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[mckmas8808]

Enderle Group is Rob Enderle's company. It's his article that lauched all this speculation that Wal*Mart was deciding the war and had chosen a single side to support.

It's working too-- the facts tell us Wal*Mart is planning to buy an order of cheap HD-DVD players, but the discussion here sounds like they've decided that HD-DVD is the One True Format and willing to go to war with studios and other retail chains to champion it. That's quite a leap, and the instigator of that line of thought has written similar articles about how Zune would outsell iPod last Christmas.

:lol :lol :lol :lol

You guys place your bets on this guy? Zune outselling the ipod? :lol

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

The difference is far greater than that tech-wise. It is not insignificant.

People buy the cheapest tech that's "good enough" not necessarily the best tech. Given the primary reason to upgrade is the picture quality, HD-DVD is "good enough." Given the features that are available on HD-DVD and not yet on BluRay, you could say it's better, at least for now.

I personally don't really care about the tech of either format. I bought into BluRay for studio support. I think HD-DVD fans are counting on that being able to change if the market decides it.

 

[Raistlin]

My eyes are fine as is my tv, and I am not saying dvds look better by any stretch of the imagination. I am just saying that I am pleased with dvds, and do not feel the need to buy a whole new collection in hd format. Sorry if someone people lose sleep over such opinions, but the world will go on.

I was just ****ing around.


Regardless, I doubt most people intend to completely rebuild their libraries. Certainly some titles may get replaced, but there are plenty people will just keep as DVD.

The point is that many people plan to purchase titles they don't already own in HD.

 

[CAPCOWNED]

Capcowned:

Some people back HD-DVD becuase it was cheaper, available first, did the tech right right off the bat, and has a stronger library of catalog titles at the moment. Those things being what they are, for a long time it looked like they might win the war-- and they still could (although IMHO very unlikely).

It's not irrational to back HD-DVD based on cost and early momentum and current library.

Of course, there is also the Alcibiades example, who pushes HD-DVD because he wants to see Sony fail. I assume that to be the minority.

I guess that makes some sense.

 

[Raistlin]

People buy the cheapest tech that's "good enough" not necessarily the best tech. Given the primary reason to upgrade is the picture quality, HD-DVD is "good enough." Given the features that are available on HD-DVD and not yet on BluRay, you could say it's better, at least for now.

No shit ... that isn't what my post was responding to

I personally don't really care about the tech of either format. I bought into BluRay for studio support. I think HD-DVD fans are counting on that being able to change if the market decides it.

I am hoping the superior format wins, and then studio support isn't a question.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I was just ****ing around.


Regardless, I doubt most people intend to completely rebuild their libraries. Certainly some titles may get replaced, but there are plenty people will just keep as DVD.

The point is that many people plan to purchase titles they don't already own in HD.

Ding.

I have 13 BD movies, of which only 3 or 4 are movies I already owned (and I own a lot of movies). Of those, they are all favorites, that also either had special features added for BD (Blazing Saddles) or that the DVD is poor quality (Goodfellas original release) or just plain one of my top favorite movies (Reservoir Dogs). Most are movies I hadn't gotten around to buying or are new releases.

 

[Kolgar]

Regardless, this sword cuts both ways ... Toshiba is basically alienating all non-Chinese CE's with this move. And I would argue that there is a much greater overlap between low-end and mid-level standalone units then there is between standalone BD players and PS3.

What other CEs are Toshiba alienating? Who else is making HD DVD players but them? :lol

I think RCA pulled out. Samsung and LG have combo players out or coming... but standalone players? I think it's just Toshiba for now.

By the time these Chinese players start regularly selling for $199, Toshiba-branded players should be going for $299 and up... Aren't they already commonly found for $349? So I don't think this'll undercut the big brands, and there's still room for high-end HD DVD units costing $600 and up.

 

[StoOgE]

I am hoping the superior format wins, and then studio support isn't a question.

and not everyone thinks BRD is the "superior" format. I havent seen a BRD that looks or sounds so good my HDDVD couldnt do it yet.. but my iHD is better than anything on BRD and I dont have to deal with the eventuality that is BR+.. enjoy that when it happens.

They both have their advantages, but I get tired of people acting like backing HDDVD makes you an idiot. Its not nearly as clear cut as BRD people would have you believe.

Edit: Onkyo and some other high end CE (Marantz?) have standalones coming out.. plus all of the chinese players that may wind up branded with other CE's names.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I swear when people start whining about 'HD-DVD fanboys' and stuff I almost start hoping for HD-DVD to win. I'm still sticking with BD, though.

 

[VanMardigan]

I don't own the dvd for any of the HD DVD movies I've bought. Then again, I never bought a ton of dvd's so these new formats come at a good time for me. Plus, buying the combo discs allow me to lend the movie out to family.

edited for clarity :lol

 

[gkryhewy]

I don't own any of the HD DVD movies I've bought.

DIVX redux confirmed?!?!?

Couldn't resist.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

No shit ... that isn't what my post was responding to

You made it out that the tech difference was significant-- but it's not, really. Not for what most people care about-- the picture.

Yes, BD can do better sound, but you'll find far, far fewer people who can tell the difference (or care) than who care about the difference between SD and HD. Hence my comment about "good enough."

 

[Kolgar]

Maybe I'm slow, but it just occurred to me that the Chinese players must be how Toshiba expects to reach in install base of "2.5 million players by the end of 2007" as stated in its CES 2007 press release.

I thought at the time that that sounded aggressive; now I get it.

As of January 5th, there are estimated to be more than 175,000 HD DVD players sold in North America, with new models in high demand. Using Nielsen data and retailer reports for title sales to date, the HD DVD studios projected an annualized attach rate of 28 movies per player. Based on an expected install base of more than 2.5 million players by the end of 2007, the HD DVD Promotional Group estimates HD DVD movie title sales to exceed $600 million in North America for 2007. This is more than 40 times the revenue accrued in 2006 by the format.

 

[Raistlin]

What other CEs are Toshiba alienating? Who else is making HD DVD players but them? :lol

A couple of others have been talking about making some standalone HD-DVD players ... I'd have to search for it (it's in one of the threads here) ... but I believe Hitatchi is one of them.

There will always be room for some high-end players, but the companies that were mentioned were more of the lower to mid-end companies. I can't imagine they are pleased.

Also, assuming HD-DVD takes off ... other CE companies would obviously like to 'play', but this kind of wipes out the low-end market entirely.

 

[Raistlin]

You made it out that the tech difference was significant-- but it's not, really. Not for what most people care about-- the picture.

It actually is ... or should I say can be.

Due to the current realities of the 'war' though, no one has pushed the BD. The combination of more effecient encoding (the new version of AVC Sony has) plus the fairly significant bit-rate advandage can yield a decent picture advantage.

Obviously assuming quality TV ... and source material that can use the extra bit-rate ... etc.

 

[Maxwell House]

A couple of others have been talking about making some standalone HD-DVD players ... I'd have to search for it (it's in one of the threads here) ... but I believe Hitatchi is one of them.

There will always be room for some high-end players, but the companies that were mentioned were more of the lower to mid-end companies. I can't imagine they are pleased.

Also, assuming HD-DVD takes off ... other CE companies would obviously like to 'play', but this kind of wipes out the low-end market entirely.

The MS supported single chip Broadcom solution (which is supposedly very cheap to manufacture) for HD-DVD will be available for Japanese CE companies to use as well. Chinese make a crazy amount of cheap DVD players, yet all the major Japanese CE players still make them too.

This isn't going to cause Japanese CEs to just drop support of HD-DVD. They will just make theirs' cheaper as well.

 

[KarishBHR]

can a mod please change the thread title to hd-dvd and not blu-ray

 

[Mrbob]

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback181.html

Not this retard again.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Enderle :lol

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10557

He also made this gem too:

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html

All that being said, the killing blow may have been done by Microsoft who decided to bring to market a $200 HD DVD option for their Xbox 360 which has been in market a year longer than Sony and is projected to have a near 20x installed base advantage by year end (10M Xbox 360 to 600K PS3). Note that both projections are aggressive but Sony was supposed to originally ship 2M PS3s into the market during the 4th quarter and actual numbers (given they had under 200K at launch) may be closer to 400K. And with a recall possible there is a chance they might not even make that. Add to this that the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive is for movies only, so each one counts for movie viewing while PS3s may not be used to watch movies and you have a situation where the active movie player advantage by year-end should be between 4x and 6x better for HD DVD over Blu-Ray.

Be that as it may, with a 4x to 6x advantage by year end, you’d have to conclude that HD DVD has reached a point where it can’t lose and Blu-Ray is only now in a position to ensure both platforms lose. That last option still appears most likely if the market doesn’t move aggressively to one HD platform.

I don't know how this guy has a job.

BTW he sounds like the KONEX of hi def. Everything he says the opposite happens. Blu Ray victory ensured!

 

[fse]

can a mod please change the thread title to hd-dvd and not blu-ray

That would be nice.

 

[Maxwell House]

He sounds like a MS shill, but it doesn't really change the reality that Wal-mart bought 2 million HD-DVD players for their stores this fall. There isn't really that much else that needed to be said in that article.

Everything else in there are things that seem pretty likely (IMO) considering that fact:

1. The Blu-Ray studios will have to rethink whether they want to continue to not have their titles on HD-DVD or not.
2. Wal-Mart very well could stop supporting Blu-Ray in their stores, or at least support them hardly at all.
3. It's very likely Wal-Mart went with HD-DVD because they were seen as the lowest cost solution.
4. Wal-Mart wants to get the next gen media format into living rooms right away.

 

[Mrbob]

HD DVD wins, PS3 is the most spectacular console failure of all time.

Bank it.

No one is going to want to be associated with a losing format.

 

[VanMardigan]

HD DVD wins, PS3 is the most spectacular console failure of all time.

Bank it.

No one is going to want to be associated with a losing format.

and change the "other" thread to HD DVD Takeover Watch :lol


Oh, what a fun year this will be..........unless you were praying for HD DVD's quick death

 

[kaching]

4. Wal-Mart wants to get the next gen media format into living rooms right away.

2 million players ain't going to do it. Did Walmart also happen to commission at least 5x times the number of movie titles available on the format, while they were at it?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

He sounds like a MS shill, but it doesn't really change the reality that Wal-mart bought 2 million HD-DVD players for their stores this fall. There isn't really that much else that needed to be said in that article.

Everything else in there are things that seem pretty likely (IMO) considering that fact:

1. The Blu-Ray studios will have to rethink whether they want to continue to not have their titles on HD-DVD or not.
2. Wal-Mart very well could stop supporting Blu-Ray in their stores, or at least support them hardly at all.
3. It's very likely Wal-Mart went with HD-DVD because they were seen as the lowest cost solution.
4. Wal-Mart wants to get the next gen media format into living rooms right away.

1: Only if HD-DVD sales dominate. If they continue to be split, expect no change in support.
2: No basis to assume this. They don't drop sales of one video console just because another is selling better. Did they not sell the Gamecube throughout its life?
3: True. No bearing on the other points.
4: True. They want to sell stuff. HD stuff is stuff. They'll want to sell a lot of players, and they'll have a lot of HD-DVD players to move. However, I don't recall them being the trendsetter for technology evolution-- more of a follower.

 

[Maxwell House]

The Taiwanese article also mentioned that the Wal-Mart HD-DVD players will play the new triple layer HD-DVDs, meaning a capacity of 51 gigs.

1. Most people seem tto think HDi is better than Blu-Ray Java
2. HD-DVD, according to the AVs forum, still has better picture quality overall
3. HD-DVD will now have a 1 gig size advantage.

So how is HD-DVD the inferior technologY?

 

[Maxwell House]

2: No basis to assume this. They don't drop sales of one video console just because another is selling better. Did they not sell the Gamecube throughout its life?

Wal-Mart bought 2 million HD-DVD players to sell as their own BRAND. That seems to me more than just selling the format. It seems like they are pushing the format.

 

[StoOgE]

It actually is ... or should I say can be.

Due to the current realities of the 'war' though, no one has pushed the BD. The combination of more effecient encoding (the new version of AVC Sony has) plus the fairly significant bit-rate advandage can yield a decent picture advantage.

Obviously assuming quality TV ... and source material that can use the extra bit-rate ... etc.

1) The difference between uncompressed PCM audio and Dolby TrueHD is zero. Dolby TrueHD is LOSSLESS. Its just a more efficient means of relaying that info.

2) BRD has better bandwidth, and on paper can use more for picture quality.. but in the real world the uncompressed audio stream is eating alot of that bandwidth, and at some point bandwidth isnt the limiting factor anymore, its mostly going to be quality of the master. All the bandwidth in the world isnt going to make a good master bad.

I have a Pio Pro FHD1 and recently upgraded to an tosh A-20 HDDVD player and I cant see any artifacting or screendoor effects. Hopefully that counts as a "quality" display by your standards.

The only real factor that could be an issue is getting longer movies on HDDVD. We will see with Grindhouse how limiting a factor the 30GB discs are.. considering King Kong is the longest and one of the best looking HDDVD's, I doubt its a real concern.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Wal-Mart bought 2 million HD-DVD players to sell as their own BRAND. That seems to me more than just selling the format. It seems like they are pushing the format.

So they don't sell electronics out of their own brand when they have a branded unit? Have been in a retail store lately? Stores don't generally go exclusive on stuff like this. I think even Circuit City sold DVDs when they were pushing DiVX, and that wasn't just their brand, that was their own technology initiative.

Stores sell what sells. If BD maintains its sales advantage, Wal*Mart will continue to sell it, even if they push HD-DVD more.

Willing to bet a month-long ban whether or not you'll be able to buy BluRay movies at Wal*Mart in December? I say you will be able to. Take the bet?

 

[mckmas8808]

He sounds like a MS shill, but it doesn't really change the reality that Wal-mart bought 2 million HD-DVD players for their stores this fall. There isn't really that much else that needed to be said in that article.

Everything else in there are things that seem pretty likely (IMO) considering that fact:

1. The Blu-Ray studios will have to rethink whether they want to continue to not have their titles on HD-DVD or not.
2. Wal-Mart very well could stop supporting Blu-Ray in their stores, or at least support them hardly at all.
3. It's very likely Wal-Mart went with HD-DVD because they were seen as the lowest cost solution.
4. Wal-Mart wants to get the next gen media format into living rooms right away.

They will lose too much money. They sell the PS3. People that buy the PS3 and that have a HDTV will probably buy some Blu-ray movies. Wal-Mart loses marketshare am total.

 

[VanMardigan]

1: Only if HD-DVD sales dominate. If they continue to be split, expect no change in support.

I disagree. I think if HD DVD can actually split the sales evenly with BRD, studios will reconsider their position eventually. Of course, if BRD continues to dominate, then the opposite is true. Even Universal would have to bail if HD DVD doesn't improve it's hardware/software sales, which is why this announcement is so important to the format.

 

[mckmas8808]

I disagree. I think if HD DVD can actually split the sales evenly with BRD, studios will reconsider their position eventually. Of course, if BRD continues to dominate, then the opposite is true. Even Universal would have to bail if HD DVD doesn't improve it's hardware/software sales, which is why this announcement is so important to the format.

Didn't Universal announce that HD-DVD would lose until this Christmas? :lol

 

[Ryck]

Man I don't care who "wins" I just want 1 format so I could invest in it already. After watching King Kong in Hd I can't wait to own one of these players.

 

[VanMardigan]

Didn't Universal announce that HD-DVD would lose until this Christmas? :lol

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnddddddddddddddd????????????????


I don't see the relevance there.

 

[Raistlin]

The MS supported single chip Broadcom solution (which is supposedly very cheap to manufacture) for HD-DVD will be available for Japanese CE companies to use as well. Chinese make a crazy amount of cheap DVD players, yet all the major Japanese CE players still make them too.

This is true ... but the timing was very different.

If the Broadcom chip is cheap enough, then maybe it will work out.

This isn't going to cause Japanese CEs to just drop support of HD-DVD. They will just make theirs' cheaper as well.

The problem is that might not be able to make them cheaper ... at least not yet.

 

[Raistlin]

1) The difference between uncompressed PCM audio and Dolby TrueHD is zero. Dolby TrueHD is LOSSLESS. Its just a more efficient means of relaying that info.

??? I'm talking about video.

2) BRD has better bandwidth, and on paper can use more for picture quality.. but in the real world the uncompressed audio stream is eating alot of that bandwidth, and at some point bandwidth isnt the limiting factor anymore, its mostly going to be quality of the master. All the bandwidth in the world isnt going to make a good master bad.

Go look at the VIDEO-ONLY bit-rates between the to formats.

As far as diminishing returns go, we aren't at the level with bitrates just yet.

 

[HokieJoe]

So they don't sell electronics out of their own brand when they have a branded unit? Have been in a retail store lately? Stores don't generally go exclusive on stuff like this. I think even Circuit City sold DVDs when they were pushing DiVX, and that wasn't just their brand, that was their own technology initiative.

Stores sell what sells. If BD maintains its sales advantage, Wal*Mart will continue to sell it, even if they push HD-DVD more.

Willing to bet a month-long ban whether or not you'll be able to buy BluRay movies at Wal*Mart in December? I say you will be able to. Take the bet?

Although I doubt that Walmart would so brazenly choose a 'side', I do feel that $199 players could open a lot of opportunities for the HDDVD format.

 

[BlueTsunami]

Oh god, the "diminshing returns" argument has made its way to video bitrates? :lol This really is a format war!

 

[Raistlin]

I disagree. I think if HD DVD can actually split the sales evenly with BRD, studios will reconsider their position eventually. Of course, if BRD continues to dominate, then the opposite is true. Even Universal would have to bail if HD DVD doesn't improve it's hardware/software sales, which is why this announcement is so important to the format.

Wait, so you are arguing that:

All BD-only (other than Sony) studios will go neutral if BD and HD-DVD split ...

... but Universal will only go neutral if BD continues to dominate?


:\

 

[Raistlin]

Oh god, the "diminshing returns" argument has made its way to video bitrates? :lol This really is a format war!

I'm pretty sure the "diminshing returns" argument is owned by the A/V communitee ... and this is an A/V format war.

I fail to see the funny?

 

[StoOgE]

??? I'm talking about video.



Go look at the VIDEO-ONLY bit-rates between the to formats.

As far as diminishing returns go, we aren't at the level with bitrates just yet.

And I say we have reached the level where bandwidth isnt the limiting factor. Prove me wrong. Show me a review anywhere from an objective sight that says "HDDVD has nothing that looks anywhere near this good". You wont find one, and thats coming from someone with a properly calibrated set that comes closer than any other 1080p set on the market to NTSC standards. I dont see banding issues, screen door effects, macroblocking or anything else on tier zero movies.

The limiting factor isnt bandwidth, its the master from which the HDDVD or BRD is made. And there are plenty of BRD only studios, why hasnt one of them just blown HDDVD out of the water with all of this bandwidth?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Although I doubt that Walmart would so brazenly choose a 'side', I do feel that $199 players could open a lot of opportunities for the HDDVD format.

I agree 100%. But several people here seem to think that Wal*Mart wants to actively kill BluRay and will attempt to do so. That's why I oferred the bet-- to see who would put their account where their mouth is.

Maxwell House, up for the bet?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I don't think it's a matter of diminishing returns, but rather the current encoding not using what's availble + the current viewer population not yet as picky about the quality because they're used to SD.

A lot of DVDs blew me away when the format was new that look terrible to me now. While I understand that most people don;t care, I see where Onix is coming from arguing for the best technology possible, since we will have to live with it for a while.

 

[Raistlin]

And I say we have reached the level where bandwidth isnt the limiting factor. Prove me wrong. Show me a review anywhere from an objective sight that says "HDDVD has nothing that looks anywhere near this good". You wont find one, and thats coming from someone with a properly calibrated set that comes closer than any other 1080p set on the market to NTSC standards. I dont see banding issues, screen door effects, macroblocking or anything else on tier zero movies.

Did I not say that they haven't pushed the format? There aren't any releases capping the bitrate ceiling.

The limiting factor isnt bandwidth, its the master from which the HDDVD or BRD is made.

That is true in some cases, and I stated that.

And there are plenty of BRD only studios, why hasnt one of them just blown HDDVD out of the water with all of this bandwidth?

There have thus far been few AVC BD50 releases ... regardless all studios aren't equal, especially early on (for multiple reasons).

My point is that on titles considered 'reference' for the formats, I've still seen what appears to be compression artifacts - particularly in dark areas. To try and argue what we've seen so far is the pinnacle of either format seems hasty ... similarly, so does arguing that bitrates are already sufficient.

 

[Mrbob]

Getting away from who wins for a second, doesn't it seem odd Wal Mart is pushing HD DVD like this. I mean, the numbers really don't look good for HD DVD. The format has sort of stagnated, while Blu Ray is the one which is making a much bigger push. If Blu Ray keeps on dominating like it has this year for nearly 10 more months, it seems strange Wal Mart would want to push the format which is currently getting its ass handed on a platter.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I think the mistaken word is "pushing." I don't think the move really can be called pushing, until we see what else they do. Making cheap players available for sale doesn't mean they're planning a blitz.

For that matter, we don't even know the details of the deal. Perhaps it's merely an option to buy that many, contingent on sales?

 

[Duke Togo]

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/24/hd-dvd-camp-unable-to-confirm-wal-mart-hd-dvd-player/

 

[Raistlin]

Getting away from who wins for a second, doesn't it seem odd Wal Mart is pushing HD DVD like this. I mean, the numbers really don't look good for HD DVD. The format has sort of stagnated, while Blu Ray is the one which is making a much bigger push. If Blu Ray keeps on dominating like it has this year for nearly 10 more months, it seems strange Wal Mart would want to push the format which is currently getting its ass handed on a platter.

I suppose it matters what the margin is on these things.

If they think they can sell a majority of them, and it's a high-margin item ... I'm sure they could care less if the format lives or dies.


Regardless, we don't even know if WalMart is 'pushing' them or not.

 

[Raistlin]

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/24/hd-dvd-camp-unable-to-confirm-wal-mart-hd-dvd-player/

W . T . F . ? ? ?








(I'm betting it's simply an issue of continuing negotiations ... the details probably haven't been hammered out?)

 

[Kolgar]

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/24/hd-dvd-camp-unable-to-confirm-wal-mart-hd-dvd-player/

My guess is it's Wal-Mart's announcement to make; not the HD DVD group's.

Still, we don't know for sure until we know for sure, you know?

 

[quest]

Getting away from who wins for a second, doesn't it seem odd Wal Mart is pushing HD DVD like this. I mean, the numbers really don't look good for HD DVD. The format has sort of stagnated, while Blu Ray is the one which is making a much bigger push. If Blu Ray keeps on dominating like it has this year for nearly 10 more months, it seems strange Wal Mart would want to push the format which is currently getting its ass handed on a platter.

Price price and price walmart wants hd players in peoples homes ASAP. They don't want to wait for sony to get players to a reasonable price. Walmart is getting these players at a great price 150 dollars each. The price will only keep dropping you think any current blue ray CE can even remotely match the price of these cheap players? Walmart is not stupid they know people will not pay 599 dollars for a movie player. But sell a player for 150 on black friday with the 699 LCD and you get lots of sales. Then they get people in the store each week to get new release movies at a higher margin than DVDs. Sony should of went to the chinese like toshiba. Instead sony banked on the PS3 single handedly winning the format war.

You also don't think best buy, circuit city ect won't be ordering these units to compete with walmart? You think they will stand by and let walmart sell millions of players and movies while they sell a few high end units? If the other retailers order as much as walmart it will help lower costs even more as economies of scale kicks in. I fully expect hd-dvd players for less than a 100 dollars come christmass 2008. Blu ray is in big trouble because of pricing.