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[Xisiqomelir]

Assume U.K. is 40% of Europe.

I think this is the part that doesn't work out. Britain buys more consoles than Europe, and the 360 is a lot more popular there than it is elsewhere.

 

[sprsk]

(thanks bildi for hosting)

 

[schuelma]

In that context it works but I thought the 360 isn't doing even nearly as good elsewhere than in the UK making it closer to 50% of the sales. But I have no recent numbers to back that up with so I guess I can live with it.

We're probably overestimating 360 Europe sales, or at least I am..but I decided to try and give Microsoft every benefit of the doubt so people don't think I'm fudging the numbers.

 

[reilo]

(thanks bildi for hosting)

But images am banned?! Sonycowboy am said so!

 

[camineet]

every 30 days it has to be asked...can the Wii do this for 5 years...will the games hold up

no it won't do it for 5 years, but Wii is not going to get knocked out of the race like Cube and N64 did.

 

[sc0la]

(thanks bildi for hosting)

Did the Wii actually beat the 360 to 10 million if you plot all the data versus time?

 

[reilo]

Did the Wii actually beat the 360 to 10 million if you plot all the data versus time?

All numbers indicate so!

A bit sad considering Microsoft announced 10mil shipped last holiday and made a huge fuss about it.

What a world.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

You know what this thread needs? jimbo!

Spoiler

and a retitle

 

[TheGreatDave]

All numbers indicate so!

A bit sad considering Microsoft announced 10mil shipped last holiday and made a huge fuss about it.

What a world.

That's absolutely incredible. Seriously. I'm like...blown away. Microsoft really haven't got to 10 million yet?

 

[reilo]

That's absolutely incredible. Seriously. I'm like...blown away. Microsoft really haven't got to 10 million yet?

No, the numbers indicate that Microsoft has reached 10mil, too. But the Wii did it first :lol.

 

[laserbeam]

That's absolutely incredible. Seriously. I'm like...blown away. Microsoft really haven't got to 10 million yet?

Based on Schuelma's numbers

Wii- 10.255M
360- 10.045M

as of July NPD.

Wii is outselling on a weekly average by a considerable amount so the Wii would have done it a week or 2 sooner. basically neck and neck as they reached the 10 million line. Wii just did it in 8 months while it took 20 for 360

 

[AniHawk]

How much is Nintendo producing a month now. Was it 1.2m or 1.5m?

 

[laserbeam]

How much is Nintendo producing a month now. Was it 1.2m or 1.5m?

They Sold roughly 1.2 million for july based on figured we have. so if I had to guess I would say they are producing 1.5 million and holiday hording

 

[Pachael]

I think Microsoft did hit 10M first... but it's the rate of console growth that Moore (whoops) and MS should be more worried about - the Wii's done it too, but in 8 months compared to MS's 18-20 months (give or take). It's a one waggle future!

 

[schuelma]

How much is Nintendo producing a month now. Was it 1.2m or 1.5m?

I don't know if we ever got a firm number. July numbers definitely seem increased- About 1.2M shipped/sold. I wouldn't be surprised if they're now making 1.5M and holding some back for the holiday's.

 

[Culex]

We need an updated graph, stat doctor!

 

[TheGreatDave]

No, the numbers indicate that Microsoft has reached 10mil, too. But the Wii did it first :lol.

I'm literally blown away. The N64 fan inside me is busy doing cartwheels.

 

[titiklabingapat]

every 30 days it has to be asked...can the Wii do this for 5 years...will the games hold up

They have done it so far, making the Wii the fastest selling console in history yet on the back of their first party IPs. There is no reason to think they can't carry them over in the next four. Of course, that's the worst case scenario and third parties will hopefully follow.

 

[AniHawk]

They Sold roughly 1.2 million for july based on figured we have. so if I had to guess I would say they are producing 1.5 million and holiday hording

I wonder what they'd be increasing their production to. 1.8m? 2m?

 

[laserbeam]

I wonder what they'd be increasing their production to. 1.8m? 2m?

I want to say 2 million but I think Nintendo is still playing it safe and not wanting to invest too heavily in factories and suddenly see demand start to decline and be forced to cut brand new factories.

We know overall they increased their estimated sales for FY 2007 but several million units so there has to be a significant increase in production to match that

 

[titiklabingapat]

I wonder what they'd be increasing their production to. 1.8m? 2m?

1.8M in October and then to 2M in January. Probably.

Watch them increase thier LTD shipment forecast to 24.5M in October and 27M in January by the end of the fiscal year :lol

 

[felipeko]

Did they rise DS shipments on the second forecast revision last year?

We can expect that for Wii?
Would they revise it up to 18 millions?
Will they revise it again and try a shot at 20 millions this fiscal year?

 

[The Faceless Master]

thread title should be "Wii takin ovaa ... one market at a time!"

WOW!

in July!

most projections were saying August... the Wii is a beast!

I'm waiting 'till december (smash) to get one of my own...

 

[titiklabingapat]

thread title should be "Wii takin ovaa ... one market at a time!"

WOW!

in July!

most projections were saying August... the Wii is a beast!

I'm waiting 'till december (smash) to get one of my own...

We're including August figures for Japan and some estimations for Europe based on new numbers that came out a few days ago. If you include the lowest NPD monthly for the Wii, which is 250K, the Wii is indeed the market leader now but we won't be adding those figures until at least next month.

 

[koam]

Wii have NOT taken over.

I just updated the numbers and no cigar, it's really really close and both 360 and Wii have passed 10 million but X360 is SLIGHTLY in the lead.

 

[TheGreatDave]

Wii have NOT taken over.

I just updated the numbers and no cigar, it's really really close and both 360 and Wii have passed 10 million but X360 is SLIGHTLY in the lead.

WHAT

 

[schuelma]

Wii have NOT taken over.

I just updated the numbers and no cigar, it's really really close and both 360 and Wii have passed 10 million but X360 is SLIGHTLY in the lead.

I think you're Wii Europe numbers are low, but its all elementary at this point..in a week when you estimate August Europe numbers Wii will take over.

EDIT- Wait are you saying Wii is only at 2.6M for Europe including August? I am pretty sure that's low.

 

[schuelma]

WHAT

It all depends on how you estimate Europe numbers. I have a slightly higher Europe Wii estimate than whatever numbers koam is using. It's really just quibbling at this point.

 

[RiskyChris]

Wii have NOT taken over.

I just updated the numbers and no cigar, it's really really close and both 360 and Wii have passed 10 million but X360 is SLIGHTLY in the lead.

Statistical noise.

There's no significance to trying to put a day and date on the takeover -- it's happening right now.

 

[koam]

Using the thread ziran posted about Wii sales (in case that's which thread you meant), I'd say that European Wii sales were at ~2.6 million through August 4 (end of July by NPD). 360 should be 3.2-3.3 million through August 4 for Europe. Also, David Reeves (SCEE president) announced that the PS3 was at 1.3 million "in Europe" at the G|C.

I'm still hoping for an actual press release when Wii passes 1 million in the U.K. that states the European and/or PAL total sales, though. Microsoft may not want to share their PAL sales, but maybe Nintendo will put out a press release when they pass them there (as early as October).

These are the numbers I used for Europe, they do seem low but does anyone have anything more accurate?

 

[schuelma]

Statistical noise.

There's no significance to trying to put a day and date on the takeover -- it's happening right now.

Exactly, its a virtual certainty that right now the Wii has taken the lead. It just depends on when you cut off sales.

 

[schuelma]

These are the numbers I used for Europe, they do seem low but does anyone have anything more accurate?

Just stick with those- donny puts more thought into his estimates than I do. I think they're a bit low, especially with the news that the Wii is doing 90K a week in Europe, but its all good. I would correct the OP to make it clear that the 2.6M is only through the beginning of August and not the end.

EDIT- I do kind of doubt there is that big of a gap when today Nintendo apparently said its overtaken the 360 in Spain, France, and Germany.

 

[koam]

Just stick with those- donny puts more thought into his estimates than I do. I think they're a bit low, especially with the news that the Wii is doing 90K a week in Europe, but its all good. I would correct the OP to make it clear that the 2.6M is only through the beginning of August and not the end.

EDIT- I do kind of doubt there is that big of a gap when today Nintendo apparently said its overtaken the 360 in Spain, France, and Germany.

Wait, begining of august? I'll add 90,000 * 3 then (it's actually 4 but i'll give it the benefit of the doubt).

 

[schuelma]

Wait, begining of august? I'll add 90,000 * 3 then (it's actually 4 but i'll give it the benefit of the doubt).

Well, the post you cite says 2.6M for Wii as of August 4th. I think if you extrapolate to today Wii might have officially overtaken it.

 

[koam]

Wii have taken over!

All hail our new Nintendo overlords.

 

[reilo]

Wii have taken over!

All hail our new Nintendo overlords.

 

[schuelma]

Wii have taken over!

All hail our new Nintendo overlords.

Looks about right. Just FYI- donny and I seem to generally agree that Wii is probably doing about 350K a month in Europe, 360 about 100K.

 

[Zeed]

 

[titiklabingapat]

Create a new topic or change title or both, please.

I think a new topic is good so it's more visible and more people can come in and dispuite the numbers. i'll leave the honor to Koam if he decides to create one.

And we all know how sporsk hates mega threads

 

[Odysseus]

Wii have taken over!

All hail our new Nintendo overlords.

how can it be official when you rely on complete guestimates for europe?

meh.

it's bound to happen, yes, but what's with the rush to call it? have we learned nothing from bush/gore? dimpled chads, man!

 

[schuelma]

Create a new topic or change title or both, please.

I think a new topic so it's more visible and more people can come in and dispuite the numbers. i'll leave the honor to Koam

I think we should hold off on the new topic until donny gives his approval to the numbers. I defer to him.

 

[koam]

Done. Yeah I agree on a topic change though but please keep "Takeover Watch" in there.

 

[donny2112]

Just FYI- donny and I seem to generally agree that Wii is probably doing about 350K a month in Europe, 360 about 100K.

Pretty much.

Thanks for doing this thread, koam!

 

[titiklabingapat]

how can it be official when you rely on complete guestimates for europe?

meh.

it's bound to happen, yes, but what's with the rush to call it? have we learned nothing from bush/gore? dimpled chads, man!

 

[donny2112]

I think we should hold off on the new topic until donny gives his approval to the numbers. I defer to him.

:lol Thanks.

If we're trying to get up to this week's figures, I think the Wii would definitely be ahead, and those numbers look reasonable to me. You may want to guess U.S. sales through this week, too, though, to keep the dates consistent, but you don't have to.

I agree that it'd be nice to have better Europe figures for the 360, but what can we do except wait on another press release?

 

[schuelma]

:lol Thanks.

If we're trying to get up to this week's figures, I think the Wii would definitely be ahead. I agree that it'd be nice to have better Europe figures for the 360, but what can we do except wait on another press release?

Yeah..of course I can see why Microsoft might be hesitant to release those numbers. :lol :lol


Re: guessing NPD weekly..then we veer off into the banned sites methods. With Europe we have no choice but to estimate- with NPD IMO its cleaner just to wait for the new month.

 

[koam]

how can it be official when you rely on complete guestimates for europe?

meh.

it's bound to happen, yes, but what's with the rush to call it? have we learned nothing from bush/gore? dimpled chads, man!

Because..

1) Our guestimates for the Wii are FAR lower than what we are reporting.
2) Regardless of Europe, the 20 or so days of August in USA + Canada put the Wii ahead
3) 360s Europe numbers are probably higher than are reported.

I'd be really surprised if right now, the Wii doesn't have close to a 1 million lead.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Irregardless... ugh...

 

[apujanata]

I can't believe it took Nintendo only 8 months to do what Microsoft did in 20.

Yeah. It is like a nightmare (at least from Sony & Microsoft POV).

I sometimes think that we are all trapped in Matrix like environment, and this is all just a dream (by our robotic lord).

 

[Earthstrike]

This thread should now be the Wii takeover watch 2, where we see how long it will take for the Wii to overtake the worldwide sum of the PS3 and 360 sales.