• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

Because GAF demanded it... (Analyst): PS3 to Lead by 2011

Ajax said:
PS3 will be first by 2008 in USA. You can quote me on that.
Click to expand...

Quoted.

Now in 2 years when I check my post history for ridiculous things, I'll find this.

Edit: Oh, you said "BY" 2008. Well then, just 16 short months for the PS3 to pull ahead of the 360 (and keep ahead of Wii, which it probably won't at that point) in America. :lol Yeah, right.
 
Shiggy said:
How many X360 are sold through at this point? Something between 3.6 and 3.9 million (worldwide)?
Click to expand...

Predictions are that about 5.5-6 have shipped, MS is planning to have 10 shipped WW by EOY.

I don't know hard numbers
 
I think it's getting about time for a sold/shipped/installed/whatever prediction thread for the US through June 07. I'm willing to eat a little crow.

360 - 6 million
PS3 - 4 million
Wii - 2.5 million

PS3 would be slowly catching up to 360, Wii would be slipping further behind. Just my guess.
 
Juice said:
Predictions are that about 5.5-6 have shipped, MS is planning to have 10 shipped WW by EOY.

I don't know hard numbers
Click to expand...

I wanted to know the numbers of console which were sold through. As of June 2006, 5 million consoles were shipped as far as I know.
 
Personally, I don't know any kids in the US 8-15 crowd that are even remotely interested in the Wii (and I went out of my way to ask a younger cousin of mine and his friends.) Right now they are all about the 360 and PS3.

I suspect Sony will be in the lead everywhere but Japan by the time the dust settles after holiday 2007 (the Wii will be #1 in Japan.)
 
artful_dodger said:
Personally, I don't know any kids in the 8-15 crowd that are even remotely interested in the Wii (and I went out of my way to ask a younger cousin of mine and his friends.) Right now they are all about the 360 and PS3.

I suspect Sony will be in the lead everywhere but Japan by the time the dust settles after holiday 2007 (the Wii will be #1 in Japan.)
Click to expand...

I personally, as in totally anecdotal here, don't know anyone outside of this forum who is interested or excited about the Wii.
 
If Sony can actually rocket to first place in their first 13 months at $500-$600, MS should do a Dreamcast and pull the plug on the 360 immediately. Halo 3 swansong. Seriously.
 
jetjevons said:
Are you chatting with 6 to 16 year olds?
Click to expand...

As I said, for me, it's pure anecdotal. I have nieces and nephews who fall in that age range, acutally they're a little younger, and they all want 360 or PS3. Granted though, I don't think they understand the way the Wii plays just yet, and they'll need to see that for themselves before they pick up on it.

Still, I'd say for the most part 14-16+ year old boys are going to be digging on the PS3 and X360 more. Just my opinion though.
 
Just a shot in the dark, by 2011...

North America
Xbox 360~ 30m
PlayStation 3 ~25m
Wii~ 20m

Worldwide
PlayStation 3~ 60m
Wii~ 45m
Xbox 360~ 40m
 
johnjohnson said:
By 2011 X720 will get its second (or maybe third) generation games. Or do you really expect the X360 to have a longer life than the original Xbox?
Click to expand...

Most definitely I do. MS planned rather poorly with the original Xbox and was not able to reduce their manufacturing costs - even the last console rolling off the assembly line was sold at a loss. Its no wonder they wanted to cut that short. The 360 is better designed for cost reductions in the future so as long as MS is making a profit towards the end of their lifecycle, they will continue to support it for a longer period of time.
 
jarrod said:
Just a shot in the dark, by 2011...

North America
Xbox 360~ 30m
PlayStation 3 ~25m
Wii~ 20m

Worldwide
PlayStation 3~ 60m
Wii~ 45m
Xbox 360~ 40m
Click to expand...

I think this is a more likly senario with each console leading in a different region.

I am still skeptical of the Wii though. The DS will likely blow all of the above numbers out of the water and I'm not convinced that people will buy both the Wii and the DS.
 
jarrod said:
Just a shot in the dark, by 2011...

North America
Xbox 360~ 30m
PlayStation 3 ~25m
Wii~ 20m

Worldwide
PlayStation 3~ 60m
Wii~ 45m
Xbox 360~ 40m
Click to expand...

That PS3 worldwide number does not seem feasible to me, but it thats really allt hey bite at in europe, it could happen
 
Arsenal said:
The 360 is better designed for cost reductions in the future so as long as MS is making a profit towards the end of their lifecycle, they will continue to support it for a longer period of time.
Click to expand...

The 360 is an exercise in cost reduction
 
I say that as soon as it drops to ~$400ish for the "pro" bundle, they'll skyrocket even more.

You got to give Sony a little credit... even at $600 they're bound to sell out until March... and at that price they'll have quite a big price to chip away from. Picture this; they sell all 6million units at $600, pricedrop in march to $550 to sell to those still on the fence, pricedrop next fall to $500 to reap the holiday reward, then price drop in spring 2k8 to $450, etc. etc.

They could essentially prolong sell-through by dropping the price $50 every 6months for almost the entire console life-cycle. It's a clever plan, and there are enough sony fanboys at each pricepoint that they could sellout continuously... A lot of people in GAF and the gaming community seem to write off this possibility.
 
Arsenal said:
I think this is a more likly senario with each console leading in a different region.

I am still skeptical of the Wii though. The DS will likely blow all of the above numbers out of the water and I'm not convinced that people will buy both the Wii and the DS.
Click to expand...
I think has a great shot at leading Japan (like 15-20mk lifetime), and I think we'll see at least modest gains in NA/EU probably. Novel interfaces + (comparably) bargin pricing + nostalgia cashing-in is going to drive this thing like crazy. No way is it only going to push GameCube numbers though, in any market.

If I were to throw in handhelds....

North America
Nintendo DS~ 40m
PSP~ 20m

Worldwide
Nintendo DS~ 85m
PSP~ 40m
 
prediction time:

By the end of 2011

NA:
PS3 ~ 30m
Wii ~ 25m
X360 ~ 20m

Worldwide:
PS3 ~ 75m
Wii ~ 60m
X360 ~ 32m
 
The news story over at 1UP (disclaimer: mine) has some quotes directly from one of the analysts:

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3152900
1up.com said:
According to findings analyst group The Yankee Group released today, Sony's going to win the next-generation console battle. It's not going to by a knockout this round, though, but more of a "by decision" victory, with the firm's findings predicting PlayStation 3 capturing 44% of the market with 30 million units, 40% to Xbox 360 at 27 million units, and Wii trailing behind with 16% of the market, 11 million units sold.
There's been plenty of great things said about the Wii in recent months, so why think Nintendo will end up in last again? "Casual gamers don't buy consoles," said Michael Goodman, Yankee Group Media and Entertainment Strategies Senior Analyst. "They're [Nintendo] looking at the same market they've always had. And they're not going to spend money to go out and get it."

While Goodman praises the Wii as a "phenomenal product," he states it's "too much work for the majority of the market" and Nintendo isn't doing enough to "change the market dynamics significantly." He does believes, however, that while Wii will gain only a small amount of ground in America, it can pick up marketshare in Japan thanks to Microsoft's fumblings with Xbox 360, and southern Europe, due to a price sensitive market.

Will the PS3's expensive pricepoint price the company out of the race with Microsoft? Goodman doesn't think so; Sony has a trump card: "Brand loyalty. You've got 100 million PlayStation loyalists. Microsoft will do well, but it's difficult to go from 22 million sold [Xbox] to 100 million sold. It's an auspicious goal," says Goodman.

Simultaneously, he doesn't expect Microsoft will take the situation laying down. "[Microsoft] learned things over the course of the of the past 4-5 years... putting Sony on the defensive. The bottom line, which I doubt they've admit to you, is they're being forced to react to Microsoft." He cites Grand Theft Auto as an example of this. "It's coming out on both platforms, but coming out a month earlier on the 360. That's going to be a big driver for it. That's going to drive a lot of unit sales. Publishers in particular -- their actions say they see this as an even marketplace. Sony is not getting the same treatment that they have previously received."

Who said anything about the next Grand Theft Auto appearing earlier on Xbox 360, though? Goodman has his facts messed up; as far as we've heard, it's only receiving exclusive online content via Xbox Live Marketplace, and who knows what will change between now and the game's release next fall.

Goodman also commented about de-facto next-generation exclusives, such as Madden NFL '07, and if that would help sell consoles. "Absolutely. Any time advantage on the 360 for multiplatform helps," he says.

Graphics tend to play heavily the consumer's decision (something Nintendo's obviously hoping to change with Wii), and Goodman sees this playing into Xbox 360's favor because many games "currently ... look better on the 360 because it's second-third gen software," and "it's more refined," whereas PS3 games will only be "first-gen graphics."

Another point of interest is a prediction that console sales will be down overall, mostly due to the higher price tags. "You'll find less multiple console homes for the first two years. You're not going to find people going out to buy a PS3 after a 360 if they both do almost the same thing," he says. Goodman compares scenario to the console wars of 1995, when Sony challenged Sega and Nintendo for control of the market. "This is the strongest challenge to Sony's dominance since then," he continues.

Even if you don't believe or agree with their findings, there's at least one thing to take away from this report: this next-gen console battle is going to be bloody.
Click to expand...
 
jarrod said:
North America
Nintendo DS~ 40m
PSP~ 20m
Click to expand...
The GBA alone had massive success and appeal in the US, and had a near complete monopoly on the market, and it's only sold, what, 36m or so? You think the handheld market will increase almost two fold?
 
-Rogue5- said:
I say that as soon as it drops to ~$400ish for the "pro" bundle, they'll skyrocket even more.

You got to give Sony a little credit... even at $600 they're bound to sell out until March... and at that price they'll have quite a big price to chip away from. Picture this; they sell all 6million units at $600, pricedrop in march to $550 to sell to those still on the fence, pricedrop next fall to $500 to reap the holiday reward, then price drop in spring 2k8 to $450, etc. etc.

They could essentially prolong sell-through by dropping the price $50 every 6months for almost the entire console life-cycle. It's a clever plan, and there are enough sony fanboys at each pricepoint that they could sellout continuously... A lot of people in GAF and the gaming community seem to write off this possibility.
Click to expand...

The only problem is that Sony doesn't exist independent of MS and Nintendo. Yeah, they can drop prices...but so can the others. And customers will see that.

Unless PS3 just has wildly more support than the other systems, it's gonna be difficult to get people to say "I'll wait for you Sony". Sony isn't Alicia Keyes (OT joke, hurhur)
 
By 2011? Of course that's the case. It'll be a Genesis/SNES scenario, with the PS3 having a longer life. Not exactly a bold prediction.
 
Beowvlf said:
The GBA alone had massive success and appeal in the US, and had a near complete monopoly on the market, and it's only sold, what, 36m or so? You think the handheld market will increase almost two fold?
Click to expand...
Well, since the amount of viable massmarket handhelds increased by two fold... sure. :)

DS had a pretty slow start (compared to GBA), though I think we'll see Nintendo lengthening their handheld lifecycles now probably (ie: no DS-2 until 2008/2009). Also, GBA is probably closer to 40m today in North America.
 
Wish I could find the link, but I remember an article last year with someone from Microsoft. The interview was with either J Allard or Peter Moore, and they said that their goal was a three-step process -

1. Introduce themselves to the marketplace with the Xbox ( and lose money )

2. Chip away considerable marketshare from Sony with the Xbox 360 ( and lose money )

3. Finally take the lead in the industry with their third generation machine


Wonder if that still holds true? This holiday season might significantly alter their plans, depending on well they do.
 
I'm sorry, but there's very little to suggest that the Wii will outsell the 360 in North America. Not even Nintendo's DS sales prior to the DS Lite. Not Nintendo's third party software support. Its price advantage will even be negated VERY quickly when the 360 drops for the first time.
 
Speevy said:
I'm sorry, but there's very little to suggest that the Wii will outsell the 360 in North America. Not even Nintendo's DS sales prior to the DS Lite. Not Nintendo's third party software support. Its price advantage will even be negated VERY quickly when the 360 drops for the first time.
Click to expand...

Speevy comment FTW.

I agree with this. Japan Wii will explode because 360 is a non factor. But the 360 will be a big factor in the USA, especially if MS ends up pricing hardware aggressively.
 
PS3 will not lead. I doubt it very much. Price matters. XB3 might launch in 2010-12 so it might lead then but... again, I doubt that.
 
360 stumbling in Japan could still really hurt the machine worldwide though (just as an overwhelming JP success could help push Wii)... Microsoft needs to keep insuring that desirable JP content makes it way to the machine, and if the market won't provide for that, I hope they keep using developer "incentives" in it's place.
 
Campster said:
That's assuming the PS3 magically turns a profit. MS's game division is still hemorrhaging cash, and the PS3 certainly seems to be following the Microsoft mantra of "tons of power sold at a loss in order to gain market share so that some day we can actually turn a profit on these things."
Click to expand...


The PS3 will help sell games, movies, stereos and tv's all of which Sony makes.
 
1up.com said:
According to findings analyst group The Yankee Group released today, Sony's going to win the next-generation console battle. It's not going to by a knockout this round, though, but more of a "by decision" victory, with the firm's findings predicting PlayStation 3 capturing 44% of the market with 30 million units, 40% to Xbox 360 at 27 million units, and Wii trailing behind with 16% of the market, 11 million units sold.
There's been plenty of great things said about the Wii in recent months, so why think Nintendo will end up in last again? "Casual gamers don't buy consoles," said Michael Goodman, Yankee Group Media and Entertainment Strategies Senior Analyst. "They're [Nintendo] looking at the same market they've always had. And they're not going to spend money to go out and get it."
Click to expand...

What does this even mean?
 
irfan said:
Even the best case scenario has Sony losing market share, how is it the best case scenario? :(
Click to expand...

losing "marketshare" doesn't necessarily mean a decline in all around userbase.
 
xaosslug said:
losing "marketshare" doesn't necessarily mean a decline in all around userbase.
Click to expand...

it really depends on how much you expect the market to grow this gen. Most analysts are predicting a decline in console unit sales, including the one quoted in this article. Although, I have never heard sound reasoning as to why they think that.
 
Kung Fu Jedi said:
I personally, as in totally anecdotal here, don't know anyone outside of this forum who is interested or excited about the Wii.
Click to expand...
I could say the same thing about the PS3.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Shu Yoshida was fired by Jim Ryan because he didn't listen to him
2 3 4 5
202
975
Dynasty8 replied
Bethesda lead Todd Howard names Expedition 33 his Game of the Year because it’s a “really unique piece of art” (and it just works)
37
756
p_xavier replied
Halo: Campaign Evolved is coming to PS5 because the FPS is "best played when we have a large, healthy community" say lead devs:
2
57
740
Codes 208 replied
Report: Nvidia is cancelling RTX 50 Super Series because of AI demand
Rumor  2 3 4
181
4K
cinnamonandgravy replied
Fortnite Struggling Is A Worrying Sign For The Industry, Says Analyst
Opinion Business  2 3 4 5
201
1K
sodstall replied
Top Bottom