Do you really think the average layperson knows the difference between xbox live and PSN?
In terms of the full bullet-point feature comparison list? No. In terms of understanding that switching from one to the other will prevent them from playing with their friends? Absolutely.
You keep talking about this like the issue is spending five minutes making a new account. That suggests to me that you are not commenting from a position of knowledge here. The issue is, more than anything else, social: people are going to do what it takes to keep playing with their friends.
Also, I mean, you're starting from the wrong position here with "it's not so bad to create a new account." That's looking at it from the perspective of "for people who want to switch to Wii U, will a new network stop them?" The answer to that might be no, but it's not the relevant question. What you need to be asking is "for people who have no default inclination whatsoever to switch to Wii U, can its offerings be
so appealing that it wins them over?" That's a much harder hill to climb. The dedicated multiplayer community is going to be far and away the hardest portion of the market for Nintendo to peel away.
You really think the majority of 360 owners are so tied down to their live accounts that they'd be willing to shell out an extra couple hundred dollars?
The type of choice you're presenting here doesn't really line up. You're looking at it like everyone will have to buy a new console right away so the only question is how they'll weigh the specific launch offerings. The reality is that people will jump into the next generation in the same waves they did this time: dedicated core hobbyists first, followed by increasingly less dedicated players as the prices drop. Anyone who's a one-console 360 owner, who plays online
This exact aspect is what makes the network effect so relevant. The people who will be buying new consoles within their first year or two of life are dedicated game hobbyists: people who are more experienced, more knowledgeable, and more demanding than the majority of the market. They, out of all consumers, are the most likely to have a network worth carrying over and to make software decisions during the early days of a generation based on that network.
Once these people get established that's going to set the pace for the later adopters. If early buyers make 720 the go-to system for Modern Warfare and company, later, more casual buyers will be gravitated to that system. It's not impossible for Nintendo to fight this loop, but it would basically require them to make Wii U online
so compelling that early adopters start buying COD there right away rather than just waiting out an extra year on the 360 edition.
(Also, I mean, the idea that Wii U is going to be $200 cheaper than 720 and offer "similar features" is completely absurd.)
S (I think it was like 10$) for St. Nick and then Kirby I picked up myself for $7.99 thanks to GAFfers posting about that Bestbuy deal earlier in the week!