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[Baconsammy]

Red Steel 2 sold more it's first NPD than ZombiU, both were only out a week and that was March versus November. You're really striking out here Sam.

I bet Legends outsells Origins though. At least pre-price collapse.

You mean a game on a console with an infinitely larger install base sold more than a game on a brand new console? I'm shocked. =) And your bet is that Legends on Wii U alone will outsell Origins multi-console? I'll gladly take that bet.

 

[Fox Mulder]

I don't know about big AAA games. But Wii U eShop looking to become a nice place for indie games.

I hope it does, I'd be fine with my WiiU being a great VC, indie, and Nintendo first party machine. I'm still a bit hesitant to spend lots of money on their network until they clear up the account management stuff.

You mean a game on a console with an infinitely larger install base sold more than a game on a brand new console? I'm shocked. =) And your bet is that Legends on Wii U alone will outsell Origins multi-console? I'll gladly take that bet.

Origins bombed and Legends is coming out on a console starved for great games. So knows how much it sells, but it will t lease a higher profile release, unless Nintendo people just want Mario platformers.

 

[Duxxy3]

Nope.

 

[scytheavatar]

Wii U struggled primary because Nintendo doesn't give a damn, screwed up the launch, failed to sell the touch screen controller which has a lot more potential than Nintendo realized and have a barren landscape of games ahead. It won't be hard for Microsoft and Sony to make their consoles more appealing.

 

[ffdgh]

They could but they probably won't.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I did also write PS3. I was just pointing out I also wrote 360, since you failed to address it.

Yes, their tard packs will be a whole $100 cheaper. PS3 had problems beyond just $599 though.

I don't dispute that it did.

But "Oh well, PS3 and 360 struggled too. Just like Wii U. => Durango and Orbis will also launch crappily." seems like an oversimplification to me.

Each launch had their own set of issues.

XBOX was never viable in Japan and had low mindshare in Europe. As already noted, it still had shortages. And it had the RROD fiasco.

The PS3 had a ridiculous price, failed to live up to the pre-launch hype, launched late in Europe, launched behind its primary competitor and had "No Gamez."

While the Wii U, as already noted, offers no discernible improvement over the prior generation, beyond a USP which seemingly isn't sufficient to sell the system to the market that made its predecessor a success.

It's too soon to tell which of these issues either next console launch will encounter.

----
Also with regard to the bolded, are you suggesting that Durango and Orbis will launch with a "tard pack" at $450 and consequently a fully featured model at or north of $550. If so... on what basis?

 

[Diddy Kong]

Yes. And they probably will. Unless one or both are revolutionary. And I don't quite see the tech out there for that yet.

this

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

You mean a game on a console with an infinitely larger install base sold more than a game on a brand new console? I'm shocked. =) And your bet is that Legends on Wii U alone will outsell Origins multi-console? I'll gladly take that bet.

Well, ZombiU did do better it's second month. Thanks Christmas.

And I don't think you understand just how hard Origins bombed upfront. Like 50k on all platforms combined it's first NPD, and even then it sold the most on Wii. It's (sadly) a pathetically low bar for Legends to pass, which I also expect to sell pretty terrible really. Legends at least has launch drought to push it higher though.

 

[BlackJace]

Well, ZombiU did do better it's second month. Thanks Christmas.

And I don't think you understand just how hard Origins bombed upfront. Like 50k on all platforms combined it's first NPD, and even then it sold the most on Wii. It's (sadly) a pathetically low bar for Legends to pass, which I also expect to sell pretty terrible really. Legends at least has launch drought to push it higher though.

Origins was largely profitable for Ubisoft.

 

[Effect]

Based on Sales, RS2 simply wasn't received. The difference in game reaction to Red Steel 1 and ZombiU is drastically different. Like I said, it was just a guess that they'd try to recoup costs knowing that their game was well received. Maybe they'll just eat the losses. I also expect the same from Legends.

Of the two Rayman Legends is the one I could see getting ported to other systems if Ubisoft wanted to get more money. There would likely have to be less to do in order to make it work without the gamepad. With ZombiU a significant part of it's charm and enjoyment is how you use the gamepad.

 

[Schnozberry]

Wii U struggled primary because Nintendo doesn't give a damn, screwed up the launch, failed to sell the touch screen controller which has a lot more potential than Nintendo realized and have a barren landscape of games ahead. It won't be hard for Microsoft and Sony to make their consoles more appealing.

It hasn't really struggled compared to other launches. It has struggled against the bar Nintendo set for themselves with the Wii, but even Iwata has acknowledged that the Wii was an atypical situation. They caught lightning in a bottle.

I do agree and think Nintendo's marketing has been a huge failure, but with a year head start they have some time to fix that. If the Wii U has another big coming out party with some great exclusive games and maybe a price drop, they could still be very competitive when Durango and Orbis launch. It all depends on software and price.

 

[unaveragekid2]

They'll probably struggle like the Wii U on the mass market, but the core gamers will at least be there. Core gamers aren't trying to help the Wii U; it seems like a lot don't care/actually want it to die.

 

[BlackJace]

They'll probably struggle like the Wii U on the mass market, but the core gamers will at least be there. Core gamers aren't trying to help the Wii U; it seems like a lot don't care/actually want it to die.

It's a vocal minority. There are some that are disappointed in it, very few are actually weird enough to want it to die.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I don't dispute that it did.

But "Oh well, PS3 and 360 struggled too. Just like Wii U. => Durango and Orbis will also launch crappily." seems like an oversimplification to me.

Each launch had their own set of issues.

XBOX was never viable in Japan and had low mindshare in Europe. As already noted, it still had shortages. And it had the RROD fiasco.

The PS3 had a ridiculous price, failed to live up to the pre-launch hype, launched late in Europe, launched behind its primary competitor and had "No Gamez."

While the Wii U, as already noted, offers no discernible improvement over the prior generation, beyond a USP which seemingly isn't sufficient to sell the system to the market that made its predecessor a success.

It's too soon to tell which of these issues either next console launch will encounter.

Well, if you look at my other responses to Sammy, you'll see I highlighted a few possibilities I see potentially hurting Durango and/or Orbis upfront. Launching at higher pricpoints than every console but PS3, launching with mostly derivative 3rd party lineups, launching directly against each other, weaker selling 1st party brands, etc. Some of these have been shared by other consoles and some haven't. Wii U probably sold through about 2.1m worldwide in 2012, that's not exactly an easy figure to hit in your first 4-5 weeks looking at the past decade and I could easily see MS and Sony failing to do so for plenty of reasons.

Also, RROD wasn't a real issue at 360 launch. That came later.

----
Also with regard to the bolded, are you suggesting that Durango and Orbis will launch with a "tard pack" at $450 and consequently a fully featured model at or near $599. If so... on what basis?

$399 is what I'm expecting for the floor based on everything we know. Bar a potential subscrption scheme from Microsoft, but I think that's a less likely scenario for launch.

 

[Schnozberry]

They'll probably struggle like the Wii U on the mass market, but the core gamers will at least be there. Core gamers aren't trying to help the Wii U; it seems like a lot don't care/actually want it to die.

A lot of people on here really seem to want it to die. I don't get it, really. It's a lot of solipsism. More options are always better for gamers. I want all the consoles to succeed.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Of course they could.

They could also explode out of the gate.

Not many could predict that the Wii would go three years eclipsing by a metric fuckton any other generations market leader. It did.

So anything can happen. We could be looking at a hugely depressed market, or the single largest jump of any generation. Won't know until it comes to pass but until it happens either option success or failure is there.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm sure they'll see issues, I don't think they'll necessarily set the world on fire either - but I don't think the Wii U's current predicament is a precursor to their failings.

Wii U probably sold through about 2.1m worldwide in 2012

I thought we were at sub-2M estimates...

$399 is what I'm expecting for the floor based on everything we know. Bar a potential subscrption scheme from Microsoft, but I think that's a less likely scenario for launch.

$399-$450 is the ceiling based on market realities. And I don't see anything exotic about Microsoft's offering that would push the price particularly high. Even Sony's which nominally has higher specs isn't anything exotic.

I think the Wii U's price (which I consider overpriced) has distorted price expectations.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Origins was largely profitable for Ubisoft.

Sure, because (1) it was crazy cheap to make and (2) it set a landspeed record for hitting the bargain bin and eventually shifted a good amount if those copies clogging shelves. I think Legends will be the same story more or less, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it ported everywhere too.

 

[ugoo18]

I'm sure they'll see issues, I don't think they'll necessarily set the world on fire either - but I don't think the Wii U's current predicament is a precursor to their failints/I thought we were at sub-2M estimates...
$399-$450 is the ceiling based on market realities. And I don't see anything exotic about Microsoft's offering that would push the price particularly high.

I think the Wii U's price (which I consider overpriced) has distorted price expectations.

Nope last i heard of it's sales it was sitting at 2.2 million (That was in under the first 2 or so months).

 

[DjRoomba]

No.
They will be out of the gate perfect consoles

 

[shinra-bansho]

Nope last i heard of it's sales it was sitting at 2.2 million (That was in under the first 2 or so months).

Let me guess where you got your numberzzzzzzzz.

 

[richiek]

Most likely yes, especially if the price is high or the library is slim.

 

[Kajigger]

Yep. I'm going to say that it all depends on the price. Thy aren't going to groundbreaking, so the price has to be right.

 

[Hattori]

I'm sure they'll see issues, I don't think they'll necessarily set the world on fire either - but I don't think the Wii U's current predicament is a precursor to their failings.I thought we were at sub-2M estimates...
$399-$450 is the ceiling based on market realities. And I don't see anything exotic about Microsoft's offering that would push the price particularly high. Even Sony's which nominally has higher specs isn't anything exotic.

I think the Wii U's price (which I consider overpriced) has distorted price expectations.

God I hope you're prediction is correct, $399 is a really sweet spot for me

 

[Kai Dracon]

I will say this at least.

There's more chance for PS4 to struggle than 720, and it has little to do with games and lauch line-ups.

Rather, it's due to Microsoft being one hell of a marketing machine when they put their back, and their unlimited bank account, into it.

Those motherf**kers made 8 million Kinects fly off the shelves predicated on not having (nearly) any great software, and they did it by making Kinect seem like the future of life on Earth.

If Microsoft decides that Durango must launch like an atomic bomb going off, god help us all. You'll be able to see the campaign from the moon.

Hell, the campaign may involve ad copy on the moon.

 

[ugoo18]

Let me guess where you got your numberzzzzzzzz.

lol last NPD numbers for the US i remember were in December which put the system at 890,000 in the US so 2.2 million worldwide is not impossible.

EDIT: Media Create numbers in January (up till the 13th) puts it at 715,000 in Japan so it's at the very least hit if not surpassed that 2.2 million.

 

[schuelma]

Let me guess where you got your numberzzzzzzzz.

Well, it's at 1.6 million in just the U.S and Japan- seems pretty likely it's over 2 million with the other territories.

 

[nhlducks35]

The Xbox 360 was $299 and $399, why should this one be more expensive?

 

[AzaK]

We all know they could but they're about a year away so we'll have to wait to see how the economy goes and what they're priced at.

If they hit 400 or sub, the economy is OK then I think they'll have a great initial start; better than Wii U due to them actually being noticeable improvements to the enthusiast. Not sure how they will attract the mainstream though. Unless MS do something mental like a super subsidised box through TV providers I'm not sure if TViiiii functionality is enough.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I'm sure they'll see issues, I don't think they'll necessarily set the world on fire either - but I don't think the Wii U's current predicament is a precursor to their failings.

I don't necessairly think so either, but I'm also aware of how launches tend to go. I'm curious what GAF reaction wil be when they sell less though.

I thought we were at sub-2M estimates...

I've yet see a sub 2m estimate accounting for worldwide. It's possible I guess, but exceedingly unlikely. Even my 2.1m might be a little conservative (1m Americas, 700k Japan, 400k Other).

$399-$450 is the ceiling based on market realities. And I don't see anything exotic about Microsoft's offering that would push the price particularly high. Even Sony's which nominally has higher specs isn't anything exotic.

I think the Wii U's price (which I consider overpriced) has distorted price expectations.

So you really think $450's the ceiling then? I think so too.

Microsoft will be pushed up by Kinect 2 in every box, Sony by their own financial realities. I also think we're going to see a Wii U pricecut (maybe $50, or some SKU rejiggering) before they launch.

 

[quest]

Atleast 1 of them will succeed out of the gate. There is a ton of pent up demand from core gamers for a new generation. Atleast 1 will get it right on price 399.00 or less SKU and games atleast 2 first/second party AAA gmes. The reason the Wii U failed is it failed to get core gamers or casuals it only got hard core nintendo fans.

 

[quest]

The Xbox 360 was $299 and $399, why should this one be more expensive?

Kinect in every box will be the biggest reason and MS won't sell for much of a loss this time around. We seen what they are charging for 7-8 year old system to make cash.

 

[Tmdean]

I will say this at least.

There's more chance for PS4 to struggle than 720, and it has little to do with games and lauch line-ups.

Rather, it's due to Microsoft being one hell of a marketing machine when they put their back, and their unlimited bank account, into it.

Those motherf**kers made 8 million Kinects fly off the shelves predicated on not having (nearly) any great software, and they did it by making Kinect seem like the future of life on Earth.

If Microsoft decides that Durango must launch like an atomic bomb going off, god help us all. You'll be able to see the campaign from the moon.

Hell, the campaign may involve ad copy on the moon.

Seems like we're experiencing a preview of that with the Surface. How is that doing, anyway? (I honestly don't know)

 

[shinra-bansho]

lol last NPD numbers for the US i remember were in December which put the system at 890,000 in the US so 2.2 million worldwide is not impossible.

EDIT: Media Create numbers in January (up till the 13th) puts it at 715,000 in Japan so it's at the very least hit if not surpassed that 2.2 million.

We were, afaict, referring to 2012 sales, ergo, 890K+630K = 1.53M.

670K for PAL doesn't seem likely considering the lack of reception in Europe.

I don't necessairly think so either, but I'm also aware of how launches tend to go. I'm curious what GAF reaction wil be when they sell less though.

I've yet see a sub 2m estimate accounting for worldwide. It's possible I guess, but exceedingly unlikely. Even my 2.1m might be a little conservative (1m Americas, 700k Japan, 400k Other).

So you really think $450's the ceiling then? I think so too.

Microsoft will be pushed up by Kinect 2 in every box, Sony by their own financial realities. I also think we're going to see a Wii U pricecut (maybe $50, or some SKU rejiggering) before they launch.

Oh, I thought we were just referring to 2012 sales.

I'd say $450 is the absolute ceiling - above that would be utter stupidity on either MS or Sony's parts given the precedent. I'm still optimistic for $399 ceiling for both.

 

[Can Crusher]

Well there are millions and millions of core gamers out there waiting for Orbis and Durango. I don't see how they will struggle like the Wii U

 

[Admiral Bone to Pick]

The Wii U is struggling because:

1. It is coming off of the back of a console which has seen sparse releases and declining sales over the last several years.

2. The combination of the tablet controller and Wiimote has confused consumers and has still not been clearly explained to the average casual gamer. The Wiimote was a simple concept with broad appeal. The Wii U does not have the same advantage.

3. Nintendo hasn't been doing a good job emphasizing new features such as improved graphics and media features. It doesn't yet have a graphical standout game like Gears of War or Uncharted to establish it as a next generation system.

4. Most of all, it still lacks a breakout casual hit. The Wii achieved breakout success through the Wii series, with games like Wii Sports, Wii Play, and Wii Fit. The DS had similar mainstream success with titles like Nintendogs and Brain Training. The Wii U currently lacks titles like these with broad appeal. Nintendo Land is an attempt at this, but it is only bundled with the more costly premium bundle and hasn't had the same level of broad appeal as Wii Sports so far.

With that in mind, it's difficult to say if the 720/PS4 will experience similar problems. Point by point, their predecessors are currently selling well at this point in the generation and we don't know enough about their features/controllers to make a sound judgment on their popular appeal. Both systems will likely be able to appeal to their existing core crowd. Microsoft will continue to appeal to the casual market with an upgraded Kinect/XBLA combination, but it remains to be seen what Sony will do. Personally, I predict that the 720/PS4 will sell more than their predecessors, and the Wii U has a good chance if it can achieve some breakout titles and continue that momentum into the latter half of the 8th generation.

 

[unaveragekid2]

It's a vocal minority. There are some that are disappointed in it, very few are actually weird enough to want it to die.

A lot of people on here really seem to want it to die. I don't get it, really. It's a lot of solipsism. More options are always better for gamers. I want all the consoles to succeed.

I like having three console manufacturers, and Nintendo really keeps Microsoft and Sony on their toes. I don't know why anybody would wish death on a company as innovative as Nintendo.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

We were, afaict, referring to 2012 sales, ergo, 890K+630K = 1.53M.

670K for PAL doesn't seem likely considering the lack of reception in Europe.

Oh, I thought we were just referring to 2012 sales.

I'd say $450 is the absolute ceiling - above that would be utter stupidity on either MS or Sony's parts given the precedent. I'm still optimistic for $399 ceiling for both.

I was indeed referring to 2012, though I was using Garaph but forgot going to the 31st would include some January days. 709k Famitsu, but 638k if we stop the previous week.

You'll also need to account for more than just the US 890k for America
(for example Canada tends to be 8-10% of US sales on average, and it's one of Nintendo's strongest markets historically). Likewise there's more to "Other" than just Europe, or just PAL even. I think all my estimates are probably pretty safe though.

 

[BlackJace]

Well there are millions and millions of core gamers out there waiting for Orbis and Durango.

I hate when people say this, as there is no evidence of this. Especially your use of millions.

 

[TheMax]

Well yeah they most likely will but after some time it will pick up.

 

[Sandfox]

Origins was largely profitable for Ubisoft.

After it reached bomba prices. IIRC the game was meant to be an episodic DL only title so it more than likely had a small budget as well.

 

[biggersmaller]

Nobody knows enough about them to accurately make a prediction that would be anything but a wild guess.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I think they certainly could struggle, if that's all we are focusing on. However, I also think one or both could get off to a really strong start. I think the biggest question mark is whether or not software is ready to sell the hardware. Because I think we're past the point of promising Toy Story graphics and getting people on the hype train without delivering.

So, launch with technological improvements, software that demonstrates that, a competitive price, and availability to meet demand, and I think we're in for a good holiday launch. But launch with something overpriced and up ports of 360 stuff -- combined with Nintendo having a few of their big guns ready for Christmas -- and I certainly think we could see a slow start for either or both of the new consoles.

 

[Meelow]

I will say this at least.

There's more chance for PS4 to struggle than 720, and it has little to do with games and lauch line-ups.

Rather, it's due to Microsoft being one hell of a marketing machine when they put their back, and their unlimited bank account, into it.

Those motherf**kers made 8 million Kinects fly off the shelves predicated on not having (nearly) any great software, and they did it by making Kinect seem like the future of life on Earth.

If Microsoft decides that Durango must launch like an atomic bomb going off, god help us all. You'll be able to see the campaign from the moon.

Hell, the campaign may involve ad copy on the moon.

I agree, and that's what I think when people say they want the PS4 to launch the same time as 720, I think that would be a mistake, Microsoft would be going all out bigger than Nintendo and Sony at marketing. Microsoft would make the PS4 look like it's just a thing and they will make the 720 "that system you must have"

Sony has to think carefully about this.

 

[Dion Blaster]

Other than the lack of power, I think a lot of the Wii U's problems are fixable. Lack of killer apps (they will come) and terrible marketing (idk about this one). Oh and the price is guaranteed to be lower once the competition is out right? I imagine some combination of those 3 would give it a nice boost.

 

[darkistheway]

I hate when people say this, as there is no evidence of this. Especially your use of millions.

I agree, both the PS3 and 360 have taken a long time to reach the numbers they have. And those numbers are mediocre.

No doubt each system will have a decent launch but to think either is going to sell millions right away is wishful thinking.

 

[hachi]

In Japan, they will struggle even more than Wii U.

That's a given with the Xbox, but it's also likely to befall the PS4.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Other than the lack of power, I think a lot of the Wii U's problems are fixable. Lack of killer apps (they will come) and terrible marketing (idk about this one). Oh and the price is guaranteed to be lower once the competition is out right? I imagine some combination of those 3 would give it a nice boost.

Price and software are fixable. Marketing? Yeah, I'm skeptical. The hardware is out there for people to gauge themselves. I don't know if a clever marketing campaign is going to meaningfully sell people on the GamePad, and the hardware is what it is.

 

[Dion Blaster]

Price and software are fixable. Marketing? Yeah, I'm skeptical. The hardware is out there for people to gauge themselves. I don't know if a clever marketing campaign is going to meaningfully sell people on the GamePad, and the hardware is what it is.

Not just the quality of the commercials (which do need to be improved) but just the lack of any sort of presence. I haven't seen a Wii U commercial this year, and I watch a decent amount of TV. Not a lot of people seem to know about it at all.

 

[quest]

I agree, and that's what I think when people say they want the PS4 to launch the same time as 720, I think that would be a mistake, Microsoft would be going all out bigger than Nintendo and Sony at marketing. Microsoft would make the PS4 look like it's just a thing and they will make the 720 "that system you must have"

Sony has to think carefully about this.

There is no choice but to launch this fall. The other option is to give Nintendo a 2 year head start and MS a year head start. Not going to work this gen has ran out of steam and it is time to move on. All the MS ads will help alll 3 since it will let consumers know it is the start of a new generation.