Bulla564 said:
Late 2009 with the next Halo? you are proving my point.
No. Your point was that the 360 has passed its peak and is slowing down. My point is that ALL SYSTEMS peak around years 3-4.
For those PS2 gamers that don't even own an HDTV yet (I believe there are quite a few) do you think they will get a stand-alone, when they can pay $50-$100 more for one of the best players out there? This will remain true for 2008 and 2009.
Yeah, I'd agree with those dates. I just don't think that's a whole lot of leverage and past that point it'll be none at all. I also think it's incredibly wrong to assume a) that PS2 owners will get HDTVs during this period or b) that people buying HDTVs will necessarily jump in on Blu-Ray immediately.
God of War, GT5, Team ICO for the hardcore, etc etc are still left. You can't say the same for MS, and they don't even seem to be trying much in terms of new franchises.
It's true that MSFT pales in terms of dev manpower versus Sony or Nintendo, but relative to their overall smaller size, they've launched a healthy mix of new franchises just like Sony has. Sony has Resistance and Uncharted as their two standout new franchises this gen; MSFT has Gears, Mass Effect (notwithstanding EA acquisition issues), Viva Pinata. I'm not trying to minimize Sony here, I'm saying you're trying to minimize MSFT.
On an ongoing basis, who knows what'll come out next year. Alan Wake is an example of an MSFT new franchise that we know about, but for the most part MS has nothing announced past 2H2008 and Sony nothing past 1H2009.
Remember when around March people were saying "What does MS have for the back half of this year? Nothing! They're closing up shop!" and now suddenly the 360 has a flood of 1st party or exclusive 3rd party RPGs (all mid-tier in terms of sales, obviously), Gears 2, a two-pack of 39.99 priced titles from Rare, etc. I don't think saying "a company has nothing scheduled in the distant future" is the same as saying "a company has nothing in development for the future".
And Team ICO? Shadow of the Colossus is at around 750k in the US, Ico is <200k. Great, outstanding games, but not anything even relevant in terms of an outlook kind of thing. Lost Odyssey outsold ICO. Is MSFT supposed to be in a good position because they've still got Cry On to rock the world with?
I'm not equating the X360 with the PS2, and you shouldn't either. At least for me, the Xbox was a bit irrelevant thanks to the PC. I already own a 360, but it is looking eerily similar to the Xbox1.
Well I can see how an individual person might feel like that, but in terms of looking at it from a market perspective which this article pretends to do, the PC is a non-issue. If anything, the similarities in software and approach between PC/XBX and PC/X360 have spurred a shift of PC-centric gamers and game genres to the console world, rather than a lessened momentum by the Xbox.
Like I said, I'm not minimizing or arguing against Sony here, but the article basically turns a blind eye to all roadblocks in Sony's path, and then claims the absolute worst case scenario for all roadblocks in Microsoft's path, and that's what you're doing here as well in terms of your outlook on Sony and MSFT's software future and hardware lifespans.