• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

Analyst DFC: 'Question is not if Microsoft will exit the game business, but when'

In which order will the console vendors exit the industry (with all out by 2020)?


Results are only viewable after voting.
This report is flawed. Microsoft doesn't care about moving hardware units as mich as getting digital revenue from gamers on whatever platform, PC or console, they want to play on. They want ongoing revenue streams and they don't care which platform you are buying Microsoft product for. Its their same service transition they are doing in the business world. Its not a sign they are going to shut Xbox down.

I continue to think it's a weak argument based on a storefront that's only real benefit is to sell exclusives. With that model, Microsoft continues to lose revenue from third-party game sales and third-parties have no incentive to sell on that store as I don't see major publishers wanting to give away two copies of their games to back the play anywhere initiative.

I'm not downplaying the console, but I mainly brought an Xbox to play halo. As I was on the system anyhow, it led me to make more purchases on that platform that I could have just made on the PC or PS4. I've tried a few other exclusives simply as I had the system anyway and felt like I might as well try them out to get a little more value out of my purchase. The more I think about it, I'll just get my next halo fix on PC and most likely skip most of their other stuff. My third-party purchases will be on steam or PSN and I've already transitioned away from buying anything further on their platform as I don't want to become overly invested at least until I see how things go with them down the road.
 
Guys, they're not saying Xbox will necessarily go away, just that it might be sold or spun off from under the MS banner.

Who in their right mind would pick a console manufacturer? Xbox without MS would be pointless their funds would be to low.

So you're saying that the Xbox division will continue to require additional investment and not be a self supporting business?
 
MS is naturally consolidating Xbox into a larger Windows platform. I think when they leave consoles will depend on your definition of "console".

Nintendo has been fucking themselves over in the console space for the past 20 years and I can't imagine the NX will do much to change that (we can hope though).

Sony wins by default, it seems.
 
It's not mindblowing powers of foresight to predict MS will exit the gaming business. It's been pretty clear for a while now.

Scorpio seems a half-assed measure to entice people to Windows 10 and not a serious challenger to the PS4/Neo and NX. If they were serious about the Scorpio they wouldn't have announced all games will be cross platform with PC.

They'll end up between a rock and a hard place. The PS4/Neo and NX will dominate the console space because of their stable of quality exclusives and cheaper price, and high-end PCs will cannibalize Scorpio sales as they run its games better. Pretty baffling strategy from MS yet again.
 
- telling every game will be on PC too (but why would I buy your console if you tell me it'll get zero exclusive ?)

Uh, did you see last gen?
Exclusives don't move hardware in droves anymore it's big 3rd party titles like CoD, GTA and FIFA that do. Exclusives are a cherry whose importance has been overstated for some time now, with few exceptions.

And the average consumer don't care about PC gaming, Xbox will still have its trump cards over ps4
And MS wont cry over getting a bigger pool of customers to sell games to.

This argument has kept getting mentioned since E3 but thing is it makes no blind jot of difference to the consumer they lose nothing. The most that will happen is MS either gains a PC customer or has an XB1 customer switch to PC. They don't lose either way
 
Oh, a mod changed what this topic is about and added a poll.
I voted Nintendo last because they don't have anything else going for them.
 
Uh, did you see last gen?
Exclusives don't move hardware in droves anymore it's big 3rd party titles like CoD, GTA and FIFA that do. Exclusives are a cherry whose importance has been overstated for some time now, with few exceptions.

And the average consumer don't care about PC gaming, Xbox will still have its trump cards over ps4
And MS wont cry over getting a bigger pool of customers to sell games to.


This argument has kept getting mentioned since E3 but thing is it makes no blind jot of difference to the consumer they lose nothing. The most that will happen is MS either gains a PC customer or has an XB1 customer switch to PC. They don't lose either way

Don't agree. I think A LOT of Xboxs were sold based on halo alone. Forza too.
 
The least we can say is their strategy doesn't make much sense :

- closing game studios
- announcing a Xbox One Slim AND telling people there will be another more powerful console soon (I can see why, it's all about PS4 Neo, but you kill your own sales by doing so)
- telling every game will be on PC too (but why would I buy your console if you tell me it'll get zero exclusive ?)

Xbox brand always suffered from this mixed messaging (adding Kinect, removing Kinect, going all TV TV TV, then games again and so on...). You just don't understand what they're doing because they're not sure themselves about it either. As a consumer, I never understand why I should buy a MS product and I'm not even sure they understand what they try to do.

I think they definitely want to get out at some point now that taking back market share from Sony will be nearly impossible (after all, they closed a lot of studios...), but for some reason the ultimate decision to do so is still not there.

I'm not even sure Scorpio will be released before they close for good. On a business standpoint, releasing Scorpio makes zero sense with their lack of market share and studios... If Xbox was to become a global brand, it would already have happened long ago. All they had to do was investing in exclusive games and studios, but no, that would be too simple so they failed at that too...

If you're looking at this as just a console business then you're looking at it wrong.

The strategy makes perfect sense if you just accept the fact they Xbox is part of Windows now. The Xbox division was rolled into the Windows division over 2 years ago and the CEO said explicitly that they would use Xbox first-part and Xbox Live to increase the appeal of Windows.

On top of that, the CEO said that gaming is very important to Windows and his mobile-first vision, because gaming is the largest category of time and revenue spent in the mobile world. When he says mobile he means being able to take experiences with you across devices.

Xbox isn't going anywhere unless Windows dies off.
 
The S is a simple slim version with a 4K video (etc.) feature.
The Scorpio is more of a Steam. Well Xbox is becoming a PC service. So I "get" what this dude here is thinking.

Has there been anything to suggest this at all? Because what we know so far about the Scorpio that it is a more powerful Xbox with no exclusive software and will share the same library as an Xbox One & Xbox One S (with the exception of VR)
 
Why? A division spin off has been rumored for years now.

Frowned upon in GAF though. I've argued for a while that spinning Xbox off is the only solution consistent with Nadella's strategy to focus on enterprise and cloud. I don't personally hope for it because Microsoft had done great things for gaming, but I agree that it's inevitable.

And in my mind the best new home for the division is Nintendo.
 
It's possible for both consoles to co-exist if the price difference is big enough and the slim should allow them to cut costs on the vanilla X1, allowing for a price cut.
 
This is just silly. MS is exiting console gaming, thus their two newly-announced consoles!

smh

What I do think will happen, is that Xbox and Windows 10 will continue to merge, with Xbox picking up greater and greater functionality, and eventually effectively becoming a Windows HTPC that launches to a controller-centric OS overlay. Maintains the front-facing simplicity people want, while allowing them to fully take advantage of (what MS' hopes is) the Microsoft Windows ecosystem. Essentially a flagship line of mid-range gaming PCs.
 
Hahahaha what??

Please I need a link.

During the video for Project Scorpio, two minutes of puffery dedicated to Microsoft's bright Christmas 2017, there is a man who speaks with his mouth but betrays everything with his eyes. "This doesn't mean we're leaving the Xbox One behind," he says, but the truth is there to see as his eyes flick away from the camera. Microsoft began its E3 conference by revealing the redesigned Xbox One S - and then, it still amazes me now, closed the show by telling everyone they'd be fools to buy any kind of Xbox One.

DECEEEPTION
DISGRAAACE
tumblr_mklswdsb4r1s4fw1ho1_500.gif
 
Not really if you listen to their vision of the future that Spencer has said countless times.

And I don't think you are leaving the industry by releasing two new Xbox's.

That's what I'm saying.
There's no way they're leaving the industry
 
Isn't that basically what the Xbox One is already halfway to being?

No, the Xbox 1 is a traditional closed platform game console with some efforts being made to decentralise "app certification".

Pre-Geohot PS3s weren't halfway to being Steamboxes because they ran Linux either.
 
Pretty much.
Who'd have thought MS would run away with Valve's SteamMachine idea?

Pretty crazy isn't it.

Yeah I don't see Microsoft still making consoles 10 years from now.
.

Me neither. I don't see them making 'consoles' after the Scorpio. In fact, I don't really see it as a console. It's more like a hybrid PC or 'Windows box'. Outside of the dwindling number of Xbox hardcore, I can't see it being much of a success either.

If people want AAAA multiplat games, they'll get them on a cheaper PS4/Neo. If people want good exclusives, they'll get them on PS4/Neo or NX. If people want high-end gaming, they'll get these games for PC.
 
That's what I'm saying.
There's no way they're leaving the industry

I agree with you that they aren't planning on leaving the industry but they will not be a success going forward and they will eventually exit or spin off the division based on it being no longer profitable enough.
 
My assumption was that when the dedicated device market got too small to provide them with the value they need they would all just create PC clients ala Steam/Origin/etc. and use ports from their library (ex. PS Classics, Virtual Console) to leverage/differentiate themselves and then continue to hold their development studios to make exclusive content for their platform. Microsoft already seems to be going down that path.
 
When everyone else has already left the industry, Nintendo will somehow still be there kicking and screaming, saying: We turned the lights on and we'll turn lights off again.

Seriously though, I don't expect Microsoft to leave the industry (soon - eventually everyone will leave the industry; the question is always when and not if), but I wouldn't be very surprised about it either. It feels like the Xbox currently occupies a spot where it's not exactly clear what its strategic purpose is and if it's actually benefiting Microsoft as a whole. They seem to be hoping that by uniting Xbox and Windows 10 they can push their own Windows 10 store, which definitely would be great for MS, but whether or not people will actually embrace that remains in the air. It doesn't feel like Rise of the Tomb Raider, Quantum Break or Killer Instinct were able to break out of the W10 store stigma.
 
I love how I'm being told by everyone and their grandma to forget consoles and just "upgrade my PC".

I don't have a PC to upgrade. I have a 5 year old laptop and a handful of iPads scattered around my house. I own consoles to play games.
 
I love how I'm being told by everyone and their grandma to forget consoles and just "upgrade my PC".

I don't have a PC to upgrade. I have a 5 year old laptop and a handful of iPads scattered around my house. I own consoles to play games.

I have a newer laptop, but yeah. Same deal for me. I will keep buying consoles because I am integrated into the ecosystems and that is where I prefer to play. I really don't give a shit if the games are also on PC or not. As it will not affect me.
 
Microsoft leaving the industry? I just can't imagine windows going away any time, ever. That leaves me between sony and nintendo. I guessed nintendo first, although on second thought maybe Sony. Kind of a toss up to me.
 
It's very true that ms are currently throwing their console business under the bus because they've doubled down on trying to push UWP on pc

No matter what people claim, without exclusives to hold you hostage to a walled garden ecosystem consumers have no incentive to buy into it.



I don't think ms will stop making consoles in the long run though.
UWP is failing hard and MS will eventually fold and go back to console exclusives and their xbox business, they have no other choice.

For now they're still deluding themselves into thinking they can force pc users into UWP.

I see all these xbox ports as microsoft doubling down in desperation.


I suggest xbox fans keep buying their xbox games on xbox, it's not worth supporting UWP
 
I have a feeling Scorpio may be Microsofts last console. If it's not a success then it definitely will, there putting everything into it, all the power they can muster, as it's what they think we want. If it turns out its not what people want then they wont have a clue, no where else to go, no more strategies left.
 
Considering Nintendo is a gamer maker only... if they leave it's only due to being out of business or the brand disappearing... so no way they go first.

Microsoft will do it if it makes sense same with Sony... but with the PlayStation being Sony's cash cow... I can't imagine Sony dropping consoles... unless licensing set top boxes that can run the "PlayStation" platform becomes a thing... and even then... i think they only do it if Microsoft does it and becomes successful at it.

So Microsoft > Sony > Nintendo
 
Considering Nintendo is a gamer maker only... if they leave it's only due to being out of business or the brand disappearing... so no way they go first.

Microsoft will do it if it makes sense same with Sony... but with the PlayStation being Sony's cash cow... I can't imagine Sony dropping consoles... unless licensing set top boxes that can run the "PlayStation" platform becomes a thing... and even then... i think they only do it if Microsoft does it and becomes successful at it.

So Microsoft > Sony > Nintendo

Microsoft=Nintendo=Sony

Theyre all staying
 
When everyone else has already left the industry, Nintendo will somehow still be there kicking and screaming, saying: We turned the lights on and we'll turn lights off again.

Seriously though, I don't expect Microsoft to leave the industry (soon - eventually everyone will leave the industry; the question is always when and not if), but I wouldn't be very surprised about it either. It feels like the Xbox currently occupies a spot where it's not exactly clear what its strategic purpose is and if it's actually benefiting Microsoft as a whole. They seem to be hoping that by uniting Xbox and Windows 10 they can push their own Windows 10 store, which definitely would be great for MS, but whether or not people will actually embrace that remains in the air. It doesn't feel like Rise of the Tomb Raider, Quantum Break or Killer Instinct were able to break out of the W10 store stigma.

Forget about tomb raider, QB or killer instinct, even Minecraft can't help much, not many will choose Winstore if they have other options.
People say exclusive doesn't matter, obviously MS think exclusive is important, that's why all their first party are exclusive to Windows store, if they put them on steam, 98% of PC gamers will choose steam.
 
Considering Nintendo is a gamer maker only... if they leave it's only due to being out of business or the brand disappearing... so no way they go first.

Microsoft will do it if it makes sense same with Sony... but with the PlayStation being Sony's cash cow... I can't imagine Sony dropping consoles... unless licensing set top boxes that can run the "PlayStation" platform becomes a thing... and even then... i think they only do it if Microsoft does it and becomes successful at it.

So Microsoft > Sony > Nintendo

Playstation is not their cash cow.
 
Top Bottom