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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

Vestal

Gold Member
Drawing a line from the 2nd point to the 3rd point, it looks like the eye may just miss Kendall. I really hope it keeps shifting eastward.

Those dots do not represent were it is expected to be. Expect the center of the storm to be anywhere within the cone, even then that could possibly change.

As always be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.


Side note from Puerto Rico.. Reading 1.1 Million homes without power.
 

Mindlog

Member
Those dots do not represent were it is expected to be. Expect the center of the storm to be anywhere within the cone, even then that could possibly change.

As always be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.


Side note from Puerto Rico.. Reading 1.1 Million homes without power.
Hope cells are up for most or restored quickly. Those towers are going to be very busy tomorrow if possible.
 

Vestal

Gold Member
Hope cells are up for most or restored quickly. Those towers are going to be very busy tomorrow if possible.

I was able to speak with my mom earlier and she lives in Guaynabo. Haven't been able to reach my dad though he stayed in his building(14th floor yeah I KNOW IDIOT! and right next to the beach YEAH BIGGER IDIOT!) but he has done it before, and spoke with my sis.

Cel service has just been spotty. From hearing reporting on endi.com they had issues reaching their reporters so there must be some damage to cell towers or simply don't have power.
 
NC now in the cone as of 11PM, so the cone did move a bit more east since 5PM. :(

030119_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
That uncertainty cone is insane.

Probably should give NOAA some more money to work with, huh
 

Blizzard

Banned
Just as was reported in Barbuda, 95% of St. Martin is gone. Still haven't heard much about Anguilla or St. Thomas.

If you're in this thing's path, get out.
About that last sentence...look at the cone. Literally anywhere in the state of Florida besides a tiny bit of the panhandle COULD be in the direct path.

Literally over half the state of Georgia COULD be in the direct path.

Now imagine how many people live in those two areas combined, and how quickly they can leave their jobs and travel on a 3-lane highway in gridlock traffic hundreds of miles without gas around.
 

MrNelson

Banned
About that last sentence...look at the cone. Literally anywhere in the state of Florida besides a tiny bit of the panhandle COULD be in the direct path.

Literally over half the state of Georgia COULD be in the direct path.

Now imagine how many people live in those two areas combined, and how quickly they can leave their jobs and travel on a 3-lane highway in gridlock traffic hundreds of miles without gas around.
I actually wonder if at some point they'll close the south bound lanes temporarily and have everyone travel north on both sides of the interstates.
What's irma wind speed now?
Still 185 mph
 
Fuck man. I'm really hoping this thing loses some strength going over Cuba.

It's not projected to go over Cuba, or any other major landmass other than the Bahamas, until it makes landfall in the US.

This thing is going to be strong as hell, and remain that way, until it hits the US.
 
It's not slowing down
Current Wind Speed 161 knots / 185 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 160 knots / 185 MPH at Thursday, 07 Sep 2017 4:00 AM

If it weren't for the destruction it has and will cause it really is an impressive storm. It's made landfall, and has sustained itself at this level for so long.
 

Griss

Member
Okay I'm freaking out. Not for me, but for others. Sorry to Livejournal you all here but it's 1.20am and I have no one to talk to so you're all I've got.

The government just pushed out an advisory saying we're looking at a potential eyewall hit and a storm surge of 20 feet. I had missed the 11pm NHC advisory but it's looking very possible now. The message says that anyone on an elevation of below 20 feet is being advised to leave. We are a flat limestone island - not your typical caribbean island with hills and mountains. That's 30% of our land, pretty much, maybe more. What's more, the tropical storm winds were due to arrive at 2pm and the hurricane at 8pm. Now they're saying maybe 11am and 5pm. The morning we all thought we had to get in place is gone. It's coming at us faster than we imagined.

So here's the situation. Because this is holiday season, all four of the bosses of my company are abroad. They didn't evacuate, this just happened while they were all away. So we have no one senior left on island. There is no one to coordinate, no one to control this.

We have 22 staff here (I may be 1 off, but say 22). Let's look at facts: I know for a fact that many live in Blue Hills and the Bight - both of which are at sea level and prone to flooding during normal rain. I know for a fact that the islands that have taken eyewall hits from this storm, Irma, have suffered between 80% and 90% destruction of buildings. I also know that we're a much younger island with better building codes, but this is something I can't rely on on a per-building basis. I know for a fact that my best friend in the office, a mother of three small children, said that she lives on the beach in Blue Hills and was extremely concerned if the eye was to come within 30 miles of us that her house would be destroyed and they could be badly harmed or worse. It's gonna be a lot closer than that.

This is what I know. What I'm lying here thinking about is what I do about it. Everyone seems to think we just bunker up and that's it, the chips fall where they may, but I can't accept that. There is still a bit of time. What are the options? If I wanted to help these people - my friends and colleagues - how could I go about it?

I reckon I have the following options open to me in a tiny, tiny window tomorrow morning:
-Call every one of the staff. Explain the situation. Get them to explain where they live, what the building is made of, what elevation it is, how far from the sea it is and whether it's two floors or not.
-Decide whether they need to be evacuated and tell them so.
-See what they say - I imagine most of the older island women will be stubborn about this, or may say that there's no time.
-But WHERE do I tell them to go?

Options here:
-Go to hurricane shelter - I have no idea what the standard of these shelters is and they may already be full
-Evacuate to our office - there's no water but they could bring some. Our office is a good building. I'm leaning towards evacuating the entire staff to our office tomorrow. I'm just another employee but someone needs to do something and this would be something.
-Break into a hotel, steal a bunch of keys and use the vacant rooms. The damage would be hidden by the hurricane, and I can't think of a jury in the entire world that would convict me of this crime. This is a very strong option, I feel, though it feels bizarre to be in a situation where for the first time in my life I may have to blatantly break the law. This will require calling contacts at hotels, asking when their last security check is, if anyone is on the premises during the storm and so on and so forth. I have a hammer to try and break into a reception area if needs be. A friend has a drill.

Having thought through it I've settled down a bit. I have to do one of these things tomorrow imo. But I don't know if I actually will... I just don't know. Is there time? Will people even want to go?

I'm going to stay up for the 2am advisory and hope it brings better news. I need sleep but I'm joking myself if I think I'm going to get any.
 
Okay I'm freaking out. Not for me, but for others. Sorry to Livejournal you all here but it's 1.20am and I have no one to talk to so you're all I've got.

The government just pushed out an advisory saying we're looking at a potential eyewall hit and a storm surge of 20 feet. I had missed the 11pm NHC advisory but it's looking very possible now. The message says that anyone on an elevation of below 20 feet is being advised to leave. What's more, the tropical storm winds were due to arrive at 2pm and the hurricane at 8pm. Now they're saying maybe 11am and 5pm. The morning we all thought we had to get in place is gone. It's coming at us faster than we imagined.

So here's the situation. Because this is holiday season, all four of the bosses of my company are abroad. They didn't evacuate, this just happened while they were all away. So we have no one senior left on island. There is no one to coordinate, no one to control this.

We have 22 staff here (I may be 1 off, but say 22). Let's look at facts: I know for a fact that many live in Blue Hills and the Bight - both of which are at sea level and prone to flooding during normal rain. I know for a fact that the islands that have taken eyewall hits from this storm, Irma, have suffered between 80% and 90% destruction of buildings. I also know that we're a much younger island with better building codes, but this is something I can't rely on on a per-building basis. I know for a fact that my best friend in the office, a mother of three small children, said that she lives on the beach in Blue Hills and was extremely concerned if the eye was to come within 30 miles of us that her house would be destroyed and they could be badly harmed or worse. It's gonna be a lot closer than that.

This is what I know. What I'm lying here thinking about is what I do about it. Everyone seems to think we just bunker up and that's it, the chips fall where they may, but I can't accept that. There is still a bit of time. What are the options? If I wanted to help these people - my friends and colleagues - how could I go about it?

I reckon I have the following options open to me in a tiny, tiny window tomorrow morning:
-Call every one of the staff. Explain the situation. Get them to explain where they live, what the building is made of, what elevation it is, how far from the sea it is and whether it's two floors or not.
-Decide whether they need to be evacuated and tell them so.
-See what they say - I imagine most of the older island women will be stubborn about this, or may say that there's no time.
-But WHERE do I tell them to go?

Options here:
-Go to hurricane shelter - I have no idea what the standard of these shelters is and they may already be full
-Evacuate to our office - there's no water but they could bring some. Our office is a good building. I'm leaning towards evacuating the entire staff to our office tomorrow. I'm just another employee but someone needs to do something and this would be something.
-Break into a hotel, steal a bunch of keys and use the vacant rooms. The damage would be hidden by the hurricane, and I can't think of a jury in the entire world that would convict me of this crime. This is a very strong option, I feel, though it feels bizarre to be in a situation where for the first time in my life I may have to blatantly break the law. This will require calling contacts at hotels, asking when their last security check is, if anyone is on the premises during the storm and so on and so forth. I have a hammer to try and break into a reception area if needs be. A friend has a drill.

Having thought through it I've settled down a bit. I have to do one of these things tomorrow imo. But I don't know if I actually will... I just don't know. Is there time? Will people even want to go?

I'm going to stay up for the 2am advisory and hope it brings better news. I need sleep but I'm joking myself if I think I'm going to get any.

If your office is a sturdy building I'd try to evacuate as many people there as possible. People can bring water and food with them if the office has no water. Having seen pictures floating around the net, hotels are not very safe from this storm.
 

Blizzard

Banned
I'll second the office suggestion if it's sturdy, has good building codes, strong windows etc. Hotels are a gamble.

It has the side benefit of not getting you in legal trouble later, even if it was morally justifiable.
 
Okay I'm freaking out. Not for me, but for others. Sorry to Livejournal you all here but it's 1.20am and I have no one to talk to so you're all I've got.

The government just pushed out an advisory saying we're looking at a potential eyewall hit and a storm surge of 20 feet. I had missed the 11pm NHC advisory but it's looking very possible now. The message says that anyone on an elevation of below 20 feet is being advised to leave. What's more, the tropical storm winds were due to arrive at 2pm and the hurricane at 8pm. Now they're saying maybe 11am and 5pm. The morning we all thought we had to get in place is gone. It's coming at us faster than we imagined.

So here's the situation. Because this is holiday season, all four of the bosses of my company are abroad. They didn't evacuate, this just happened while they were all away. So we have no one senior left on island. There is no one to coordinate, no one to control this.

We have 22 staff here (I may be 1 off, but say 22). Let's look at facts: I know for a fact that many live in Blue Hills and the Bight - both of which are at sea level and prone to flooding during normal rain. I know for a fact that the islands that have taken eyewall hits from this storm, Irma, have suffered between 80% and 90% destruction of buildings. I also know that we're a much younger island with better building codes, but this is something I can't rely on on a per-building basis. I know for a fact that my best friend in the office, a mother of three small children, said that she lives on the beach in Blue Hills and was extremely concerned if the eye was to come within 30 miles of us that her house would be destroyed and they could be badly harmed or worse. It's gonna be a lot closer than that.

This is what I know. What I'm lying here thinking about is what I do about it. Everyone seems to think we just bunker up and that's it, the chips fall where they may, but I can't accept that. There is still a bit of time. What are the options? If I wanted to help these people - my friends and colleagues - how could I go about it?

I reckon I have the following options open to me in a tiny, tiny window tomorrow morning:
-Call every one of the staff. Explain the situation. Get them to explain where they live, what the building is made of, what elevation it is, how far from the sea it is and whether it's two floors or not.
-Decide whether they need to be evacuated and tell them so.
-See what they say - I imagine most of the older island women will be stubborn about this, or may say that there's no time.
-But WHERE do I tell them to go?

Options here:
-Go to hurricane shelter - I have no idea what the standard of these shelters is and they may already be full
-Evacuate to our office - there's no water but they could bring some. Our office is a good building. I'm leaning towards evacuating the entire staff to our office tomorrow. I'm just another employee but someone needs to do something and this would be something.
-Break into a hotel, steal a bunch of keys and use the vacant rooms. The damage would be hidden by the hurricane, and I can't think of a jury in the entire world that would convict me of this crime. This is a very strong option, I feel, though it feels bizarre to be in a situation where for the first time in my life I may have to blatantly break the law. This will require calling contacts at hotels, asking when their last security check is, if anyone is on the premises during the storm and so on and so forth. I have a hammer to try and break into a reception area if needs be. A friend has a drill.

Having thought through it I've settled down a bit. I have to do one of these things tomorrow imo. But I don't know if I actually will... I just don't know. Is there time? Will people even want to go?

I'm going to stay up for the 2am advisory and hope it brings better news. I need sleep but I'm joking myself if I think I'm going to get any.

Do what you can, Griss.

Get whoever you can above that 20ft line in the strongest structure you can.

I'm not one to advocate for crime, but that last option seems to be the best option. Much higher possibility of a hotel structure to survive, at least, enough of it anyway, an eyewall hit. Standard houses will not survive an eyewall hit. They just won't.
 

Griss

Member
If your office is a sturdy building I'd try to evacuate as many people there as possible. People can bring water and food with them if the office has no water. Having seen pictures floating around the net, hotels are not very safe from this storm.

I'll second the office suggestion if it's sturdy, has good building codes, strong windows etc. Hotels are a gamble.

It has the side benefit of not getting you in legal trouble later, even if it was morally justifiable.

In this case the hotels are the best built buildings on the island that are built to higher than hurricane-specification or they cannot be insured. This is why they absolutely have to be the best buildings, and this is why I'm staying at one.

That's the reason I'm considering that over the office, that and the fact that there would be beds and this will be an overnight storm.

EDIT: I'm also coming to the realisation that there's a strong chance my house will be destroyed and my job basically destroyed. There's still time for the eye to move, though... any little wobble in the next 12 hours or so could mean the difference between catastrophe and relative safety...
 

Blizzard

Banned
In this case the hotels are the best built buildings on the island that are built to higher than hurricane-specification or they cannot be insured. This is why they absolutely have to be the best buildings, and this is why I'm staying at one.

That's the reason I'm considering that over the office, that and the fact that there would be beds and this will be an overnight storm.

EDIT: I'm also coming to the realisation that there's a strong chance my house will be destroyed and my job basically destroyed. There's still time for the eye to move, though... any little wobble in the next 12 hours or so could mean the difference between catastrophe and relative safety...
I see, I didn't know the hotels have higher standards than the office. Best of luck then.
 

vonStirlitz

Unconfirmed Member
Okay I'm freaking out. Not for me, but for others. Sorry to Livejournal you all here but it's 1.20am and I have no one to talk to so you're all I've got.

The government just pushed out an advisory saying we're looking at a potential eyewall hit and a storm surge of 20 feet. I had missed the 11pm NHC advisory but it's looking very possible now. The message says that anyone on an elevation of below 20 feet is being advised to leave. We are a flat limestone island - not your typical caribbean island with hills and mountains. That's 30% of our land, pretty much, maybe more. What's more, the tropical storm winds were due to arrive at 2pm and the hurricane at 8pm. Now they're saying maybe 11am and 5pm. The morning we all thought we had to get in place is gone. It's coming at us faster than we imagined.

So here's the situation. Because this is holiday season, all four of the bosses of my company are abroad. They didn't evacuate, this just happened while they were all away. So we have no one senior left on island. There is no one to coordinate, no one to control this.

We have 22 staff here (I may be 1 off, but say 22). Let's look at facts: I know for a fact that many live in Blue Hills and the Bight - both of which are at sea level and prone to flooding during normal rain. I know for a fact that the islands that have taken eyewall hits from this storm, Irma, have suffered between 80% and 90% destruction of buildings. I also know that we're a much younger island with better building codes, but this is something I can't rely on on a per-building basis. I know for a fact that my best friend in the office, a mother of three small children, said that she lives on the beach in Blue Hills and was extremely concerned if the eye was to come within 30 miles of us that her house would be destroyed and they could be badly harmed or worse. It's gonna be a lot closer than that.

This is what I know. What I'm lying here thinking about is what I do about it. Everyone seems to think we just bunker up and that's it, the chips fall where they may, but I can't accept that. There is still a bit of time. What are the options? If I wanted to help these people - my friends and colleagues - how could I go about it?

I reckon I have the following options open to me in a tiny, tiny window tomorrow morning:
-Call every one of the staff. Explain the situation. Get them to explain where they live, what the building is made of, what elevation it is, how far from the sea it is and whether it's two floors or not.
-Decide whether they need to be evacuated and tell them so.
-See what they say - I imagine most of the older island women will be stubborn about this, or may say that there's no time.
-But WHERE do I tell them to go?

Options here:
-Go to hurricane shelter - I have no idea what the standard of these shelters is and they may already be full
-Evacuate to our office - there's no water but they could bring some. Our office is a good building. I'm leaning towards evacuating the entire staff to our office tomorrow. I'm just another employee but someone needs to do something and this would be something.
-Break into a hotel, steal a bunch of keys and use the vacant rooms. The damage would be hidden by the hurricane, and I can't think of a jury in the entire world that would convict me of this crime. This is a very strong option, I feel, though it feels bizarre to be in a situation where for the first time in my life I may have to blatantly break the law. This will require calling contacts at hotels, asking when their last security check is, if anyone is on the premises during the storm and so on and so forth. I have a hammer to try and break into a reception area if needs be. A friend has a drill.

Having thought through it I've settled down a bit. I have to do one of these things tomorrow imo. But I don't know if I actually will... I just don't know. Is there time? Will people even want to go?

I'm going to stay up for the 2am advisory and hope it brings better news. I need sleep but I'm joking myself if I think I'm going to get any.
It is a unique situation, so you can't follow the normal rules here. But you don't have long to think, so the best thing is to act.

You basically need two things - wind protection and safety from the sea surge. Going on from what seems to have happened in the BVI, the wind took off the roofs of most homes, but office blocks fared better - particularly multilevel concrete buildings - as more roof protection. But think about hurricane shutters - if windows arent protected, you dont want to be in an area with a lot of office equipment that might fly about. If the island is flat, I would seriously consider moving if possible.

Avoid low lying areas. The surge is real and will come in far.

Take care. Don't panic. Just think cooly and carefully, stock up with food and water and charge everything.
 

Griss

Member
It is a unique situation, so you can't follow the normal rules here. But you don't have long to think, so the best thing is to act.

You basically need two things - wind protection and safety from the sea surge. Going on from what seems to have happened in the BVI, the wind took off the roofs of most homes, but office blocks fared better - particularly multilevel concrete buildings - as more roof protection. But think about hurricane shutters - if windows arent protected, you dont want to be in an area with a lot of office equipment that might fly about. If the island is flat, I would seriously consider moving if possible.

Avoid low lying areas. The surge is real and will come in far.

Take care. Don't panic. Just think cooly and carefully, stock up with food and water and charge everything.

The office windows are hurricane shuttered to the highest standard. The office is the second floor of a study two-story office block, as you said these are the types that survive. The worry would be the roof, but that's miles better than the roofs where the staff will be living.

Please god (that I don't believe in lol) let the 2am news be good.

EDIT: I'll feel really silly if this isn't a big deal tomorrow but right now it's looking like a really big deal. If something were to happen and I was there thinking "I should have done something and KNEW I should have done something..." Yeah, can't have that.
 

vonStirlitz

Unconfirmed Member
The office windows are hurricane shuttered to the highest standard. The office is the second floor of a study office block, as you said these are the types that survive. The worry would be the roof, but that's miles better than where the staff will be living.

Please god (that I don't believe in lol) let the 2am news be good.

You are a good man to think about the staff. In the other islands, the guys who got hit the worst are those with the least protected houses. Maybe, first thing tomorrow, have a meeting with them and suggest it. Many might want to stay with families, but some might appreciate the offer.

There is also the psychology of it. I have only lived through a Cat 1, but that is scary. If you are in together as a group, it might make it easier to get through the storm, and also help each other out.

Good luck.
 

Griss

Member
Looking at the 2pm update and how close it's getting to us, one fact becomes extremely important... What is the radius of Irma's eye? Does anyone know?

According to NHC it's down to 180.

(Taking any positive news at this point)

All positives are good positives right now. It has another 16 hours to weaken before the rough stuff hits us.
 
Lowered to 180 at the 2am mid-advisory. The fastest winds they found was below that and 4 hours ago, and the pressure is slowly going up. I could see a little weaker next advisory. This is still cat5 territory, mind you, but literally any improvement is welcomed. No immediate signs to suggest a rapid weakening, unfortunately. Hispaniola should mess it up more than Puerto Rico has.
 

Euphor!a

Banned
Lowered to 180 at the 2am mid-advisory. The fastest winds they found was below that and 4 hours ago, and the pressure is slowly going up. I could see a little weaker next advisory. This is still cat5 territory, mind you, but literally any improvement is welcomed. No immediate signs to suggest a rapid weakening, unfortunately. Hispaniola should mess it up more than Puerto Rico has.

Unless I misunderstood, I believe it is expected to build up again once it breaks north over the warm water.
 
Unless I misunderstood, I believe it is expected to build up again once it breaks north over the warm water.
Weaken -a little-, I'll clarify. Frankly it violates all past meteorological standards that it's stayed this intense for such a long time already so no one is entirely sure what's going to happen. There's zero reason to think it wouldn't be category 4 or 5 the next 3+ days though, sorry. The hyper warm water you could say is offsetting would should be more weakening for being near or over land.
 

MaulerX

Member
Lowered to 180 at the 2am mid-advisory. The fastest winds they found was below that and 4 hours ago, and the pressure is slowly going up. I could see a little weaker next advisory. This is still cat5 territory, mind you, but literally any improvement is welcomed. No immediate signs to suggest a rapid weakening, unfortunately. Hispaniola should mess it up more than Puerto Rico has.


It's barely going to touch Hispaniola though. Any further weakening probably won't be from that.

Edit: Enough of It's outer shell hitting it will probably weaken it a bit more. It's just that the eye has managed to stay over water and that's what's scary for Florida.
 

NateDrake

Member
Weaken -a little-, I'll clarify. Frankly it violates all past meteorological standards that it's stayed this intense for such a long time already so no one is entirely sure what's going to happen. There's zero reason to think it wouldn't be category 4 or 5 the next 3+ days though, sorry. The hyper warm water you could say is offsetting would should be more weakening for being near or over land.

PR didn't really have an impact on the storm or its strength. The system was at 185mph for 33hrs - an unheard of amount of time. The system couldn't maintain that type of strength for much longer, and it had to drop. The question now is whether or not it'll see an increase in strength as it sits over warm water.

At the end of the day it doesn't much matter - be it 180 or 185 - the devastation it will cause will still be immense.
 
Not trying to downplay any horrible effects here, sorry. This is and will stay inconceivably intense. I choose to believe that part of the core will get dragged over the northern mountains of the Dominican Republic, dammit! Let me hope, please.

Of course there's the chance that with a full replacement cycle over the next day it might expand the wind field instead of bring the max winds up again! Yeah I hate this thing. We're screwed in some capacity regardless of what it does. Even if it stays off Florida the storm surge around Miami will be terrible coming up from the south.
 
The office windows are hurricane shuttered to the highest standard. The office is the second floor of a study two-story office block, as you said these are the types that survive. The worry would be the roof, but that's miles better than the roofs where the staff will be living.

Please god (that I don't believe in lol) let the 2am news be good.

EDIT: I'll feel really silly if this isn't a big deal tomorrow but right now it's looking like a really big deal. If something were to happen and I was there thinking "I should have done something and KNEW I should have done something..." Yeah, can't have that.

You need to be in the center of the sturdiest, well built structure you can find. Both the official NHC track and the latest Euro put you in risk of being hit by the strongest quadrant. The official forecast for that time is 175mph sustained winds with gusts of 215 mph. I would not trust any hurricane shutters with projectiles moving at over 200 mph possibly hitting it. Stay well away from the windows and prepare for the possibility of severe roof damage.
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
NW PR 4am Update : She's still blowing like she was 12 hours ago! Hell, even stronger. Crazy ride so far, thankfully the winds weren't too strong in this part of the island. I've had my fill of hurricane season this year, as much as I like it. Godspeed Florida, this thing is a beast.
 
Irma is a bit weaker now (though still one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic ever recorded) but with the warmest waters still ahead south of Florida I would not be surprised if it got stronger again before landfall.

Latest track :

090851_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
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