in any creative industry. That shouldn't even be up for debate.
Same for me, except my interest in the business appeared when the Wii was first unveiled. Making a dramatically underpowered system with a TV remote-like controller and a very odd name that was targeting non-consumers? People could only have 2 reactions to that: "Nintendo is doomed" (which was the favored opinion at first on GAF and the entirety of the web really) or "I don't know why, but there's something to this." It somehow felt like the Nintendo of old (never had any interest in the N64 or GC) was back. It turned out to be true, but only partially.
When you're not interested in the business stuff you can't imagine that a company which was once Nintendo's only rival and a great developer would go down over a single generation and a year. I learned it the hard way as the Dreamcast was the very first system I bought at launch. Talk about bad luck.
Also, internet access was less ubiquitous, slower, and data was scarcer. I really had no idea SEGA was doing that poorly, or that Nintendo had so many resources (plus I became a hater when Zelda went 3D
). All I knew was that Sony was kicking everyone's ass and that that Emotion Engine stuff was BS that bordered on FUD. At the time I blamed Sony for killing SEGA by deceiving consumers into thinking the DC was far less powerful and everything on the PS2 was real. My first look at Sonic Adventure and Soul Calibur made me realize it was false of course.On topic: I'm glad the replies are almost unanimous: Sony most likely, Nintendo least likely.
sankt-Antonio
Banned
Gaf told me that Sony is loosing mad amount of money on the Bravia Tv Line.
Ignis Fatuus
Banned
Citation Needed.
Your math seems to call for Sony making nearly $10 in royalties on every copy of software sold. Not necessarily saying you're wrong but I'd like to see the source myself because that's a pretty massive cut we're talking about.
I don't trust you. Censorship is a minor issue to me compared to that quality of content. When Nintendo started having serious competition, their games were worse, now they've gained ground they're making better games generally again.
MS were better last generation because Ed Fries had taste, and he's gone.
Sony's royalty cut is about seven dollars, it depends on the publisher I believe. 7 multiplied by 1.5B is 10.5B.
shadyspace
Banned
They'll be new Mario games long after we're all dead. Likewise with Microsoft except replace "Mario" with "$$$". Sony doesn't have anything close to either to depend on.
Probably Sony. I love what they do but they have uphill battles on both the console and portable side. They take alot more risks with game projects but market most of them poorly. MS takes less risks and hits it big with their established franchises, and Live is a huge moneymaker for them. At this point they look stronger than ever. Nintendo's major franchises have so much mainstream appeal, which in turn sells hardware and keeps them relevant.
Palette Swap
Member
At this point, none. It will all depend on their strategy next generation and how they perform.
What I'm trying to say is that :
- Nintendo has this huge warchest from the DS/Wii years (and from before obviously). The 3DS hasn't been doing so bad but the fumbles of the 3DS launch and WiiU reveal have put a dent in their image of a savvy product developer. And everyone has been chasing for years now the self-fulfilling prophecy of smartphones/tablets devouring the handheld market. I'm not too worried about their ability to release and sell good, profitable products. On the other hand, the trust the rest of the world puts into them could eventually become an issue. Particularly if the WiiU doesn't launch well.
- Sony and MS are right now in a sweet spot where they're recouping their losses / are as profitable as they've ever been this gen. Both had rocky starts this gen and if history were to repeat itself, I guess someone might want to cut their losses and run? Or at least change/evolve.
Sony is probably in the worst position but for all we know, MS might at some point decide the service and software parts are more important/profitable than the hardware parts and drop making consoles to focus on the software/service layers. Which is kind of bound to happen anyway with cloud gaming coming someday. Having a console, establishing themselves as a heavy weight in video games was why MS got in in the first place. Now they've done it, they might not need a console to expand in video games.
Sorry if I'm rambling, it's awfully late here but my point is that anything can happen at this point. And I honestly have no idea what kind of devices we'll be using 10 years from now. I don't believe in the smartphone/tablet prophecy per se but I do believe other devices will emerge, neither consoles, nor handhelds, nor phones. Combined with networking evolution/integration, I do believe tablets and what we've seen of the WiiU are the closest thing to it right now. And whoever misses that or isn't able to cross that bridge will probably bail out.
What I'm trying to say is that :
- Nintendo has this huge warchest from the DS/Wii years (and from before obviously). The 3DS hasn't been doing so bad but the fumbles of the 3DS launch and WiiU reveal have put a dent in their image of a savvy product developer. And everyone has been chasing for years now the self-fulfilling prophecy of smartphones/tablets devouring the handheld market. I'm not too worried about their ability to release and sell good, profitable products. On the other hand, the trust the rest of the world puts into them could eventually become an issue. Particularly if the WiiU doesn't launch well.
- Sony and MS are right now in a sweet spot where they're recouping their losses / are as profitable as they've ever been this gen. Both had rocky starts this gen and if history were to repeat itself, I guess someone might want to cut their losses and run? Or at least change/evolve.
Sony is probably in the worst position but for all we know, MS might at some point decide the service and software parts are more important/profitable than the hardware parts and drop making consoles to focus on the software/service layers. Which is kind of bound to happen anyway with cloud gaming coming someday. Having a console, establishing themselves as a heavy weight in video games was why MS got in in the first place. Now they've done it, they might not need a console to expand in video games.
Sorry if I'm rambling, it's awfully late here but my point is that anything can happen at this point. And I honestly have no idea what kind of devices we'll be using 10 years from now. I don't believe in the smartphone/tablet prophecy per se but I do believe other devices will emerge, neither consoles, nor handhelds, nor phones. Combined with networking evolution/integration, I do believe tablets and what we've seen of the WiiU are the closest thing to it right now. And whoever misses that or isn't able to cross that bridge will probably bail out.
Souldriver
Member
- Nintendo - Is a games company pur sang, so is in it for the long run. If they bow out, the company is done. They make profit, but can't rely on other parts of the company if they're on a rough path, which makes them also kinda vulnerable.
- Sony - Isn't doing to hot in the games department, so I can see the company heads cutting off the "unprofitable devisions" of the company. Then again, as long as the company as a whole stays healthy, the games department can be carried even if unprofitable.
- Microsoft - Unlimited amount of cash, will continue the route they're on now until they have a dominant position on the market. It's fucking Microsoft.
Soooo... Sony's first to go, then Nintendo, lastly Microsoft. And perhaps it's nostalgia speaking, or inner fanboyism from my part, or rooting for the underdog, but I really don't like a scenario where either Sony or Nintendo are forced out the race, while fucking Microsoft is king. What a shitty vision of the future.
Ignis Fatuus
Banned
My response:
We know that Sony has lost at least $5 billion on PS3. You've yet to show any hard evidence that they made more profit than that from their first two generations.
It does not seem reasonable that Sony would be making $7 on every single copy of software when many of those titles were budget priced. Your numbers are guesswork.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Wait, this isn't a 'Nintendo is doooooomed' thread?
Man, GAF shifts fast.
Man, GAF shifts fast.
Infamous Chris
Banned
bubububu armchair analysts know everything!
Psychotext
Member
Damn, you should probably let Sony know. They'll be pretty upset that they screwed up their financial results to the tune of 18bn dollars.
(Hint, even if they did pull in that much in royalties, revenue != profit. With a little effort you can easily check their revenue / costs for the appropriate years.)
zerokoolpsx
Member
Financially, it would be Sony first. Nintendo has no debt and the 3DS is doing awesome in Japan. Unless the Wii U bombs or something. Nintendo and Microsoft are here to stay.
Here's a post that shows the figures from the financial reports of each company, although it was last updated with figures from Q3 2010: -
http://neogaf.net/forum/showpost.php?p=19625436&postcount=90
Up until Q1 2010, Sony had a separate gaming division, so the figures you see in the above post relate to that, which includes all hardware and software sales. The best 5 years for the PS2 brought them in $2.68 billion profit in total. Their losses in just 2007 and 2008 wiped all of that out and then some.
You found two poorly worded reports that actually report exactly what I speculated:
Sony lost the profits they made on the hardware of the PS2, which is a small aspect of their revenue.
Psychotext
Member
Stu, I did the numbers personally... that's not just their hardware profits. It's the profits of the entire division. On everything (gaming related) at the time.