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[ClovingWestbrook]

I see the word Luck a lot on this page, and I'm getting hard.

...

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I see the word Luck a lot on this page, and I'm getting hard.

What about when the Phins lose the coin toss to the Rams for the #1 pick and then trade Luck to another team for a million picks?

 

[SephCast]

Take it for what it's worth, but my coworker's roommate's uncle is a Hawks assistant coach and he said "nba practices could start early as Monday."

Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[Black Mamba]

Most of those guys (Dirk and Kobe specifically) were calculated huge risks that had major chances of completely flaming out of the league but also huge upside so it wasn't pure luck. It is pretty lame that luck (with the lottery and with picks turning out) has so much to do with success, but that's sports. The NFL has the most competitive balance of sports and has a huge number of players and the Packers are the best team just by getting lucky on one pick.

Indy with Peyton, too.

To build a title team in the NBA you need

A. luck to draft HOF talent

B. luck to draft decent other players

C. Smart moves in Free Agency and Trading.

D. Luck not to get hurt.


In that order. 2004 Detroit is the ONLY team in my entire lifetime I can think of to buck this trend and ONLY because Malone got hurt and Kobe-Shaq feud blew up aaround the Kobe trial stuff.

Ira Winderman
Odd moment: Agent just calls, asks if the lockout is over. Me: "Huh?" Agent: "That's what I've been hearing." Uh, OK

 

[ph33nix]

What about when the Phins lose the coin toss to the Rams for the #1 pick and then trade Luck to another team for a million picks?

If the Fins are in position to draft him and somehow don't, I think my life will end right there.

I'm worried about the Colts out-sucking us though. They are really bad and I feel like they actually want to do this.

 

[diehard]

Who was the best PG ever?

Why Stockton of course. Unless you are counting people who just played at the 1, then its Magic.

 

[Rodeo Clown]

In that order. 2004 Detroit is the ONLY team in my entire lifetime I can think of to buck this trend and ONLY because Malone got hurt and Kobe-Shaq feud blew up aaround the Kobe trial stuff.

Or because Sam Cassell got hurt.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Why Stockton of course. Unless you are counting people who just played at the 1, then its Magic.

Not sure what you mean?

 

[reilo]

But that's kind of what you need. clippers getting Griffin means they have a shot, now.

Let's not go crazy now, they are still the Clippers.

explain to me how you fix this, then? How do you ensure HOF quality players get drafted by non-big markets.

You can improve balance in multitude of ways.

1) Improve the system so that teams can retain the good players that they do have, and not have to choose between luxury tax hell and winning games
2) The first happens if a team feels like they can maintain profitability and that can be achieved using revenue sharing
3) Guaranteed contracts have got to go. If a player is not performing up to his contract, teams should be able to let go of that player. That whole Darius Miles bullshit where he played 4 minutes for Memphis cost Portland $9mil. He was charged with felony possession of a gun a few weeks ago, fyi.
4) Provide incentives for those superstar players to want to play for a team regardless of the market. Find ways to prevent a Lebron or Shaq situation.
5) There are probably game related things that would eliminate some of the advantages that superstars receive today (ie, bring back hand-checking and get some good refs in there)

That might not be the silver bullet, but can't we all agree that would improve the league as a whole?

I can see why players would be opposed to that because a lot of those changes would mean reducing their salary and influence in the league.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Indy with Peyton, too.

To build a title team in the NBA you need

A. luck to draft HOF talent

B. luck to draft decent other players

C. Smart moves in Free Agency and Trading.

D. Luck not to get hurt.


In that order. 2004 Detroit is the ONLY team in my entire lifetime I can think of to buck this trend and ONLY because Malone got hurt and Kobe-Shaq feud blew up aaround the Kobe trial stuff.

I went more with Rodgers since A. He fell way further than he should have and B. He was way, way, way better than anyone expected which was very lucky. Peyton was better than expected, but everyone expected him to be great anyway and he was the #1 pick. Brady is probably the best (maybe only) example of pure draft luck with no draft skill leading to massive team success.

And the draft isn't all luck though a lot is...

 

[Vahagn]

Indy with Peyton, too.

To build a title team in the NBA you need

A. luck to draft HOF talent

B. luck to draft decent other players

C. Smart moves in Free Agency and Trading.

D. Luck not to get hurt.


In that order. 2004 Detroit is the ONLY team in my entire lifetime I can think of to buck this trend and ONLY because Malone got hurt and Kobe-Shaq feud blew up aaround the Kobe trial stuff.

Are you guys copying me? lol

 

[Vahagn]

Let's not go crazy now, they are still the Clippers.

You can improve balance in multitude of ways.

1) Improve the system so that teams can retain the good players that they do have, and not have to choose between luxury tax hell and winning games
2) The first happens if a team feels like they can maintain profitability and that can be achieved using revenue sharing
3) Guaranteed contracts have got to go. If a player is not performing up to his contract, teams should be able to let go of that player. That whole Darius Miles bullshit where he played 4 minutes for Memphis cost Portland $9mil. He was charged with felony possession of a gun a few weeks ago, fyi.
4) Provide incentives for those superstar players to want to play for a team regardless of the market. Find ways to prevent a Lebron or Shaq situation.
5) There are probably game related things that would eliminate some of the advantages that superstars receive today (ie, bring back hand-checking and get some good refs in there)

That might not be the silver bullet, but can't we all agree that would improve the league as a whole?

I can see why players would be opposed to that because a lot of those changes would mean reducing their salary and influence in the league.

None of this would have mattered if Roy and Oden had stayed healthy. Or you drafted Jordan, or you drafted Durant. If Roy and Oden are healthy, with LMA, you're the scariest team in the west right now because your coach outcoaches Scott Brooks 10 times out of 10 in the playoffs.


The league was more ridiculously top heavy when hand checking existed than it is now. a larger variety of franchises have made the finals this decade than in any previous decade. If anything the current game rules create more parity, rather than less because they make it easier for non superstars to have explosive offensive games...Jamal Crawford anyone?

 

[diehard]

Not sure what you mean?

Magic was a better player. Stockton was the better "point guard". Of course this hinges on the fact that i was barely old enough to watch Magic play.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Magic was a better player. Stockton was the better "point guard".

Why do you think Stockton was the better PG?

 

[thekad]

How did Darius Miles's guaranteed contract injure Oden and Roy? Or prevent the Blazers from drafting Durant?

If Lebron wanted to go to a big market, why did he go to Miami instead of Chicago or New York?

 

[Karakand]

NBA.com: Many people understand that NBA players as a select group of specialized, highly skilled workers. Are there many many instances, though, in which labor commands more than 50 percent of an industry's costs?

i have STRONG opinions about the nba's economics but i have to have an nba.com author ask an economist this softball question for me

 

[Black Mamba]

Let's not go crazy now, they are still the Clippers.

You can improve balance in multitude of ways.

1) Improve the system so that teams can retain the good players that they do have, and not have to choose between luxury tax hell and winning games
2) The first happens if a team feels like they can maintain profitability and that can be achieved using revenue sharing
3) Guaranteed contracts have got to go. If a player is not performing up to his contract, teams should be able to let go of that player. That whole Darius Miles bullshit where he played 4 minutes for Memphis cost Portland $9mil. He was charged with felony possession of a gun a few weeks ago, fyi.
4) Provide incentives for those superstar players to want to play for a team regardless of the market. Find ways to prevent a Lebron or Shaq situation.
5) There are probably game related things that would eliminate some of the advantages that superstars receive today (ie, bring back hand-checking and get some good refs in there)

That might not be the silver bullet, but can't we all agree that would improve the league as a whole?

I can see why players would be opposed to that because a lot of those changes would mean reducing their salary and influence in the league.

1) I'm fine with that. But let's remember, the only luxury tax "franchise" players that left were Lebron, Amar'e, and Melo. Lebron was leaving no matter what as we know why. Melo left for similar reasons. Amar'e was about the Suns afraid to pay out that long term contract due to his knee and I am very much in favor of 3 year contracts.

2. I agree with increased revenue sharing.

3. No, but shorter contracts should be there. Here's why non-guaranteed is bad in basketball. If a player is never guaranteed, he's going to play over selfish to pad his stats rather than work within the team. This can't happen in football because all individual stats help the team, with the sole exception of sacks. baseball is an individual sport, so team interaction is meaningless. I remember when the Clippers had like 5 or 6 FA one season and everyone thought that year would be awesome and they were garbage because they didn't play like a team.

4. Shaq left because Orlando low balled him. Lebron left to play with friends in miami and he's a pussy. he'd have left no matter what. The only thing to stop this is franchising. However, I'd like to remove sign and trades.

5. Because superstars didn't rule the 80s and 90s? Not that I disagree with better refs, just pointing it out.



Don't misconstrue that I'm not for some system changes (shorter contracts, no sign and trades) or more profitability (revenue sharing, lower salaries).

I just want to make it clear. Winning a championship requires almost always requires getting lucky in the draft by getting a HOF player and nothing you do short of ruining how the game is played will change this.

 

[reilo]

None of this would have mattered if Roy and Oden had stayed healthy. Or you drafted Jordan, or you drafted Durant. If Roy and Oden are healthy, with LMA, you're the scariest team in the west right now because your coach outcoaches Scott Brooks 10 times out of 10 in the playoffs.

And how does Portland overcome that without going into another rebuilding phase for 5+ years? See what I am getting at? You aren't addressing it at all. Quit giving me "it is what it is" and "oh shucks" replies.

The league was more ridiculously top heavy when hand checking existed than it is now. a larger variety of franchises have made the finals this decade than in any previous decade. If anything the current game rules create more parity, rather than less because they make it easier for non superstars to have explosive offensive games...Jamal Crawford anyone?

You have got to be fucking bullshitting me.

How did Darius Miles's guaranteed contract injure Oden and Roy? Or prevent the Blazers from drafting Durant?

If Lebron wanted to go to a big market, why did he go to Miami instead of Chicago or New York?

His $9mil got tacked back onto Portland's salary when they were deep beneath the cap. Instead of having $16mil to sign someone, they had $7mil. Don't be obtuse.

Miami metro is still ranked top 5 in the nation population wise.

 

[Knux-Future]

I'm not falling for it guys.

Once the BRI elephant arrives, shit will go down in flames.

Not this time NBA

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

How did Darius Miles's guaranteed contract injure Oden and Roy? Or prevent the Blazers from drafting Durant?

If Lebron wanted to go to a big market, why did he go to Miami instead of Chicago or New York?

Was Dwayne Wade there? No? He didn't want to go to Chicago since they have a tradition and huge expectations where they'd compare him to MJ and with the NYC? He'd have a mental breakdown daily with the NYC press and can you imagine how they'd have reacted if it were the Knicks in the finals and he performed like he did last year? He went to Miami because he had Dwayne Wade as a buffer and Miami isn't basketball town like NYC and there isn't tradition like Chicago.

 

[Black Mamba]

And how does Portland overcome that without going into another rebuilding phase for 5+ years? See what I am getting at? You aren't addressing it at all. Quit giving me "it is what it is" and "oh shucks" replies.

And the Lakers wouldn't go into rebuilding move if Kobe and Pau were like Roy and Oden?

Or Spurs with duncan and Ginobili?

Or Dallas with Dirk?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

One reason MLB and NHL have so much parity is because pitchers or goalies can get really hot in the playoffs to the point where other teams can't score, so maybe the NBA could try to get some more advantages on defense for centers so that a hot center can win his team the title. That would also be luck based though and maybe not feasible with roughly 1-3 centers in the league currently.

 

[Vahagn]

And how does Portland overcome that without going into another rebuilding phase for 5+ years? See what I am getting at? You aren't addressing it at all. Quit giving me "it is what it is" and "oh shucks" replies.

You have got to be fucking bullshitting me.

Me and Mamba essentially agree on everything. I've made all his points before, so I'll just address these right now.


They don't. NY was garbage for 10 years, so was Chicago, so was LA (More like 8 years)...That's the game, had you drafted Durant and OKC drafted Oden it would have been COMPLETELY different. Had Chicago drafted Beasley instead of Miami...the entire landscape of the NBA would have been different. It's just that important


Sounds to me like you want historically great drafting teams to draft great, and then small market teams that don't draft as well to be able to poach players off of them? Because if they can't poach players off them, and they can't draft...just what the hell are they gonna do?



Also, Kobe was considered a gamble, then he met with Jerry West, and Jerry West said time and time again he knew Kobe was going to be the best player of his generation and was the best of his draft. Everyone else thought he was a risk...good GM that knows what he's doing apparently.


Lastly...regarding hand checking. More teams have made the finals this decade than in any previous one. I've got to believe that a lot of second tier wings wouldn't be nearly as great if they had to deal with hand checking (Terry, Joe Johnson, Deng, Rip, etc.) Kobe, Bron, Wade, Melo can deal with it because they're strong and fast enough. But I don't even think Durant is a monster if you can hand check him. With his length and stick figure he would be pushed off balance super quickly with a simple shove.

 

[reilo]

And the Lakers wouldn't go into rebuilding move if Kobe and Pau were like Roy and Oden?

Or Spurs with duncan and Ginobili?

Or Dallas with Dirk?

That doesn't address anything. Now you're giving me the "other teams could get unlucky!" argument. I'm asking what can be done so that teams don't have to go through a crazy long rebuilding phase where the lose tons of money and their entire customer base?

Saying "be lucky" or "don't be unlucky" is not an answer.

Bunch of bullshit

Again, either give me reasons why the league works the way it does, or stop replying to me with "well, get lucky and draft a superstar because it is what it is".

 

[DY_nasty]

Why Stockton of course. Unless you are counting people who just played at the 1, then its Magic.

Agree. John Stockton is pretty much the model point guard in the same way that Jordan is the model shooting guard.

 

[Black Mamba]

One reason MLB and NHL have so much parity is because pitchers or goalies can get really hot in the playoffs to the point where other teams can't score, so maybe the NBA could try to get some more advantages on defense for centers so that a hot center can win his team the title. That would also be luck based though and maybe not feasible with roughly 1-3 centers in the league currently.

It's not just that. 1 score is HUGE in baseball and hockey. That means a single mistake can cost a game. Same with football.

basketball is 100 possessions a game, most of which end in a score.

In other words, the percentages work themselves out a lot more in basketball than the other sports because they do stuff a lot more times.

That doesn't address anything. Now you're giving me the "other teams could get unlucky!" argument. I'm asking what can be done so that teams don't have to go through a crazy long rebuilding phase where the lose tons of money and their entire customer base?

Saying "be lucky" or "don't be unlucky" is not an answer.

shorter contracts. 3 years. Like I said earlier.

Ken Berger
Team execs I've spoken with optimistic for deal by Monday, but cautious. One says gut tells him "this will blow up one more time."

 

[thekad]

lovinglebron

So Lebron went to Miami because they drafted Wade.

His $9mil got tacked back onto Portland's salary when they were deep beneath the cap. Instead of having $16mil to sign someone, they had $7mil. Don't be obtuse.

Miami metro is still ranked top 5 in the nation population wise.

That $9 million dollar difference didn't cause the Blazers to stagnate; injuries did. And whose fault was it that the Blazers paid a bum like Miles $9 million?

Oh, and:

With so much talk about how big market NBA teams have a better chance of winning than their small-market counterparts, here’s a quick look at some misconceptions about market size in the NBA.

Of the 29 U.S.-based NBA teams, 22 play in one of the nation’s top 25 television markets. Considering that there are 210 Nielsen-designated television markets in the United States, an argument can be made that there are zero small market NBA teams. The league’s smallest TV market, New Orleans, is 52nd.

That being said, some NBA markets are certainly smaller than others. Take as an example Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, the nation’s #16 market. With its 1.581 million TV homes, Miami is nowhere close to New York (#1, 7.515M), Los Angeles (#2, 5.667M) or Chicago (#3, 3.503M). It is, however, barely ahead of Cleveland (#18, 1.526M), Orlando (#19, 1.453M), and Sacramento (#20, 1.409M).

In fact, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and company play in a smaller market than the Timberwolves (#15 Minneapolis has 1.754 million homes) and Pistons (#11 market Detroit has 1.884 million).

 

[Vahagn]

Again, either give me reasons why the league works the way it does, or stop replying to me with "well, get lucky and draft a superstar because it is what it is".

What I've done is showed you why the league is the way it is, and why none of your suggestions will make a damn change. I understand you want a change because you're in a funk right now cuz you're team is on the downside and has no window to go up anytime soon...but that's the way it is. I wasn't calling for system changes in 2005 or 1995 cuz the Lakers sucked.


Also, answer this:

Sounds to me like you want historically great drafting teams to draft great, and then small market teams that don't draft as well to be able to poach players off of them? Because if they can't poach players off them, and they can't draft...just what the hell are they gonna do?

 

[Black Mamba]

STEIN_LINE_HQ Marc Stein
Example of "system" issue where NBA owners/players now agree? Sign-and-trades. WILL be allowed in new deal after fears they'd be outlawed

damn.

Marc Stein
BUT ... one sign-and-trade wrinkle sides still negotiating is whether teams over luxury tax will be allowed to partake in S-and-T deals

better

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

That doesn't address anything. Now you're giving me the "other teams could get unlucky!" argument. I'm asking what can be done so that teams don't have to go through a crazy long rebuilding phase where the lose tons of money and their entire customer base?

Saying "be lucky" or "don't be unlucky" is not an answer.


Again, either give me reasons why the league works the way it does, or stop replying to me with "well, get lucky and draft a superstar because it is what it is".

The only way to probably remove a lot of luck from the equation would be to force prospects to go to school for three years and eliminate the lottery. Then teams could also rebuild faster as the players would be more NBA-ready. Then shorter contracts to allow for rebuilding. However, in the short-term, teams that are rebuilding would be absolutely horrible for an extremely long stretch.

 

[reilo]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas

Don't give me that shit. Market-size goes beyond television sets.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

damn.



better

Why damn

 

[Knux-Future]

But it is just pure luck.

You have to get superstars via the draft. And the draft by nature is just pure luck.

So unless you want to change that system, the luck is all you got.

Sucks that Team have to suck for decades because of one bad mistake and they should find a way to fix it but how the hell can you do that without forcing Players to stay places.

The thing is that most of the changes won't get by the NBAPA. Guaranteed contracts are here to stay forever.

I agree with both sides of this argument though. Just that I don't see how you could feasibly fix it.

 

[SamuraiX-]

i have STRONG opinions about the nba's economics but i have to have an nba.com author ask an economist this softball question for me

Forget NBA.com, 90% of GAF probably believes in that exact same sort of thinking.

Make a topic about it.

 

[Black Mamba]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas

Don't give me that shit. Market-size goes beyond television sets.

Not to advertisers.

Why damn

I like the idea that you can't force a trade to another team and get your money in doing so.

Like the Melo thing. I don't like that.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Well over 90% of the superstars in NBA history were taken in the top ten so the draft definitely isn't pure luck.

 

[reilo]

Not to advertisers.

People only buy stuff they see on TV?

What I've done is showed you why the league is the way it is, and why none of your suggestions will make a damn change. I understand you want a change because you're in a funk right now cuz you're team is on the downside and has no window to go up anytime soon...but that's the way it is. I wasn't calling for system changes in 2005 or 1995 cuz the Lakers sucked.

I didn't ask for a history lesson. I asked how the league can be improved going forward. In other words, "it is what it is" is not an answer.

And wait a minute. Those changes would make no difference? You're smoking crack.

Also, answer this:

I never said that. All I said was that there needs to be improvement league-wide where getting lucky in the draft isn't the only way to win.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

YESSSSS, Dwight can't go to the Lakers now with no luxury tax team sign-and-trade and since Smith is too dumb to trade Howard before he becomes a free agent, YESSSSS.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

hahahahaha

IraHeatBeat Ira Winderman
RT @KBergCBS Team execs spoken with optimistic for deal by Monday, but cautious. One says gut tells him "this will blow up one more time."

 

[Black Mamba]

Well over 90% of the superstars in NBA history were taken in the top ten so the draft definitely isn't pure luck.

the higher the draft pick, the higher the probability of getting lucky.

 

[Vahagn]

I never said that. All I said was that there needs to be improvement league-wide where getting lucky in the draft isn't the only way to win.

You didn't but I did.


1) You need a superstar to win
2) Either you draft one or
3) you poach one off someone else.


You don't like Miami poaching one off Cleveland or LA poaching one off Orlando. So then if you have teams that always draft poorly (Blazers) and you don't want them to poach one...just exactly what are they going to do to win?


That's why none of your arguments will change anything, the league boils down to superstars and either you draft one, or steal one or both. Trying to make the superstars be less relevant by including hand checking will only make them MORE relevant because they can handcheck too. And they're usually better defenders then their average counterparts. Kobe would be even better than non superstar SG's if hand checking was allowed because he'd have a better chance of stopping his opponent then they would of stopping him. He has the skills to overcome handchecking, The Raja Bell's of the world won't.


The rest of the stuff was covered by Black Mamba

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

the higher the draft pick, the higher the probability of getting lucky.

Between 2002 and 2009 (Not judging Wall or Irving yet, 1998 to 2002 was weird with influx of high school and European stuff), almost all of the 1st overall picks were either all-stars or superstars. The exceptions were Bargnani (draft following introduction of one-and-done rule which crippled the draft) and Oden (injuries). I don't really think that can be called luck.

 

[reilo]

You didn't but I did.


1) You need a superstar to win
2) Either you draft one or
3) you poach one off someone else.

History lesson.

You don't like Miami poaching one off Cleveland or LA poaching one off Orlando. So then if you have teams that always draft poorly (Blazers) and you don't want them to poach one...just exactly what are they going to do to win?

Drexler, Arvydas, Porter, Kersey, Brandon, LaMarcus, Walton, Petrie, fuck off.

That's why none of your arguments will change anything, the league boils down to superstars and either you draft one, or steal one or both. Trying to make the superstars be less relevant by including hand checking will only make them MORE relevant because they can handcheck too. And they're usually better defenders then their average counterparts. Kobe would be even better than non superstar SG's if hand checking was allowed because he'd have a better chance of stopping his opponent then they would of stopping him. He has the skills to overcome handchecking, The Raja Bell's of the world won't.

"It is what it is", in other words you are not interested in changing shit because the system works for your preferred franchise. Gotcha.

The rest of the stuff was covered by Black Mamba

And Mamba agrees with me more than you do. Funny how that works?

 

[thekad]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas

Don't give me that shit. Market-size goes beyond television sets.

If you really think Miami is a big market team, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[DY_nasty]

We need trax to post in here and just shut this shit down

 

[thekad]

Between 2002 and 2009 (Not judging Wall or Irving yet, 1998 to 2002 was weird with influx of high school and European stuff), almost all of the 1st overall picks were either all-stars or superstars. The exceptions were Bargnani (draft following introduction of one-and-done rule which crippled the draft) and Oden (injuries). I don't really think that can be called luck.

Chance would be a better term. Talent evaluation matters.

 

[Duki]

why does reilo want so called parity anyway

all it means is that portlands next owner wont be able to spend his way to relevancy once their draft picks all inevitably have their knees implode

totally self defeating

 

[giri]

why does reilo want so called parity anyway

all it means is that portlands next owner wont be able to spend his way to relevancy once their draft picks all inevitably have their knees implode

totally self defeating

8/10

I see you finally stopped drinking and partying 6 days laters?

 

[Black Mamba]

Between 2002 and 2009 (Not judging Wall or Irving yet, 1998 to 2002 was weird with influx of high school and European stuff), almost all of the 1st overall picks were either all-stars or superstars. The exceptions were Bargnani (draft following introduction of one-and-done rule which crippled the draft) and Oden (injuries). I don't really think that can be called luck.

I would argue the #1 pick or so isn't luck in drafting but in getting the #1 pick.

Lebron was the obvious #1 pick, but Cleveland got lucky to get that pick.

Luck comes in from other ways. And looking at solely the #1 pick isn't fair. Top 10 was a good cutoff you originally stated.

 

[reilo]

why does reilo want so called parity anyway

all it means is that portlands next owner wont be able to spend his way to relevancy once their draft picks all inevitably have their knees implode

totally self defeating

Why does...

...wait, which team do you root for again?