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Analyst DFC: 'Question is not if Microsoft will exit the game business, but when'

In which order will the console vendors exit the industry (with all out by 2020)?


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Luckily, Gabe does not seem interested in selling.

You can actually pinpoint where Valve stopped treating digital sales like they still have physical shelf space limitations. It's a very good decision indeed.

Then Gabe should buy the XB division.

Both companies are trying to accomplish what the other is known for.

edit - a Steam XBox Scoprio. I'd buy it
 
If that's what MS is betting on, then RIP Xbox.

It's not. For that to be the case they would need to NOT be supporting PC in a bid to win them to the Scorpio platform. If anything, Scorpio proves that MS isn't just still playing in the console market, but they are willing to bleed to keep in it.

Scorpio also seems like a way to keep the Xbox console closer to PC so they can do more cross-play and have a unified VR platform. Microsoft wants to unify PC and Console gamers in a way they feel Sony can't. That's their killer app right now.
 
PC sales are still on the decline though. Lots of businesses don't need large desktops anymore. Good thing the gaming side of the PC market is on the rise.


That's good news, but the larger trend is worrisome. I want console and pc gaming to thrive.
 
I am surprised to see an analyst parroting the "Why buy an Xbox when you can just get a PC upgrade?" nonsense that has become a twice-a-day thread here now.

For many people, getting a desktop PC is already out of the question. And that's before you factor in other non-starters like building your own rig or installing a $200-$400 videocard that likely won't work with OEM power supplies. We're in a laptop/tablet/phone world, now.

We can keep on saying that GAF =/= the buying public but it's all just opinions. I agree with yours.

Also, in relation to the XBO v XBS v Scorpio offering there is such a verifiable phenomenon as Goldilocks Pricing. If anything the XBS kills the XBO for new consumer entrants to the console space (not GAF entrants to the console space). Not a bad thing.
 
That's good news, but the larger trend is worrisome. I want console and pc gaming to thrive.

PC gaming has technically always been niche. I know there are a lot of us but at the end of the day people just don't want to deal with the issues of PC gaming when you can go to the store buy a little box and plug it in and play with your friends.

I don't think PC gaming is dying by any means but to actually think that it is going to be a huge part of the market is a little overzealous.
 
Although cash matters, it is even more important for the XBOX division to contribute to MS' "big picture", as in beeing in line with MS strategy to make Windows 10 the most attractive platform for all kinds of devices.

The XBOX division is in much bigger trouble should Nadella ever come to the conclusion that they don't need it anymore, compared to loosing some money.
Oh yeah I understand this and totally agree. That was my point: IF Xbox isn't profitable, there must be some other strategic purpose behind it (aka to drive Windows 10/UWP/Windows store adoption).

But that also means it could very easily get cut the minute it no longer justifies its existence. If Windows store only manages to achieve the same market share as, say, Windows Phone did after a couple years, IMO the pressure will be incredibly strong for MS to exit the gaming business.

Edit: okay I thought Xbox wasn't profitable. I am having a hard time finding any concrete info on whether it is or not.
 
Oh yeah I understand this and totally agree. That was my point: Xbox isn't profitable, so there must be some other strategic purpose behind it (aka to drive Windows 10/UWP/Windows store adoption).

But that also means it could very easily get cut the minute it no longer justifies its existence. If Windows store only manages to achieve the same market share as, say, Windows Phone did after a couple years, IMO the pressure will be incredibly strong for MS to exit the gaming business.

Xbox as a business IS profitable. where did you get the idea it wasn't? MS isn't losing money on Xbone from what i understand.
 
I can't believe we are back to talking about this, as if MS didn't just double down on PC and console. The console business is profitable. Why would MS abandon it?
 
Oh yeah I understand this and totally agree. That was my point: Xbox isn't profitable, so there must be some other strategic purpose behind it (aka to drive Windows 10/UWP/Windows store adoption).

But that also means it could very easily get cut the minute it no longer justifies its existence. If Windows store only manages to achieve the same market share as, say, Windows Phone did after a couple years, IMO the pressure will be incredibly strong for MS to exit the gaming business.

This is the exact type of post that needs to cite a reference showing the Xbox division as unprofitable.
 
PC gaming has technically always been niche.

PC Gaming has technically always been bigger than consoles can dream of.
Solitaire and Minesweeper players probably number in the hundreds of millions.

Let's not forget that Valve was founded because during research the most common software installed on Windows PCs turned out to be Doom.
 
if this poll was during last generation, sony would have been topping the list to exit the industry first. how times have changed!!
 
I can't believe we are back to talking about this, as if MS didn't just double down on PC and console. The console business is profitable. Why would MS abandon it?

I hope soon we get threads like "@kilerwarior10293 tweets that xbox is stupid, discuss?"
 
Hardware? Maybe, Software? Never.

if this poll was during last generation, sony would have been topping the list to exit the industry first. how times have changed!!
While this would have been true for the start of the gen, later on Sony ended up proving its spot.
 
Clearly the analyst doesn't have a clue. Like the many others who were saying this when the original Xbox was performing poorly.

What's more unfortunate is the number of people who want Microsoft to fail.

Their shareholders don't want Microsoft to fail, but they want their console division to go the hell away. It barely turns a profit and they see it as a waste of time and resources that could be focused elsewhere. The whole UWP seems like a answer to that by weening people into a digital platform that is basically pure profit aside from maintaining servers, marketing, etc.

Microsoft cares more about Windows 10 and device unification than they do about their XB hardware. It's going to happen. They don't even report XB1 sales numbers anymore.

If anyone here is an investor and/or keeps up with investment news, this really seems like the direction the they are taking. The fact still stands that the majority of MSFT shareholders want to see this piece of hardware and support for it go away.
 
PC gaming has technically always been niche. I know there are a lot of us but at the end of the day people just don't want to deal with the issues of PC gaming when you can go to the store buy a little box and plug it in and play with your friends.

I don't think PC gaming is dying by any means but to actually think that it is going to be a huge part of the market is a little overzealous.

Actually data suggests that PC gaming (thanks to MMO and f2p markets) is now bigger than console gaming. More people than ever are willing to play some type of game on their PC.
 
Not everyone is a power user with a PC who asks themselves, "why don't I just upgrade my computer?"

It's like the specialist press keeps forgetting that. I agree with a lot of the points, but I'm getting sick of this assumption the 84 million people that bought a 360 last gen were also PC gamers with graphics cards. Let alone even *own* a PC...
There are pre- built gaming pcs you can just buy, no idea if they're any good but they exist and can be brought as easily as any console.
 
Gaming is the only segment other than Windows where Microsoft has a brand that is somewhat popular with consumers. I think that is incentive enough to hold on to Xbox. It's just that Windows isn't the unstoppable behemoth in computing it once was. It's lost a lot of ground to Android and iOS and people are starting to think that maybe they don't need a Windows PC anymore.

Back in 2005 Microsoft could afford to shun the PC in favor of Xbox because noone was challenging the dominance of Windows in the consumer space. Now Windows needs propping up, it needs unique selling points and gaming is one of the advantage that Windows has over Android and iOS. Strengthening Windows is much more important to Microsoft than battling it out with Sony over a limited market.
 
That's good news, but the larger trend is worrisome. I want console and pc gaming to thrive.

There's always going to be hardware there, but they won't necessarily be focused primarily on games.

You'll see digital platforms rather than static hardware that basically physical rights management for games. It's going to be about how has the most exclusives on their storefront and not some physical hardware. It's already happening now.

It's senseless to spend money and contract out work to third party hardware manufacturers when all you've got to do is set up a digital ecosystem that can be ran on whatever device a consumer chooses to play their game on.

There's an all digital future coming. It's not a matter of if.


****Also devices means phones, tablets, laptops, desktops, etc. Things both "normal" consumers and "power" consumers use everyday.
 
Microsoft future xbox related NPDs will not look good. People waiting on Scorpio, and people buying more games on PC will take away from their numbers.
 
I brought this up a few days back and was called "not bright."

I suppose this analyst isn't bright either. Mixed messaging is BAD. Even if the messaging at times is a positive thing, consumers are strange creatures. People still think the One can't play used games. I'm not sold on Microsoft leaving Xbox anytime soon though.

This idea isn't bright that MS would leave gaming. The Scorpio announcement shows large future investment. You don't design Scorpio then plan to leave or abandon the Xbox brand.
 
I am surprised to see an analyst parroting the "Why buy an Xbox when you can just get a PC upgrade?" nonsense that has become a twice-a-day thread here now.

For many people, getting a desktop PC is already out of the question. And that's before you factor in other non-starters like building your own rig or installing a $200-$400 videocard that likely won't work with OEM power supplies. We're in a laptop/tablet/phone world, now.
My question is who the fuck is DFC? Just because someone has "analyst" next to their name doesn't mean shit. Are these the guys? http://www.dfcint.com/wp/the-dfc-team/ For all we know these guys formulated their analysis from this very forum because it sounds like almost every thread that's popped up here.
 
Actually data suggests that PC gaming (thanks to MMO and f2p markets) is now bigger than console gaming. More people than ever are willing to play some type of game on their PC.

Sure, but the high-end market small. I think of current consoles as like a low-end version of that high-end market if that makes sense. The games are often the same but with "PC gaming" we are usually talking about spending a lot more money to play the games at higher fidelity. Not playing Hearthstone on your work laptop.
 
Technically you could say that they all will at some point. No corp lasts forever after all, no matter how successful it is, large multinationals being propped up aside...
 
PC gaming has technically always been niche. [...]

I don't think PC gaming is dying by any means but to actually think that it is going to be a huge part of the market is a little overzealous.
High-end PC gaming is niche. If you go beyond the high end then clearly more people are playing games on PC than on any console.

More people play League of Legends every month than PS4 and XB1 HW sales so far combined. That's one game.
 
The Xbox One is my gateway into a Windows ecosystem and as long as it gives me what I want, I'll stay there.
The Xbox One and a Windows laptop give me far more flexibility that my Apple TV4 and MacBook provides, it's cheaper and more powerful and with Scorpio and a surface pro 4/ surface book it seems that's going to get a lot better.
I just wish that windows mobile was there too.
 
High-end PC gaming of triple-A multiplatform franchises is still kind of niche compared to consoles, sure. But if one looks at the big picture he will realize in nearly every other segment the PC is the market leader.

PC Gaming has technically always been bigger than consoles can dream of.
Solitaire and Minesweeper players probably number in the hundreds of millions.

Let's not forget that Valve was founded because during research the most common software installed on Windows PCs turned out to be Doom.

Actually data suggests that PC gaming (thanks to MMO and f2p markets) is now bigger than console gaming. More people than ever are willing to play some type of game on their PC.

Alright you are all correct. Let me try to explain what I was getting at.

How many people actually go out and either order or make themselves the dedicated PC's they will need to play things that are being released on PC on super uber settings?

Free to play and MMO's are a huge market and there is even a large market from STEAM and other digital distributors. But as a whole is the growing market in PC gaming a large portion of people who will purchase top of the line super PC's with awesome graphics cards and is that growing PC market on the same level of growth as console gaming dwindles from time to time?

Are the console players that are leaving consoles going and getting gaming PC's?

I thought the mass uptick in PC game sales was attributed more to ideas and things such as the steam box and less tied to the super hardcore niche GTX 1070's and super crazy processors. I won't deny the huge growth in PC gaming that we have not seen since the Half Life days but at the same time the ease of plug and play is still there for the mass audience.


Edit: I am an idiot, Durante was cool enough to get where I was going and answer it with what I was trying to ask.

I heart you Durante. You are the best. Also thanks for the other responses as well.
 
I can't believe we are back to talking about this, as if MS didn't just double down on PC and console. The console business is profitable. Why would MS abandon it?

Lots of profitable operations get shut down by big companies. Because there are other ways to invest their money that are more profitable.
 
Clearly the analyst doesn't have a clue. Like the many others who were saying this when the original Xbox was performing poorly.

What's more unfortunate is the number of people who want Microsoft to fail.

Maybe this should tell you something how company is perceived among people.




IMHO analyst is only partially right - Microsoft started exit from console hardware business and they are attaching xbox name to windows 10 storefront as a measure to save face but ultimate goal is forcing everyone into W1o ecosystem and getting 30% cut from as many apps sold through the store as possible.
 
Theyre all absolutely gateways into Windows 10, but when Nadella is gushing for the Xbox brand at E3 and praising that its the only thing within Microsoft that causes such a rapturous applause and passion, and also publicly stating that the greatest boost for ecosystem investment is games, Xbox really isnt as expendable as people say it is.

I didn't list "things people say at E3" as a leading indicator because it's absurdly useless as one. The baseline level of corporate double-speak makes any assumption of motive or intent nearly pointless.

If Nadella were going to sell the division for scrap tomorrow, he wouldn't say, "This was a monumental failure, we're going to strangle this thing in its crib and get back to business." He would say, "We have been deeply touched by the passion fans of the XBox(tm) brand have shown over the past decade, with (x) million consoles and (y) million games sold, and over (z) hours played on XBox Live, there's no question that the XBox has changed the way we play games and live our lives. Now, as we move into the sunset of the XBox One All-in-One Game Console, we know those players are looking ahead with equal optimism to the bright future for open-platform Windows 10 gaming."

As a more concrete example, does the statement "the greatest boost for ecosystem investment is games" mean, "We know that gamers buy consoles for exclusive games and are committed to maintaining a high quality and quantity of XB1 exclusives," or does it mean, "Games are too important to waste on XB1 exclusively when they could be boosting investment in the Windows Store and general Win10 ecosystem"?

Talk is cheap. Follow the money.
 
Guys, they're not saying Xbox will necessarily go away, just that it might be sold or spun off from under the MS banner.



So you're saying that the Xbox division will continue to require additional investment and not be a self supporting business?
Yes.. that's exactly what I am saying.
 
Are the console players that are leaving consoles going and getting gaming PC's?

Well, Sony seems to think so, supposedly the Neo is partly a way of mitigating that. The high-end PC gaming market is relatively small but it has to be much larger than it used to be. People are snapping up $600 GPUs as fast as retailers can list them. Also, I think that the number of people with console-level hardware or higher has to be significant, since even entry-level cheapo cards like the 750Ti can provide console-like visuals and performance.
 
Shouldn't ms be working on some f2p or mobile style games for the store? Or do they make them already and we just don't talk about them here often?
 
PC Gaming has technically always been bigger than consoles can dream of.
Solitaire and Minesweeper players probably number in the hundreds of millions.

Let's not forget that Valve was founded because during research the most common software installed on Windows PCs turned out to be Doom.


That's specifically the segment I'm not addressing because it isn't relevant in fact, one could argue that's the gaming segment that mobile is capturing.
 
That's specifically the segment I'm not addressing because it isn't relevant in fact, one could argue that's the gaming segment that mobile is capturing.

Do League of Legends players count as 'Pc gamers'?
They can play the game on a low spec machine.
They cannot play the game on any system other than a PC due to the intrinsic design of the game and its necessary inputs.
 
Lots of profitable operations get shut down by big companies. Because there are other ways to invest their money that are more profitable.

Sure when it's a small profit. Ms has made more then a small profit on console gaming. It's actually one of the few success stories outside of Windows and Office.
 
Do League of Legends players count as 'Pc gamers'?
They can play the game on a low spec machine.
They cannot play the game on any system other than a PC due to the intrinsic design of the game and its necessary inputs.

You said Minesweeper, etc. I'm talking about games like Evony, Angry Birds, Clash of Clans, SW: Commander, etc. Sure, people play on PC, but mobile is taking screen time away from PC's.
 
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