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[kswiston]

I think graphics are going to plateau in terms of what is feasible under a workable budget fairly soon. There will be improvements, but eventually the labor required to produce increasingly hyper realistic character/environmental models will be too expensive.

I think we are going to see a shift towards an emphasis on immersive environments. Better physics, destructible environments (even more so than now), and better AI. I think there is still a TON of room to improve in those areas. Plus improvement in these areas will go a lot further in enhancing gameplay than slightly better graphics.

 

[HiVision]

I think the real question is what are Nintendo going to do for their next generation? How long is the Wii going to last and how are they going to out do it? Neural implants?

 

[mckmas8808]

I think that by next-gen MS and Sony will rather profit from the other demographic then lose from the one they're catering now.

Profit on day one? Sony has never done that before with the Playstation systems. What makes you think it will work for them?

 

[Neo C.]

You are wrong! The model still works. Sony will start making money off of the PS3 this year if I'm not mistaken.

So you don't expect a few price drops at least?

 

[Borys]

You know a Wii^2 with 360 graphics (you know it's gonna happen) wouldn't be that bad.

 

[felipeko]

Profit on day one? Sony has never done that before with the Playstation systems. What makes you think it will work for them?

They must change... PS3 surely isn't working for them either.
They are at what? Almost $3 billion losses so far. There's no way they will even break even this gen. (Of course winning the formatwars will give them enough profit to make it worth, but there's now way they will make a PS4 based on this strategy)

 

[MadOdorMachine]

I would bet that the leap will be just as profound. I think some people are underestimating just how much more room for improvement there is.

MS and Sony are not going to go the way of Nintendo. Nintendo better get on the HD bandwagon next run around because SD is going away.

I agree. I don't think we'll see a Playstation 4 for quite a long time though. I'm thinking around 2015. If they can continue to make improvements on PS3's graphics like they did on PS2 and with continued price drops, I don't see why this gen wouldn't last much longer than they have in the past.

 

[duk]

There will be a leap.

 

[ziran]

I agree with a lot of what the OP is saying.

Going forward console manufacturers would have to stupid to make dev costs even higher than they are on PS3/360, the mass market just doesn't care and those that do don't make up a big enough group to support every developer. Like today, some HD titles are doing really well, but the kicker is going to be from those that bomb. Bigger losses from these titles are going to persuade the console industry to go in the Wii direction imo, not in game design necessarily, rather console.

Graphically I don't expect much improvement from where we are today on PS3/360, but the systems will be much easier to program, cheaper and probably aimed more mass market, with at least something for this audience.

360, however, is in an interesting position. While I don't think it's expanded the audience it has gained many PC gamers and those PS2 owners who enjoy this stuff, so definitely has a big market for this kind of thing in NA and the UK, but diminishing returns are going to set in even for more hardcore gamers in terms of graphics. So, while the target audience of MS's next machine is unlikely to change, its hardware philosophy will.

The graphics arms race for home consoles is over.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

betting against technology always makes you look foolish.

Uh, what?

 

[Phife Dawg]

I agree. I don't think we'll see a Playstation 4 for quite a long time though. I'm thinking around 2015. If they can continue to make improvements on PS3's graphics like they did on PS2 and with continued price drops, I don't see why this gen wouldn't last much longer than they have in the past.

PS2 has such a long life because it was/still is the undisputed market leader. If this gen turns out like last and PS3 is stuck with 2nd/3rd place Sony can't afford not to make the move towards a new gen.

 

[Fuu]

The graphics arms race for home consoles is over.

It was basically like "The Rabbit and the Turtle" story. The rabbit was so confident it was going to win the race it stopped to take a nap. Then the turtle won.

 

[DaCocoBrova]

Nintendo sells almost half of all software in Japan and in the global market some estimates put them at near 40% of total game console software (home and portable). How can you say there is no competition. In a way everyone is competing for Nintendo's scraps.

Most Wii owners IIRC, own a PS3 or 360 as well. That would include me.

 

[Felix Lighter]

If Sony and Microsoft follow Nintendo's lead, I don't believe the market will sustain 3 consoles. If all 3 console manufacturers neglect the traditional gamer and focus on the casual gamer then a lot of money will be left on the table. The one big thing going for the traditional gamer is the amount of software we buy. The typical casual gamer can't hold a candle to a traditional or hardcore gamer when it comes to the number of games purchased.


Nintendo was in the perfect position to do what they did this generation with the Wii. They were a distant 3rd the previous generation. They already lost the non-Nintendo worshiping "hardcore" gamer to Sony 2 generations in a row. If they continued to follow the same path they were doomed to remain in that position. Now I think they have that part of the market cornered and Microsoft and Sony would be going into the next generation guaranteeing no better than 2nd again.

I think Microsoft and Sony should continue pushing hardware but also keep the casual market in mind. I don't see any other way that they give themselves a chance at keep their own share of the market while gaining some of Nintendo's. Also keep in mind that the Wii isn't only a huge success for Nintendo, it is also pulling more people into gaming and you have to think that some of those people will want to try the other platforms.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Most Wii owners IIRC, own a PS3 or 360 as well. That would include me.

This is mathematically impossible man.

 

[ToxicAdam]

I would say 90% of gamers are graphic whores (whether they want to admit it or not). Incredible graphics will always sell machines.


The Wii's success is because they have positioned themselves as the #2 console for hardcore and then expanded the base by attracting 30+ year olds (the NES generation) that have kids now.

 

[UntoldDreams]

That's like saying we should all be eating McDonalds from now on.

 

[Jonnyram]

mckmas8088, you are full of great ideas.

Because nobody will buy the system. If it wasn't for the Wiimote and great Nintendo games nobody will be buying the Wii.

That's one hell of a caveat there. If it weren't for the BD, noone would buy a PS3. If it weren't for the games, noone would buy a 360.

The PSP2 NEEDS built in 3G!!!! I hate having to be in a WiFi zone to get on the internet.

3G is virtually nonexistent in Japan, and that is unlikely to change by the next generation of handhelds. If anything, wifi will be more prominent. I see a conversion of cellular and wifi tech, where all devices will run off the same network, but I don't know if it's going to be 3G. Whatever it ends up being, I am 90% sure Japan will lead in this sector, thanks to population density.

Profit on day one? Sony has never done that before with the Playstation systems. What makes you think it will work for them?

If it can work for one company, it can work for them all. Sony must change their business plan for the next PlayStation. What worked for the PS1 and PS2 is not working for the PS3, and the financial impact is huge.

And Wollan, you are backing Home quite heavily, aren't you. Don't but all your eggs in one basket though.

 

[acm2000]

neXtBOX and PSFOUR will come out in 2009, both will be 4 times as powerful as their previous generation, both will shun motion sensing for full mind control, will come complete with personality replacements, turning us all into dribbling gamers who do nothing but buy and play games 24/7

why do people keep saying xbox 720? since when was the xbox, the xbox 180?

 

[ziran]

Of course, the really interesting thing is what will Sony do next? Because where do they stand, in fact do they even know?

MS = hardcore 'proper games'
Nintendo = simple, casual fun
Sony = ?

They believed they were mass market with the whole cinematic extension of what was PS2, but this isn't the case. It has, thus far, been shunned by the mass market, especially in Japan. The mainstream the world over has been caught by Nintendo, which is going to be very difficult for anyone to break while this audience enjoys what Nintendo does best, i.e. the simple, fun accessible game. Nintendo hasn't really changed their strengths, the difference today is they've refocused and found a way to market themselves and make consumers aware of what they do better than before.

Looking to the more hardcore gamers only, the 360 has many of these gamers outside Japan, and the fact the system hasn't been as popular in Japan could be simply because there just aren't as many of these gamers left in this region as thought. So far the sw sales of Japanese hardcore, HD content have been poor.

Sony's next move is going to be the most interesting. They've lost their ability to sell huge amounts of sw for 3rd parties. I think they're going to have real difficulty in convincing the industry to follow them again, after PSP and PS3 (when all said and done), just as Nintendo is having that difficulty now, but Sony just doesn't have the strength of 1st party Nintendo has (in terms of sw sales and sw selling the system).

 

[Fuu]

Most Wii owners IIRC, own a PS3 or 360 as well. That would include me.

Don't you mean "intend to own someday"?

 

[radioheadrule83]

I think one factor of the Wii's success is its position in contrast to its competitors.

The things they did well:

● The pure-white rebranding of the Nintendo name
● The word "Wii" turning out to be very memorable and a top brand
● The way the campaign expresses to people that Wii presents a 'new' experience...

All of that would have had less of an effect if the competition hadn't put out machines weighing in at $299+

But I think Nintendo knew that would happen. Nintendo are in the same business. They were probably banding about hardware that would cost that much themselves. I think they saw an opportunity to tier the home console business in a way that would position them as the most desirable and affordable machine for the broadest demographic. And they gambled that people could still buy into and have fun with Gamecube++ graphics. They were right.

Wii is cheap enough for smaller developers to get on board, and for gamers on a shoe-string budget to enjoy a new wave of gaming software. Its cheap enough that those interested in Xbox360, PS3 or both, will consider Wii as a second (or first) console.

I think its a very interesting question as to what the competition will do next. If one of them steps down to Nintendo's tier, they basically hand the higher-end tier off to the competition. So it comes down to what they believe...

If they believe that in time, with the reduction of prices, consumers will swing in their favour, begin to see the high-tech machines as attractive, and pick up more of them -- then Wii's success doesn't have to be viewed as being at the expense of their own. It can be viewed as a long term investment. Certainly, they may also believe that Wii's lifespan may be shorter than that of their own machines. I think that's fairly reasonable actually.

I think Nintendo are going to have to be on their toes in terms of interface. They've whacked both Microsoft and Sony upside the head in showing people *will* play something that controls intuitively but deviates from normal input devices... so what does that mean? Do we get something from Microsoft that includes motion? Multi-touch? Are Sony gonna go EyeToy crazy or dream up something amazing?

Aside from price, it's now Nintendo's main differentiator.

 

[felipeko]

Don't you mean "intend to own someday"?

I think he meant the other way around... Because i don't think the Queen wants a PS3/X360...

 

[gcfan2k5]

You are wrong! The model still works. Sony will start making money off of the PS3 this year if I'm not mistaken.

"Start making money"? Call me when the following two things happen.

PS3 makes back the ~$3bln its lost

360 makes back the ~$7bln the xbox and 360 have lost.



Until both of those happen, then no, the model doesnt still work.

 

[monkeylite]

I see your point. The next leap will probably be physics, user interactivity and A.I. Visuals are good enough already but those are the improvements I would like to see in the next generation hardwares.

 

[Doc Evils]

LAS VEGAS (Reuters) - Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) gaming chief Kaz Hirai hopes to turn a profit on the PlayStation 3 console business in the entertainment conglomerate's next fiscal year, fuelled in part by falling costs for the parts used to make the device.

"We want to get to the positive side of the equation as quickly as possible," Hirai, who is chief executive of Sony Computer Entertainment, said late on Sunday on the sidelines of a news conference at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

"The next fiscal year starts in April and if we can try to achieve that in the next fiscal year that would be a great thing. We are going through the budgets right now. That (profitability) is not a definite commitment, but that is what I would like to try to shoot for."

http://www.reuters.com/article/CMPTRS/idUSWEN326420080107?sp=true

Kaz on costs.

 

[Oneself]

If everyone follows the "Wii way" , gaming is dead... or at least I'll quit.

 

[mckmas8808]

mckmas8088, you are full of great ideas.

3G is virtually nonexistent in Japan, and that is unlikely to change by the next generation of handhelds. If anything, wifi will be more prominent. I see a conversion of cellular and wifi tech, where all devices will run off the same network, but I don't know if it's going to be 3G. Whatever it ends up being, I am 90% sure Japan will lead in this sector, thanks to population density.

If it can work for one company, it can work for them all. Sony must change their business plan for the next PlayStation. What worked for the PS1 and PS2 is not working for the PS3, and the financial impact is huge.

When I said 3G I was talking about a celluar connection. A celluar connection will always be bigger than WiFi. ALWAYS!!

And it can't work for Sony. It worked for Nintendo because they changed the controller to something that's different and unique. And it's good enough to the point that it didn't need a graphics boost. And it's cheap.

This is not in Sony's DNA. Ken K. f'ed up the PS3 pricing. Had the machine been $400 at launch it would have done sooo much better. And why would Sony jump out of the graphics area?

 

[mckmas8808]

"Start making money"? Call me when the following two things happen.

PS3 makes back the ~$3bln its lost

360 makes back the ~$7bln the xbox and 360 have lost.



Until both of those happen, then no, the model doesnt still work.

Did it work for the PS1, PS2, and PSP?

 

[radioheadrule83]

If everyone follows the "Wii way" , gaming is dead... or at least I'll quit.

What do you identify as the "wii way"?
This is a silly thing to say imo, and I don't believe you for a second

 

[Felix Lighter]

What do you identify as the "wii way"?
This is a silly thing to say imo, and I don't believe you for a second

Personally, if the Wii was the only console, I would go back to PC gaming.

 

[Jonnyram]

I'm not sure what next-gen hardware will be like, but I will say this.
Hardware needs to take a step back and they need to work on software.

Having OS upgrades every quarter is great and all, but it would have been better if it was all right in the beginning. Why add DivX now? Everyone wanted it 2 years ago.

And every single one of these console makers needs to sort out their online infrastructure. Outages, choppy video streams and poor download speeds on the best Internet in the world, ridiculously overpriced downloadable content, lack of voice chat, retardedly hard to use friend codes, stupid regioning policies and messed up DRM. All of you companies need your heads bashing together.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

When I said 3G I was talking about a celluar connection. A celluar connection will always be bigger than WiFi. ALWAYS!!

And it can't work for Sony. It worked for Nintendo because they changed the controller to something that's different and unique. And it's good enough to the point that it didn't need a graphics boost. And it's cheap.

This is not in Sony's DNA. Ken K. f'ed up the PS3 pricing. Had the machine been $400 at launch it would have done sooo much better. And why would Sony jump out of the graphics area?

A 400 dollar PS3 at launch wouldn't have been possible.

Hell, it's not possible NOW, but Sony had to do something to move the product.

 

[Fuu]

I think he meant the other way around... Because i don't think the Queen wants a PS3/X360...

Yeah, she's definitely in another castle altogheter.

 

[gcfan2k5]

Did it work for the PS1, PS2, and PSP?

PS1, PS2, and PSP didnt finish their respective generations in the red (PSP is already in the Black both quarterly and overall for Sony), Xbox, 360, and PS3 all will. The model doesnt work anymore.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Did it work for the PS1, PS2, and PSP?

I always find it interesting when people compare profits since Playstation introduction. Despite getting destroyed for the majority of those years, Nintendo was clearly the more profitable model. The Playstation spikes and valleys <<<< Nintendo's steady profit.

 

[nli10]

The leap will be there, but Sony and MS may both be more careful about the economics of their consoles.

And to add I think that the sensible option is to do something that Sony & Microsoft never really tried. Having two consoles at the same time.

Here I use a Sony/Nintendo Hybrid as an example.

The PS2 still gets games but nothing high profile and nothing too exciting, but this is the fault of it seeming old.
What if, in 2012 Sony launch the PS4 AND the PSThree at the same time? Same style case & controllers, with new motion controllers/touch pad/headset/duck sensor or whatever. Only real difference is that the PS4 has much more power, much more storage and all the next gen games too.

Then you release Sony Squiggle Sports, a fantastic game that uses the new controls and you pack it in with new PSThree and PS4 units, as well as selling the PS3 version with the controller spearately. The PS4 version is a graphical powerhouse and has many extra functions, but is similar in gameplay to the PSthree version.

This means you have your premature console like the existing PS3 that costs a little too much for mom & dad but has the power for us lot, and you have a new desirable product at the mom & dad price point that the kids actually want.

If the kids already have old style PS3 then they buy the new games and you proffit anyway so it's a more smooth transition to the hardware generation, and none of this really slow build up both the X360 & PS3 experienced.

 

[DjangoReinhardt]

I think the leap willbe pretty huge, I hope jaggies and tearing will be a thing of the past when the time comes.

Developers will always find a way to sacrifice performance for detail.

 

[Felix Lighter]

PS1, PS2, and PSP didnt finish their respective generations in the red (PSP is already in the Black both quarterly and overall for Sony), Xbox, 360, and PS3 all will. The model doesnt work anymore.

That's a pretty bold statement and I don't think that it's true at all. They may have both lost more than Sony or Microsoft predicted but it is still very early.

 

[Mindlog]

If all the consoles decide to do that I'd go back to PC gaming.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

That's a pretty bold statement and I don't think that it's true at all. They may have both lost more than Sony or Microsoft predicted but it is still very early.

The PS3 has lost more money to date than the PS2 ever earned. You can talk about it being "early" but the PS3 would have to sell to unprecedented amounts to make that money back.

 

[mckmas8808]

Having OS upgrades every quarter is great and all, but it would have been better if it was all right in the beginning. Why add DivX now? Everyone wanted it 2 years ago.

And every single one of these console makers needs to sort out their online infrastructure. Outages, choppy video streams and poor download speeds on the best Internet in the world, ridiculously overpriced downloadable content, lack of voice chat, retardedly hard to use friend codes, stupid regioning policies and messed up DRM. All of you companies need your heads bashing together.

AAAARRRRGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!! What is it about upgradable firmware that some people on GAF don't understand?!

It's not about "not having it at launch" it's about getting something that was never on your system at first. It's a bonus! Not something that you are getting that should have been there from the beganning.

It's hard as hell to have every single firmware upgrade that the PS3 and 360 has had on a launch console. And you Jonny of all people should know this. You know better!

 

[mckmas8808]

A 400 dollar PS3 at launch wouldn't have been possible.

Hell, it's not possible NOW, but Sony had to do something to move the product.

Of course it wasn't possible in it's current form with Blu-ray. Lets hope that Sony puts a blu-ray player in the PS4, upgrade the RAM to something like 2 GB, improve the CELL processor, slap a 100 GB HDD on the PS4, and put Wireless G WiFi on it.


Hardware wise that's all I need.

PS1, PS2, and PSP didnt finish their respective generations in the red (PSP is already in the Black both quarterly and overall for Sony), Xbox, 360, and PS3 all will. The model doesnt work anymore.

And the PS3 will finish in the black. EVERYONE knows this. Even Kaz himself said that by this year or next year the PS3 will start turning a profit.

 

[gcfan2k5]

Of course it wasn't possible in it's current form with Blu-ray. Lets hope that Sony puts a blu-ray player in the PS4, upgrade the RAM to something like 2 GB, improve the CELL processor, slap a 100 GB HDD on the PS4, and put Wireless G WiFi on it.


Hardware wise that's all I need.

Bluray isnt very expensive at all, the diodes are only a few dollars more than DVD diodes. The price of Bluray crashed less than a month after the PS3 launch. Id estimate the cost of the Bluray drive at no more than $50, and it wouldve been even less if it werent a slot loading drive.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Of course it wasn't possible in it's current form with Blu-ray. Lets hope that Sony puts a blu-ray player in the PS4, upgrade the RAM to something like 2 GB, improve the CELL processor, slap a 100 GB HDD on the PS4, and put Wireless G WiFi on it.


Hardware wise that's all I need.

I need good games. As long as I get them I don't particularly care about the tech inside the console.

I'm really surprised at the people who are saying "If the market was like 'X' I would leave". Man, tons of you don't care about good gaming at all do you?

 

[gcfan2k5]

Of course it wasn't possible in it's current form with Blu-ray. Lets hope that Sony puts a blu-ray player in the PS4, upgrade the RAM to something like 2 GB, improve the CELL processor, slap a 100 GB HDD on the PS4, and put Wireless G WiFi on it.


Hardware wise that's all I need.




And the PS3 will finish in the black. EVERYONE knows this. Even Kaz himself said that by this year or next year the PS3 will start turning a profit.

"Start turning a profit" means "stop losing money every quarter", it doesnt mean "make back the 5+ billion we will have already lost on PS3 by that point". They wont make that money back this generation, even if they start turning small profits here and there. Its the same nonsense Microsoft spouts about 360 "finally turning profit" from last quarter. They made what $160 million profit, but already lost 7+ billion.

 

[mckmas8808]

I need good games. As long as I get them I don't particularly care about the tech inside the console.

I'm really surprised at the people who are saying "If the market was like 'X' I would leave". Man, tons of you don't care about good gaming at all do you?

Better graphics, physics, etc make games better. I'm sorry but I'm quitting gaming too if MS and Sony don't upgrade their next consoles.

"Start turning a profit" means "stop losing money every quarter", it doesnt mean "make back the 5+ billion we will have already lost on PS3 by that point". They wont make that money back this generation, even if they start turning small profits here and there.

I know that and look what the PS3 has done for Blu-ray. Most people knew that Sony put the Blu-ray drive in the PS3 mostly for movies. I mean yeah it is making games easier to make and better in their own right, but without it being able to play movies Sony wouldn't have done it.

So lets say this year Blu-ray wins completly and HD-DVD is gone forever. Would you think that would be a small success story for the PS3?

 

[UntoldDreams]

According to this logic which appears to ignore value and only look at volume sales of cheap goods...

High end Lexus/BMW cars no longer have a place in this world.

We should all be eating McDonalds every day from now on.

You can sell off all your high end PC's. Getting a cheap one sells better.

iPods should have been destroyed by cheap clone knock offs years ago.

====
This issue is about COST and nothing else. In a year or so the cost of all the "Next Gen Tech" will be mainstream and it will probably sell like gangbusters.

Whats more interesting is that people are social animals who want other people to "Agree" with them. Feels good doesn't it?

 

[gcfan2k5]

Better graphics, physics, etc make games better. I'm sorry but I'm quitting gaming too if MS and Sony don't upgrade their next consoles.




I know that and look what the PS3 has done for Blu-ray. Most people knew that Sony put the Blu-ray drive in the PS3 mostly for movies. I mean yeah it is making games easier to make and better in their own right, but without it being able to play movies Sony wouldn't have done it.

So lets say this year Blu-ray wins completly and HD-DVD is gone forever. Would you think that would be a small success story for the PS3?

No i wouldnt, because both formats are going to remain ridiculously miniscule compared to DVD for at least another decade, and by then Digital Distribution will be king.

 

[felipeko]

Better graphics, physics, etc make games better. I'm sorry but I'm quitting gaming too if MS and Sony don't upgrade their next consoles.

Nintendo upgraded their console.. Just not as much as GAF wanted to.. I'm fine with what they did.