Graphics Horse
Member
Europe taking the biggest shipment next Q sounds difficult to believe.
We don't have much data on it but I'd be surprised if they sold through half of their shipment at christmas.
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Nintendo posts $160M net income, cuts 3DS/Wii U/NDS/Wii forecasts
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
Europe taking the biggest shipment next Q sounds difficult to believe.
We don't have much data on it but I'd be surprised if they sold through half of their shipment at christmas.
MaxwellGT2000
Member
Very fair point, beginning of last gen a number of people projected PS2 levels of Wii sales, not it's chugging past 100 million with no hope of PS2 level sales, not a bad thing, the Wii was a huge success, heck the GC was a success, it's really making the best of what you have, if you're investing so much you need to make it big, then not making it big is a bust, but achieving it means a lot more money in the long run. At the same time marginal safe investments mean that low numbers can still be a really good success. What's not a success is selling at such a huge loss it takes the entire generation to just try to recoup some losses, which I still don't think Sony recouped those losses, but it's hard to judge after the restructure has started to hide it all.
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
Didn't Pachter say they'd never make a profit again?
Trust him as he's an expert.
Didn't Pachter say they'd never make a profit again?
He was misquoted. He said he'll never make up things to sound like a prophet again.
MaxwellGT2000
Member
Didn't Pachter say they'd never make a profit again?
God I hate that man, he's a walking controversy, he's not an analyst he's there to get hits.
Bidermaier
Member
indeed. they are not too bad
Numbers are not Wii Level success but they aren't bomba either. They are fairly average in the big picture. I pity All 3 console makers going forward if everyone is going to forever compare to wii results
Reduced software sales is logical since they ended up moving pretty much all the key software out of Q1.
Reduced software sales is logical since they ended up moving pretty much all the key software out of Q1.
Everyone knows he's an expert, since he uses such technical terms as "fanboys" and gives pretty deep analysis of the market saying "Those people surely make a lot of noise"
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
He's a wannabe celebrity.
He's like a TV judge.
I mean, yes, they might actually have a degree and be in that line of work for real but they're different and want to make waves and get attention.
Judge Mathis >>>>>>>> Michael Pachter though
ShineALight
Member
I think the heart of the ongoing argument in this thread is that some people don't agree with the premise, "so what if it's one of the top-selling consoles, if it's not meeting projections, it's not a success." There's a space between meeting overshot expectations and abject failure. Comparisons to all historical sales of platforms are arbitrary and the one true metric is projections, really?
The 3DS currently exists on the more comfortable end of that spectrum.
Couldn't someone as easily say, "so what if it's not meeting expectations, if its in the top console sales and not losing money anymore*, then it's not a failure." And with the strength of its lineup in Japan this year, it's not unlikely it could post better numbers there this year, and Pokemon alone will be interesting to watch in the US.
*which I don't think it is
The Wii U, of course, is another matter.
StreetsAhead
Member
What Nintendo games are the US/EU missing out on? Calciobit? Culdecept?
They could be faster at releasing stuff, but most stuff makes it over.
Annoying Old Party Man
Member
Things are clearly a mystery for Nintendo from now on. The Wii U is not the runaway success the company would hope it would be.
And it's clear that Nintendo is running out of time with the system, as I see it the Wii U could only pick up from summer and onward.
It now depends how well a cheaper Wii U, with a solid library of services and software can be positioned this holiday against its next gen rivals AND the soon-to-be dirt cheap Xbox 360 and Playstation 3.
I guess Nintendo can only hope that they can get across the message to the previous Wii users with a reduced price and some compelling games.
And it's clear that Nintendo is running out of time with the system, as I see it the Wii U could only pick up from summer and onward.
It now depends how well a cheaper Wii U, with a solid library of services and software can be positioned this holiday against its next gen rivals AND the soon-to-be dirt cheap Xbox 360 and Playstation 3.
I guess Nintendo can only hope that they can get across the message to the previous Wii users with a reduced price and some compelling games.
Nobody is saying the 3DS' record is impeccable, but forecasts are just that, forecasts. Some measurements are better and some are worse. Could the 3DS be selling better? Sure, no one is disputing that. Is the economic climate drastically different in 2013 than it was when the original DS launched? Yes. Are smart phones and tablets a huge factor and a competing market that didn't exist back then? Yes. It is impossible to accurately gauge the market, otherwise every company would be rich and nobody would post losses.
What I fail to see is how investors' opinions of the overall company is related to the health of a platform. The 3DS has solidified itself in Japan and while its performance is mediocre elsewhere by not showing growth, the only game they launched this holiday season in the western market to be a big title was Paper Mario, not to mention for every retail store in the US advertised the normal 3DS SKU or DSi XL's on Black Friday is proof that not only is there a lack of unified effort but that the DS' low price and large software library is a significant competing factor.
So following your logic you would not consider the best selling console of all time a success, if the company running it expected more? That's quite a way to look at things. With economic of scales and ever green titles, 3DS is poised to be a profitable source of revenue.
A 30 million userbase makes it a healthy platform, upcoming lineup is excellent, the PSP userbase is for Nintendo to win. I believe it will sell 15-20 millions a year for a long time to come.
MaxwellGT2000
Member
For whatever reason that seems to be a trend with Nintendo consoles, I mean the GBA was supported for a while after DS was announced, new screen for the GBA SP and then the Micro... once Micro bombed it was clear the GBA was dead and DS was the new king of the hill.
StreetsAhead
Member
DS started life as a 'third pillar' until it became successful.
I think Nintendo will have a hard time to lure core and casual gamers from Microsoft and Sony to get a WiiU since they don't have their own Halo or Gears of War.
Nintendo need to open their wallet and secure exclusive shooter content, either by buying content from a studio like Bungie or Epic, or making their own M rated brand.
Nintendo need to open their wallet and secure exclusive shooter content, either by buying content from a studio like Bungie or Epic, or making their own M rated brand.
michaelius
Banned
Looks like Wii will be hitting 100 milions around May-June
the next xbox and playstation will be competing against the 360 and ps3 as well. people aren't automatically won over by new hardware in droves unless it's a really big deal (ps2, wii).
nintendo fucked up when they didn't have a good idea for the system. if they had a good idea for it, they would have been able to showcase it through accessible software. instead, it's got a game with bunch of nintendo-themed areas that would only entice people already aware of their products.
the wii u should find itself in a distant third place this gen, unless things turn around dramatically (it has happened before, as with the xbox 360, ps3, and ds). it's possible that come e3, they're able to show enough games that people want, and turn the tide against perception. it's going to be hard when sony and microsoft will be showing tech demos and games that don't look like anything we've seen yet to steal some thunder.
MaxwellGT2000
Member
I have held firm the idea that the "third pillar" was talk for investors, just to keep them from thinking they're batshit insane and killing off the GBA 3 years into it's insanely successful short life...
As a Wii fan, I honestly don't understand why Nintendo expected the Wii U to be a big success.
The Wii had a lot of wow factor at first play. Whether with something like Wii Sports or something like Metroid, you were experiencing a new way to play games which worked fantastically for some genres.
The Wii U has a huge expensive controller (preventing it from being used for local multiplayer easily) which can do off TV play... where's the wow factor in that to make it immediately appealing, especially at a more expensive price than the Wii?
Now that they've gotten enough data to decrease their forecasts, we should start seeing whether they can create a real strategy to make the Wii U appealing or not.
The Wii had a lot of wow factor at first play. Whether with something like Wii Sports or something like Metroid, you were experiencing a new way to play games which worked fantastically for some genres.
The Wii U has a huge expensive controller (preventing it from being used for local multiplayer easily) which can do off TV play... where's the wow factor in that to make it immediately appealing, especially at a more expensive price than the Wii?
Now that they've gotten enough data to decrease their forecasts, we should start seeing whether they can create a real strategy to make the Wii U appealing or not.
Baki
Member
I don't know. US represents 90% of the NA market, so at best, its overshipped by 400k units. Again, I think their 4M shipped number by March 31st might be a tall order. Then again, I'm not sure on Nintendo's channel stuffing ability.
Nintendo is a difficult position, cut price now and it would look bad. Cut price at E3 and you wouldn't get enough time to capitalise on the sale-period for which the next generation consoles will not be available.
At any rate, I believe Nintendo is responsible for many of the fundamental problems with the platform. Although, they did learn from the 3DS and provided the system with suitable launch titles (I mean NSMB is a 20M+ seller) but they failed to court third parties again and failed to gauge how much the market would be willing to pay for the system. Also the online service is poor, which is quite key in this day and age.
Nothing1016
Member
That's exactly what I was thinking. If a platform draws profit overtime, then it is a success in my book. By others logic, the PS3 was an absolute disaster of epic proportions.
That's a big issue that I don't think many on GAF are addressing or even acknowledging. I do think people want new hardware but not for the price that Nintendo is asking (and by extension whatever Orbis/Durango will be) and until there is a better balance of games they're willing to purchase and reasonable cost for the system I think next gen is going to be very contracted at first.
The DS was a panic response to the PSP, witch they din't have full confidence in.
But thanks to Nintendogs and Brain Age... it came to demolish the PSP and left the GamyBoy brand unneeded, the DS brand reached a larger market than the Gameboy brand.
Magicpaint
Member
Basic should just be axed IMO
According to the various interviews we have it's more like the last pet project from Yamauchi more than anything.
I don't think so. At first the Wii U was only going to support one Wii U controller, later they changed this to two I believe (but it's very expensive). They really didn't have a proper strategy to make the Wii U oriented towards local multiplayer with the new controller.
it'll be hard to tell. under iwata, they went from their worst console ever to their best, and their best handheld to their worst. within each gen, the ds had a massive turnaround (to the point that people don't even seem to remember how poorly it was doing), and the 3ds was pretty disastrous, but the bleeding there was stopped at least.
for whatever reason, they were unable to do the same with the gamecube. iwata had predicted 50 million gamecubes sold right about the same time when the gc's forecasts were slashed from 6m to 4m, but they never managed to make any headway. of course, back then everything was united under the sony banner and nintendo was seen as staving off yet another newcomer, i guess.
anyway, if they want to turn the wii u around, they'll have to do more than just play the same five games again. they really should make a huge fucking deal out of stuff like bayonetta 2 and xenoblade ii. those are things you won't find anywhere else (well aside from versus, maybe), and might wet the whistle for the gaming fan who is waiting for more substantial games from the new generation.
They are hardly going to publicly say that Sony's entry into the handheld space made them shit themselves.
But I'm sure Yamauchi was the one whom encouraged the second screen for the product to stand out.
Annoying Old Party Man
Member
Sony and Microsoft have the third party software to help migrate the userbases from their previous systems.
As it is, the Wii U needs an angle (aka some hot software) and a competitive price to steal the spotlight next holiday. Xbox and PS3 should appear old next year with 3 new systems in the market, the question is whether people going for new hardware will be allured by a 250$ Wii U bundle or not.
KojiKnight
Member
I don't see how this is disastrous in any way. They just came off of losses, you can't expect that to instantly turn into a huge run of extra cash.
You can always want to get MORE money, but since they are at the very least MAKING money now and that will likely grow this year since they are now past the generation switch. I'd honestly expect microsoft and sony's gaming divisions to post losses going into next year after their initial switch as well.
You can always want to get MORE money, but since they are at the very least MAKING money now and that will likely grow this year since they are now past the generation switch. I'd honestly expect microsoft and sony's gaming divisions to post losses going into next year after their initial switch as well.
It probably won't be since some prefer white....tho they honestly probably should have just made both of them deluxe packages for 300 bucks.
ShineALight
Member
third party games will help, but i don't think it'll be as fast as you're assuming. the xbox 360 sold 8.3m units in its first seven quarters on the market. the ps3 fared slightly better- 14.41m in that time (for comparison, the wii was a monster at 29.62m in its first seven quarters).
and i know this gen has dragged on, but there might be something more to waning video game sales than just fatigue. i kinda think the only thing that might help is some genuine new blood. it would be cool if that might be valve.
I think that we had an interview by Iwata that put some light to the situation.
They cut the price rapidly in order to meet the forecast but it didn't took hold.
They cut their losses when they knew that Zelda wasn't going to do anything for the GC and delayed it, that's around that time that they tried to make the whole "try to make expanded audience play games" with Donkey Konga and other stuffs like that.
We even have a thread here about the multiple prototype Nintendo usually make that never see the light of day.
DS was a prototype that they thought they could sell, the 1rst gen DS even LOOKS like a proto.
Iwata even said that they had internal resitense over the DS design (and the Wii direction too, which is why they went with the WiiU)
Agreed. Personally I'd like to see the basic gone and black and white 32GB models for $250 by the end of the year. Take out Nintendoland, bung in some demo's and virtual console titles.
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
Isn't the real story here that the 3DS is underperforming? I mean it's down YoY in the quarter and will end the year with minimal growth in both hardware and software sales. Especially the software is underperforming and won't exceed the 50 million mark. For comparison the DS was already well above the 100 million for the FY at this point and was just getting started to heat up. These are really weak numbers for the 3DS and as it seems won't come close to the success of the DS.
The Wii continues to drop like a rock. I have said this before, but the PS3 can overtake the Wii both in software and hardware if it can hold it's drops respectable the comming 3 years. If this happens I wonder if the people here will acknowledge it as the winner of the gen, would be kinda ironic after 7 years of lol third place jokes.
WiiU isn't doing that good either, Nintendo clearly overshipped. It's difficult to tell right now by how much, all will be more clear next quarter.
The Wii continues to drop like a rock. I have said this before, but the PS3 can overtake the Wii both in software and hardware if it can hold it's drops respectable the comming 3 years. If this happens I wonder if the people here will acknowledge it as the winner of the gen, would be kinda ironic after 7 years of lol third place jokes.
WiiU isn't doing that good either, Nintendo clearly overshipped. It's difficult to tell right now by how much, all will be more clear next quarter.
Captain Smoker
Member
/edit
bigtroyjon
Member
The 360 hit 10 million in it's 5th quarter.