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Nintendo 1H 2012 results - $367M operating loss, 5.06M 3DS, 5.5M Wii U forecast
- Thread starter Kazerei
- Start date
Smiles and Cries
Member
got bored so I read what Pachter had to say about the latest news
says 24 million software is unrealistic
he is disappointed with 5.5 WiiU sales expected 6-7 million instead but goes on to say after the core Nintendo fan boys buy WiiUs => “demand will probably wane once Nintendo’s core fan base has purchased the first 5 – 6 million units … we believe the console’s popularity will be somewhat limited beyond Nintendo’s core fan boy audience.”
Sheesh, tired of every news outlet giving this guy voice he loves the word fan boy makes him sound so fanboyish himself.
Still I have to agree, I am not seeing the software that will cause everyone to get 4 games per Wii U hope this Nintendo Direct later today clears how this 24 million number will happen.
I don't see it as unrealistic though if you take into consideration that people have 5 months to get 4 games. Your holiday gifts guarantees at least 2-3 games then you have a few months in 2013 to pick up a few more games for the system. This is not counting the DD titles.
PS. NEED FOR SPEED MOST WANTED FUK YAY
They probably meant to omit it from the EU part as well but just missed it. Official to me :3
says 24 million software is unrealistic
he is disappointed with 5.5 WiiU sales expected 6-7 million instead but goes on to say after the core Nintendo fan boys buy WiiUs => “demand will probably wane once Nintendo’s core fan base has purchased the first 5 – 6 million units … we believe the console’s popularity will be somewhat limited beyond Nintendo’s core fan boy audience.”
Sheesh, tired of every news outlet giving this guy voice he loves the word fan boy makes him sound so fanboyish himself.
Still I have to agree, I am not seeing the software that will cause everyone to get 4 games per Wii U hope this Nintendo Direct later today clears how this 24 million number will happen.
I don't see it as unrealistic though if you take into consideration that people have 5 months to get 4 games. Your holiday gifts guarantees at least 2-3 games then you have a few months in 2013 to pick up a few more games for the system. This is not counting the DD titles.
PS. NEED FOR SPEED MOST WANTED FUK YAY
They probably meant to omit it from the EU part as well but just missed it. Official to me :3
bigtroyjon
Member
They aren't shipping out all 5.5 million consoles on launch day.
StreetsAhead
Member
NSMBU
Wii Fit U
Pikmin 3
Rayman Legends
Zombi U
Monster Hunter HD (JPN)
Nintendo Land
You could probably get almost half of the sales with those exclusive titles.
Smiles and Cries
Member
that is very true makes the goal of the software that much harder, still not impossible or unrealistic. I find myself looking at 10 games by that time so maybe it evens out. I don't expect casuals to be the early WiiU adopters so I think most people with a pre-order at least has 2-3 games by the end of March. At a little minority that buys 8-12 games and you can reach this number. Still 5.5 is low as hell for such a number. So I wonder if DD eshop games are part of this number.
So,summing what Iwata said about European and American performance of 3DS
Europe - far from satisfactory before the XL; then, with the XL, better sales than last year after the markdown, and it had the best hardware sales in August; still doing good in September and first half of October, when handheld sales suffer the most
USA - not satisfactory, given the possibilities of the market; 3DS XL having the least impact at launch in US. September almost equal to last year, while October is better, so far ( not clear if it's just better than September 2012 or if it's better than last year's October, given the contest ).
And something interesting: it seems Pokémon B&W2 is helping 3DS in both US and Europe?
Europe - far from satisfactory before the XL; then, with the XL, better sales than last year after the markdown, and it had the best hardware sales in August; still doing good in September and first half of October, when handheld sales suffer the most
USA - not satisfactory, given the possibilities of the market; 3DS XL having the least impact at launch in US. September almost equal to last year, while October is better, so far ( not clear if it's just better than September 2012 or if it's better than last year's October, given the contest ).
And something interesting: it seems Pokémon B&W2 is helping 3DS in both US and Europe?
StreetsAhead
Member
That's interesting because the 2 apps didn't help the 3DS at all in Japan.
kobashi100
Banned
will layton shift hardware in the west?
3DS line is between 25-50k.
Weekly average in each month.
That makes sense and what I had thought originally.
Am I reading this wrong or is the 3DS only selling like 25k a month in America? Vita is at like 10k
Even though they aren't showing it they are doing weekly sales between the months
bigtroyjon
Member
the lines between the months are just a straight line connecting each month, the weekly sales are just an average for the month(since NPD reports monthly and not weekly.)
Cygnus X-1
Member
The problem in the west now is generalized: tablets are affecting handheld consoles, laptops and phones. It will be hard to find a way out if you-re not called Samsung or Apple.
Personally, I really believe that Nintendo should consider making games for iOS and Android. Even if they are not crushing like other japanese electronic companies (they have at least the time to wait and see), the change that is under way is so huge that I don't believe that any dedicated portable system will find an huge audience anymore in the west. At least, not to the extent of DS or Gameboy.
Nintendo should consider the opportunity: their games are so much better than the vast majority of games on smartphones that they would easily conquer the videogaming space on these platforms.
If New Super Mario Bros 2 shipped on smartphones, I bet that half of the worldwide smartphones owners would now play it.
It's not Nintendo's fault - not anymore after 3DS price cut. It's the market that totally changed and I believe there is no turning back.
Wii U is the only hope to return making high profits. The home console market is much less affected than the handheld space for now and here Nintendo will has a big possibility to reach high sales - especially since their controller is a tablet. But on the other hand, regarding the 3DS - I don't see it exploding no matter which games are launched. It's not a quality problem or not having enough third party games exclusivities. It's really a paradigm shift: the mass market do not want to buy a dedicated handheld system anymore and no-one cares that the gameplay suffered a massive downgrade.
VivaPapaya
Banned
There.. you said it yourself. The vast majority of games on smartphones are shit. And this is coming from a person who has more games on his phone than everyone else i know. Most og them are good for taking a shit - but that´s it. People are brainwashed by the numbers apple is announcing on every event - but the only company who really makes some money in the app store is Apple. Maybe Rovio but thats it. iirc they announced last year that they have spent 5 billion in revenue on all app developers. Since the beginning of the app store. So we have thousand of apps, thousands of developers and "just" 5 billion in revenue (last year) in i guess 5 years. Nintendo is laughing at these numbers. The real competition is the time people spent on their phones for things like facebook, minigames and so on. Time they won´t invest playing their 3ds.
Vita vs DS
PSP is the real surprise of that chart. It's selling better than in Japan (or was until the recent price cut) with zero new releases.
Also KH was a system seller for 3DS?
The 99 model is doing really well, as Iwata said. I'm surprised as well by the results.
Cygnus X-1
Member
Sorry, I had a problem. Give me a sec.
It also costs 99 $ and you can buy a lot of psp essential titles for 10 $
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
So looking at the charts, is PSP currently outselling Vita worldwide?
All thanks to a 99 euros model and lots of old games at 10. It's a good value proposition for someone who hasn't touched a PSP yet.
grimshawish
Banned
Europe+Japan. In the US its dead.
Cygnus X-1
Member
I live in London. On every single bus and in every tube there are people playing games on their smartphones. Not a single one with 3DS.
There are two possibilities at this point: either the gaming industry and Nintendo particularly, find a way to make dedicated handheld consoles interesting for the mass market again - and unfortunately it's not just a matter of having many AAA games anymore; or simply handheld gaming is going to become a smaller and smaller niche.
Videogames on smartphones now are just jokes - pulling out big numbers with so small profits. That's because the games are totally inexpensive.
Who said that Nintendo is forced to sell their high quality games at these low prices?
The point is: smartphones are the tool to access a large audience and it's nowadays much more effective than selling dedicated hardware. If Nintendo bring some big franchise on these platforms and sell them at 30-40$, for example - it's likely that anyway out of the hundreds of millions people an acceptable percentage will buy the game even if at relatively high cost, because the quality is much higher. The number of people will sure be lower than the number of people purchasing a 0.99$ game. But I bet that worldwide it would output bigger number than what Nintendo can achieve now on 3DS.
Sure, this is quite a bet: that's why I would suggest to just port NSMB2 on Android and iPhone. The game already is out, so risks are low to zero. It would be an interesting test.
If the game is too new: just port the original Super Mario Bros for the NES. I'm sure that even this game would sell like crazy - though it's almost 30 years old.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I know, I just meant overall total.
frankie_baby
Member
No matter how huge the overall size of the smartphone market may be the number that would be willing to pay more than a couple of bucks for something is probably smaller than the user base of handheld consoles, I know tonnes of people with androids and not a single one has ever paid for anything on them
Went there, done that already.
Expensive products on app stores don't get numbers....at all.
That's why you don't see stuffs getting sold at more than 15bucks.
Also anecdotal evidence time : I never EVER saw anyone with DS when it was breaking record.
I had a grand total of 1 experience where I actually played a game of NSMB with a total stranger in a train (and I traveled like something close to once every 2 months at the time for a distance of say Paris-Marseille (for the record that's not the trip I did)).
Meanwhile every time I take the train now, I get at least 2 or 3 streetpass so I don't think it's doing as bad as I thought it did.
It's certainly not as popular as the DS but it's probably doing GBA numbers here.
Also I have an Android phone and the only thing I paid money for was ...Toki Tori (you know the game I can also have on Wiiware and pretty much any device and this version has crappy music and unweildy interface).
I'm not even sure I'll pay for that Rayman game, that's telling how unwilling to pay I am when on a phone.
Cygnus X-1
Member
I agree that the outcome is totally uncertain. That's why it would be wise to make just a test. If it goes wrong, at least analysts and investors would finally shut their mouths up.
If not NSMB2 (just came out): just try with Super Mario Bros NES or Super Mario World and sell them at 1 to 5$. There is nothing to lose in my opinion. And at least they would prove if the platforms are really viable or not.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I live in NYC and while I rarely see a 3DS in the wild (maybe once a week), I get around 2-3 streetpasses daily on my commute. I see smartphones and tablets all the time, but I also rarely see people gaming on them. It's usually messaging/videos/ebooks/music/etc. I still see more physical books than anything really though.
edit: Personal experience but I also NEVER use my 3DS in public. It's always on me though.
edit: Personal experience but I also NEVER use my 3DS in public. It's always on me though.
Quick pixel-count'd so we know Vita situation in (part of) Europe too!
Vita vs DS
You should know by now that platformers (especially ones as demanding as Super Mario Bros) don't work on touchscreen only.
It barely works with an analog stick as it is.
Now if you were talking about tailored games (like say a special version of Pkmn or Style Savvy) there would be a reason to entertain the thought because right now it's looking like asking for a DS version of Halo in 2006...
And guess what? nobody's claiming that books are a threat to mobile devices as a result, isn't it?
Cygnus X-1
Member
In London the half of people reading books in the tubes are reading them on tablets. It's impressive.
Vita vs DS
Seems to me the vita is selling around 10-15k a week in europe. 6k in japan + 10k in US = 30-35k ww every week.
this thing is dead.
bit offtopic btw sorry
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
If Nintendo were to convert something to mobiles/tablets as a test, games like Nintendogs, Brain-Age, Freakyforms, Fluidity, Art Academy or Style Savvy would make more sense. Basically games that could be touchscreen/tilt sensor only without the need for an artificial gamepad overlay.
If they wanted something more "core" oriented, then maybe the DS Zeldas or Mario Kart could work. Mario platformers never would though.
If they wanted something more "core" oriented, then maybe the DS Zeldas or Mario Kart could work. Mario platformers never would though.
frankie_baby
Member
Maybe my eyes deceive me but with the the exception of week 40 vita ain't anywhere close to 15k
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I definitely have the opposite experience here. Even with young people, even on the L, weather worn books are pretty much everywhere at all times.
being positive here =P
MisterHero
Super Member
How are selling so much but losing money?!
smh industry
Upon further reading, they blame the exchange rate and the production costs of Wii U.
smh economy in general
smh industry
Upon further reading, they blame the exchange rate and the production costs of Wii U.
smh economy in general
Huh if they're selling the products at a loss that means that the more they ship the more they're losing money :/ (that is unless they recoup that money on software instead)
Yeah, the hardware is really cheap and the games too.
MisterHero
Super Member
If they're not having Wii U income at all, the exchange rate's going to kill them. It was already a huge problem when they were making profit.
I was talking about the 3DS but that's a good point too.
shinra-bansho
Member
Not sure if old, but...
Pixel counted the European home console hardware chart.
To nearest 10K I get around:
PS3 - 2.55M YTD, 1.61M W14-W41
360 - 1.75M YTD, 1.07M W14-W41
WII - 1.22M YTD, 0.65M W14-W41
I'll try my hand at the handheld chart, it's so much "busier" though.
Pixel counted the European home console hardware chart.
To nearest 10K I get around:
PS3 - 2.55M YTD, 1.61M W14-W41
360 - 1.75M YTD, 1.07M W14-W41
WII - 1.22M YTD, 0.65M W14-W41
I'll try my hand at the handheld chart, it's so much "busier" though.
grimshawish
Banned
I actually think theres a way to merge the two. Some sort of sliding hinge; the top screen lies on top of the lower screen; a sort of arm extension connects to a hinge on the bottom of the upper screen to the lower screen; you slide it, and the arm moves in an upwards direction, clicking into place - you now have a upper and lower screen; the lower screen is ofc much smaller than the top screen.
You also get two shoulder buttons when in one screen mode, something I think would be very beneficial to many touch screen games.
specialguy
Banned
Anybody want to work out NPD's from the Nintendo USA hardware graph?
I suppose the estimated numbers we get from that might not be any better than the rough estimates we already have.
I suppose one of these days I should try learning to pixel count these myself as well.
I suppose the estimated numbers we get from that might not be any better than the rough estimates we already have.
I suppose one of these days I should try learning to pixel count these myself as well.