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[jvm]

The stuff I submitted to Next-Gen.biz this month regarding the sales figures announced last week was split into two articles: hardware and software. Generally speaking, this is console-only, and I'm hoping I'll have time for a handheld-specific post next week.

Here are the pieces:

1. Hardware
2. Software

There is a lot to cover about a year in sales, and I know I didn't hit everything. I did try to pick out some interesting pieces. I liked this picture of console sales:

Think of Wii sales as the horizontal axis (y=0) and then showing where the other two consoles are relative to that point. Negative shows a console behind in LTD sales and positive shows a console ahead in LTD sales. The nice thing about this, in my opinion, is that the use of relative numbers removes the distorting sales spikes during the holidays that you would see using absolute sales figures.

Anyway, the trends are quite linear, and make for some amusing predictions about where things will stand next year. I tried to put enough caveats in there that people understand that was looks linear today may well be nonlinear tomorrow (i.e. things could change as soon as January sales are announced). If things do change, it will be very interesting to see which way each system breaks.

Readers last month tracked down an error in the data I received from NPD, and we fixed it promptly. I know there is one typo in the hardware article that I'm going to have fixed today. (You guys should spot it easily.) As always, let me know if you think something's wrong and I'll look into it and have it fixed if necessary. I'd rather be humbled and have fixed a mistake than let an error sit out there with my name on it.

For reference, here are the threads for November 2007 and October 2007.

 

[dr3upmushroom]

Wow, PS2 is still the home of Guitar Hero. And at the attach rate of SMG, I seriously don't know how anyone can own a Nintendo system and not have "The Mario game" for it.

 

[FIREBABY]

Thanks will read.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

I'm not sure why that relative to the Wii chart is particulary interesting?

It shows the 360 has slowed the decline against the Wii but that is only due to Wii shortages, it does however so a sharp nose dive in relation to the PS3 but I wouldn't really compare the PS3 to the Wii anyway.

The PS3 is an expensive enterainment device including the latest in HD media playing tech while the Wii is cheap and doesn't even include a DVD drive, why does it matter how they are doing in relation to each other?

 

[szaromir]

but I wouldn't really compare the PS3 to the Wii anyway.

The PS3 is an expensive enterainment device including the latest in HD media playing tech while the Wii is cheap and doesn't even include a DVD drive, why does it matter how they are doing in relation to each other?

They are both meant to play games as their primary function? Not sure if your post is serious, though...

The article about software is much more interesting though. Some interesting charts. Guitar Hero is huge. It seems that exclusive ads for Assassin's Creed did help to build a higher attachment ratio on PS3.

 

[RJT]

I'm not sure why that relative to the Wii chart is particulary interesting?

It shows the 360 has slowed the decline against the Wii but that is only due to Wii shortages, it does however so a sharp nose dive in relation to the PS3 but I wouldn't really compare the PS3 to the Wii anyway.

The PS3 is an expensive enterainment device including the latest in HD media playing tech while the Wii is cheap and doesn't even include a DVD drive, why does it matter how they are doing in relation to each other?

There is a reason NPD tracks their sales in the same group...

 

[Hyllian]

.

We would like to thank the NPD Group for its gracious distribution of the sales data each month. Without their cooperation, work like this would be impossible. Also, thanks to NeoGAF and its contributors who helped sift through the many sources of sales numbers for December 2007.

 

[Spider_Jerusalem]

The PS3 is an expensive enterainment device including the latest in HD media playing tech while the Wii is cheap and doesn't even include a DVD drive, why does it matter how they are doing in relation to each other?

It means that PS3 is widening the gap with the market leader, while 360 is somewhat resisting.

Edit- this is interesting too:

I knew that multiplatform games were doing better on 360, but didn't realize that they sold 2x or 3x more than on PS3.

 

[FIREBABY]

It means that PS3 is widening the gap with the market leader, while 360 is somewhat resisting.

Edit- this is interesting too:

I knew that multiplatform games were doing better on 360, but didn't realize that they sold 2x or 3x more than on PS3.

Larger install base.

 

[PROOP]

.

We would like to thank the NPD Group for its gracious distribution of the sales data each month. Without their cooperation, work like this would be impossible. Also, thanks to NeoGAF and its contributors who helped sift through the many sources of sales numbers for December 2007.

more like

Also, thanks to NeoGAF and its contributor, Cheesemeister, for the helpful compilation of weekly Media Create data.

You are teh master of teh internets Cheesiemeister.


ps. I would also like to thank you for kick ass MC threads.

 

[cedric69]

And at the attach rate of SMG, I seriously don't know how anyone can own a Nintendo system and not have "The Mario game" for it.

I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I keep on being surprised by people's reaction to what is clearly the result of the whole Wii operation. Nintendo was not targeting us. Simple.

They were adamant about this, since the very first presentation conference at E3. Where's the surprise in results that simply reflect their positioning of the (incredibly successful) machine?

 

[cedric69]

Larger install base.

Is that proportional? I mean, are 360 third-party titles overperforming on a proportional ratio compared to PS3, taking into account each system's installed base?

 

[bluheim]

I knew that multiplatform games were doing better on 360, but didn't realize that they sold 2x or 3x more than on PS3.

Considering there are 3 times more 360 than PS3 in the US, color me SURPRISED !!!

 

[szaromir]

Is that proportional? I mean, are 360 third-party titles overperforming on a proportional ratio compared to PS3, taking into account each system's installed base?

Just read the article. The proportional sales to the userbases would be at 2.8:1 ratio.

 

[RJT]

I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I keep on being surprised by people's reaction to what is clearly the result of the whole Wii operation. Nintendo was not targeting us. Simple.

They were adamant about this, since the very first presentation conference at E3. Where's the surprise in results that simply reflect their positioning of the (incredibly successful) machine?

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. Do you think Nintendo formed a 100 man team to work on Smash for the "casuals"?

The attached rate of SMG is good. It's Halo's attached rate that is abnormal, probably unprecedented.

Besides, SMG is showing amazing legs, so it will probably grow (or maintain) its attached rate, while Halo 3 was already replaced by Call of Duty and will not have a 50% attached rate at the end of the year.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The PS3 is an expensive enterainment device including the latest in HD media playing tech while the Wii is cheap and doesn't even include a DVD drive, why does it matter how they are doing in relation to each other?

The PS3 is the only console with a blu-ray drive so we shouldn't count the 360 as competition either. The PS3 is in the first place!

 

[cedric69]

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. Do you think Nintendo formed a 100 man team to work on Smash for the "casuals"?

Not at all. Nintendo is, by far, the last company to turn down money to be easily made.

All I'm saying is that is kind of naive being surprised by non-casual games performance on Wii, if the reasoning stems from just its installed base.

While I haven't played SMG yet, enough of my trusted friends have played it to *know* it's awesome. Please, don't take my point as Mario bashing because it totally is not.

 

[szaromir]

i don't really understand the discussion. SMG's attachment ration is amazing, selling to 30% of Wii owners is really, really good.

Besides, SMG is showing amazing legs, so it will probably grow (or maintain) its attached rate, while Halo 3 was already replaced by Call of Duty and will not have a 50% attached rate at the end of the year.

Halo 3 replaced by COD4? Yeah, the Xbox Live takeover is spectacular (though perhaps temporary), but Halo 3 sold almost 800k in its 4th month. That's huge.

 

[nli10]

Read the article on NG.biz yesterday & loved the graph from the first post

As an Professional Analyst myself (clinical data not sales) it's nice to see unbiased articles in the mainstream press that don't try to fit the data to the story and just show what happened.

 

[markom58]

That is the most interesting and telling stat for the US videogame industry. What an incredible growth for 2007.

 

[Vagabundo]

The stuff ...{snip}

We have the same last name:

"We Could be BRUTHERS"...

Nice article.

 

[RJT]

All I'm saying is that is kind of naive being surprised by non-casual games performance on Wii, if the reasoning stems from just its installed base.

That's the problem. SMG's performance was great. People are just expecting too much!

i don't really understand the discussion. SMG's attachment ration is amazing, selling to 30% of Wii owners is really, really good.

Exactly

Halo 3 replaced by COD4? Yeah, the Xbox Live takeover is spectacular (though perhaps temporary), but Halo 3 sold almost 800k in its 4th month. That's huge.

Well, I was exaggerating a little bit. Even though Halo is such a huge beast in the US, I'm almost sure SMG will show up in the Top 10 for many months to come (not unlike some of the DS successes like NSMB and MK).

 

[scitek]

WOW. How did movies do in sales last year? I'm guessing video games is getting closer to them in market size. I doubt it if you add DVD sales.

 

[FIREBABY]

That is the most interesting and telling stat for the US videogame industry. What an incredible growth for 2007.

Wow. See guys competition is good for the industry.

 

[cedric69]

One thing: you lump Little Big Planet with MGS4 and Gran Turismo, as a system seller.

I keep on being surprised by this. I think LBP could do wonders on the Wii but on a machine like PS3? I wouldn't be so sure. I would bet against it becoming a million seller, for instance. Quality of the game notwithstanding.

 

[legend166]

That is the most interesting and telling stat for the US videogame industry. What an incredible growth for 2007.

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out for the rest of the generation. Looking at that graph, the industry was basically stagnant whilst the PS2 was in the lead. Now Nintendo comes back and expands it's massively.

 

[sleeping_dragon]

The stuff I submitted to Next-Gen.biz this month regarding the sales figures announced last week was split into two articles: hardware and software. Generally speaking, this is console-only, and I'm hoping I'll have time for a handheld-specific post next week.

Here are the pieces:

1. Hardware
2. Software

There is a lot to cover about a year in sales, and I know I didn't hit everything. I did try to pick out some interesting pieces. I liked this picture of console sales:

Think of Wii sales as the horizontal axis (y=0) and then showing where the other two consoles are relative to that point. Negative shows a console behind in LTD sales and positive shows a console ahead in LTD sales. The nice thing about this, in my opinion, is that the use of relative numbers removes the distorting sales spikes during the holidays that you would see using absolute sales figures.

Anyway, the trends are quite linear, and make for some amusing predictions about where things will stand next year. I tried to put enough caveats in there that people understand that was looks linear today may well be nonlinear tomorrow (i.e. things could change as soon as January sales are announced). If things do change, it will be very interesting to see which way each system breaks.

Readers last month tracked down an error in the data I received from NPD, and we fixed it promptly. I know there is one typo in the hardware article that I'm going to have fixed today. (You guys should spot it easily.) As always, let me know if you think something's wrong and I'll look into it and have it fixed if necessary. I'd rather be humbled and have fixed a mistake than let an error sit out there with my name on it.

For reference, here are the threads for November 2007 and October 2007.

with all due respect dont you think the graph is a bit unfair to the PS3 because the reason the Xbox360 doesnt look it was nose diving like the PS3 was because it has a a year head start on the Wii and the PS3 and remember that the PS3 was last the console out of the gate, therefore the graph look a bit bias i might add.

 

[szaromir]

Well, I was exaggerating a little bit. Even though Halo is such a huge beast in the US, I'm almost sure SMG will show up in the Top 10 for many months to come (not unlike some of the DS successes like NSMB and MK).

Halo 3 might have a long tail, too, as some percentage of new Xbox 360 owners will probably want this game, too. In general, I am looking forward to seeing how well 07Q4 games will sell in 08, especially in the first 3 months when there aren't many new releases.

Wow. See guys competition is good for the industry.

Does anyone have totall revenues numbers for each platform? 360 is $4.8B, Wii $3.5B and PS3 is $2.2B, but what about PS2 and handhelds?

 

[PROOP]

with all due respect dont you think the graph is a bit unfair to the PS3 because the reason the Xbox360 doesnt look it was nose diving like the PS3 was because it has a a year head start on the Wii and the PS3 and remember that the PS3 was last the console out of the gate, therefore the graph look a bit bias i might add.

If I'm not mistaken, PS3 was released 2 days before the Wii, and a one week difference wouldn't matter that much anyway, especially considering 4 million a deficit. The slope of the curves really tell the story. No bias here, only bitter, bitter tears.

fyi I own all three, albeit the JP specs.

 

[Nocebo]

with all due respect dont you think the graph is a bit unfair to the PS3 because the reason the Xbox360 doesnt look it was nose diving like the PS3 was because it has a a year head start on the Wii and the PS3 and remember that the PS3 was last the console out of the gate, therefore the graph look a bit bias i might add.

No, if the xbox360 sales were as poor as the PS3's it would plummet into the ground as well, as the numbers are relative and for 2007. It doesn't matter what the install base was in 2006 to see a downward trend right?

 

[Tyrannical]

No one ever seems to provide demographic information on HW/SW sales. You can infer some things based on software sales, but the real stuff must be reserved for paying customers only.

Everything else in sales/advertising is about winning your target demographic. Companies aim different games such as "high school musical" (tweens) or CoD4 (males 18-35?) at different demographics. A console winning it's demographic ensures it gets the games the owners probably wants.

Some consoles like the PS2 had it easy as it dominated pretty much every where. Other consoles are stronger or weaker in some areas. It's a self feeding cycle that consoles tend to get more and better games aimed at the demographic they are stronger at, and the converse is also true.

I think the PS3 and the 360 share similar key demographics. They advertise to and make games aimed at young males 18-35. CoD4, Assasin's Creed sell well, R&C and pintas not so well.

The Wii probably has a broader demographic. Someone is buying highschool musical and carnival games. So even if the Wii is ahead overall in current sales, if it is not winning your demographic, it'll play second fiddle in getting games aimed at you. And yes, Mario Galaxy appeals to everyone.

 

[Dragon]

No, if the xbox360 sales were as poor as the PS3's it would plummet into the ground as well, as the numbers are relative and for 2007. It doesn't matter what the install base was in 2006 to see a downward trend right?

The 360 demolishes the PS3 in the United States. I don't see what's so interesting about the graph either, it's just pointing out something everyone already knows.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

with all due respect dont you think the graph is a bit unfair to the PS3 because the reason the Xbox360 doesnt look it was nose diving like the PS3 was because it has a a year head start on the Wii and the PS3 and remember that the PS3 was last the console out of the gate, therefore the graph look a bit bias i might add.

The curve of the graphs would remain the same though regardless of its starting point.

 

[Psychotext]

I don't see what's so interesting about the graph either, it's just pointing out something everyone already knows.

Everyone?

Anyway... I found it useful to have an easy to understand graphical comparison of the platforms.

 

[RJT]

with all due respect dont you think the graph is a bit unfair to the PS3 because the reason the Xbox360 doesnt look it was nose diving like the PS3 was because it has a a year head start on the Wii and the PS3 and remember that the PS3 was last the console out of the gate, therefore the graph look a bit bias i might add.

No. Xbox starts higher than Ps3 because of that. Nose diving has nothing to do with being late.

 

[FieryBalrog]

with all due respect dont you think the graph is a bit unfair to the PS3 because the reason the Xbox360 doesnt look it was nose diving like the PS3 was because it has a a year head start on the Wii and the PS3 and remember that the PS3 was last the console out of the gate, therefore the graph look a bit bias i might add.

Do you have any idea how this graph works? :lol

 

[Dragon]

Everyone?

Anyway... I found it useful to have an easy to understand graphical comparison of the platforms.

Graphs are nice. For people who aren't detail oriented

 

[Nocebo]

The 360 demolishes the PS3 in the United States. I don't see what's so interesting about the graph either, it's just pointing out something everyone already knows.

If you don't see what's interesting about this graph then you should probably stay away from sales analysis threads?

 

[jvm]

with all due respect dont you think the graph is a bit unfair to the PS3 because the reason the Xbox360 doesnt look it was nose diving like the PS3 was because it has a a year head start on the Wii and the PS3 and remember that the PS3 was last the console out of the gate, therefore the graph look a bit bias i might add.

Those are numbers and they show a trend in the numbers. In that respect, there is no unfairness, from my perspective. I wanted a graph that achieved a specific effect -- namely showing how the three consoles were doing without the distorting effect of Nov-Dec sales spikes -- and this does it. It just happens to show that the PS3 is losing ground to the Wii faster than the Xbox 360 is, a fact which becomes crystal clear when viewed this way. That happens when you draw pictures of data sometimes: you gain insight into what's happening. It doesn't mean there is an agenda.

Finally, I'm not really sure how we say what first vs. second year growth should look like in consoles. And if there is a general rule, then wouldn't this graph potentially show that one console or another was breaking that general rule?

Not trying to flame, but I don't see myself being unfair for showing the data this way.

 

[Kestastrophe]

"Impressive.......most impressive."

 

[Psychotext]

One stat I'd like to see is total game sales (revenue or units, revenue probably best) for each of the big three in 2007. Would be nice to get an idea of how well they were performing compared to their installed numbers.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

That is the most interesting and telling stat for the US videogame industry. What an incredible growth for 2007.

This graph is more intersting! Best year end for gaming (industry) confirmed.

I expect a fall though as the consoles get cheaper and the world economy looks a bit shakey..

 

[electricpirate]

One qualm with the article, you mention that Wii play could be more profitable than Halo 3, does that factor in the profit per item sold? Wii play sells with a remote, which cuts profit from it's $50 dollar price tag. Halo 3 on the other hand sold in expensive collectors editions, and at a base higher price point.

It's hard to know either way without knowing how much a wii mote costs to make.

 

[Gattsu25]

This graph is more intersting! Best year end for gaming (industry) confirmed.

I expect a fall though as the consoles get cheaper and the world economy looks a bit shakey..

What would that graph look like if the value of the dollar, by the end of 2007, was adjusted to be worth the same as the value of the dollar by the end of 1997?

 

[Stop It]

This graph is more intersting! Best year end for gaming (industry) confirmed.

I expect a fall though as the consoles get cheaper and the world economy looks a bit shakey..

It should go higher if anything, 4 active consoles (PS2, PS3, Wii, 360) with increasing userbases and more software this year, + DS & PSP selling well, means that 2008 will probably beat 2007 turnover wise, regardless of the current situation in the stock markets.

 

[jarrod]

One thing: you lump Little Big Planet with MGS4 and Gran Turismo, as a system seller.

I keep on being surprised by this. I think LBP could do wonders on the Wii but on a machine like PS3? I wouldn't be so sure. I would bet against it becoming a million seller, for instance. Quality of the game notwithstanding.

LBP will do well, but it's going to have a massive campaign behind it. It'll be like Jak & Daxter I think, Sony literally won't let it fall by the wayside... but it's not a system seller really.

 

[Kestastrophe]

What would that graph look like if the value of the dollar, by the end of 2007, was adjusted to be worth the same as the value of the dollar by the end of 1997?

Using this: http://www.shadowstats.com/inflation_calculator?amount1=17.9&y1=2007&m1=12&y2=1997&m2=12&calc=Find+Out

I came up with $13.75 billion

 

[Haunted]

Good write-up, as always. Couldn't follow the NPD thread this time arund, so this is a great summary of the most important points and trends.

The industry is thriving and expanding rapidly - thanks, Nintendo! :bow :bow Iwata

 

[RubberJohnny]

Very good analysis, and some very clever graphs. Thankyou.

 

[Gattsu25]

Using this: http://www.shadowstats.com/inflation_calculator?amount1=17.9&y1=2007&m1=12&y2=1997&m2=12&calc=Find+Out

I came up with $13.75 billion

Thank you, and by the way, that website is very handy. New bookmark