pieatorium
Member
The majority of those strong IP's were on the GC and sold millions yet the gamecube sold gamecube levels.
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Avalanche (Just Cause) - Wii U dev kits collecting dust, Nintendo is hard to reach
- Thread starter Flightmare
- Start date
The majority of those strong IP's were on the GC and sold millions yet the gamecube sold gamecube levels.
fabricated backlash
Member
I am doubtfull it will sell GC levels. I also expect it to be the shortest Nintendo console cycle. 5 years max.
I´m expecting a lifecycle somewhere between 4-5 years and i don´t see any reason to believe hat Nintendos IPs are much stronger than they were 10 years ago.
The Wii inflated the numbers of a few franchises like NSMB an Mario Kart because they also have a decent amount of casual appeal, but most of the Nintendo franchises didn´t fair nearly as good as one would expect with 5 times the userbase.
How does the sour milk taste?
HollovVpo1nt
Banned
Nintendo should have profited from launching a year before nextbox and ps4. They didn't.
No, not really. Nintendo clearly ecpected much much higher sales and a success close to the Wii as their forecast showed and it´s already ccompletely obvious that this platform will never even come close to the kind of success Nintendo imagined.
Not in the west.
The exchange rate has changed so much in the last 6 months that they could reduce the Wii U price by 20% + in the US/Europe...and be making as much in Yen as they were at launch.
Cutting the Wii U premium to $279 would earn them as much in Yen as the $349 Premium did at launch.
They can give a healthy cut with no effect to their profit margin (provided the yen doesn't strengthen).
Thunder Monkey
Banned
AOC don't be like that.
There's very little chance WiiU actually sells less than or equal to the GCN. You're talking about their most expensive system by a long shot. The popular version being $100 more than their last most expensive system. I'd wager with even only five years the system will sell at the minimum of the N64's total and at the maximum of the NES total.
Price reduction and software will help the system. No chance in hell of it being the market leader though... unless both the PS4 and Infinity bomb too.
There's very little chance WiiU actually sells less than or equal to the GCN. You're talking about their most expensive system by a long shot. The popular version being $100 more than their last most expensive system. I'd wager with even only five years the system will sell at the minimum of the N64's total and at the maximum of the NES total.
Price reduction and software will help the system. No chance in hell of it being the market leader though... unless both the PS4 and Infinity bomb too.
We'll see. The GameCube had the benefit of a $99-$199 price and third party support. You could forgive the system's shortcomings because it was so damn cheap.
I don't know if the BOM of the Wii U will let them reach that sort of impulse pricing.
Gamecube had a lot of their IPs do slightly controversial things that a lot of people didn't ask for, such as a cell-shaded, kiddy toon Zelda, a first-person Metroid (which people eventually got accustomed to admittedly) and Mario with a waterpump. But as for the IP effect going into the Wii? I'm pretty sure it's been mentioned somewhere around here that Super Mario Galaxy significantly boosted Wii sales at a point when they were going through a bit of a decline.
Nintendo IPs also saved 3DS from it's six months of oblivion and made it push some damn good numbers afterwards. Of course you're free to dispute that and say that it doesn't count because it's a portable, but to deny that Nintendo franchise don't have an effect is rather silly. I can agree that there may be a concern of "how much", but saying that big franchises such as Mario 3D, Kart and Smash will only pan the numbers out so they do Gamecube numbers for the rest of it's lifetime when the console as of currently is only doing slightly below that is quite the bold claim.
metalslimer
Member
Really now. Is the 3DS versions of their IPs during much better than Gamecube counterparts some kind of magical feat? And please don't play the handheld is different card here because _____ here. As long as Wii U is on the market for 5 years without a successor it will outsell the Gamecube. Whether it does much more than that is the big question. Looking at the situation now, going more than 10 million above the Gamecube is not very likely in the complete absence of 3rd party support.
pieatorium
Member
They are doing less than their DS counterparts though no? and handheld is different.
metalslimer
Member
As of now besides NSMB, no. Obviously the strength of an IP on handheld does not directly transfer to console and vice versa, but you would be crazy to think that there was absolutely no growth at all IP. Hellif Nintendo had went from the Gamecube straight to Wii U and launched something like Nintendoland it probably would have flopped to high heaven. The thing about Wii U is that it's looking like it will have worse 3rd party support than even the Gamecube got, so whatever growth they did have will be negated by that. Also the price is a good point to bring up. With the being dead weight on the Wii U's production cost it will be a long time if ever for Wii U to go to 150 or 99 dollars.
DragonSworne
Banned
What does selling well have anything to do with Nintendo getting support?
The Wii has already shown us that no matter how many systems they sell, third parties will not support Nintendo. It's not a vendetta, it's not a conspiracy, it's everything to do with how Nintendo maintains, views, and treats third parties.
Sony and MS will always get better support from third parties because third parties simple get better information more timely and detailed and get better treatment from Sony and MS.
During Wii, Nintendo just let third parties hang out to dry, Nintendo didn't teach them how to use the wiimote, Nintnedo didn't provide nice tools to develop on the Wii, and Nintendo didn't give two shits if you release fitness dance sing club extreme versus the next final fantasy saga. To them, third parties were of little consequence.
For Christ shake, third parties had to rely on third party tools to develop for Wii because Nintendo provided crap API support for the wiimote out of the box.
Why would anyone think things have suddenly changed? Nintendo couldn't provide updated tools and devkits to developer in a time fashion pre-launch, let alone detailed documentation. Have you guys stopped to wonder why Nintendo is provionf origin out of the box? Because they don't anything else inhouse to offer. It's a damn joke.
Until Nintendo starts really caring in thiddepartment, it won't matter if they sell 1 minion units or 100 million units, they won't get third party support.
The Wii has already shown us that no matter how many systems they sell, third parties will not support Nintendo. It's not a vendetta, it's not a conspiracy, it's everything to do with how Nintendo maintains, views, and treats third parties.
Sony and MS will always get better support from third parties because third parties simple get better information more timely and detailed and get better treatment from Sony and MS.
During Wii, Nintendo just let third parties hang out to dry, Nintendo didn't teach them how to use the wiimote, Nintnedo didn't provide nice tools to develop on the Wii, and Nintendo didn't give two shits if you release fitness dance sing club extreme versus the next final fantasy saga. To them, third parties were of little consequence.
For Christ shake, third parties had to rely on third party tools to develop for Wii because Nintendo provided crap API support for the wiimote out of the box.
Why would anyone think things have suddenly changed? Nintendo couldn't provide updated tools and devkits to developer in a time fashion pre-launch, let alone detailed documentation. Have you guys stopped to wonder why Nintendo is provionf origin out of the box? Because they don't anything else inhouse to offer. It's a damn joke.
Until Nintendo starts really caring in thiddepartment, it won't matter if they sell 1 minion units or 100 million units, they won't get third party support.
Is it?
I don't think, aside from Pokemon, that GBA counterparts of their popular franchises sold all that well eithert, esp compared to DS/3DS.
pieatorium
Member
Brain Training? Mario Kart? Nintendogs?
AC might be ahead but the DS version was also massive so it has a way to go so far.
NSMB is one of the only comparable follow-up as of now. Animal Crossing hasn't come out in the west yet but it's practically already poised to outdo it's DS counterpart by a big margin, the Japan numbers are insane.
pieatorium
Member
AC DS did 5.1million in japan
metalslimer
Member
Mario Kart is ahead, and i was not including IPs introduced last gen because how in the world could you have growth from the gamecube era of an IP introduced last gen which is what the conversation was about.
And New Leaf looks easily poised to outdo that, whether it outdoes it in the west is another matter.
pieatorium
Member
I guess Mario Kart must be significantly better in the west than the DS version? It's about a million behind in Japan
I don´t really need ton play any cards here, it´s just like it is. The handheld sector and it´s successful IPs are completely irrelevant for consoles because these are very different markets.
We have seen this over and over again.
Just look at the Vita, the GBA, the Monster Hunter series etc.
Considering that the premise for their most popular franchise is "Guy gets into some mushrooms and think's he's a superhero so he runs around stomping on turtles," I'd say that drug influence at some point in Nintendo's history is obvious.
This is the double standard that needs to stop (why many believe there is a bias against Nintendo as well) yet so many people don't have a problem with it or even realize they are doing it. Even if they do they don't care because it's Nintendo and they somehow deserve to be held to a different standard and have their goal post moved. One of the reasons on the ever growing list of why I just want to walk away from the gaming community as a whole after so many years.
I know, right. How else does someone come up with a name like Donkey Kong?
test_account
XP-39C²
I would say that there are competition from PS3 and Xbox 360. But true that they have no competition from any other new consoles.
Relax. There is plenty of vitriol for all of the game companies. Sony had plenty a couple of years ago (geohot, removal of otherOS, CD rootkits, etc), & MS is getting plenty now. And yes, Nintendo treated 3rd parties like shit for a long time, so if there is a bias against them some of it is deserved. Read Game Over or The Ultimate History of Video Games.
@Tash: what games have you made? Why dontcha give us a link to your site? Free advertising never hurts.
Well said
Nice to hear this perspective.
Flightmare
Member
Everybody knows Nintendo is indie friendly, but they need more than indies. And according to this article, Nintendo is doing a bad job getting 3rd parties on board
I can get indies everywhere, that´s not really a strong selling point for the WiiU.
Yes, it's only been out 6 months. We haven't even had 1 E3 since it's release. Even the dreamcast was out on the market for 3 years before it failed.
Flightmare
Member
Exactly
Yes, and I am saying I have a totally different impression
I am not saying they can't improve or that they are super awesome or better than anyone else but they are definitely not worse than Sony.
My impression with them (that includes both 2and party and 3rd party contacts for US and EU) has been immensely positive. They are coming over as very friendly, approachable and supportive. That's impressions from a year of dealing with them as well as impressions I got from meeting up with other indies being involved with either ports or exclusive titles for Nintendos platforms. Since it got brought up in the OP I felt inclined to comment on that specific point.
I do agree however that indies alone won't influence a console's market value. That's another topic, though
But to keep saying the sky is falling 6 month after a console release is just seriously..not smart..especially at the current situation of the console market in general.
I don't think I need to defend Nintendo or mean to say whatever they do is great. Just would like to put all this a bit into perspective to make sure the discussion stays fair.
I'd rather not use a forum to promote but I'd be happy to send you a link to the main project we work with right now in a PM
Avalanche is indie. A big indie, but still indie. Frontier is roughly the same size (~200 employees), develops for Wii U, and sent a speaker to iDÉAME this year. Oh, and they're European as well.
Flightmare
Member
I thought it was obvious what I meant, but Avalanche works with 3rd party publishers, which is what Nintendo needs
This just reeks as they never developed a Nintendo game so why bother now....i mean even Emily Rogers has been more sucessful in reaching Nintendo and she doesn't develop games...lol
I wouldn't say it was a conspiracy with the Wii, but it was certainly not because of lack of information or bad APIs, that just not something you base business decisions on, even it that was the case. I haven't been working on any of their platforms pre-launch, but I can't really imagine the early Wii dev kits being particularly hard to work with, as it's basically a gamecube, which had been avaialble fro half a decade. Sony's tools were way worse than MS but it didn't really affect the amount of support. It did to some extent affect the quality of early games, but that's another issue.
Not really familiar with the Wii dev tools, especially not early on. But figuring out the wiimote from a technical perspective really isn't that hard. IIRC it does all the processing internally so there's really no way it could have been very complex no matter how the official API was designed. Figuring out how to design a game around it is another matter, but not really something you would expect Nintendo to help you with.
Overall Nintendo's APIs are pretty straight forward and easy to use, at least they are now.
What's that even supposed to mean? Should they not allow publishers to make Dance Sing Club Extreme? Because blocking titles from release sure is developer friendly.
Has there been a lot of complaints about bad tools or lacking documentation during the WiiU launch? I can't really recall anything like that. Either way, now that it's out that shouldn't really be an issue and they're offering a bunch of free middleware to make development easier.
ok, I have no idea what you're talking about
That's ridiculous. Of course they care. Maybe not enough to moneyhat every publisher, but they care. And third parties shouldn't really care how much Nintendo 'cares' as long as it's a profitable platform. Right now the install base is small and the publishers don't see it as a future proof. If the install base was 100 million would get all the ps360 cross platform games, but might still be left behind once the other consoles arrive.
I don't really get this. Shouldn't Nintendo be looking to expand third party support? In order to do this, that means getting devs who hadn't made a game on a Nintendo system before.
Flightmare
Member
They already have the install base excuse, but they were very clear on that it's also the relationship with Nintendo that discourages them from developing on Wii U
Yep, that was the big promise from Nintendo
Of course i agree with you. But i just wonder what kind "treatment" are these 3rd parties like avalanche expecting...
I wonder if Avalanche would actually want Nintendo to publish their game(s) on Wii U and if this is the problem here. Because ... either they act as an indie developer and self publish on Wii U (a thing that is somehow proven to be quite easy) or they rely on publishers and in this case Nintendo should discuss with those publishers, not with Avalanche.
blu
Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
I had no idea bad relationships could secure me a devkit. Perhaps I should try.
The thread got quite long. But if you look at what he is actually saying.
It almost sounds like they have tried to contact Nintendo pre-Wii U and have bad experiences from that. Now their publisher covers those kind of connections for them (Sega/SE?). Maybe Avalanche isn't the best party to estimate how easy or hard Nintendo is to contact if you want to make a game on their system today. Not to say that Nintendo doesn't have any responsibility of correcting negative mindsets about their past mistakes.
It almost sounds like they have tried to contact Nintendo pre-Wii U and have bad experiences from that. Now their publisher covers those kind of connections for them (Sega/SE?). Maybe Avalanche isn't the best party to estimate how easy or hard Nintendo is to contact if you want to make a game on their system today. Not to say that Nintendo doesn't have any responsibility of correcting negative mindsets about their past mistakes.
Probably. It's similar to Crytek claiming they couldn't self-publish Crysis 3 on Wii U because they had no publishing license. They don't need one. But they apparently don't even know that... lol
See that's what I don't get. Nintendo is at EVERY developer event in both the states and EU. Big and small and I am running into them at EVERY conference I am attending and had no problems getting meetings with them or getting in contact with them after the events.
If you want to get your game on a platform you gotta be on location and pitch it to them in person. I think that should be fairly obvious..
The first time I was at GDC as a no name indie to pitch a game we got meetings with all the big guys on our first attempt. It all comes down to having a good initial introductory post if you ask them for a meeting and provide a lot of information on what you want to pitch to them. If anything, the hurdle here is to sign-up and invest into the matchmaking tool at the conference in question but publisher contacts (both Sony and Nintendo) are also always lurking around indie parties and events. Both parties were at the IGN indie showcase during GDC, for example.
If you inform yourself a bit and keep an ear on what is going on you shouldn't have problems getting in contact with either.
Angel Whispers
Member
Thanks for your response, Amir0x. For the most part, I felt it was thoughtful. There are some parts where I think we can share more of a common ground, and there are others where I still very much disagree, respectfully I hope. There might be some misunderstandings, too, as it became apparent that you had written from a North American perspective, while I was writing from a more European one. I'll try to return to this at some point in future, if not in this thread, then perhaps through message.
Steve Youngblood, you've asked me this question before - I'll address it, as I don't believe I did the first time. Rayman Legends being there was important; It was understood that it was an exclusive. Some had invested in a console for that game, while many others were either willing to invest in one, or waiting for it. I am not saying that this game alone is enough, and I had never suggested that. Aliens: Colonial Marines was important at a time, because the developers had talked up the use of the GamePad for it. Crysis 3 being there was important, too - if this game was released out of the Wii U's starting blocks, then perhaps it would give people more encouragement about the Wii U's graphics capabilities - If that was a launch window title, then imagine what can be achieved on it in 2017/2018, in its twilight years. NFS: Most Wanted exists, but the difference there is that it's a late port. These games were pencilled in for the Winter 2013 (Jan, Feb) - Please keep that period in mind; When you asked me this question the first time, I had written in response to this 'game drought', saying that these were events beyond Iwata's control. Those games were pencilled in for release during that period, when concerns of a 'game drought' started to arise. It wasn't those games alone - EA had cancelled other titles, while games such as Tomb Raider 2013 and Metal Gear Rising didn't make it. For Nintendo's part, Pikmin 3 was delayed, so that didn't help - But it is a belief of theirs that a bad, rushed game is bad forever. My comment was stating that had these games been released as planned, then concerns of a 'game drought' would've been far less pronounced - Because those decisions were beyond Iwata's control, I felt that this was not a broken promise, but rather an unfortunate series of events. As there were many calls for his head, some even wishing for his death, I had written in support of a man who, in my opinion, didn't deserve that hostility and treatment. I had never guaranteed, let alone suggested that the Wii U would've sold like hot cakes if those titles were released, but I feel that it wouldn't have lost momentum to such an extent, and that it could have helped them to some degree. Why else did it matter? Customer confidence in its future - Whatever you thought of those games doesn't matter here. Prospective Wii U owners would have been able to see visible support from 'third parties' being followed through from launch with something other than late ports, AND with titles released on a level playing field. As this wasn't very apparent, or at least, not apparent on the surface, it is likely, and perhaps understandable that some will show reluctance to bite.
Steve Youngblood, you've asked me this question before - I'll address it, as I don't believe I did the first time. Rayman Legends being there was important; It was understood that it was an exclusive. Some had invested in a console for that game, while many others were either willing to invest in one, or waiting for it. I am not saying that this game alone is enough, and I had never suggested that. Aliens: Colonial Marines was important at a time, because the developers had talked up the use of the GamePad for it. Crysis 3 being there was important, too - if this game was released out of the Wii U's starting blocks, then perhaps it would give people more encouragement about the Wii U's graphics capabilities - If that was a launch window title, then imagine what can be achieved on it in 2017/2018, in its twilight years. NFS: Most Wanted exists, but the difference there is that it's a late port. These games were pencilled in for the Winter 2013 (Jan, Feb) - Please keep that period in mind; When you asked me this question the first time, I had written in response to this 'game drought', saying that these were events beyond Iwata's control. Those games were pencilled in for release during that period, when concerns of a 'game drought' started to arise. It wasn't those games alone - EA had cancelled other titles, while games such as Tomb Raider 2013 and Metal Gear Rising didn't make it. For Nintendo's part, Pikmin 3 was delayed, so that didn't help - But it is a belief of theirs that a bad, rushed game is bad forever. My comment was stating that had these games been released as planned, then concerns of a 'game drought' would've been far less pronounced - Because those decisions were beyond Iwata's control, I felt that this was not a broken promise, but rather an unfortunate series of events. As there were many calls for his head, some even wishing for his death, I had written in support of a man who, in my opinion, didn't deserve that hostility and treatment. I had never guaranteed, let alone suggested that the Wii U would've sold like hot cakes if those titles were released, but I feel that it wouldn't have lost momentum to such an extent, and that it could have helped them to some degree. Why else did it matter? Customer confidence in its future - Whatever you thought of those games doesn't matter here. Prospective Wii U owners would have been able to see visible support from 'third parties' being followed through from launch with something other than late ports, AND with titles released on a level playing field. As this wasn't very apparent, or at least, not apparent on the surface, it is likely, and perhaps understandable that some will show reluctance to bite.
prag16
Banned
I see GCN level as the floor, unless Nintendo pulls the plug early and goes with a 4 year cycle (a la OG xbox).
Surpassing N64 should be doable too, but I don't expect a whole lot beyond that at this point.
Hmm, assuming at least a halfway decent chunk of the work is already done, maybe we can get a late Crysis 3 eShop only self-published port for cheap-ish? Doubt it, but would be cool.
Steve Youngblood
Member
From where I'm sitting, the only thing that changes is that the situation wouldn't be as bad if some of the things that were expected to happen did happen. But I would still disagree with the notion that -- on paper -- the launch plans were "fine." Not anticipating difficulty transitioning to HD is bad planning on the part of Pikmin. And on the third party front, many of the key games were never slated for release: stuff like Tomb Raider, Metal Gear Rising, Bioshock, or even DmC. There were clearly holes in the lineup even then.
I guess it could be argued that perhaps they expected some of those developers to come on board once the tandem of New Super Mario Bros. U (the followup to a wildly successful Wii game) and NintendoLand (to highlight the GamePad's functionality) carried it through a strong holiday season, but that doesn't strike me as particularly great planning on their part. Things might have gone better for them, but I don't really think you can look back -- even giving them the benefit of the doubt -- and conclude that the plans were solid save for some bad breaks.