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could PS4 & 720 struggle like the wii u ?

Marketing doesn't equal economics.

If it did Windows Phone marketshare would be more than within a margin of error of being statistically irrelevant.

Here are some economics.

1. Europe is fucked. The market is going to have less of an impact on the future of consoles over the next decade then it ever has, in the history of gaming. Every country owes every other country money. Well, except Germany and England. However, to pay back Germany in England, all the other European countries need to get the money they lent back from the other country which is in debt as much or more than the first country. Meaning Germany and England will never get their money back. Don Drummond said the only way for Europe to get it self out of this hole, it to cut all wadges in effected countries by 50 percent across the board. This won't happen. Meaning they all must default. If they default, Germany and England then become broke because so much of their inherent wealth is tied up in assets such as loans. Meaning, nobody is going to go out and drop $400 on a console any time soon. As the decade moves forward, this issue will only get worse. Why? because they have not in-acted any of these measures yet to stabilize the European economy. So, peoples pocket books, outside of Greece and Spain have yet to be hit. Believe you me, it's coming, and it will be coming this year. Which is why banks like TD are getting ready for it now.

2. Since Europe is largely fucked, lets take a look at Asia. Well, everyone in Asia hates everyone else. Japan is gearing up for war with China, and China doesn't buy consoles. Japan also has no money, and is going to have to take measures to fix their economy as well. I mean, they barely give a shit about consoles as it stands, when their paychecks begin to go down, and they begin firing people to keep margins at an acceptable level, they will give a fuck even less about consoles.

3. This leaves us with North America. Where, although bad, Americans economy is a hell of a lot more pretty when it comes to a supply/demand curve then anything else in the world. Canada is fine, Canadians are always fine. So, what is the most popular console with core gamers, and parents of core gamers in North America? Thats right, Xbox 360. So on the one continent where sales are going to matter most this coming decade, Xbox already has a larger presence, and already sells more games then anything else.

4. So now, what is in Microsoft's best economic interest. It's to push their console. Now this is where the marketing comes in. Since economically, it makes sense to squeeze what they can out of Europe, and tell marketing to shove Xbox 720 down the throats of North Americans. North Americans can afford it, their buying more goods then every before, each Christmas since 2008 sales have been going up, the unemployment rating is dropping, and the next Xbox will be able to replace many different items in the hosehold. Making the average person more likely to buy one then 3 separate items. Now you takes these factors, of course in significantly more depth. Find what you feel the demand is, talk to your manufacturing partners and estimate what you can supply, plot these points, and find out a price point. All signs point to, not a Wii U failure.
 
I remember paying $500+ for a launch 360 with an extra controller, game, play and charge kit + extra goodies.

I will probably pay the same amount for both as well.
 
Wii U had what, 3 games you couldn't get elsewhere? One of which will mostly go mutli-plat to recoup costs. And then a handful of overpriced, underperforming ports of games released months to a year earlier. If that's what you're expecting from the next consoles, I think we'll all be happy when you're proven wrong. And even if the worst case scenario does happen and we do get that, at least the ports wont be old, nor will they be of lesser quality than their 360/PS3 brethren.
Which game would that be?
 
I think so. I feel that in the past people bought consoles so they could have DVD players, Blu Ray players, or just a streaming box. Now that the PS3 and Xbox 360 do all of these things really well and don't cost all that much money I just don't see people being so quick to jump in and get a new console.

Honestly it's going to be a very interesting generation and there's about a million ways that sony or mircrosoft can fuck something up so we'll see what happens.
 
I would suspect come E3 Nintendo is going to make some major calculated announcements for the holidays which in return is going to add extra stress to both MS and Sony with the launch of their next gen systems.
Nothing short of a $100 price drop will "stress" MS or Sony and Nintendo doesn't like to toss money into a raging inferno of red ink.
Nintendo will have Wii Sports U out by next Christmas, other than that, at least one of Tokyo EAD, Retro, or Monolith. I don't know if that's enough to trump new console hype.
Nothing trumps new console hype. It applies to Sony, MS and Nintendo. The new console always gets the spotlight. Even the Wii U was the talk of the town despite Nintendo's efforts to make their launch as low key as possible. When MS and Sony show off their wares it becomes their holiday.
 
They can and will.

A lot of people thought the gaming industry was recession proof. It's not. Combined with the long generation, the market is in a greatly depressed state even with the windfall partially made up by DD.

When the market recovers fully, we'll see much more activity as far as game sales go. Of course, just as the effect from the recession lagged. It'll take slightly longer for the gaming industry to feel the recovery.
 
I think they'll do very well. People have been waiting a long time for new consoles. Since it's been so long since a console refresh the tech is so far advanced that it's going to be a huge improvement, even to unsophisticated consumers.
 
If the pricing sucks and too many "cross gen" third party games fail to demonstrate what the systems can really offer, the typical customer could be unimpressed.

But I have to imagine that enough emphasis will be put on first party exclusives early on that it won't be too hard to to show a leap over systems that will be six and seven years old. It really comes down to software and pricing, as always.
 
I think a lot of this depends on economics and perceived value. If the games at launch are largely still available on the previous platforms, I would think sales would be underwhelming like they have been for the Wii U. I don't think the Wii U has been the apocalyptic failure that most knee jerk haters want it to be, but it's definitely been below the bar Nintendo set for themselves with the Wii. Sony and Microsoft will likely have to contend with the first round of platform exclusive high budget Wii U games, so they'll have to bring some top notch exclusives with them for launch to grab the mainstream, who are generally more cost conscious than GAF early adopters.

Honestly, I hope all three platform are successes, just like all three eventually were last generation. I don't think Sony or Microsoft will be selling hardware at a loss this time around, so I'm expecting a $399 base price and hopefully Nintendo consolidating their SKU's and dropping their price for the holiday. If they are all competitive and sell well, it's better for gamers. More choice is good.
 
Nintendo will have Wii Sports U out by next Christmas, other than that, at least one of Tokyo EAD, Retro, or Monolith. I don't know if that's enough to trump new console hype.

Price drop would be my best guess with a new Mario kart or Mario game. I'm thinking if they could do it with the 3DS why cant they do it with the Wii U.
 
Razor's Edge was published by Nintendo too.

Nintendo is FUNDING Bayonetta 2. It is not going multiplatform. People need to get this into their heads at this point.

And also, yes. There's a very real chance of these new consoles falling flat on their faces. People like to point to a variety of things to tell themselves it won't happen to their brand of choice, but no company is immune. Time will tell. My bet is they will price themselves out of the market at the beginning and the average consumer won't see the benefit of HD+ like your average forum-goer will. As time goes on and the price drops occur, it will get better. But people thinking these things are going to come out gangbusters for sure, no chance of failure are fooling themselves.
 
Nintendo Land
NSMBU
Scribblenauts
Zombie U
Funky Barn
Game Party Champions
Rabbids Land
Sing Party
Sports Connection

Dubious: Ninja Gaiden 3: Razor's Edge

Technically more than 3, but in terms of stuff worth having, sure.

My wife did not grow up playing games, but she's hopelessly addicted to Scribblenauts. It's available on PC, but the gamepad is really convenient and intuitive to play it with.
 
I think both will have a decent launch. As others have said I think price and innovation outside of graphics will be key. I have a feeling Nintendo is going to be in a solid 2nd no matter whos in first. I think Christmas 2013 is going be work to Nintendo's advantage on the whole. A Price drop(299) and major IP releases combined with basically a relaunch of the WiiU marketing wise is going to look very attractive to the broader demographic.

My gut tells me Sony is going to shoot themselves in the foot with price again...
 
I've been saying this several times, but basically the price ceiling for any new console is the cheapest iOS device that's not the iPod Touch (since Apple seems to have forgotten it exists). Best case scenario, it should also be cheaper than the cheapest Nexus or Kindle Fire tablet. Why tablets? Because that's what the target market has bought to play games on in the last 24 months. Certainly, the only new gen console to have managed to become cheaper than the iPad Mini (the 3DS) has had a decent Christmas sales-wise, which is more than can be said about everything else.

Not possible. The cheapest Kindle Fire is $160. The cheapest Nexus Tablet is $199. Meanwhile the cheapest iPad Mini is $330. Even the 360 as it is can only match the Nexus's lowest price point and the Wii U is already cheaper than the iPad Mini.
 
So long as Microsoft is committed to making the next Xbox a success, it'll be a success, come hell or high water.

They've found their niche, for better or worse: a convergence device that plays movies and music, and will even play games if you'd like! Kinect'll be back and better. Kids games and fitness apps, too. No more fucking around about locking down out the internet...IE will feature prominently from the start. Xbox Live continues, but online gaming goes free, and Gold means streaming games, movies, and other exclusives. More Halo, more Crackdown, more Gears, more Forza, and a couple of other fan-favorite IPs return as well. MS locks down several exclusive (or timed exclusive) 3rd party titles, and sells an entry level package at $399.99...along with a premium featuring increased storage and other goodies.

They'll do some fucked up marketing bullshit that'll have us all scratching our heads, but overall, their marketing blitz will be highly effective.

So long as Microsoft wants it, it's theirs to take. The console will sell extremely well.
 
My wife did not grow up playing games, but she's hopelessly addicted to Scribblenauts. It's available on PC, but the gamepad is really convenient and intuitive to play it with.

I cannot get into that game at all, i start it and get bored so easily :/

I tried Super Scribblenauts and didn't have that issue for the period i played it for but Unlimited just feels so bland for me.
 
There's rumors sony has it's own Wii U-like gamepad so it could definitely seeing it go PS4 if that's the case.

Price could be a major factor. Nintendo spend a lot of R&D money on the gamepad and it's literally half the cost of a Wii U it would seem. Sony going with a beefier console and a gamepad style controller would make the cost of the console totally outside what the market will bear.
 
Wii U had what, 3 games you couldn't get elsewhere? One of which will mostly go mutli-plat to recoup costs. And then a handful of overpriced, underperforming ports of games released months to a year earlier. If that's what you're expecting from the next consoles, I think we'll all be happy when you're proven wrong. And even if the worst case scenario does happen and we do get that, at least the ports wont be old, nor will they be of lesser quality than their 360/PS3 brethren.
3 1st party, 2 3rd party and a couple eShop titles. I doubt ZombiU goes multi though (why bother?), and I also doubt it's going to lose money.

There'll be an incentive for getting Durangorbis ports that Wii U didn't have (graphics) but it's still going to be portmania and rest on 1st party shoulders for anything different. Not exactly dissimilar to Wii U (or PS3, or 360, or Xbox, or Gamecube, or ...).


I get the impression that people think that because the Wii U struggled that everything else will to. Fortunately not every company will release a new console as meekly as Nintendo did.
Well, personally I'm also considering how 360 and PS3 struggled. Why would you expect much different for Durango or Orbis?
 
Like Red Steel 1 and 2 did?

Red Steel 1 and 2 weren't well received. Zombi U gets a lot of love from gamers.

Well, personally I'm also considering how 360 and PS3 struggled. Why would you expect much different for Durango or Orbis?

Based on nothing but how long this current gen has dragged on and how much anticipation there is for new consoles with more power. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't think the Wii U struggled because people simply had no cash to spend on gaming. Underpowered and underwhelming with a terrible (and almost non-existant) marketing campaign. I get the impression that Nintendo thought they could simply put it out and it would sell out everywhere. That's the only way I can explain their inept marketing.
 
Here are some economics.

1. Europe is fucked. The market is going to have less of an impact on the future of consoles over the next decade then it ever has, in the history of gaming. Every country owes every other country money. Well, except Germany and England. However, to pay back Germany in England, all the other European countries need to get the money they lent back from the other country which is in debt as much or more than the first country. Meaning Germany and England will never get their money back. Don Drummond said the only way for Europe to get it self out of this hole, it to cut all wadges in effected countries by 50 percent across the board. This won't happen. Meaning they all must default. If they default, Germany and England then become broke because so much of their inherent wealth is tied up in assets such as loans. Meaning, nobody is going to go out and drop $400 on a console any time soon. As the decade moves forward, this issue will only get worse. Why? because they have not in-acted any of these measures yet to stabilize the European economy. So, peoples pocket books, outside of Greece and Spain have yet to be hit. Believe you me, it's coming, and it will be coming this year. Which is why banks like TD are getting ready for it now.

2. Since Europe is largely fucked, lets take a look at Asia. Well, everyone in Asia hates everyone else. Japan is gearing up for war with China, and China doesn't buy consoles. Japan also has no money, and is going to have to take measures to fix their economy as well. I mean, they barely give a shit about consoles as it stands, when their paychecks begin to go down, and they begin firing people to keep margins at an acceptable level, they will give a fuck even less about consoles.

3. This leaves us with North America. Where, although bad, Americans economy is a hell of a lot more pretty when it comes to a supply/demand curve then anything else in the world. Canada is fine, Canadians are always fine. So, what is the most popular console with core gamers, and parents of core gamers in North America? Thats right, Xbox 360. So on the one continent where sales are going to matter most this coming decade, Xbox already has a larger presence, and already sells more games then anything else.

4. So now, what is in Microsoft's best economic interest. It's to push their console. Now this is where the marketing comes in. Since economically, it makes sense to squeeze what they can out of Europe, and tell marketing to shove Xbox 720 down the throats of North Americans. North Americans can afford it, their buying more goods then every before, each Christmas since 2008 sales have been going up, the unemployment rating is dropping, and the next Xbox will be able to replace many different items in the hosehold. Making the average person more likely to buy one then 3 separate items. Now you takes these factors, of course in significantly more depth. Find what you feel the demand is, talk to your manufacturing partners and estimate what you can supply, plot these points, and find out a price point. All signs point to, not a Wii U failure.

you must be from the future! you should try harder because i think you can pull more from where this came from!
 
I cannot get into that game at all, i start it and get bored so easily :/

I tried Super Scribblenauts and didn't have that issue for the period i played it for but Unlimited just feels so bland for me.

Yeah, I like it, but I'm not insane about it like she is. Different strokes I guess. That's why predicting these console sales is so difficult. It always comes down to software and what catches fire with people that don't ordinarily spend a lot of money on games.
 
Red Steel 1 and 2 weren't well received. Zombi U gets a lot of love from gamers.

Your joking right, Red Steel 1 yes but Red Steel 2 was definitely well received.

It was unfortunately kneecapped by the fact that Red Steel 1 had already tarnished the series name.
 
I think if Microsoft advertises and shows the durango as being a significant improvement where people will recognize it and not confuse it for an accessory for the current xbox, they will sell. It may not sell as well as expected but better than wii u.

I think wii u just had very poor marketing and didn't really set itself apart from its predecessor (at least not with nsmbu and using the old controllers in commercials). Many people thought it was an accessory they didn't need for a console they don't play anymore.
 
Well I don't think Durango or Orbis will have an ASP of ~$550 for one thing...

I could easily see $399 or more depending on what is bundled in. It's a lot to ask from people during this economy. It seems a lot of prognosticators fail to factor in how many people don't have jobs compared to the best years of the previous generation of consoles.
 
Neither did 360.
It had shortages and horrible press around build quality though. Although those could be repeated.

Did my eyes deceive me or did you also write PS3? Well, there's a very clear reason why the PS3 struggled and presumably these new systems won't encounter that same barrier at least.
 
Based on nothing but how long this current gen has dragged on and how much anticipation there is for new consoles with more power. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't think the Wii U struggled because people simply had no cash to spend on gaming. Underpowered and underwhelming with a terrible (and almost non-existant) marketing campaign. I get the impression that Nintendo thought they could simply put it out and it would sell out everywhere. That's the only way I can explain their inept marketing.
I think you're right on Wii U's issues, and some of them definitely won't be repeated for Durango and Orbis. They'll have new issues though (direct competition launching, weak selling 1st party brands, higher pricepoints, possible supply constraints, etc). I won't be at all surprised if both move less in 2013 than Wii U did in 2012.
 
Metacritic disagrees.

Red Steel: 63
Red Steel 2: 80
ZombiU: 77

Based on Sales, RS2 simply wasn't received. The difference in game reaction to Red Steel 1 and ZombiU is drastically different. Like I said, it was just a guess that they'd try to recoup costs knowing that their game was well received. Maybe they'll just eat the losses. I also expect the same from Legends.
 
3 1st party, 2 3rd party and a couple eShop titles. I doubt ZombiU goes multi though (why bother?), and I also doubt it's going to lose money.

There'll be an incentive for getting Durangorbis ports that Wii U didn't have (graphics) but it's still going to be portmania and rest on 1st party shoulders for anything different. Not exactly dissimilar to Wii U (or PS3, or 360, or Xbox, or Gamecube, or ...).

Well, personally I'm also considering how 360 and PS3 struggled. Why would you expect much different for Durango or Orbis?

portmania is where people want to live though. The WiiU will only ever be good for the handful of nintendo games that come out each year and that's it. The next xbox and playstation will get everything from every third party. The biggest games of the year will be on them.

It's then down to which is more appealing to you with first party, online ecosystem, price, or whatever your friends have.
 
It had shortages and horrible press around build quality though. Although those could be repeated.

Did my eyes deceive me or did you also write PS3? Well, there's a very clear reason why the PS3 struggled and presumably these new systems won't encounter that same barrier at least.
I did also write PS3. I was just pointing out I also wrote 360, since you failed to address it.

Yes, their tard packs will be a whole $100 cheaper. PS3 had problems beyond just $599 though.
 
portmania is where people want to live though. The WiiU will only ever be good for the handful of nintendo games that come out each year and that's it. The next xbox and playstation will get everything from every third party. The biggest games of the year will be on them.

It's then down to which is more appealing to you with first party, online ecosystem, price, or whatever your friends have.

What about indie support?
 
Based on Sales, RS2 simply wasn't received. The difference in game reaction to Red Steel 1 and ZombiU is drastically different. Like I said, it was just a guess that they'd try to recoup costs knowing that their game was well received. Maybe they'll just eat the losses. I also expect the same from Legends.

What losses?

It's not like it's a AAA budget title, it's a mid to low budget game.

Ubisoft has not come out and said the game is selling badly.

The game's producer said he is pleased with how the game is selling, saying it is "among the best selling launch titles on Wii U"

RS2's bad sales are mainly due to the bad taste RS1 left in people's mouths, also it was massively pirated. Over 850,000 pirated copies of the game, combined with it's actual sales puts it over the 1 or so million RS1 sold.
 
portmania is where people want to live though. The WiiU will only ever be good for the handful of nintendo games that come out each year and that's it. The next xbox and playstation will get everything from every third party. The biggest games of the year will be on them.

It's then down to which is more appealing to you with first party, online ecosystem, price, or whatever your friends have.
I don't know about big AAA games. But Wii U eShop looking to become a nice place for indie games.
 
Based on Sales, RS2 simply wasn't received. The difference in game reaction to Red Steel 1 and ZombiU is drastically different. Like I said, it was just a guess that they'd try to recoup costs knowing that their game was well received. Maybe they'll just eat the losses. I also expect the same from Legends.
Red Steel 2 sold more it's first NPD than ZombiU, both were only out a week and that was March versus November. You're really striking out here Sam.

I bet Legends outsells Origins though. At least pre-price collapse.
 
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