Barnaby Jones
Banned
Red Scarlet said:
So google is running your servers? Interesting.....
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Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Analyst: "10-12 mln '360s by Year-End"
- Thread starter DarkMage619
- Start date
So google is running your servers? Interesting.....
Red Scarlet
Member
I don't have a server.
I searched and linked the pictures. That's why they're there, for people to see.
Better start complaining to every person on the internet that links pictures not on their personal web pages. Get going.
I searched and linked the pictures. That's why they're there, for people to see.
Better start complaining to every person on the internet that links pictures not on their personal web pages. Get going.
Systems_id
Banned
My point is that most of Capcom's efforts will more than likely go to the PS3. Capcom arguably provided the best Xbox support and that didn't really help too much. Sorry I wasn't clear about it.bry-bry said:
Wulfer
Member
Soundwave, Xbox 360 gets the full year and more just like others have said already Sony will hit a wall with how many systems they can make and sale (After that Microsoft has free reign on how many it can manage to sell). There won't be a magical 8 million systems waiting on customers or Sony would already have them on store shelves!
sonycowboy
Member
jedimike said:
But, here's the thing. Both systems seem to still have essentially the same libraries. The Japanese support for the 360 is still mostly skin deep at this point. The big sellers (or presumed big sellers) are heavily PC / shooter oriented (PDZ, COD2, Gears of War, Oblivion, GRAW). I honestly, don't see a significant shift for Microsoft's library, and that could be a problem.
Plus, Sony is likely to have the power advantage as well as a decent online service to boot, which were Microsoft's two biggest advantages this gen.
I agree that new franchises can cause a shift, which could be in the 360's favor, and that we still don't know where GTA will land. But outside of those factors, I don't see that enough has changed and I also don't believe that many folks at all believe Microsoft will win this generation. They will certainly do better because of the 2 year differential (1 year before Sony vs 1 year after), but it's still far too early to give them too much credit.
They've managed to muck up their launch (4 months later and < 1M units in the US), PDZ & Kameo weren't as big as hoped, the late dev kits, and were unable to steal away the key franchises (at least so far), so I think the jury is still out.
They could do much better, about the same, or (extremely unlikely) be buried by the PS3 in 2007.
sonycowboy said:
Yep, I could see it playing out like that as well. That's why I think it is ridiculous for all this spin and speculation so early. Looking at the "history" of video games is also kind of silly because you're not going to find enough history or any scenario similar to what we have now. I would say the upper threshold of 360 sales could be as high as 12M and the lower threshold could be as low as 5M. The why of it all is going to be very interesting.
Count Chocula
Banned
People keep saying the MS has a year headstart but
I expect to see the shift in momentum starting around E3 time when the PS3 hype train takes off.
I expect to see the shift in momentum starting around E3 time when the PS3 hype train takes off.
soundwave05
Member
rastex said:
The 360 really isn't going to have that big of a headstart IMO.
It's not like PS3 is coming out 14 months from now and MS is going to have this huge window to themselves.
We're already into March 2006 basically. The PS3 could be on storeshelves here in 7-8 months time. Time is running out for MS ... this window really is closing a lot faster because of their supply issues.
Because MS basically blew their launch by having such a limited supply, that window is hardly a life time.
I don't believe the HD-DVD add-on will be successful at all for MS either.
Beer Monkey
Member
If Sony can price PS3 at $299 and manufacture 8 million of them this year, MS is screwed to death.
If Sony prices it at $499 and can only manufacture 2 million this year, MS will definitely beat the 8 million that they sold during the first 14 months of Xbox 1, and the 10-12 million number is not out of the question. Also, they will likely gain meaningful marketshare over the last generation.
What will really happen, we do not yet know. But one thing is for sure. Fanbots will be screaming predictions all year long.
If Sony prices it at $499 and can only manufacture 2 million this year, MS will definitely beat the 8 million that they sold during the first 14 months of Xbox 1, and the 10-12 million number is not out of the question. Also, they will likely gain meaningful marketshare over the last generation.
What will really happen, we do not yet know. But one thing is for sure. Fanbots will be screaming predictions all year long.
MS also has to worry about the PSP as well. Yeah it isnt selling as fast as the DS but it is doing extremely well. PSP, alongside PS2 and PS1, is helping to strengthen the Playstation brand. We all joked about Nintendo and connectivity, but the rumors of the PSP interfacing with the PS3 is going to a much bigger degree than Nintendo dreamed of. Why would someone with a PSP own a x360 instead of a PS3? There are over 10 million PSP owners already.
Of course I've always been a firm believer PS3 is going to give X360 a big smackdown when it comes to hardware sales. Doesn't mean X360 can't do better than Xbox and give me the games I want, but I still believe Sony is going to be dominating again by a big margin unless some huge clusterfuck occurs this year.
Of course I've always been a firm believer PS3 is going to give X360 a big smackdown when it comes to hardware sales. Doesn't mean X360 can't do better than Xbox and give me the games I want, but I still believe Sony is going to be dominating again by a big margin unless some huge clusterfuck occurs this year.
soundwave05
Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
How about right in between ... 4 million PS3s in 2006. 2 mill for North America, 1 mill for Japan, 1 mill for Europe.
$399.99 in North America, possibly more like $450 US (equivalent) in Japan and Europe.
I think that's doable. Again I'm thinking Sony may opt to launch first in North America (September-ish) and then hold off Europe/Japan until later on in the fall.
Mrbob said:
Crackdown has lots of potential because the games creator has a great trackrecord for being involved huge hits like Lemmings and Grand Theft Auto. Dave Jones has a knack for smash hits and Real Time Worlds is a large developer with a staff of over 100 people. The other title they are working on is also coming out for the 360, A.P.B. sometime in 2007.
Microsoft can lower the price of the 360 by $50 for the holiday season. It would make a lot of sense to do this, so that for 2007 holiday season they can cut the price again to get the system to $199 and have Halo 3.
boyshine
Member
What people seem to forget when predicting the end result for Xbox 360 compared to Xbox is that the reason behind a very significant percentage of Xbox sales was the modding possibility. At least in Europe it was. I wouldn't be surprised if it was as high as 25-30%. And those customers will not automatically come back to 360. Also, Xbox disappointed many of its buyers with its limited genre selection. I feel MS is digging itself into the most narrow niche of all 3 players this gen. By attracting only the male technology-focused consumer group they will not reach more gamers than they did last gen.
I don't know the exact lifetime number for PlayStation vs PS2, I just know they're both past the 100 million mark, but I'm guessing PS2 will surpass its predecessor in total sold consoles. And the reason behind that success is that PS2 managed to find even bigger groups of gamers.. I have no idea how many people bought a PS2 just for Singstar, but it's a lot. And also other games like EyeToy and Buzz helped get more people in. In addition to hugely successful franchises like Ratchet & Clank and Sly Cooper for the family. The key to success is in having something for everyone, and I just don't see that Microsoft has been able to change their focus in that regard from what it was last gen. Xbox 360 is still too much of a boys' toy to become a real competitor to PlayStation.
I don't know the exact lifetime number for PlayStation vs PS2, I just know they're both past the 100 million mark, but I'm guessing PS2 will surpass its predecessor in total sold consoles. And the reason behind that success is that PS2 managed to find even bigger groups of gamers.. I have no idea how many people bought a PS2 just for Singstar, but it's a lot. And also other games like EyeToy and Buzz helped get more people in. In addition to hugely successful franchises like Ratchet & Clank and Sly Cooper for the family. The key to success is in having something for everyone, and I just don't see that Microsoft has been able to change their focus in that regard from what it was last gen. Xbox 360 is still too much of a boys' toy to become a real competitor to PlayStation.
DarkMage619
$MSFT
sonycowboy said:
Well you can't blame M$ for sticking with the library from the region where they sold the most. Let's be honest here, there is NOTHING M$ can do to get any meaningful sales in Japan. It's not about the games, Japan is about the home team. M$ is NOT the home team so they won't get many sales there. The good thing is that as the 360 sells well in places outside of Japan, the developers there will not be able to ignore the system. Japan is the only reason why it is unlikely that M$ would be able to take the next-gen sales crown from SON¥.
The Dark One
sonycowboy
Member
DarkMage619 said:
The only reason?
Urrrrr.....
Microsoft has been outsold over 6-1 in Europe, and over 2-1 in the US, so I don't know if you can say the Xbox sold well in Europe (in fact, I'm sure you CAN'T say that). If you look at NPD and European sales numbers, they weren't because of Japanese developed SW sales.
There's no silver bullet for Sony's success. It's a combination of alot of things: good timing, execution, marketing,games, worldwide performance, and momentum.
DarkMage619
$MSFT
sonycowboy said:
Japan is the only country where it totally doesn't matter what happens, the 360 will NOT sell. That is not true of Europe. On top of that, it is a well documented fact that M$ severely overcharged for the XBOX in Europe initially and it was a mistake they never totally overcame. But still by the end of the generation XBOX left and overall positve impression there and that's why you see the 360 doing much better this time around. I stand by my comments about Japan being the sole reason for PS3 victory next-gen.
The Dark One
Kleegamefan
K. LEE GAIDEN
HA HA...in europe, they sold ~ 6M Xboxes......PS2s?? ~ 25M :lol
It is one thing to get people to buy X360s....it is quite another thing to get people to buy X360s and *NOT* buy PS3s...
PSOne and PS2 had tons of games in all genres (not just shooters and PC ports).....there is something for everybody on the PlayStation platform.....X360 is the new hawtness fo sho, but there are a SEA of consumers *worldwide* that will not so much as SMELL anything other than PlayStation.....Europe especially!!!!
It is one thing to get people to buy X360s....it is quite another thing to get people to buy X360s and *NOT* buy PS3s...
PSOne and PS2 had tons of games in all genres (not just shooters and PC ports).....there is something for everybody on the PlayStation platform.....X360 is the new hawtness fo sho, but there are a SEA of consumers *worldwide* that will not so much as SMELL anything other than PlayStation.....Europe especially!!!!
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
DarkMage619 said:
WTF
Frankfurter
Member
DarkMage619 said:
I don't think that you could at this point say that X360 is doing better than Xbox in Europe.
CountZeroInt
Banned
Just GRAW is going to revolutionize console multiplayer gaming, probably the best multiplayer experience on a console ever.
So yeah, I think GRAW and Oblivion will carry the console pretty well into summer, and sales should sky rocket when console availability goes up, but the broad picture of things up until the end of the year will only be seen after E3. I wouldn't assume that Microsoft have announced their full 2006 lineup yet.
So yeah, I think GRAW and Oblivion will carry the console pretty well into summer, and sales should sky rocket when console availability goes up, but the broad picture of things up until the end of the year will only be seen after E3. I wouldn't assume that Microsoft have announced their full 2006 lineup yet.
Frankfurter
Member
rastex said:
They launched with what? 300k units? Perhaps even less? Shipped another ... 200k till the end of the year? Come on, it's imho far too early to say wether or not X360 will be doing better than Xbox.
DarkMage619
$MSFT
Frankfurter said:
Why are so many people basing the entire future of a console based on initial available numbers? There is a bit more to the equation than launch shipping numbers that will determine success. I'd say that the 360 having great software sales and the fact that they were able to sell out the units they did ship shows that the 360 is already starting off much better than the original XBOX in Europe. The XBOX launch left a bad taste in Europeans mouths, but the 360 has pretty much turned that all around.
There is yet another factor that I have not seen mentioned here and that is the fact that there is no PS3 at this point. Everyone is quick to say how the 360 will be buried by everything that is PS3 but at this point it doesn't exist. If the delay rumors are true and the system is pushed back at what point do consumers stop waiting and take the 360 plunge? Will developers hold back projects and hope and pray that the PS3 will answer their prayers or will they go forward and release their projects on a platform that is already in the hands of consumers?
The Dark One
Walter Matthau
Member
ToxicAdam said:
Pretty much. Especially with the Revolution.
gamergirly
Member
Kleegamefan said:
Yeah that is true. Many 360 buyers are going to get a PS3 as well, but it doesnt work the other way around...........
open_mouth_
insert_foot_
First off, Sony did a nice job of implanting that "Spring '06" date for the PS3 launch. Every joe on the street seems to believe it, but once spring rolls around and Sony says "errr... maybe fall or winter '06" it won't seem that far off at that point and most of them will just sigh and wait another few months.
As for 360, the 2nd wave of titles are coming and there are a few potential big ones (GRAW, Oblivion, Fight Night, etc.). Then you've got the summer games and E3 which will have tons of playable holiday-targeted 360 releases, some of which should killer. The 360 will be a viable alternative to the PS3, especially with it's lineup and availability compared to the PS3 launch. Sony might catch up to 360 worldwide by the end of '08, imo, but not earlier.
As for 360, the 2nd wave of titles are coming and there are a few potential big ones (GRAW, Oblivion, Fight Night, etc.). Then you've got the summer games and E3 which will have tons of playable holiday-targeted 360 releases, some of which should killer. The 360 will be a viable alternative to the PS3, especially with it's lineup and availability compared to the PS3 launch. Sony might catch up to 360 worldwide by the end of '08, imo, but not earlier.
Are these games/franchises (fight night, oblivion, Ghost reckon) really that huge in sales? How much does an elder scroll or fight night game normally sell? Oblivion for example looks very nice for more hardcore western RPG fans, but is it a million seller? They got a good following, but they aren't the GTA's or Zelda's that can carry a few million sales and get the hardware out of the door imo.
I think about 8 - 9 million if they're lucky. The softwarelibrary and diversity just isn't there, and it has to compete with next-gen handheld devices with strong lineups on top of two new consoles that get released this year.
I think about 8 - 9 million if they're lucky. The softwarelibrary and diversity just isn't there, and it has to compete with next-gen handheld devices with strong lineups on top of two new consoles that get released this year.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
I dunno, every kiosk I pass playing FN3 is mobbed with slack-jawed enthusiasts. And this is only February 2006.
Frankfurter
Member
DarkMage619 said:
I don't do that, that's the point
I was saying that at this point you couldn't say that X360 is doing better than Xbox. But that doesn't mean that I think it does or will do worse, but that it's too early to say that.
sonycowboy
Member
GhaleonEB said:
I'm sure you know that those are shipment numbers and that there is ~some disparity between those and sales (oh god, does GAF know this). Microsoft also has listed shipments for the US of 900k, when NPD only showed 600k. And through the end of January, we still only show ~850k per NPD.
I'd wait for actual sales numbers to come through, especially since Europe doesn't seem to be suffering from the shortages like the US has, with respect to 360's.