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[tinfoilhatman]

Cutting edge in 2004 was a single gpu at 100 W
Cutting Edge in 2012 is 3 GPUs at 250 W
The entire 360 at launch was at 170~ W

It is not fucking going to happen.

I think we define cutting edge differently, I'm speaking from a feature set(ie DirectX ver and capability) perspective your talking about ALU\Mhz.

 

[DCKing]

Well, since the IGN rumor said final dev kit configs would be going out in August, probably not from an end of the year mass production of chips.

It could be internal versions, information from IBM's plant where the test run/configuration is done, privileged developers they're talking to, or info not based on what Microsoft has told developers before shipping them the chips. We don't know. It's not easy to say that it's obviously untrue.

I'm sure it's in the other thread but I don't have any interest in wading through it. You got some links I can read?

IGN nailing the Wii specs and creating havoc on internet forums worldwide.
IGN nailing what appears to be a non-final devkit of the 3DS. We have later learned that Nintendo enabled 3D a few months before launch - at this point Nintendo doubled the RAM and the GPU clock speed. The CPU and type of GPU were spot on.
IGN nailing the early Wii U devkit. We later learned that this was correct by people who had seen the devkit.

Although it's speculation, it could be that the source(s) for the last article were also source(s) for the new rumour.

 

[Maxrunner]

You know what I'm really starting to think? That this is all bullshit purposely being put out there by ms to fake out Nintendo. Think about it. Nintendo like it or not is their biggest competition not Sony. WiiU is releasing this year. Start sending out a bunch of fud and when e3 hits Nintendo is left with a high priced underpowered machine and Microsoft hits hard with something that not only was unexpected because of the rumors but totally destroys Nintendo by making the console simply undesireable. With that fisher price tablet and low specs up against something that CAN run samaritan AND have kinect 2 packed in WiiU will literally look like a childs toy.

Do you really think Nintendo would get xbox 3 specs buy going to forums???cmon...

 

[tinfoilhatman]

What do you think is more important to a console's lifecycle, the first few years or the last few years?

edit: Also, I disagree that the 360 wouldn't have had a shot at a late life surge if it were less powerful. The Wii is floundering because of a lack of software, primarily Nintendo software, not because it's underpowered. I think it would have been much less likely for the 360 to be as successful since they rely so heavily on 3rd parties, but I don't think it would have been impossible.

I totally disagree, once everyone got HDTV's in their living rooms(about the same time Wii sales started to slow) and figured out Wii wasn't HD they were like meh whats next?

 

[Maxrunner]

I'm not ignoring it, if anything it supports my argument. He's saying this is what we should demand out of next gen (PS, buy my UE4 engine that works really good on high technology).

He's advocating for and expecting a powerful next gen future, not a wimpy 6670 powered one. And again he likely has knowledge of some plans, and yes he likely did way back in late Oct 11. Especially since he hints as much with the "our plans a year ago" comment.

I like how you prefer to believe the wii U is 2x360 rumour(instead of 5x) but some how refuse to believe that xbox 3 is just 6-7 times the 360 one.....

 

[DCKing]

The 360 is the family console and that isn't going to change with a new launch. $100 360 will be the thing competing with Google TV/Apple Tv/other streaming boxes.

You got anything to back that up? Again: expectations do not dictate reality.

I don't think it's a realistic expectation either. The 360 hardware even after die shrinks is way too hot and large to qualify as a media box. It is more reasonable Microsoft is going to release a small, Kinect-focused, disk-drive less $99 ARM-based XBLA media box, like that one rumour said.

 

[guek]

I totally disagree, once everyone got HDTV's in their living rooms(about the same time Wii sales started to slow) and figured out Wii wasn't HD they were like meh whats next?

Wii started to fade ONE YEAR AGO

 

[tinfoilhatman]

I like how you prefer to believe the wii U is 2x360 rumour(instead of 5x) but some how refuse to believe that xbox 3 is just 6-7 times the 360 one.....

Wasn't Wii 2-3 times more powerful than the cube and 360 4-5x more powerful than Xbox1?

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Wii started to fade ONE YEAR AGO

Ye and flatscreen HDTV's got cheap about 1-1.5 years ago

 

[guek]

Wasn't Wii 2-3 times more powerful than the cube and 360 4-5x more powerful than Xbox1?

HAH

no

 

[herzogzwei1989]

Wasn't Wii 2-3 times more powerful than the cube and 360 4-5x more powerful than Xbox1?

Wii was 1.5x GameCube at least. In terms of raw performance. Although Wii had 88 MB of fast RAM compared to GameCube's 24 MB.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Wasn't Wii 2-3 times more powerful than the cube and 360 4-5x more powerful than Xbox1?

The Wii was at best 2x and closer to 1.5 x the Gamecube. The 360 was closer to 10 x the Xbox when all was said and done (EA at first claimed 4 x). Having a 50% increase to performance is nearly negligible from one machine to the next...you really need to have at least a 4 x performance increase to see any real noticeable differences.

 

[guek]

Ye and flatscreen HDTV's got cheap about 1-1.5 years ago

Man, if you really think the wii's lagging sales is due directly to HDTV adoption...

I'm just going to say again that power has never determined a console's success since maybe the NES. Whether you want to acknowledge facts or not is up to you.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Man, if you really think the wii's lagging sales is due directly to HDTV adoption...

I'm just going to say again that power has never determined a console's success since maybe the NES. Whether you want to acknowledge facts or not is up to you.

negative POWER was HUGE in determining Xbox1 success , that is completed undeniable.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

The Wii was at best 2x and closer to 1.5 x the Gamecube. The 360 was closer to 10 x the Xbox when all was said and done (EA at first claimed 4 x). Having a 50% increase to performance is nearly negligible from one machine to the next...you really need to have at least a 4 x performance increase to see any real noticeable differences.

OK so by that logic why is it so hard to believe the rumor

"wii U is 2x360 rumour(instead of 5x) but some how refuse to believe that xbox 3 is just 6-7 times the 360 one....."

I'm not saying I 100% believe it but it makes sense historically

 

[DCKing]

negative POWER was HUGE in determining Xbox1 success , that is completed undeniable.

What success are you even talking about? The 20 odd million consoles sold, or the huge marketing and product losses? Or the fact that they had to cannibalize it for a follow-up after four years?

 

[guek]

negative POWER was HUGE in determining Xbox1 success , that is completed undeniable.

wtf does this even mean. Xbox 1 was successful at getting the brand out in the open, that's about it. At a roughly 24 million installed base and billions in the hole, it was undeniably a financial and commercial flop (though still probably accomplished MS's initial goals).

 

[guek]

OK so by that logic why is it so hard to believe the rumor

"wii U is 2x360 rumour(instead of 5x) but some how refuse to believe that xbox 3 is just 6-7 times the 360 one....."

I'm not saying I 100% believe it but it makes sense historically

Hmm...believing xbox 1 was a success...being completely unaware of the power ratio between this gen and last gen...thinking the wii was a historically normal jump for nintendo consoles...

are you 16? 15? I know this sounds condescending, but it's an honest question.

 

[Log4Girlz]

OK so by that logic why is it so hard to believe the rumor

"wii U is 2x360 rumour(instead of 5x) but some how refuse to believe that xbox 3 is just 6-7 times the 360 one....."

I'm not saying I 100% believe it but it makes sense historically

I don't necessarily discard that rumor?

 

[tinfoilhatman]

wtf does this even mean. Xbox 1 was successful at getting the brand out in the open, that's about it. At a roughly 24 million installed base and billions in the hole, it was undeniably a financial and commercial flop (though still probably accomplished MS's initial goals).

Is it really that difficult to understand, the ONLY reason Xbox1 had success and opened the door to the console world for Microsoft was because it was so "powerful" and feature rich.

If ti wasn't for the fact that MS went all out on Xbox1 , we wouldn't even be having this conversation right now because MS wouldn't even be in the console market.

Shit I was around here when Xbox1 launched 75% of the people here didn't even believe Xbox1 would make it to market and the thought of MS dominating ANY region from a sales perspective was laughable at best.

The reason Microsoft is where their at today is BECAUSE of the mindshare inroads they made with gamers with the "power" , feature set and capabilities of Xbox1

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Hmm...believing xbox 1 was a success...being completely unaware of the power ratio between this gen and last gen...thinking the wii was a historically normal jump for nintendo consoles...

are you 16? 15? I know this sounds condescending, but it's an honest question.

If only you knew

Success ins't always measures by $$$ and sales #'s , the fact that 360 exists and were talking about Xbox720 PROVES that Xbox1 WAS a success.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

I don't necessarily discard that rumor?

Sorry not directed at you

 

[Krauser Kat]

I think we define cutting edge differently, I'm speaking from a feature set(ie DirectX ver and capability) perspective your talking about ALU\Mhz.

Adding DX11.1 effects to 6670 or type power card is not that big of a deal. There have only been 30ish games that support DX11 and almost none of them use the most of it except the crysis pack and Battlefield 3. if they used the 7000 series best 90-100 watt card it will be cutting edge. Most games on 360 are dx9 compliant and use little dx10 stuff here and there.

Hell the best looking game on the market arguably is DX9 only (witcher 2) if the new xbox only had a 6670 it would be cutting edge.

 

[DCKing]

Sorry not directed at you

Few people discard the 2x and 5x Wii U rumours (I think they're both trying to quantify the same thing differently). Nobody should disqualify this rumour either.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Adding DX11.1 effects to 6670 or type power card is not that big of a deal. There have only been 30ish games that support DX11 and almost none of them use the most of it except the crysis pack and Battlefield 3. if they used the 7000 series best 90-100 watt card it will be cutting edge. Most games on 360 are dx9 compliant and use little dx10 stuff here and there.

Hell the best looking game on the market arguably is DX9 only (witcher 2) if the new xbox only had a 6670 it would be cutting edge.

Your comparing PC development to console development, why would any PC develpoomer truly target 11.1 when less than 5% of the market has compatible cards?

With Xbox1 and 360 there were games using almost the entire useful feature set of the hardware capabilities at launch

 

[guek]

If only you knew

Success ins't always measures by $$$ and sales #'s , the fact that 360 exists and were talking about Xbox720 PROVES that Xbox1 WAS a success.

The 360 is not a success because the xbox 1 was powerful. The xbox "succeeded" in being a multi-billion dollar advertising campaign that led to acceptable but overall middling sales of the 360 in its first few years on the market. The 360 became a success for so many reasons other than the xbox 1's power, claiming it as some sort of proof that power is definitively important to a console's success is absolutely laughable.

 

[DCKing]

Adding DX11.1 effects to 6670 or type power card is not that big of a deal.

DirectX 11.1 doesn't even define new effects. It's mostly focussed on improving the API itself. There is only one feature in D3D11.1 that requires new hardware which is "target independent rasterization": an improvement of anti-aliasing in vector-based graphics (i.e. meaningless in the grand scheme of things). Everything else that is in D3D11.1 can be easily supported if they do pick the HD6670.

tl;dr: People attach WAY too much value to the version number.

 

[CadetMahoney]

If only you knew

Success ins't always measures by $$$ and sales #'s , the fact that 360 exists and were talking about Xbox720 PROVES that Xbox1 WAS a success.

pretty much, how anyone cannot see this was their plan going against a behemoth PS2 is beyond me. They probably never anticipated PS3 was going to flop their marketshare down the drain either. That was mostly their own doing though lol.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

pretty much, how anyone cannot see this was their plan going against a behemoth PS2 is beyond me. They probably never anticipated PS3 was going to flop their marketshare down the drain either. That was mostly their own doing though lol.

The fact that I have to explain that basic fundamental fact to people is mind boggling , yea Sony's fall from power was really their own doing but without Microsoft core console gamers would have had no choice but to stick with Sony.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

The 360 is not a success because the xbox 1 was powerful. The xbox "succeeded" in being a multi-billion dollar advertising campaign that led to acceptable but overall middling sales of the 360 in its first few years on the market. The 360 became a success for so many reasons other than the xbox 1's power, claiming it as some sort of proof that power is definitively important to a console's success is absolutely laughable.

The fact is without the Xbox1's power advantage the 360 most likely would not exist at all

Yes the 360 level of success is due to much more than just XBox's power advantage but again without that advantage 360 wouldn't even exist today so it's level of success is a moot point.

 

[guek]

The fact is without the Xbox1's power advantage the 360 most likely would not exist at all

There is no way you can make that claim. I might as well say that the PS2's power disadvantage is what ensured the existence of the PS3. It's nonsensical. Who is to say if the xbox crashed and burned on a marketing level MS wouldn't have still been able to garner some success with the 360? Who is to say they couldn't have reversed public opinion with fantastic marketing? The Wii sure as hell did. You're drawing a very thin line out of nowhere and making all kinds of assumptions.

 

[Kapsama]

What success are you even talking about? The 20 odd million consoles sold, or the huge marketing and product losses? Or the fact that they had to cannibalize it for a follow-up after four years?

Don't you know? The first Xbox built up the momentum for the 360 to conquer the video game market. LOL

 

[StevieP]

It's a sunk cost in every box that ships for the lifetime of the console.

The metro UI works fine with Kinect, but it works just as well with a controller. That's still not a good enough reason to require Kinect with every purchase. They aren't going to release a mainline Forza, Halo, or Fable title that requires motion controls, MS has been the most cautious of the three console manufacturers about implementing motion into their core games, despite the success of Kinect.

They have been hedging their bets with optional modes in a handful of titles, mostly 3rd party, and they're probably gauging consumer response in that regard. Kinect has been a huge moneymaker for them, if it comes down to selling it for $150 vs integrating it at cost ($50?), I think the bean counters win that argument every time. Remember, this is a company that still sells 120GB hdds for over $80, despite it being an integral part of the limited success of the first Xbox and their direct competitor shipping one with every box.

All first party MS studios have been told to include Kinect functionality in all of their future titles.

Cutting edge in 2004 was a single gpu at 100 W
Cutting Edge in 2012 is 3 GPUs at 250 W
The entire 360 at launch was at 170~ W

It is not fucking going to happen.

You forgot to mention "250w each" - which is why people expecting powerful GPUs in the next consoles are out of base with reality. 28nm, 22nm etc aren't going to help you here (hell, even Intel hasn't got 22nm down and they have the best fabs in the world).

I think we define cutting edge differently, I'm speaking from a feature set(ie DirectX ver and capability) perspective your talking about ALU\Mhz.

DirectX 12 does not exist, and will not exist anywhere close to in time for the release of the third Xbox.

I totally disagree, once everyone got HDTV's in their living rooms(about the same time Wii sales started to slow) and figured out Wii wasn't HD they were like meh whats next?

Software, software, software. It has almost nothing to do with TVs, power, etc etc. If you provide something that people want, people will buy it. Just in the Nintendo Investor Meeting thread, it was revealed that Mario Kart Wii sold 31 million copies. That's more than Call of Duty, btw. The only other game that "sold" more this generation was Wii Sports, which certainly isn't hinged on visuals.

The fact is without the Xbox1's power advantage the 360 most likely would not exist at all

No, it was the billions of dollars Microsoft poured into the market.
The same type of sunk-cost investment they've made integrating Kinect into their ecosystem, btw.

 

[dragonelite]

Without halo CE we wouldn't have halo:reach.

But serious maybe directX 12 will be made available when we have specialized hardware for raytracing dont know if you even want that.
But on B3D i read something about a company that mode that kind of hardware.

 

[thirty]

i wasnt referring to nintendos specs in my post. their done. if they think ms has something whatever planned nintendo will get comfortable.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

Its doubtful MS will put all their eggs in one basket, even Nintendo only went completely "blue ocean" for one generation. I'm sure they still want money from core gamers, especially considering Live subscriptions. Yes, the console will def be more conservative, but there are plenty of arguments as to why the 6xxx series is a worse choice than 7xxx series...and MS has to give their marketing department something to work with.

 

[Marco1]

Personally I think ms is very much aware of the fact that most multi-plats performed better on the 360 and was a strong advantage for them. So I can't see them handing that over to PS4 next-gen so easily.

 

[guek]

Personally I think ms is very much aware of the fact that most multi-plats performed better on the 360 and was a strong advantage for them. So I can't see them handing that over to PS4 next-gen so easily.

But that has little to do with power and more to do with hardware design and developer preference for the 360 as the lead platform. If the Wii U and nextbox are anywhere near each other in power, the PS4 is not going to be the lead platform unless it sells at PS2 levels.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Personally I think ms is very much aware of the fact that most multi-plats performed better on the 360 and was a strong advantage for them. So I can't see them handing that over to PS4 next-gen so easily.

Don't bother or waste your energy using logic

Stepping out of this argument to go snowboarding in the real world with real people, people here are living in an alternate reality or something.

 

[Marco1]

But that has little to do with power and more to do with hardware design and developer preference for the 360 as the lead platform. If the Wii U and nextbox are anywhere near each other in power, the PS4 is not going to be the lead platform unless it sells at PS2 levels.

The what is the point in providing a more powerful platform if the other two are so similar and selling so well ?
I hope if PS4 does launch later, it launches as a base console and controller layout but pump the money into the specs. And then launch with the slogan, that this console really does do it so much better.
Make the gamers very much aware that the Sony version can do things the others can't. Pay the devs for exclusive DLC that can't be done on the other two while pumping out first party titles that blow the others away.
Imagine the PS4 version of skyrim being the version with the mod level of textures and lighting.

 

[squidyj]

But that has little to do with power and more to do with hardware design and developer preference for the 360 as the lead platform. If the Wii U and nextbox are anywhere near each other in power, the PS4 is not going to be the lead platform unless it sells at PS2 levels.

....The hardware design was easier to work with because it wasn't an exotic architecture, this allowed devs to more easily work with the 360 and get more power out of it with less work, this lead to them having a preference for the 360. Not to mention MS policy with regard to multiplats, blah.

I don't see why, if PS4 is more powerful and manages to avoid an exotic architecture, devs wouldn't build on PS4 first and scale down to the other 2 platforms. It's a pretty standard workflow and PS4 wouldn't have to sell anywhere near PS2 levels to make it a worthwhile decision for devs.

 

[thuway]

This comment makes my head hurt.

GAF is going to have a meltdown when the Xbox 3 doesn't fully meet their expectations.

There is nothing wrong with GAF melting down over an underpowered next generation Xbox. Microsoft fostered the hardcore this generation.

 

[Vanillalite]

Honestly just a jump to DX10 would be enough as DX9 can do most of what's needed, but AA is kind of funked in DX9 unlike DX10 (and beyond obviously) along with certain shaders and such. No reason for MS not to use DX11 at this point though. Whether it's DX11 or DX11.1 isn't really going to be that big of a difference honestly. Like I said DX10 fixed a ton of the nagging stuff from DX9, and that's all I really ask for these days.

 

[nasos_333]

Whatever. They cannot market a huge powerhouse as a family console. You can market a lower-power console as a gamer's machine (e.g. PS2).

Why not ?

They already did it with 360

 

[StevieP]

Why not ?

They already did it with 360

That is not a "family" console.

This is a family console:

This is also a family console:

If the SoC rumours are true, the next Xbox will also be a family console.

 

[Marco1]

I agree StevieP, MS will be aiming to launch a console similar in size to the 360S with a similar noise level also.
Gone are the days of people upgrading and putting up with extra noise level just because the graphics are a lot prettier.
Remember consoles are not just for gaming anymore, we are expected to stream our movies and use apps now. The whole family are expected to use it not just little Jimmy upstairs with the door locked and the curtains closed.

 

[Plinko]

Don't bother or waste your energy using logic

Stepping out of this argument to go snowboarding in the real world with real people, people here are living in an alternate reality or something.

Still waiting for your "logic" to back up your beliefs. Saying that the first Xbox was a "success" and the reasons you give for why are absolutely ridiculous.

As for the rumors probably being true, the evidence was already posted earlier about the devkits--you ignored it and then moved on. You're self-destructing and now, it appears, are running away from the debate.

Have fun snowboarding with "real people," though.

 

[thuway]

I agree StevieP, MS will be aiming to launch a console similar in size to the 360S with a similar noise level also.
Gone are the days of people upgrading and putting up with extra noise level just because the graphics are a lot prettier.
Remember consoles are not just for gaming anymore, we are expected to stream our movies and use apps now. The whole family are expected to use it not just little Jimmy upstairs with the door locked and the curtains closed.

Why can't we have this with a more powerful machine at $399 that breaks even?

 

[guek]

I don't see why, if PS4 is more powerful and manages to avoid an exotic architecture, devs wouldn't build on PS4 first and scale down to the other 2 platforms. It's a pretty standard workflow and PS4 wouldn't have to sell anywhere near PS2 levels to make it a worthwhile decision for devs.

Because it doesn't happen today. PS4 would probably look similar to PC ports, but it wouldn't be the lead platform. It makes much more sense to make sure the game is built ground up for the largest and most profitable installed base and then port up. Otherwise you get a Wii situation where porting down leads to shitty ports.

 

[StevieP]

Why can't we have this with a more powerful machine at $399 that breaks even?

Because we are realistic?