James Scott
Banned
I'm doing some math based on a couple of articles and your post.Thanks for the corrections, I'll make changes to my original post.
I imagine we can assume that Bayonetta 2 cost less to make than Gears of War, but anyways, lets say Bayonetta 2's budget is a lot higher and put it at $15 million.
Based on this article http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2010/02/anatomy-of-a-60-dollar-video-game.html
your average $60 1st party games makes ~$35 per unit sold. If we assume all copies make that much*, Bayonetta 2 would have to sell around 427k to break even which I think is something it can get close to when all is said and done. So it doesn't look like a massive loss either way but we really do not have a concrete number for sales other than some rumored NPD numbers and some numbers from famitsu in japan.
As I said earlier, even if it doesn't break even they still benefit from having a critically successful title exclusive to their platform and something they can add to their portfolio.
*this does not include digital sales, which should make closer to $55, but not all retail sales will be sold for $60 so it cancels out.