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Just to give some perspective about the PS4's potential launch performance...

Dr. Kitty Muffins

Dr. Kitty Muffins

Member
The PS4 is thought to have over 1 million units preodered with best NEOGAF estimates around 1.5 million for both the US and Europe. Multiple sources have quoted the over 1 million number with no firm update given in the months since.

According to Wkipedia, The Wii did pretty well at launch.(Who knew, right?) In fact, it is one of the best launches of recent memory (again, this isn't news in itself). I know wiki isn't the best source to use but I'm just trying to give a rough, ballpark idea of what we are looking at historically. If any Sales-Ager has better numbers, please post them as I want the most accurate data used in this discussion. I simply don't know where else to look for better data but any help is good.

From Wikipedia:

On November 28, 2006, Nintendo reported that it had sold over 600,000 consoles in the first eight days of launch in the Americas
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Nintendo announced on the following day that the Wii had sold 325,000 units across Europe in its first two days of sale, making it the fastest selling console across the entire European continent
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_launch

So, basically, day 1 sales of the PS4 should be good compared to one of the fastest sellers in history. We really have no idea what individual preorder numbers are for either territory but you can easily get the sense that it can beat one or both figures. And this is just pre-oders versus actual launch figures. I find it impressive that the PS4 is doing this at a much higher price point.

Edit 1: Sony shipped a little over 500,000 PS2 units to NA at launch.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2001/01/13/the-playstation-2-launch-success-or-failure

Edit 2: Pachter claims PS4 preorders now top 1.5 million:

http://www.vg247.com/2013/10/08/ps4-pre-orders-top-1-5-million-pachter-claims/
 
I dont think it's a case of "think it has a million pre-ordered". Sony have said as much. And they updated that recently to "substantially more than a million pre-orders".
 
wii had huge shortages for many years. Crazy to think of the numbers they could of had if they could get supply up.
 
UNCMark said:
I dont think it's a case of "think it has a million pre-ordered". Sony have said as much. And they updated that recently to "substantially more than a million pre-orders".
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I went further than saying it has been thought and went on to mention it has actually been reported.
 
PS4 will be the main console for many, but it certainly won't sell as fast as the Wii did in its first 3-4 years. It will launch very well though.
 
The Wii could have sold more at launch if you could actually find one on store shelves. It was near impossible to find for two years ... which is pretty remarkable.
 
They'll sell those pre-orders and then some

2013 Holiday season will be good for both PS4 and XB1 (Wii U TBD)

BUT PS4 will sell the most and I think continue to sell the most

Titanfall will be the only real competition for the first half of 2014 so we'll have to wait and see on that

COD Ghost pre-orders for X360 trump those of XB1 so I'm curious what the percentage breakdown of sales will be for titanfall across the platforms

I say 50% X360, 30% PC, 20% XB1

But that's my guess

McDougles said:
Having India and South Africa as 2013 launch countries will push them over the edge.
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Yep it's going to be a massive launch
 
Kind of an anecdote, but on Lebron James' facebook page he posted "ps4 or xbox1" and the resulting comments section is filled almost entirely with pro ps4 posts. I thought it was cool in that it highlights the interest level in that demographic. Seeing as Facebook is completely console neutral and very casual. It had like 13k comments.
 
ShaneDude said:
Kind of an anecdote, but on Lebron James' facebook page he posted "ps4 or xbox1" and the resulting comments section is filled almost entirely with pro ps4 posts. I thought it was cool in that it highlights the interest level in that demographic. Seeing as Facebook is completely console neutral and very casual. It had like 13k comments.
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You are confusing the overall facebook audience with the audience that would actually leave a comment on an pro athlete's facebook page about an unreleased video game system. two very different populations.

We already know PS4 has the edge among people who care about next-gen consoles... this doesn't really give much insight into the "casual" gamer or device owner.
 
pq2Yhim.jpg
 
statham said:
I always go for the underdog. makes life interesting.
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Don't think you're being totally honest there dude since you've pretty much always been a 360 guy and this gen the PS3 was the underdog, at least until most recently anyway.

Edit: Also yea... Wii U lol.
 
supersanni said:
"Next gen isn't going to sell much. Look at the Wii U."

PS4 is the return of the PS2.
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Preach it, brother. I think I will be crying when I pick mine up at launch day. Or when I'm playing it through the hours of the night. Such a blessing to have a console like the PS4.
 
I'm not getting paid from this but I'm really excited to see the sales because there seems to be a ton of demand everywhere. All of the current evidence shows that the PS4 is winning in US and UK so far but we don't know what will actually happen when it's in stores. I wonder how the word of mouth will spread when the casual market learns about PS+/F2P games (especially Planetside 2 and War Frame since majority of console gamers don't play on PC or have PCs that can run it well) and all of the improvements to the UI/PSN Store.
 
w1gglyjones said:
You are confusing the overall facebook audience with the audience that would actually leave a comment on an pro athlete's facebook page about an unreleased video game system. two very different populations.

We already know PS4 has the edge among people who care about next-gen consoles... this doesn't really give much insight into the "casual" gamer or device owner.
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You're implying that people who closely follow basketball are into next-gen consoles? I would say it's a better measure of casual gamers than gaming geeks...
 
Blanquito said:
You're implying that people who closely follow basketball are into next-gen consoles? I would say it's a better measure of casual gamers than gaming geeks...
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I'm implying that this is just a meaningless 'tally' because (among other reasons) people who voluntarily comment about next-gen consoles are into next-gen consoles. We already know those people favor PS4.
 
w1gglyjones said:
You are confusing the overall facebook audience with the audience that would actually leave a comment on an pro athlete's facebook page about an unreleased video game system. two very different populations.

We already know PS4 has the edge among people who care about next-gen consoles... this doesn't really give much insight into the "casual" gamer or device owner.
Click to expand...

I think you are under estimating the ability of those people who care to influence the casual market. Casuals aren't buying an XB1 or PS4, they are buying whatever their friends already own or recommending.

Wii didn't just have a meteoric rise on it's own. It was inexpensive and there were many early adopter gaming types who had a lot of fun with that system when it was novel.
 
w1gglyjones said:
I'm implying that this is just a meaningless 'tally' because (among other reasons) people who voluntarily comment about next-gen consoles are into next-gen consoles.
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Ah. Thanks for clarifying.

While it may be meaningless because there really isn't a way to measure who voted what besides counting all the votes up, I still believe that there has been enough information and advertising out about the new consoles that casual gamers are aware of what the options are. Now if that actually comes out in XB's or PS4's favor we can't know unless someone wants to volunteer counting them...
 
nib95 said:
Don't think you're being totally honest there dude since you've pretty much always been a 360 guy and this gen the PS3 was the underdog, at least until most recently anyway.

Edit: Also yea... Wii U lol.
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PS3 was not the underdog going into last gen.
 
VillageBC said:
I think you are under estimating the ability of those people who care to influence the casual market. Casuals aren't buying an XB1 or PS4, they are buying whatever their friends already own or recommending.

Wii didn't just have a meteoric rise on it's own. It was inexpensive and there were many early adopter gaming types who had a lot of fun with that system when it was novel.
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I don't disagree with what you wrote. Except that no one has shown how this affect may or may not impact next-gen consoles.
 
I wonder how high the pre order retention rate will be, If 80% follow through with their pre orders Sony could have a record breaking launch on their hands.
 
nib95 said:
Don't think you're being totally honest there dude since you've pretty much always been a 360 guy and this gen the PS3 was the underdog, at least until most recently anyway.

Edit: Also yea... Wii U lol.
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On what planet?

The PS4 will do just fine, in fact it will likely do better than PS3 in the states, but the you guys wanting a Wii or PS2 performance out of these two next gen machines are delusional.
 
Can't wait for next month, will be very interesting. I think that until the beginning of next year supply will be the deciding factor. If any console manages to sell considerable more units than the other it will gain allot of momentum and in turn we might have a lopsided gen.
 
Blanquito said:
Ah. Thanks for clarifying.

While it may be meaningless because there really isn't a way to measure who voted what besides counting all the votes up, I still believe that there has been enough information and advertising out about the new consoles that casual gamers are aware of what the options are. Now if that actually comes out in XB's or PS4's favor we can't know unless someone wants to volunteer counting them...
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Sure. I think many, many people *know* about these systems or will come to over this holiday. As far as "counting," I think the time for counting will now be in the actual sales charts ;)
 
It's cool and all that the PS4 is seemingly gonna sell like gangbusters. What I'm worried about is if there's gonna be server issues when I go to download all the free games from PS+ and when I go redeem my CoD: Ghosts code.
 
Back on topic, it's been impressive how prepared Sony is with stock. Enough stock to give away thousands (?) of PS4s before the official release date through Taco Bell, and to stock a ton of countries. They came in prepared this generation.
 
w1gglyjones said:
I'm implying that this is just a meaningless 'tally' because (among other reasons) people who voluntarily comment about next-gen consoles are into next-gen consoles. We already know those people favor PS4.
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This is a very broad assumption. Those people are voluntarily commenting on a star athletes page they frequent who brought up next gen consoles. That's kinda different than voluntarily commenting about next gen consoles on gaf or something. You can be a casual gamer and have an opinion on it. Unless your definition of a casual gamer is someone who has never heard of ps4 or x1 which imo, if you buy one or two games a year (lets say nba 2k or call of duty) you are definitely casual and you probably know next gen consoles exist.
 
I can only speculate on Europe, my guess is that the PS4 will sell out while the XB1 won't. My guess would be a 3:2 ratio in the UK and a 4:1 ratio in mainland Europe.
 
SpecDotSign said:
It's cool and all that the PS4 is seemingly gonna sell like gangbusters. What I'm worried about is if there's gonna be server issues when I go to download all the free games from PS+ and when I go redeem my CoD: Ghosts code.
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Everything will explode. It'll be great.
 
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