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[Joe]

Possible evidence of China practicing preemptive attacks against U.S. bases ranges from 2012 to October 2016. There is no new 2017 information here but this becomes relevant given the current tensions.

It seems to me that a lot of people don't take China as seriously as they should.

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War on the Rocks: Has China Been Practicing Preemptive Missile Strikes Against U.S. Bases?

In reality, the greatest military threat to U.S. vital interests in Asia may be one that has received somewhat less attention: the growing capability of China’s missile forces to strike U.S. bases.

This is a time of increasing tension, with China’s news organizations openly threatening war.

U.S. leaders and policymakers should understand that a preemptive Chinese missile strike against the forward bases that underpin U.S. military power in the Western Pacific is a very real possibility, particularly if China believes its claimed core strategic interests are threatened in the course of a crisis and perceives that its attempts at deterrence have failed.

Such a preemptive strike appears consistent with available information about China’s missile force doctrine, and the satellite imagery shown below points to what may be real-world efforts to practice its execution.

The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLA) Rocket Force originally focused on nuclear deterrence. Since the Cold War, the force has increasingly focused on the employment of precision-guided conventional ballistic and land attack cruise missiles. The command now consists of about 100,000 personnel and was elevated in December 2015 to a status co-equal to that of China’s other military services.

“In all, Chinese military writings on conventional missile campaigns stress the importance of surprise and suggest a preference for preemptive strikes.” And while most Sinologists discount the idea of a true bolt-from-the-blue attack in a crisis without first giving an adversary a chance to back down, preemptive missile strikes to initiate active hostilities could be consistent with China’s claimed overall military strategy of “active defense.”

As a 2007 RAND study of China’s anti-access strategies explained, “This paradox is explained by defining the enemy’s first strike as ‘any military activities conducted by the enemy aimed at breaking up China territorially and violating its sovereignty’…and thereby rendered the equivalent of a ‘strategic first shot.’” China analyst Dean Cheng stated similarly in 2015, “From Mao to now, the concept of the active defense has emphasized assuming the strategic defensive, while securing the operational and tactical initiative, including preemptive actions at those levels if necessary.”

Thus, China could consider a preemptive missile strike as a defensive “counter-attack” to a threat against China’s sovereignty (e.g., over Taiwan or the South China Sea) solely in the political or strategic realm.

If such a strike still seems unlikely, consider that U.S. military and civilian leaders may have a blind spot regarding the capabilities of the PLA Rocket Force. The bulk of the PLA Rocket Force — the conventionally armed precision-strike units — have no real counterpart in the U.S. military. American long-range ballistic missiles are all nuclear-tipped and therefore focused on nuclear deterrence, and the Army’s short-range tactical ballistic missiles are designed for battlefield use. Also, per the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, the United States fields no medium- or intermediate-range ballistic missiles of any kind, nor any ground-launched land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs).

But for now, a layered ballistic missile defense is necessary, as the short-range Patriot air and missile defense batteries currently guarding U.S. and allied bases in Japan seem unlikely to succeed against a mass Chinese raid.

Author: Thomas Shugart is a Senior Military Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a submarine warfare officer in the U.S. Navy. The opinions expressed here are the author’s and do not represent the official position of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.

Possible PLA Rocket Force ballistic missile impact range in Western China.

Left side – Possible vehicle targets with sub-munition impact pattern, imagery dated Dec. 2013. Right side – U.S. Patriot air and missile defense battery, Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. Scale of sub-munition pattern overlaid for comparison.

Possible parked aircraft target, imagery dated August 2013. Upper left aircraft shaped target, imagery dated May 2012. Lower right – F-22 Fighter Parking Area, Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan.

Possible test targets simulating above-ground fuel tanks, imagery dated September 2012. Compared to actual fuel tanks in Japan, similar scale.

Possible runway cratering munition testing, imagery dated Sept. 2012.

Possible mock electronic substation target, imagery dated July 2013. Note no electrical lines running to or from the target in its very remote location. While no craters are visible, disablement may be planned using other methods, such as dispersal of conductive graphite filaments.

Possible hardened aircraft shelter or bunker test targets, imagery dated Oct. 2016. Penetrator sub-munition impacts visible. Lower right: Misawa Air Base, Japan, similar scale.

Possible moored ship and naval facility targets, imagery dated August 2013. Compared for scale with actual U.S. destroyer.

Possible naval ship and harbor targets, compared to inner harbor at U.S. naval base at Yokosuka, Japan.

 

[xxracerxx]

Seems like a stretch.

edit: I should clarify, it seems like a stretch that they are only planning against the US. They will be planning for a shit ton of contingencies just like almost every other military. This just seems like standard operating procedure here.

 

[lastplayed]

Gotta train against someone.

 

[Gallbaro]

Seems like a stretch.

Pfft, please.

The USA has plans to invade Canada. Standard operating procedure.

Big issue with China is we do not actually understand how much control the politicians actually have over the military.

 

[xxracerxx]

Pfft, please.

The USA has plans to invade Canada. Standard operating procedure.

I am just saying these seem like standard testing practices.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

Nothing out of the ordinary, We have training for attacking pretty much anyone ever.

 

[ponpo]

Operation Chinese Freedom incoming.

https://a.pomf.cat/hmdlqv.webm

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

If they go to war with anyone near them in the Pacific it will almost inevitably drag America in, and America is their largest military threat. So yeah they probably are theorizing and practicing for plausible attack targets. Planning for war is what military planners do, and it's up to the political leadership of the PRC as to whether or not they ever do anything with these plans. There is no current indication that a war is likely in the near future.

 

[Generalpsyduck]

I dont see the point, they take us out we take them out game over.

 

[BackLogJoe]

Our military does the same thing. Everyday.

 

[| Praxis |]

China does care

 

[Madness]

Even the UK has measures and plans for attack against other countriea, even the US. China is no different than Russia or the Soviet Union. It is not a question of IF but WHEN they will challenge US hegemony in the world. Economically after a few more years, they will be the de facto world economic power. 10 or 20 more years and they'll surpass Russia conventionally. Military spending is already over 110 billion USD with estimates at it being 200 billion+ secretly.

Against the US, which is the superior conventional or nuclear power, pre emptive strike is their only option. Look at Pearl Harbor with Japan. The whole goal of this South China Sea bs is to have a forward operating base sort of like Okinawa and Guam and Hawaii for the US.

 

[kmfdmpig]

It makes sense for them to practice that and prepare for it, but I'm sure they realize that actually carrying through with that would mean a major confrontation that they'd prefer to avoid.

 

[yyzjohn]

Are all those middles made in China?

 

[Joe]

China practicing against mock American bases is only part of the issue.

Other concerns:
- China perceives threats to its sovereignty as the first strike
- Preemptive strikes are in China's missile use doctrine
- US military does not have capable defenses against a modern Chinese missile program
- US military personnel is not trained for a preemptive Chinese missile strike scenario

 

[Xando]

Not surprising. I'm sure the US has similar plans just like both countries probably have nuclear armed subs infront of each others coasts.

Preparation is everything.

 

[andythinkpad]

This practice is against Taiwan military assets.

If DPP of Taiwan get up and declare independence tomorrow, they will face military action. You start the first wave with saturated missile attack.

It's funny how people just assume Taiwan is a part of some kind of global unified democratic country defense pack when the US administration doesn't want to guarantee support in Europe.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

Even the UK has measures and plans for attack against other countriea, even the US.

You think that the UK and US have current plans for war with each other?

 

[jellies_two]

China practicing against mock American bases is only part of the issue.

Other concerns:
- China perceives threats to its sovereignty as the first strike
- Preemptive strikes are in China's missile use doctrine
- US military does not have capable defenses against a modern Chinese missile program
- US military personnel is not trained for a preemptive Chinese missile strike scenario

I globally swapped China for US in this paragraph and it makes just as much sense, or is just as vague. Shrug. Super powers being super powers.

 

[Seiryoden]

Sure they have. Fascinating to see how many people have wet themselves over Russian hacking while giving China a free pass on industrial (in terms of target and scale) espionage. Sweating over St Petersburg Troll Factories, whilst ignoring the 50c gang. China is very clear on where all its force should be projected.

 

[4Tran]

China practicing against mock American bases is only part of the issue.

Other concerns:
- China perceives threats to its sovereignty as the first strike
- Preemptive strikes are in China's missile use doctrine
- US military does not have capable defenses against a modern Chinese missile program
- US military personnel is not trained for a preemptive Chinese missile strike scenario

Everyone practices military strikes against everyone else though. This is called standard military preparation.

Sure they have. Fascinating to see how many people have wet themselves over Russian hacking while giving China a free pass on industrial (in terms of target and scale) espionage. Sweating over St Petersburg Troll Factories, whilst ignoring the 50c gang. China is very clear on where all its force should be projected.

Russian hacking was only considered a big deal when they threatened to influence a presidential election. You do realize that their preferred candidate won that one, right?

 

[Twilight Princess]

China does care

China do care

 

[Bubba_Sparks]

Not surprising. I'm sure the US has similar plans just like both countries probably have nuclear armed subs infront of each others coasts.

Preparation is everything.

China's submarine force is basic, and limited primarily to diesel electric's. They maybe have four SSBNs - submarine that launches nuclear ballistic missiles - and only started their first patrols about a year or so ago. The US has 14 Ohio class SSBNs which not only carry more ballistic missiles - 24 missiles with up to 12 independently targeting warheads each vs. 12 ballistic missiles with up to 4 warheads - but also have greater range. It's scary to think that the current Ohio nuclear force carries over 10,000 times the destructive power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima!

The Chinese conducting training in this manner is significant because it shows they are singularly focused on defeating a very specific enemy. They are building mock-ups of US like targets and conducting practice on them. That tells you who they are considering going to war with. As also mentioned in the article, Chinese military doctrine allows for military retaliation against diplomatic threats. Which means stupid shit Trump may be likely to do. On top of that, a suprise attack could be devastating to US forces in the region. Significantly enough so that the US might respond with a limited nuclear strike.

 

[PantherLotus]

THIS

THIS IS WHAT PROPAGANDA LOOKS LIKE

Watch for it, folks. Trump wants war with China. These are the types of stories that suddenly started popping up out of nowhere before GWB and company lost their dumb minds about Iraq.

 

[Grover Cleveland]

You think that the UK and US have current plans for war with each other?

Yes.

Every developed nation has military plans drawn up for engagement with every other country on the map.

Just because no one expects to ever use them, doesn't mean they aren't (or shouldn't be) drawn up.

 

[LQX]

Isn't this a given? Their military leaders would be incompetent if there were not plans on the table on how to wage war on the US if it came to it. And I'm sure it is the same for the US. Come on.

 

[Bowler]

China practicing against mock American bases is only part of the issue.

Other concerns:
- China perceives threats to its sovereignty as the first strike
- Preemptive strikes are in China's missile use doctrine
- US military does not have capable defenses against a modern Chinese missile program
- US military personnel is not trained for a preemptive Chinese missile strike scenario

These bolded is factually wrong, they don't have capable defenses on some oversea bases. Most domestic bases do. In fact some of our anti missile defense systems can cover alot of ground domestically.

Second one, is only partially true there are many contingency plans in place for any preemptive strike, the issue is again is over sea installations. Domestically we are truly safer then most think.

 

[wandering]

Military brass make military plans. In other news, the sky is blue and water is wet.

This is the kind of fear-mongering the Trump administration wants.

 

[4Tran]

You think that the UK and US have current plans for war with each other?

Absolutely. It'd be irresponsible for the UK to not have a plan for facing off against every other nuclear power, including France, Israel, Pakistan, and India in the mix. The same goes for the US except that they would have more plans against smaller countries.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

Yes.

Every developed nation has military plans drawn up for engagement with every other country on the map.

Just because no one expects to ever use them, doesn't mean they aren't (or shouldn't be) drawn up.

Sounds pretty legit. Why wouldn't I believe you.

Absolutely. It'd be irresponsible for the UK to not have a plan for facing off against every other nuclear power, including France, Israel, Pakistan, and India in the mix. The same goes for the US except that they would have more plans against smaller countries.

I hear that the plans the UK has for nuclear war against the US are real special. Stephen Hawking drew them up I believe, totally fool proof.

 

[Syf]

It would be very naive to think many countries don't have the exact same sort of plans, including the US.

 

[Bubba_Sparks]

Isn't this a given? Their military leaders would be incompetent if there were not plans on the table on how to wage war on the US if it came to it. And I'm sure it is the same for the US. Come on.

No, this type of preparation is not a given. It's highly specific and directed at one adversary, right down to constructing mock-ups of their facilities. The US doesn't build mock-ups of Chinese naval yards and military air bases so US commanders can easily identify them for attack. It's not remotely similar. Their is a difference between being prepared for war, and preparing for war. China looks to be leaning towards the later, rather than the former.

 

[JJDubz]

Here's the twitter of the author.
https://twitter.com/tshugart3
His position in the military:

Thomas Shugart is a Senior Military Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a submarine warfare officer in the U.S. Navy

To me, it seems like he has a pretty clear agenda. (like ~80% of his feed is China fear-mongering)
Also, there isn't a shred of international relations theory in the article. These 'in-case of emergency' plans are not rare; The US had and likely has plans against liberal allies, even when liberal states don't go to war with other liberal states.

This is all 'doom, gloom, and support the troops' (fund the military) sclock.

 

[cpp_is_king]

All militaries do this.

Just like they intercept other governments' communications and all kinds of other shit. Nothing to see here.

 

[knitoe]

The first country to develop a global laser defense grid will change the world overnight. Not having to worry about missiles will be a total game changer. USA needs to get on this asap and why their adversaries are so against developing any missile defense advancements because step by step that's where it will be headed.

 

[Kuro Madoushi]

Isn't this a given? Their military leaders would be incompetent if there were not plans on the table on how to wage war on the US if it came to it. And I'm sure it is the same for the US. Come on.

America already has plans against other countries (even Canada) D:

The whole site is simple fearmongering as far as I'm concerned.

Any country that starts a military fight with the States is incredibly stupid. You could get Russia, China, and India on one team and they still wouldn't be able to take the States out as far as I'm concerned.

What Americans 'should' be more worried about are attacks against infrastructure, which already have alarms going up, but nobody seems to give a fuck; attacks against the economy, which China is definitely well equipped to do; and attacks on their election, which I guess one could argue was already successful, but even without Russia's influence, it seems it's ridiculously easy to influence American politics with money.

 

[N.Domixis]

if us and china go to war, it would destroy most of the world, whats the point?

 

[Mobius 1]

If you don't know this, we have nuclear weapons trained on Russia and China 24/7, ready to go. So do they, on us. Don't fool yourselves thinking the world is safe from calamity. We're one major crisis away from getting fucked since the 50's and that' unlikely to change.

 

[Seiryoden]

Everyone practices military strikes against everyone else though. This is called standard military preparation.


Russian hacking was only considered a big deal when they threatened to influence a presidential election. You do realize that their preferred candidate won that one, right?

I was going to edit:

Edit: Not to diminish the very real threat that Putin's Russia poses to Europe and America's democratic consensus (or native dissidents), rather to say that there are state actors who will see the current disorder our shameful historical failures have delivered as an opportunity.

And now I have. Naturally, an absence of explicit condemnation should not, of necessity, signify approbation but I did think a codicil was called for.

 

[wandering]

Here's the twitter of the author.
https://twitter.com/tshugart3
His position in the military:

To me, it seems like he has a pretty clear agenda. (like ~80% of his feed is China fear-mongering)
Also, there isn't a shred of international relations theory in the article. These 'in-case of emergency' plans are not rare; The US had and likely has plans against liberal allies, even when liberal states don't go to war with other liberal states.

This is all 'doom, gloom, and support the troops' (fund the military) sclock.

Exactly, this is the military industrial complex at work clamoring for increased funding.

 

[Renekton]

If you don't know this, we have nuclear weapons trained on Russia and China 24/7, ready to go. So do they, on us. Don't fool yourselves thinking the world is safe from calamity. We're one major crisis away from getting fucked since the 50's and that' unlikely to change.

Can China's nukes reach US?

 

[Hierophant]

The US military has plans in case of aliens, they definitely have the same sort of plans

 

[4Tran]

All militaries do this.

Just like they intercept other governments' communications and all kinds of other shit. Nothing to see here.

That's right. Everyone spies on everyone else; even strong allies. It's the prudent thing to do, and there are relatively few penalties for doing so.

Can China's nukes reach US?

Chinese ICBMs can reach the US West Coast, and their SLBMs should be able to hit anywhere in the US (if the subs aren't located first). Luckily, the US doesn't have to worry about Chinese strategic bombers for the time being.

 

[Mobius 1]

Can China's nukes reach US?

Yes, they have ICBMs that can reach anywhere but parts of South America. Rumored to now be capable of delivering multiple warheads per missile.

Edit: Here is some info.

 

[Bowler]

The first country to develop a global laser defense grid will change the world overnight. Not having to worry about missiles will be a total game changer. USA needs to get on this asap and why their adversaries are so against developing any missile defense advancements because step by step that's where it will be headed.

We are almost there my man. Hellads and HellMD are almost stage 4 completion. Liquid fucking lasers that can be as small to fit on a humvee and large enough to take down missiles in the atmosphere

 

[spineduke]

THIS

THIS IS WHAT PROPAGANDA LOOKS LIKE

Watch for it, folks. Trump wants war with China. These are the types of stories that suddenly started popping up out of nowhere before GWB and company lost their dumb minds about Iraq.

cannot stress this enough - fear mongering articles that have suspicuous timing.

 

[jellies_two]

cannot stress this enough - fear mongering articles that have suspicuous timing.

Does the military allow senior people to agitate from outside their job so easily?
isn't that sort of like having some guy high up in the EPA put together presentations on the weekend on how badly Monsanto is behaving and when we will do something about it?

 

[jerry113]

If you don't know this, we have nuclear weapons trained on Russia and China 24/7, ready to go. So do they, on us. Don't fool yourselves thinking the world is safe from calamity. We're one major crisis away from getting fucked since the 50's and that' unlikely to change.

why are humans so stupid; we were a mistake

 

[JC Lately]

Why bomb what you can simply repossess? How much of our debt do they own now?

 

[4Tran]

Yes, they have ICBMs that can reach anywhere but parts of South America. Rumored to now be capable of delivering multiple warheads per missile.

Edit: Here is some info.

Whoops. This is more updated information.

Does the military allow senior people to agitate from outside their job so easily?
isn't that sort of like having some guy high up in the EPA put together presentations on the weekend on how badly Monsanto is behaving and when we will do something about it?

Yes. Not only that, but often the people doing the agitating hire ex-military personnel to help them. The understanding is that a senior military officer will suffer with a lesser salary while he's in service, but will pick up a cushy lobbying job with a military contractor or thinktank on quitting. It's a very incestuous relationship.