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[Pureauthor]

*sigh*

I think every single conceivable outcome has been 'predicted' by analysts already. At this rate, someone has to be correct.

 

[farnham]

Userbase is only one factor. Software sales # dictate moreso support and success. Nearing the end of its life the Xbox was selling more copies of the same game on it than the PS2 was. This gave publishers the concept and comfort of support toward the Xbox brand which in turn became the 360 brand as they knew they could turn a profit. Having a massive install base is great if you are Madden where the majority of the market is there to buy your game but it cannot help something like Okami for instance.

The true test with the Wii is whether people who bought the machine are happy enough with Wii Sports or if they buy other games available on the machine throughout its life. As well, if they do are the games going to be Nintendo titles or 3rd party games? If the DS is an example of the market for the Wii then Nintendo is going to benefit while the 3rd parties are going to eek out a bit of money here and there where appropriate.

wasnt that the test of the DS as well

looks like the test was more then passed

 

[Odysseus]

*sigh*

I think every single conceivable outcome has been 'predicted' by analysts already. At this rate, someone has to be correct.

no one has predicted the death of the industry yet

well, they've predicted the wii to win, i guess that's the same thing

 

[Branduil]

Here's what I think.

The Xbox 360 will top out at about 35 million units worldwide, and end up in second place.

The Wii will gain and maintain second place for much of the generation, then completely run out of gas and start selling worse than the Gamecube did.

The PS3 will win, but sell just a little over half what the PS2 did during the years when it matters. It will then sell another 20 million or so in the years in which the other two consoles are dead and their sequels are out.

Why do people think this will happen? Has there ever been a case where a system has sold incredibly well for a while and then just dropped off a cliff?

 

[soundwave05]

The attach rate for the Wii is also very high, something like 3:1 on top of Wii Sports being bundled with the system.

 

[Newzboyz99]

My opinion is that 360 and Wii have done a double wammy on PS3. Wii has undercutted it majorly, and 360 is simply had the year headstart that developers are looking for because lets face it, and PS3 game can be made on 360 no problem. Other than reputation, why in gods green earth would a developer pour money into PS3 only development? The very least is that 360 will see ports of PS3 projects to offset potential losses, and japanese centric companies will be forced to develop for the insanely popular Wii. Sony is stranded in right field...and ONLY their massive reputation will save them from complete disaster this generation.

 

[Speevy]

Why do people think this will happen? Has there ever been a case where a system has sold incredibly well for a while and then just dropped off a cliff?

Every system Sega has ever made save for the ones that failed immediately, PSP? Arguably even Xbox and Gamecube.

 

[soundwave05]

I think Wii will garner a large chunk of Sony's more casual audience. Not all of Sony's 100 million userbase is hardcore players ... I'd say probably only 35-45% of it is.

There's lots of kids that own a PS2, there's lots of people who bought one when it was cheaper and play more casually, there's lots of people that prefer stuff like Sing Star, DDR, etc. on it.

Nintendo can take this audience, because Microsoft is also clueless as to how to attract this crowd on top of that. It's almost an ideal situation for Nintendo in that respect. That could be a windfall of 20+ million extra customers that go Nintendo this coming gen, rather than Sony.

Look at the PS3 and be honest ... can you really see that thing in the bedroom of some kid? Not gonna happen. Complete overkill in terms of size/tech/and especailly price for anyone who isn't a hardcore player, not to mention Nintendo's controller is much more accessible on top of that.

 

[FitzOfRage]

the SNES only caught up to the Genesis late in the 16-bit race, I mean late.

The PS3 will prevail for multiple reasons
- software drought on the Wii will force gamers to buy a 360 or PS3
- PS2 opters who havn't gone next gen yet, will chose PS3
- franchises that PS1, PS2 owners like are going to the PS3
- it's black

Sega's biggest victory with the Genesis was in marketing . The SNES caught up to the Genesis very early, within its first year. But even though Nintendo overcame Sega's 2 million or so unit head start, they couldn't move more than a million units ahead of Sega. So they were deadlocked for years, but the margin was still in Nintendo's favor in that time.

Now what happened later of course Sega pulled the plug on the Genesis and Nintendo was able to widen the gap from 1 million units in their favor to 5 million units.

 

[Branduil]

Every system Sega has ever made save for the ones that failed immediately, PSP? Arguably even Xbox and Gamecube.

The Saturn and Dreamcast were never as big as the Wii is right now. The PSP didn't as much start selling horribly as the DS started selling incredibly. The Xbox and GC never started out as strongly as the Wii and didn't drop off as much as slowly burn.

I just don't see any precedent for the "people will suddenly get tired of the Wii, lol" predictions at all.

 

[A Link to the Past]

Every system Sega has ever made save for the ones that failed immediately, PSP? Arguably even Xbox and Gamecube.

SMS was always popular in Europe 'n stuff, Genesis was killed by Sega, Dreamcast was killed by Sega and was never very strong compared to PS2, PSP was only slightly stronger than the DS, and Xbox/GCN were never doing that exceptionally.

 

[soundwave05]

The SNES was actually gaining and would've overtaken the Genesis earlier ... but they decided to censor Mortal Kombat and that gave Sega all the ammo they needed.

Remember in 1992, Street Fighter 2 (exclusive to the SNES), Zelda III, and Super Mario Kart had come out and really started to chip away at the Genesis.

The Dreamcast's launch is overrated btw (in terms of how successful it was). IIRC even the N64 outsold it without too much problem even early on. There certainly were not lineups for the Dreamcast ever in late January 2000, nor did the Dreamcast ever outsell the PS2 by a 4:1 ratio in Japan for any time period.

 

[Ulairi]

the SNES only caught up to the Genesis late in the 16-bit race, I mean late.

The PS3 will prevail for multiple reasons
- software drought on the Wii will force gamers to buy a 360 or PS3
- PS2 opters who havn't gone next gen yet, will chose PS3
- franchises that PS1, PS2 owners like are going to the PS3
- it's black

There is a software drought on all of the systems right now.

 

[soundwave05]

There is no software drought on the Wii

Wario Ware: Smooth Moves, SSX Blur, Sonic: SoTR, and Super Paper Mario within the first 4 months (and Tiger Woods PGA, Wii Play, Medal of Honor Vanguard) ... I mean c'mon.

GAF thinks the world revolves around their gaming tastes. That's a stronger first 4 months post launch than the PS2, GC, XBox, DS, or PSP got. Not to mention you can't find a system to buy anywhere because they all still sell out within days, if not minutes/hours of hitting a store shelf. So that "drought" sure is killing demand, huh?

Zelda: TP and Wii Sports are still going to draw people to the system for another few months on top of that. It's not like the calendar hits Jan. 1st and these games suddenly disapear (again "the world revolves around GAF" idiocy logic). You may not like it, but there isn't anything on the market like the Wiimote and Wii Sports, and that's going to be a draw in and of itself for a while yet.

 

[Deku]

There is no software drought on the Wii.

What? I think there is. It's nice to see EA step up and provide the more generic type of games casuals will enjoy, but there most definitely is a drought.

 

[A Link to the Past]

What? I think there is. It's nice to see EA step up and provide the more generic type of games casuals will enjoy, but there most definitely is a drought.

Naw. I mean, there's four potential million sellers released for the Wii January-April.

 

[Grecco]

I just don't see any precedent for the "people will suddenly get tired of the Wii, lol" predictions at all.

Well its the evolved form of the "Wii will be worse than the GCN/Not gonna sell at all lol prediction.

 

[fusoya59]

gaf is always wrong.
gaf says analysts are wrong.
therefore analysts are right.

but analysts are always wrong. CONTRADICTION.
therefore gaf is not always wrong.

hrmm... i now have a little more confidence in gaf!

 

[Branduil]

Well its the evolved form of the "Wii will be worse than the GCN/Not gonna sell at all lol prediction.

I think that's probably a big part of it.

 

[soundwave05]

What? I think there is. It's nice to see EA step up and provide the more generic type of games casuals will enjoy, but there most definitely is a drought.

For your tastes perhaps, in the first four months, Wii has four solid releases in each month. Wario Ware, SSX Blur, Sonic, then Super Paper Mario. That's not a drought, that's actually probably above average for a new console's post-launch period.

NBA Courtside 2002 for Jan ... then nothing in Feb .... nothing in March ... Resident in April ... nothing in May ... that's a drought. PS2 had a terrible post launch also.

If there's any drought on the Wii right now, it's a supply drought. Nintendo is going to ramp production up March, that's when you'll see some of the bigger titles start to come out, but there's still solid releases come out throughout that period.

 

[thirty]

geez this thread is no better than the analyst predictions. where are some of you getting your predictions short of just making things up? only a handfull of people have mentioned something accurate by saying it's the *games* that matter. nothing else. besides the ps2 being 1/3rd the price of 360 it's its insane library of games that keeps it going.

"wii is the market leader." on what planet? "once so and so surpasses 360 this year" um so 360 sales are going to come to a halt with halo 3 and gta 4 coming this year? :lol i'll admit i'm skewed in thinking the 360 will indeed hold it's lead there's no reason to think otherwise. lets get back to that games thing. 2007. ps 3? *still* an unknown besides shared 3rd party titles. wii? LOTS of games but what the big idea behind holding them all until Q 4? 360? best 3rd party support and a highly unusual slew of 1st party games. crackdown w/ h3 beta, forza, halo 3, blue dragon, plus more not to mention varied digital distribution like no other console and online play like no other.

with all that said not even factoring in possible price drops, looking at the games alone it's easy to see 360, wii then ps3.

 

[ethelred]

It looks like GAF is about to have a soundwave drought.

 

[Speevy]

:lol What the heck?

 

[Branduil]

What did Soundwave do?

 

[krypt0nian]

It looks like GAF is about to have a soundwave drought.

For your tastes perhaps...

 

[Newzboyz99]

Why was Soundwave banned? Rational thought ftl.

 

[donny2112]

Fact of the matter is, 99.9% of the population at gaf, if forced to be in a prediction battle with an analyst, would lose over the long term. Period.

If you narrowed that down to those who actually participate in the prediction threads, it'd be a lot different. Case in point: Of the 24 people who predicted total 2006 sales for all platforms in March 2006, 23 of them did better than the professional "analyst."

speaking of data, new npd a week from thursday

"The dawning of a new era" on so many levels. :lol

 

[Wonderdave]

The median age of a gamer is 33 ( all platforms, PC included ). let me repeat that, 33. people tend to forget that in fact someone will call that number into doubt even though a simple search will confirm that data or a number near it , depending on whose data you use. Hardcore gamers trend younger, casual gamers trend older, but the middle holds at 33.

People seem to ignore that little bit of data. people will read this and go " 33, no f'in way " but that who you have to sell to if you want take the crown in this or any generation. So heres the question. Do you think that the Wii has legs with 33 year old gamers. people with full time jobs and thousands of dollars in disposable income per year. That's who MS and Sony are chasing. Nintendo is chasing the parents of those too young to have the cash to support they're own video game hobby. For certain the adult Nintendo faithful line up for their fix and some others will buy into the hype but I don't see that as being enough to support the kind of sales they will need for 30M+ consoles this generation.

Some people here will take offense at saying Ninty will top out around 30M but Nintendo themselves won't complain because they are set up to profit when they come in dead last in sales for this generation. Anything above dead last with 20M or so in sales is gravy.

For all that it's said that the Wii isn't competing directly with the X360 or the PS3 this is not true . They are competing and coming up short in every way. the control scheme is different but not automatticaly better. They shot them selves in the foot by proving the lack of an advantage in control by releasing Z:TP for both Wii and GC.

So it might be a good idea to wait for the Euro launch and the games of summer for both systems before calling a winner and even then I'd wait for 2008 for any definite trend too appear.
http://www.theesa.com/facts/top_10_facts.php

 

[Link]

The median age of a gamer is 33 ( all platforms, PC included ). let me repeat that, 33. people tend to forget that in fact someone will call that number into doubt even though a simple search will confirm that data or a number near it , depending on whose data you use. Hardcore gamers trend younger, casual gamers trend older, but the middle holds at 33.

You might want to look into why the data shows that as being the median age before I take the rest of your post seriously.

Spoiler

Hint: It's called "solitaire."

EDIT - I just seriously the read the rest of your post and wow..... that's a pitiful argument.

 

[909er]

Why do people think this will happen? Has there ever been a case where a system has sold incredibly well for a while and then just dropped off a cliff?

The GC and Xbox, following their launch and December.

 

[Haunted]

yada yada

Man, this is going to be a looong gen for you.

 

[Kangu]

Why was Soundwave banned? Rational thought ftl.

I think Wii will garner a large chunk of Sony's more casual audience. Not all of Sony's 100 million userbase is hardcore players ... I'd say probably only 35-45% of it is.

Pulling statistics out of your ass like this gets you banned about 38% of the time.

 

[Mr Toast]

Whoever wins, wallets lose.

I havent seen a console war with 3 viable systems to choose from that are so different from another. PS2/XB/GC you could get away with possibly missing one system thanks to them basically doing the same sort of game. 360/PS3/Wii have in many ways some stark differences between their respective gaming visions that means there should be room for all in a single household, time permitting.

I really dont care who "wins" so long as the good ideas succeed over the shit ones. In that sense, all systems should be viable for the sake of better gaming.

 

[AniHawk]

Pulling statistics out of your ass like this gets you banned about 38% of the time.

Forty percent of all people know that.

 

[Odysseus]

I really dont care who "wins" so long as the good ideas succeed over the **** ones.

i agree, everyone should lose

 

[Y2Kev]

LOL I saw a shirt that said "5/4 people have trouble with fractions"

lol percentages with no meaning lol

 

[MrSardonic]

Analysts. We finally admit we don't have a clue.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The GC and Xbox, following their launch and December.

Talking about a drop from a November/December launch month is quite different from any prediction about a shift after all consoles have been out 2-4 years.

 

[pilonv1]

We should have a GAF ANAL-YSTS (HUR HUR) challenge. Everyone likes to complain about them getting it wrong. These people should make their own predictions and we can laugh at them 12 months later.

 

[ethelred]

We should have a GAF ANAL-YSTS (HUR HUR) challenge. Everyone likes to complain about them getting it wrong. These people should make their own predictions and we can laugh at them 12 months later.

If you narrowed that down to those who actually participate in the prediction threads, it'd be a lot different. Case in point: Of the 24 people who predicted total 2006 sales for all platforms in March 2006, 23 of them did better than the professional "analyst."

Happy?

 

[Grecco]

We should have a GAF ANAL-YSTS (HUR HUR) challenge. Everyone likes to complain about them getting it wrong. These people should make their own predictions and we can laugh at them 12 months later.

We already did that with the PSP/DS predictions.

 

[AniHawk]

If you narrowed that down to those who actually participate in the prediction threads, it'd be a lot different. Case in point: Of the 24 people who predicted total 2006 sales for all platforms in March 2006, 23 of them did better than the professional "analyst."

WOOHOO! Bringin' down the average!

 

[Maxwell House]

all three will have a market share loss, this gen will have a overall loss for all 3

the 360 will almost match the closest to the Xbox1 if MS decides not to kill off the 360 too early.

The Wii ill not match the GC. Almost but not

The PS3 will never ever hit the 100 million mark like the PS2 or PS1. It will take the biggest user base loss...

but, by 2010 there will be the PS3 will have a bigger user base then the 360 and the Wii.

The PS3 is made to last 7-8 years

The 360 has no choice to have add-on upgrades or a redisgn

The Wii has no room to manuver. Nintendo will have no choice to make a new next gen console sooner than later

360 is easily going to sell more units than the Xbox did. I don't think this can even be questioned.

Wii will certainly outsell GC as well. Again, I don't think this can even be questioned.

And I seriously doubt the PS3 outsells either the Wii or 360 this generation. It looks to be in a world of hurt. It will NOT last 7-8 years. The only reason PS2 has lasted so long is because it obliterated its competition. PS3 has no chance of doing that his generation. I think both Wii and 360 will last as long as PS3 does, if not longer. This time around, Nintendo and MS aren't going to simply abandon their consoles prematurely..they will have no reason to, after having amassed a much larger user base than in the previous generation.

And I think Wii is going to be the clear victor worldwide this time (although, not at near the market dominance that PS2 accomplished).

BTW, why the heck do you think 360 or Wii need a redesign to compete with PS3?? 360 has shown no problems keeping up with PS3 power wise, and people simply don't seem to care that Wii is underpowered. Neither console needs any sort of redesign to continue to sell units.

 

[Maxwell House]

PS3 and X360 are gonna get a boost when this game comes out.

VF5 FTW

I really don't think VF5 has very much console moving power, at all. I don't expect to see much of a spike in PS3 or 360 sales when it hits.

 

[ethelred]

The Wii won't outsell the GameCube? :lol

It'll sell at least half the GameCube's total worldwide sales in Japan alone. The rest of that will be a piece of cake in North America and Europe. Whether it's ever the worldwide sales leader or not is another matter entirely, and I'm still not convinced that it will be.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Speev's, and Gutter trashes predictions are so bad I dont even know how to reply to them. Honestly.

Do you two actually think it will pan out that way? Seriously? Or are these desperate hopes?

So bad.

I am bookmarking this thread.

 

[Maxwell House]

I also believe that Wii360 will become pretty common in North America and Europe, especially after 360 has a $100 price drop. I believe most of Japan will just be Wii owners.

 

[gutter_trash]

Speev's, and Gutter trashes predictions are so bad I dont even know how to reply to them. Honestly.

Do you two actually think it will pan out that way? Seriously? Or are these desperate hopes?

So bad.

I am bookmarking this thread.

thank god I'm not annalyst and just an animator

 

[KINGMOKU]

thank god I'm not annalyst and just an animator

It's not that. To make so bad of a prediction, it makes you look as if you did it on purpose just wishing the Wii fails hard.


Your predictions are not realistic at all, given how the Wii has started. To have happen what you predicted, there would have to be some crazy ass earth event, like war against Japan or something.

Nintendo blows up, Wii's start to explode in peoples homes, you name it. It would have to be just insane.

I would have to call you a nintendo hater. I see no other recourse.

 

[A Black Falcon]

Why do people think this will happen? Has there ever been a case where a system has sold incredibly well for a while and then just dropped off a cliff?

Genesis, 1994-1995?

I know, maybe not the best comparison, but that was a case where a console just collapsed because of poor decisionmaking from the company selling it...