God fucking dammit. I swear if that thing comes this way (nola) I'm going to flip my shit.
Thankfully no one seems too keen on making the storm anything other than a low-end hurricane/tropical storm with the exception of HMON which has it at around 959 MB on hitting the US mainland. This would likely be a mid-range category 2.
It's one to watch though as storms forming in that area can bomb very quickly. There's plenty of hot water for it.
All, this storm is sitting around 90% chance to become a storm soon and will have 3+ days over the gulf before it hits. Due to surface temps and low sheer, when this thing forms and if it does miss a Yucatan hit, "Nate" may bomb out like Harvey did intensity wise.
Over the next 48 hours, I would recommend watching the NHC tracks on this development.
Do not rely on intensity models until a core is formed; they are inaccurate at this stage. Plus with the La Nina effect going on, expect a much higher probability of it being stronger than weaker than forecast (see Harvey). La Nina is not factored very well into models...
That is pretty much exactly where the current Euro model (today 0z) puts it as well:Interesting. NHC has landfall east of all of those points. NHC is showing landfall near Tallahassee Florida
000
WTNT31 KNHC 041438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the
Honduras border.
The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the
border with Nicaragua.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across
portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches
possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible.
Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
This is gulf season part two. Part one was in June. The good news for the Texas coast line is most storms that form in the latter half of gulf season tend to get pushed East due to continuous fall fronts that push throughGulf Season has begun?
The current Euro model has put SIXTEEN's path decidedly further west. Here are the ensemble storm tracks:
Going right through Mississippi. Lovely...
What are the water temperatures like in The Gulf?
The NHC seems very confident with that narrow cone too. Stay safe guys!
They uh...they fixed those levees right?
Wow that cone is TIGHT. Never seen that.
Mayor Mitch Landrieu declared a state of emergency Thursday (Oct. 5) in advance of Tropical Storm, which is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by the time it impacts the Gulf Coast.
"To the citizens of New Orleans, there is no reason to panic, but there is reason to prepare," Landrieu said.
...TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...
Tropical Storm Nate, currently just east of the Yucatan
penninsula of Mexico, is expected to track north-northwest across
the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, making landfall somewhere
along the central Gulf Coast Saturday night.
The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has Nate
turning northeast across Alabama, approaching northwest Georgia by
Sunday afternoon. Based on this current forecast track, the
probability of seeing tropical storm-force wind gusts, greater
than 40 MPH, is increasing across portions of central and north
Georgia throughout Sunday. Several hours of winds of this
magnitude would be capable of bringing down trees and powerlines.
In addition to the wind, periods of heavy rain could produce 2 to
6 inches of rainfall which may result in localized flash flooding,
especially across urban and poor drainage areas. A few tornadoes
are also possible within any of the more organized rain bands that
are associated with Nate.
As forecast confidence increases overnight tonight into Saturday,
Tropical Storm Watches may be issued for portions of central and
north Georgia.
This is an evolving and challenging forecast. Please stay tuned
to the latest forecasts and information from the National
Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service in Peachtree
City.
Hurricane Nate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1030 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017
...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just penetrated the
center of Nate and reported hurricane-force winds. The maximum
winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.