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Are we going to see a repeat of the Ryzen attack in the GPU space?

supernova8

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Both Nvidia and AMD are releasing new GPUs in the next few months (Nvidia next month, AMD unconfirmed but presumably not long after). I purchased shares for both companies because I think both will grow long-term in their own ways so you can rest assured I'm not a 'fanboy' either way - just very interested to see how it pans out this coming Autumn.

AMD vs Intel

Look back to 2017 and the release of the first Ryzen CPUs. They were pretty good but still not good enough to beat Intel's offerings. Reviews were generally positive along the lines of "great but not quite there" and yet fast forward to 2020 and AMD has pretty much obliterated Intel's entire line of CPUs, including server CPUs. The only thing keeping Intel in the race is their massive production capacity but even that's at risk since they cannot seem to get to 7nm on their own, and may be held hostage by TSMC's capacity. We're seeing more and more OEMs putting Ryzen into their desktop and laptop offerings and Intel has nothing to counter with. In other words, it only took 3 years (from initial product) for AMD to completely turn the tables.

AMD vs NVIDIA

Turning our attention to the land of graphics cards, the story is a little different. While Intel can certainly be accused of complacency, and trying to squeeze as much profit out of the same node as possible, NVIDIA has taken a different approach. For the most part, NVIDIA has continued to iterate and innovate with their products (barring a few product name bait and switch fiascos), and while their products have become eye-wateringly expensive in recent years, on the whole they have provided big performance improvements over the years, regardless of what the competition puts out.

Up until now, AMD hasn’t really provided any real competition to NVIDIA but we’ve seen the first signs of it with RDNA1 (ie 5700 XT and the rest of the family). While not as powerful as NVIDIA’s top-end cards and having lingering driver issues, this has been the first time in a while that people could really justify picking Radeon over GeForce. Decent performance for a decent price - "great but not quite there".

What will happen in late 2020?


My personal expectation is that a lot of the lessons learned from building Ryzen into a wildly successful product line will transfer over to Radeon, and one should also not underestimate the fact that AMD is essentially getting help from two massive tech companies - Sony and Microsoft - in the process of designing both Ryzen and RDNA architectures. Nvidia is kinda on their own (cannot really count Nintendo since they will never use Nvidia's cutting-edge tech).

But it's a tough call. I have faith in both Jensen Huang (NVIDIA) and Lisa Su (AMD) to do what's necessary for their respective companies to succeed. NVIDIA is not like Intel in the sense that Intel has so many fingers in so many different pies, NVIDIA doesn't do x86 CPUs and therefore can focus its efforts more on graphics technology. AMD has to fight a war on two fronts - x86 CPU/APU battle with Intel and GPU battle with NVIDIA. I wonder if AMD has the ability to fight both (and fight successfully) at the same time.

Exciting, isn't it!
 
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LordOfChaos

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Nvidia is also not like Intel in that they can't massively shit the bed on their own in-house fab node and be stuck on it or an older process for years, since they're fabless.

There were some rumors that they were going with a lesser Samsung 8nm node vs TSMCs 7, and it would be pretty funny if their arrogance to go for a higher margin cost them the crown, but I'm not really sure where that ended up, I think there was also indication higher end parts would use TSMC N7.

So unlike Intel, Nvidia has market access to the best nodes just the same as AMD, meanwhile they're still competing with AMD's current 7nm GPUs just fine with their 12/14nm parts, which means their architecture advantage nullified a whole generations fabrication process advantage.

So tl;dr I'm not really seeing a Ryzen/Intel sitch.
 
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Chiggs

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Nvidia isn’t a complacent shithead company like Intel. Greedy and anti-consumer, yes. But not complacent.

I think AMD still gives gamers a reason to think twice this time around, though. If just for cost.
 
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howitis3

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NVIDIA shit the bed with the original 2080 and 2070. barely anydifferent than the 1080 line. it wasn't untill the super came out that there was something worth buying. lets see what they do this time.
 

Mister Wolf

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No. Nvidia is constantly one upping AMD. Whether its real time raytracing or A.I upscaling.
 

supernova8

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Nvidia is also not like Intel in that they can't massively shit the bed on their own in-house fab node and be stuck on it or an older process for years, since they're fabless.

There were some rumors that they were going with a lesser Samsung 8nm node vs TSMCs 7, and it would be pretty funny if their arrogance to go for a higher margin cost them the crown, but I'm not really sure where that ended up, I think there was also indication higher end parts would use TSMC N7.

So unlike Intel, Nvidia has market access to the best nodes just the same as AMD, meanwhile they're still competing with AMD's current 7nm GPUs just fine with their 12/14nm parts, which means their architecture advantage nullified a whole generations fabrication process advantage.

So tl;dr I'm not really seeing a Ryzen/Intel sitch.

Yeah on performance alone you're absolutely spot on. They already trash Radeon 7nm with their 12nm RTX parts and the DLSS technology is another weapon that can be used to (artificially, some may say) widen the gap. When it comes to price, however, I wonder what NVIDIA will be thinking. What are they going to do if AMD decides to sell RDNA2 at close to (or even under) cost to gain market share?

Going into the new console generation and some very beefy CPU (client and server) sales, perhaps they are able/willing to stomach that in order to put the shits up NVIDIA.
 
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Entroyp

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nvidia is no Intel. I will be surprised if The new AMD cards perform better than nvidia’s.
 

wordslaughter

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I expect AMD to do better than they have in years.... but that's still not saying much.

Nvidia will maintain the crown on the highest end GPUs and will have some killer features that AMD currently may not have any response to.

If AMD can pump out a GPU that can slightly beat a 3080 in rasterization performance, but still fall behind in raytracing performance - I see that as the best case for AMD this year.
 
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LordOfChaos

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Yeah on performance alone you're absolutely spot on. They already trash Radeon 7nm with their 12nm RTX parts and the DLSS technology is another weapon that can be used to (artificially, some may say) widen the gap. When it comes to price, however, I wonder what NVIDIA will be thinking. What are they going to do if AMD decides to sell RDNA2 at close to (or even under) cost to gain market share?

Going into the new console generation and some very beefy CPU (client and server) sales, perhaps they are able/willing to stomach that in order to put the shits up NVIDIA.

Razer margin products aren't a new idea for AMD and it just ends up pyrrhic, each department really needs to bring in money to sustain its own R&D, otherwise they end up on a treadmill going nowhere perpetually in second. iirc, Nvidia was dropping like 3 billion on each architecture compared to 1 for AMD, a few years ago.
 

supernova8

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nvidia is no Intel. I will be surprised if The new AMD cards perform better than nvidia’s.

I don't think AMD has to be outright better. If you look at CPUs, Intel is still technically better in gaming (although AMD dominates in pretty much everything else except Adobe software). What I'm envisaging is a situation where more than half of the tech Youtubers (they get a lot of views and a lot of people are buying gear on their recommendations) start to review RDNA2 and we have a new Ryzen 3600 on our hands. They all start hailing the, say, Radeon 6600XT (ie mid-range offering) as the new price/performance king.

If that happens, we'll start seeing the same thing happen all over again, with dozens of videos from very influential tech opinion leaders encouraging people to save a few dollars and go AMD.
 

wordslaughter

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I seriously doubt Nvidia will allow AMD to have a mid range champion that's meaningfully cheaper. Nvidia will have something that's very comparable and has extra features AMD lacks, and there will be a small premium for that. Nvidia will just adjust their pricing accordingly.

The only time Nvidia goes wild with pricing is on performance tiers where AMD simply offers no competition.
 

JonnyMP3

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If AMD keep with their 'Bang for your buck' identity then they'll be ok this gen still. It's still that top end Nvidia performance and power vs AMD's balance of price, efficiency and lower wattage draw battle. But being the main supplier in the console sphere helps with game developers being more familiar with your tech, like they have with AMD this gen.
 

longdi

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The only worry for Nvidia Ampere is that it gets too large because of the tensor and RT cores.

Otherwise, AMD dont have a chance
 
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diffusionx

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From AMD? I'll believe it when I see it. The trend for them has to been to overhype and underdeliver with cards that are somehow slower and more power hungry than Nvidia, while knocking a few bucks off the price to make it viable to some. .

The wildcard is Intel, they're sinking big bucks into GPU research and making progress. I doubt they'll be able to match up to a x080TI immediately but as time goes on?
 

supernova8

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Interesting. From benchmarks I've seen the 5700XT is very competitive at 1080p when you get into 4K territory it even struggles to keep up with the 2070 Super.

Having said that, (in my neck of the woods) the 2070 Super is $100-$200 more expensive than the 5700XT, 2080 Super is almost double the price and 2080 Ti... let's not go there.

Anyone playing at 1080p is fine with a 5700XT.. get the feeling AMD's marketing for the current line of GPUs has been pretty weak compared to NVIDIA - intentional? Maybe this initial RDNA lineup was just a test run for the real deal.
 
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supernova8

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From AMD? I'll believe it when I see it. The trend for them has to been to overhype and underdeliver with cards that are somehow slower and more power hungry than Nvidia, while knocking a few bucks off the price to make it viable to some. .

Don't forget that Raja Koduri was the one leading Radeon inside AMD when we saw the meh-fest of Vega. Currently Lisa Su herself is running Radeon Technologies Group in the interim until further notice, and we've already seen what AMD can achieve under her leadership. I know this is starting to sound like a love letter to Lisa Su (ha), I am really impressed with how she's managed to steer the firm in a better direction.
 
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Chiggs

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Don't forget that Raja Koduri was the one leading Radeon inside AMD when we saw the meh-fest of Vega. Currently Lisa Su herself is running Radeon Technologies Group in the interim until further notice, and we've already seen what AMD can achieve under her leadership. I know this is starting to sound like a love letter to Lisa Su (ha), I am really impressed with how she's managed to steer the firm in a better direction.

Same. I also made a ton of money from buying and selling AMD penny stock. Yay, Lisa!
 
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diffusionx

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Don't forget that Raja Koduri was the one leading Radeon inside AMD when we saw the meh-fest of Vega. Currently Lisa Su herself is running Radeon Technologies Group in the interim until further notice, and we've already seen what AMD can achieve under her leadership. I know this is starting to sound like a love letter to Lisa Su (ha), I am really impressed with how she's managed to steer the firm in a better direction.
Yea, and Koduri is now at Intel. But I don't like to put too much on just the person on the top.

I have wanted AMD to step in and really compete for years. The fact that they haven't is why we have $1000+ GPUs right now. But they just have not gotten it done and so far the rumors about their next round of cards are not encouraging - as usual, it won't compete with Nvidia's top end, etc.
 

supernova8

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Same. I also made a ton of money from buying and selling AMD penny stock. Yay, Lisa!

Aha niice, yeah I jumped in at about $60 so I'm still up but definitely wish I'd gone in back in March when shares were going for $30ish.
 

supernova8

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I have wanted AMD to step in and really compete for years. The fact that they haven't is why we have $1000+ GPUs right now.

Yeah probably also partly explains why NVIDIA's operating profit margin is close to 33% and AMD's 9%. Just think how much crazy margin there is on those higher end cards. On the bright side, such a massive markup means there's room for price cuts if/when NVIDIA feels the heat.
 

Allandor

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I don't think so. They barely compete with the better manufacturing process, and Nvidia is now going unm all the way. Also AMD had to design the console APUs so they really aren't that big for all those designs.
 

vaibhavpisal

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AMD never lagged behind in graphics cards like it did with processors.

It desperately needs to put together a driver team to gain parity with Nvidia. Outside of that, not much to improve.

It needs a DLSS competitor? I wouldn't use one unless I had a mismatch in graphics card and my display resolution.
 

Soodanim

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If AMD sorted their driver situation and got up to speed I would happily try their GPUs in the future, but I would be a late adopter. NVidia have a good thing going, but the prices aren't so great. It's why I went 970 to 1660ti. No high end for me at those prices.
 

ZywyPL

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Not a chance, AMD had technically more powerful cards for years, and it was all for nothing, they made a nice jump with RDNA1, but still, that's a 7nm GPUs cathing up to 4yo 14nm GPUs, so not really an accomplishment. And now the process nods will be even, so there's absolutely no advantage AMD could have against NV. They will take a fight in the low/mid-end as usual, while the top-end will be filled wit NV cards.



That's 1080p which is heavily CPU dependant, put the game in 4K and there's 40-50% FPS difference, the 5700XT doesn't even reach 60 to begin with, so there's A LOT to catch up from the AMD side, and that's just the rasterisation, we have yet to see how they handle RT, or if there will be any AI upscaling implemented at all. So that's a huge "maybe".