RiskyChris
Banned
Gadfly said:
You're mad. Last year MS sold what, 2.3 million in the same time period?
That's 1) without a price drop, 2) without Halo 3.
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360/PS3/WII: Wii Takeover watch
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You're mad. Last year MS sold what, 2.3 million in the same time period?
That's 1) without a price drop, 2) without Halo 3.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Last year, they had the respective other console launches with all the hype that came with it and only one blockbuster.
This year, they are guaranteed a hand-ful of blockbusters.
I think they will sell like 3 million during the holiday months this year.
This year, they are guaranteed a hand-ful of blockbusters.
I think they will sell like 3 million during the holiday months this year.
What do we consider holiday months? November + December?
I think it would be quite the effort if the 360 was to get over 3 million. I don't see it happening. Especially if it stays at those prices ($350 is still too expensive). 2.5 million is more realistic I think, and even then, that would be a great achievement. It only sold 1.6 million last year in those months.
I think it would be quite the effort if the 360 was to get over 3 million. I don't see it happening. Especially if it stays at those prices ($350 is still too expensive). 2.5 million is more realistic I think, and even then, that would be a great achievement. It only sold 1.6 million last year in those months.
titiklabingapat
Member
Some would argue that Halo 1 was the system seller, not Halo2. But at the same time, Halo 3 is already a sequel to an established franchise, and those who will most likely play Halo 3 would have gotten a 360 early on in anticipation.Gadfly said:
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I include January in Holiday months, actually, since kids spend their kholiday cash on games and systems oft-times. 
Nov-Dec-Jan
and many people, but I don't think most, have purchased a 360 for Halo already. I think we will definitely see a sales spike. Not monumental, but sales of the 360 will not be below 250k/mo for the rest of the year from September on.
Nov-Dec-Jan
and many people, but I don't think most, have purchased a 360 for Halo already. I think we will definitely see a sales spike. Not monumental, but sales of the 360 will not be below 250k/mo for the rest of the year from September on.
RiskyChris
Banned
AlteredBeast said:
September NPDs will be most adorable!
titiklabingapat
Member
2 million, I'm thinking? I don't think any of their stuff can stand up to Halo 3/Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Brothers numbers. Some will do good numbers but I don't think they have a bona fide Wii Sports/Halo 3 like system pusher.Gadfly said:
Let's see, double to 160k for the price drop for July, 130k for August, 120k for September, 130 for October for, 300k for November, 800k for December and 300k for January.
RiskyChris
Banned
titiklabingapat said:
That seems generous, though I never paid attention to GC or XB December sales. I should go look up some old data...
titiklabingapat
Member
I didn't wanna get cruxified by the inevitable rash of replies so. :lolRiskyChris said:
milanbaros
Member?
titiklabingapat said:
If they do those numbers I don't think there will be any chance of catching up. The Oct/Nov/Dec months can really widen the gap.
titiklabingapat
Member
500k for me in NA.Gadfly said:
RiskyChris
Banned
TTP said:
There are still a lot of casual Halo fans who haven't jumped.
Well, I remember someone saying that Halo 2 pushed the Xbox to 700k the month it was released. That was a November though, and the system cost $149. So who knows.
This Christmas is going to be hard to predict. Too many variables.
- How many Halo fans have already jumped in?
- Will the price drop have any effect?
- How many Wii's have Nintendo been holding back?
Should be interesting.
This Christmas is going to be hard to predict. Too many variables.
- How many Halo fans have already jumped in?
- Will the price drop have any effect?
- How many Wii's have Nintendo been holding back?
Should be interesting.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
sine the game is released towards the end of the month, I am guessing 350k for September 360 hardware.
BishopLamont
Banned
Wii and Xbox360 will be neck and neck during the holiday season, While Wii might be in more demand, it is heavily supply constrainted. Xbox360 on the other hand will be in heavy demand during the holidays and will have the supply to fulfill it.
PS3 will keep get holibumps.
PS3 will keep get holibumps.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
legend166 said:
But its effect on hardware most likely is not. I remember back in my old Best Buy days, people would still buy the XBox almost exclusively for Halo in 2003.
If Halo 3 can manage to break ground on that level again, sales are going to only go up and up until January or February, but will remain on top 20 charts for at least a year.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Gadfly said:
True, but at $499 (and partially at $599), will the buy-ins be low once again. The system needs another pricedrop along with its stellar holiday lineup to truly overcome potentially damning Holiday sales. Regardless of what they do as far as price goes, the system deserves to sell well with the lineup they have for the holiday.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
legend166 said:
Ratchet and Clank hasn't been a system seller since the first one, though, imo.
But I think that often times, the new, exciting franchises and games are the ones that push console sales.
legend166 said:
When Sony announced their finanacial results, they predicted they will sell 11 million PS3 in FY07 and in order to get there they need to have a very good holiday.
This is from their financial statement and not a PR release. I don't take guidance given in financial statements lightly.
Gadfly said:
People need to get over this thinking that financial statements are gospel and can never be wrong because they were written by a multi-national corporation.
Sony have completely screwed up so far in everything they've done with the PS3. They have obviously shown that as a business, they can be completely and utterly retarded. They can, and most likely will, do it again.
If one game has system seller written all over it (as much or more than FF oder MGS), it is GT5, both from sales of the predecessors and from what Prologue already looks like.legend166 said:
Not yet a full game what comes out this holiday season, but I think it will make a very nice bump too.
ShockingAlberto
Member
My financial statement says you owe me $50.Gadfly said:
Make with the cash.
Yes, I am. I hope you don't think I am a Sony fanboy. I am not.Taurus said:
People do not intentionally lie in their financial statements. They can be sued for that or lose investor's confidence for a long time. Remember, MS had to revise their projected shipments as soon as it became clear they will not meet their goal despite negative PR effect it created for them. (although MS is known to be very conservative when it comes to their financials and giving guidance to investors)
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
But we did have about 12 months of Xbox 360 selling by itself. It had a whole summer of 200K whereas Wii is kicking butt with more competition now. Yeah, it's a big variable to try and remove but if we are gonna make a guess, Tiki is making a good guess. The 360 didn't have as big of a stigma with the failure rates and had some decent games. Price would have slowed down the industry.PantherLotus said:
titiklabingapat
Member
Of course not. They do, however hope.Gadfly said:
titiklabingapat said:
Most people wouldn't fully payoff a $50 game, no matter how great the series, even a month before it comes out until reviews hit, launch hype kicks in, or friends start talking about how great it is.............yet you believe these same people WOULD spend $400 on a console because of the same said game?
titiklabingapat
Member
It's Halo.jimbo said:
Stop It said:
True, but you can't pull target numbers out of your ass either. You are allowed to be off a little bit but you can't make unsubstantiated predictions. You have to tell people afterward why you were off by so much and even then investors and analysts will not forgive you for being wrong (no matter how honest you have been).
Why not give them the benefit of doubt and maybe they know something we dont such as the market data that shows MGS and FF will move a lot of units (although that would be post holiday) or a substantial price drop.
Gadfly said:
What it all boils down to is that Sony think the PS3's strategy will work. They wouldn't have made the PS3 like it is if they didn't think their current strategy was the best they could go with. It turns out, that at least from the perspective of many GAFfers, that the strategy isn't very good at all because of the price, etc, etc, etc. Sony, however, being the ones who thinks that their strategy is good overall, will have what we consider, overly optimistic shipment projections. Sony chose the strategy because they thought it'd bring good sales (and other reasons of course), and for that very reason, they think PS3 will have great sales. They may be right. I personally don't think they are.
That said, Sony also stuffed the channel full of PSPs. So did MS with 360.
titiklabingapat
Member
In Sony's case, they'll probably just let it go and absorb the losses since Bluray, in thier view, "won".Gadfly said:
Microsoft can afford to keep the 360 division running below expectations because they want to beat or is "beating" Sony at the moment.
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