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[SF Kosmo]

Depends on how you define "force." Maybe not holding people down to "jab" them quite yet, but there are definitely folks in here salivating at the idea of increased coercion.

You get how that's a different conversation from the one I am trying to have with you, though, right?

Is your reason for not wanting the vaccine actually rooted in health concerns about the long term effects? Or is it simply opposition to the forces that want you to do it? "You can't make me, I don't wanna."

Because I have been trying to have the former conversation with you and you keep pivoting to the latter.

 

[BouncyFrag]

Some of you are losing your fucking minds. Do you laugh when people who don’t wear sunscreen die of skin cancer?

About that...

Big Pharma is the Bond villain that will never die.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

No it's not beyond incredulous. Are you talking about Iceland? Iceland is one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, so it makes sense that as a larger share of the population get vaccinated, a larger share of them will become infected.

Fact Check-COVID-19 cases in Iceland are not proof that vaccines are ineffective

Rising COVID-19 cases in Iceland are not proof that vaccines are a “failure”, despite claims made online.

mobile.reuters.com

Furthermore, if we look at their data:

Data

Latest updates on confirmed infections, the number of people in quarantine or isolation, and more.

www.covid.is

We see that most of their cases are from vaccinated people. As the percentage of vaccinated people nears 100, so will the share of vaccinated breakthrough cases. At a certain point, it becomes hard to intuitively ascertain the significance of the numbers due to the unequal scaling.

So we normalize the data into a per capita configuration.

Here are the past 7 days of case numbers. 461 vaccinated citizens with infections divided by 255,322 vaccinated citizens total equals a per capita rate of 181. Do the same with the unvaccinated citizens, and they have a per capita infection rate of 280. There's a difference.

Add to that the fact that due to the age restrictions, most of the unvaccinated group are young people, who should be more resilient to the virus, yet they are contracting it in greater numbers.

Here's the breakdown (excluding those with just one shot) since their Delta outbreak began. Iceland population is 364,000. Fully vaccinated population is 255,000. Unvaccinated population is therefore 109,000 (20,000 or so of which have one shot, but for simplicity's sake, let's just say all 109,000 are unvaccinated).

1,386 / 255,000 * 100,000 = 543.
619 / 109,000 * 100,000 = 568.

Basically the same rate...

Looks like they've got some good data by age group, so maybe I'll try to break it down even further later unless you want to do that first.

 

[TheDreadBaron]

About that...

Big Pharma is the Bond villain that will never die.

Lol damn, what an amazingly timely story.

 

[FunkMiller]

That is still pretty awful from a human perspective. Unless you think the people saying these things are knowingly lying for money/clout. Otherwise, they’re being honest, they’re just mistaken. So if you’re happy wrong-but-honest people are dying, I think you’re being a fairly terrible human being yourself.

It all comes down to courses of action. If a person thinks a certain way, but is corrected and changes their opinion, then of course I feel no ill will towards them. We all make mistakes.

But if said person thinks a certain way, is told the facts by people who know better than them, refuses to believe those facts, and goes on to willfully and deliberately convince others over a long period of time that those facts are untrue, thereby endangering those people… sorry, my sympathy gland shrivels right up.

 

[RAÏSanÏa]

they’re being honest, they’re just mistaken. So if you’re happy wrong-but-honest people are dying, I think you’re being a fairly terrible human being yourself.

leave an opening for a surrounded enemy army - Sun Tzu Art of War

If the fight against Covid is a war might as well look at a book about it.

In outreach I think leaving this opening in reasoning is a good approach as commentaries on Sun Tzu describe that a surrounded enemy will fight to the last. While it is an ego issue, fuck it, let them change their mind and retain some dignity in their humility to change their minds.

 

[TheDreadBaron]

leave an opening for a surrounded enemy army - Sun Tzu Art of War

If the fight against Covid is a war might as well look at a book about it.

In outreach I think leaving this opening in reasoning is a good approach as commentaries on Sun Tzu describe that a surrounded enemy will fight to the last. While it is an ego issue, fuck it, let them change their mind and retain some dignity in their humility to change their minds.

Maybe the problem is framing people as the enemy rather than the virus?

 

[FunkMiller]

Maybe the problem is framing people as the enemy rather than the virus?

If the virus is the enemy, why are so set against the weapon that we have to fight it?

 

[RAÏSanÏa]

Maybe the problem is framing people as the enemy rather than the virus?

The enemy in my example is the mentality and what feeds it that keeps people from getting proper healthcare.

 

[DeepBreath87]

It all comes down to courses of action. If a person thinks a certain way, but is corrected and changes their opinion, then of course I feel no ill will towards them. We all make mistakes.

But if said person thinks a certain way, is told the facts by people who know better than them, refuses to believe those facts, and goes on to willfully and deliberately convince others over a long period of time that those facts are untrue, thereby endangering those people… sorry, my sympathy gland shrivels right up.

You can have sympathy for whoever you choose. But we should be awfully careful about being happy people die or saying the world is better off without them. That’s a dark thing to say. Maybe if I am a radical environmentalist, I think it’s better if you die because you’re a net negative for the planet.

All I am saying is, don’t be tap dance on people’s grave because they believe something different than you. Even if what they believe is wrong. Being decent is important. You want to use their death as a cautionary tale to help other people? Cool. If it’s just about pointing and laughing at a dead guy, it’s a sick mindset.

 

[FunkMiller]

You can have sympathy for whoever you choose. But we should be awfully careful about being happy people die or saying the world is better off without them. That’s a dark thing to say. Maybe if I am a radical environmentalist, I think it’s better if you die because you’re a net negative for the planet.

All I am saying is, don’t be tap dance on people’s grave because they believe something different than you. Even if what they believe is wrong. Being decent is important. You want to use their death as a cautionary tale to help other people? Cool. If it’s just about pointing and laughing at a dead guy, it’s a sick mindset.

So, you feel sympathy even for someone actively putting others lives at risk? What if they put someone you care about’s safety at risk with the misinformation they are spreading?
You have sympathy for the person causing harm, but not much for the people being harmed by them.
A line has to be drawn somewhere. Sympathy has to end for another human being at some point.
For me, that point is when they actively put other innocent people at risk. When the things they say and do harm or kill.
I don’t personally see anything decent in feeling sympathy for that kind of person.

(Also we’ve entered the realms of philosophical debate here. I don’t actually feel much urge to laugh at these cruel idiots, when their stupidity bites them on the arse. But neither do I feel much at their loss other than frustration that they are allowed to operate freely).

 

[DeepBreath87]

So, you feel sympathy even for someone actively putting others lives at risk? What if they put someone you care about’s safety at risk with the misinformation they are spreading?
You have sympathy for the person causing harm, but not much for the people being harmed by them.
A line has to be drawn somewhere. Sympathy has to end for another human being at some point.
For me, that point is when they actively put other innocent people at risk. When the things they say and do harm or kill.
I don’t personally see anything decent in feeling sympathy for that kind of person.

(Also we’ve entered the realms of philosophical debate here. I don’t actually feel much urge to laugh at these cruel idiots, when their stupidity bites them on the arse. But neither do I feel much at their loss other than frustration that they are allowed to operate freely).

There is a significant difference between someone who puts people at risk directly, like shooting a gun in direction of a crowd, and someone who puts others at risk by espousing bad ideas. The key difference is the person who is being “put at risk” has to receive and act on that bad information, at which time they are culpable for their own decision.

I draw a hard line between an honest person who gives bad advice and someone who knowingly lies. If I encourage someone to do something somewhat risky, like sky diving or scuba diving, and they die, is that significantly different from what we are talking about? At the end of the day, the people not getting the vaccine are responsible for themselves.

 

[12Goblins]

Maybe the problem is framing people as the enemy rather than the virus?

Big brain stuff right here, especially seeing that you called the pharmaceutical regulatory process the "villain" and that you've been incessantly undermining the people in charge of controlling the pandemic and pushing the vaccines as having nefarious intentions. The virus is definitely the enemy at play here, and you are doing nothing aside from being a giant fucking crutch. you think you are helping, but you are doing nothing except hurting your cause and your loved ones.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Cyberpunkd Any truth to this "pass sanitaire, s’il vous plaît?" inspection business? Just a staged video for demonstrative purposes or actually happening?

 

[Infiltrator Irelia]

Looking forward to the day when society eschews the anti vax movement and gives them the choice of getting vaccinated or being shunned from public society until they are vaccinated. It is going to be a wonderful day that puts civilization on the right path to returning to normalcy, as close as we can get to it.

 

[Schattenjäger]

If people are concerned about the vaccines - they should defer to their provider and follow the doctors advice

 

[12Goblins]

Cyberpunkd Any truth to this "pass sanitaire, s’il vous plaît?" inspection business? Just a staged video for demonstrative purposes or actually happening?

definitely not the way to go IMO, but what if that's what Parisians want so that they can feel safe while dining out, etc?

Unlike the US if the French are unhappy with govt policies, they will make themselves heard and burn Paris down to the ground if they have to, without hesitation

 

[Jaysen]

Some of you are losing your fucking minds. Do you laugh when people who don’t wear sunscreen die of skin cancer? Do you talk about their family members feeling guilt for not encouraging them to wear it? Do they deserve what they get? You people are completely insane at this point. Have some fucking decency. It’s ridiculous.

Do those people use their platforms to try to stop people from protecting themselves from the dangers of direct sunlight? If so, I won’t shed a tear for them either.

 

[FunkMiller]

There is a significant difference between someone who puts people at risk directly, like shooting a gun in direction of a crowd, and someone who puts others at risk by espousing bad ideas. The key difference is the person who is being “put at risk” has to receive and act on that bad information, at which time they are culpable for their own decision.

I draw a hard line between an honest person who gives bad advice and someone who knowingly lies. If I encourage someone to do something somewhat risky, like sky diving or scuba diving, and they die, is that significantly different from what we are talking about? At the end of the day, the people not getting the vaccine are responsible for themselves.

Yeah, I can see the point of view you're coming from, and I guess our only real difference is where you draw that particular moral line. You would need someone to be actively, deliberately and knowingly lying to others for you to not have sympathy if they then die. Whereas I take exception to someone who refuses to believe facts when they are presented to them, and goes on to spread misinformation to others (and making out that those with better expertise, training and skill are the ones doing the lying), thereby endangering other people. Yes, there is schadenfraude when a charlatan falls prey to their own bullshit, I'm not denying that. But as stated, I feel tremendous sympathy for the people out there who are harmed and even killed, simply because they are more easily led, of lower intelligence, or do not have access to information sources that can tell them the truth. I suppose my sympathy for them utterly destroys any I might have for the person responsible for putting them in that position.

 

[Rock And Roll]

"I don't celebrate deaths but they're hurting people with misinformation and putting lives at risk".

You guys are so full of shit. Literally anyone who says something negative about the vaccine meets this criteria, so you get to apply this to every single case you read about then have a little circle jerk over the grave of someone's son/daughter/brother/sister/father/mother. That's the thing with narcissistic sociopaths, you think you're being so clever and fooling us but anyone who isn't insane sees through it.

Keep in mind that adults can make their own decisions too, which may be a shocking revelation. If someone wants to believe dumb shit they read online, that's on them, no one forces them to believe these things so they aren't "putting people's lives at risk". They made their decision and if it has fatal consequences, that's tragic and sad because it could have been avoided, not something to laugh at and justify with flimsy criteria.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Do those people use their platforms to try to stop people from protecting themselves from the dangers of direct sunlight? If so, I won’t shed a tear for them either.

There is a vast difference between not shedding a tear and purposefully being an asshole. Unsurprisingly you aren’t able to see the gradient between those two positions because your blinded by self righteousness. Who of the dead people you’ve been snickering about, besides the radio guy, had any platform? The lady with the dead parents? What was her platform? Maybe your idea of a platform is anyone with a fucking Facebook page, so you can justify your shitty behavior towards anyone.

I said it before and I’ll say it again, there are a lot of people who just want to treat other people like shit. And if they can latch on to some cause to feel good about themselves while they do it, all the better for them.

 

[Jaysen]

There is a vast difference between not shedding a tear and purposefully being an asshole. Unsurprisingly you aren’t able to see the gradient between those two positions because your blinded by self righteousness. Who of the dead people you’ve been snickering about, besides the radio guy, had any platform? The lady with the dead parents? What was her platform? Maybe your idea of a platform is anyone with a fucking Facebook page, so you can justify your shitty behavior towards anyone.

I said it before and I’ll say it again, there are a lot of people who just want to treat other people like shit. And if they can latch on to some cause to feel good about themselves while they do it, all the better for them.

Her platform is being someone in medicine telling people not to protect themselves from the very thing that then killed her parents. The people treating others like shit are the ones advising against the vaccine. Weird that you don’t see that. I wonder why.

 

[poppabk]

Here's the breakdown (excluding those with just one shot) since their Delta outbreak began. Iceland population is 364,000. Fully vaccinated population is 255,000. Unvaccinated population is therefore 109,000 (20,000 or so of which have one shot, but for simplicity's sake, let's just say all 109,000 are unvaccinated).

1,386 / 255,000 * 100,000 = 543.
619 / 109,000 * 100,000 = 568.

Basically the same rate...

Looks like they've got some good data by age group, so maybe I'll try to break it down even further later unless you want to do that first.

Interesting data, I am intrigued to see further breakdowns, however Iceland has done such a good job fighting this that the data for severe impacts are practically non-existent.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Her platform is being someone in medicine telling people not to protect themselves from the very thing that then killed her parents.

Whatever man. Keep making excuses. The woman’s parents are dead. Try looking at her like a human being, you prick.

 

[FunkMiller]

Interesting data, I am intrigued to see further breakdowns, however Iceland has done such a good job fighting this that the data for severe impacts are practically non-existent.

Yeah, but there's like, twelve of them, and they all eat piss covered rotten shark and goat balls. Covid had no chance.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Her platform is being someone in medicine telling people not to protect themselves from the very thing that then killed her parents. The people treating others like shit are the ones advising against the vaccine. Weird that you don’t see that. I wonder why.

You have no evidence of her telling anyone to not get vaccinated. Here is the relevant passage from the article, which I'm all but certain you didn't even read before jumping at the chance to celebrate the death of someone who disagrees with you.

While the number of Arkansans getting vaccinated in the last couple of weeks has risen, some say they will never be persuaded. Shanda Parish, a nurse who lives in the Fort Smith-Greenwood area, said she won’t get the shot, even after losing both her father and stepmother to the virus in recent weeks.

Robert and Vi Herring, both in their 70s, were lifelong residents of the area, married 34 years with five children between them. They didn’t like the idea of getting the vaccine, their children said. They became sick after attending a 52nd high school reunion and died within three days of each other at a Fort Smith hospital in late July.

Ms. Parish, who considered her father her hero, is devastated, she said, clinging to waves of numbness between grief and anger. The deaths have caused a rift within the family, whose children remain split on their views of the vaccine.

Ms. Parish said she still won’t get it; she simply doesn’t trust a newly created vaccine. She doesn’t regret that her parents didn’t get vaccinated, she said. It was their choice. Instead, she regrets that she was quarantining ahead of a cancer treatment when they fell ill and couldn’t be involved in pushing to get them hospitalized sooner.

Ms. Parish’s last interaction with her father was a voice mail from the hospital, of him moaning and gasping for breath. “It doesn’t even sound human,” she said. “I don’t like hearing it, but I can’t delete it.”

Since the Herrings died, Ms. Parish has felt judgment from friends and acquaintances asking why her parents weren’t vaccinated—why she didn’t make them get vaccinated.

“We didn’t kill them, but some people make us feel like it’s our fault they’re gone,” she said, crying. “No one should try to make you feel guilty because someone died.”

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Interesting data, I am intrigued to see further breakdowns, however Iceland has done such a good job fighting this that the data for severe impacts are practically non-existent.

Yeah, the absolute numbers are still so low, but it is worth noting that this current wave is peaking with at least 50% higher case numbers than their last wave. Hopefully this will follow the same pattern as the UK and not translate to massively increased deaths, considering their extremely high vaccination rate.

Still, even looking at the data from England, as of the most recent report, 16% of those who required emergency care for the Delta variant were fully vaccinated (50% were unvaccinated, 23% had 1 dose, and the remainder were of unknown status). Considering that the vaccines are estimated to prevent severe symptoms to a high degree, that would indicate that their share of infections is probably very high.

 

[Thaedolus]

 

[SF Kosmo]

Whatever man. Keep making excuses. The woman’s parents are dead. Try looking at her like a human being, you prick.

When someone does something bad and harms others, we want to see remorse. It's important. It's much easier to feel for someone who has made a mistake when they recognize and regret it. And when they don't it can become a lot harder.

I feel for a lot of people who have been misled by bad information. I feel less for people so mentally ill that they cannot acknowledge the reality that they are living in. When this woman says "It's not like I could have prevented this" when she clearly could have, it becomes more difficult to empathize with her, because she refused to be accountable for her mistake.

That said of course I feel bad for all those mourning the loss of these two people. I also empathize with the anger they must feel toward those that had every opportunity to protect them and failed to.

 

[DeepBreath87]

When someone does something bad and harms others, we want to see remorse. It's important. It's much easier to feel for someone who has made a mistake when they recognize and regret it. And when they don't it can become a lot harder.

I feel for a lot of people who have been misled by bad information. I feel less for people so mentally ill that they cannot acknowledge the reality that they are living in.

I do feel sad for these people's deaths and all those that are mourning them and I don't mean to be crass about it, but when this woman says "It's not like I could have prevented this" when she clearly could have, THAT is a pretty hard sentiment to empathize with.

So if she doesn’t accept responsibility for her parents choice not to get the vaccine and subsequent death, we don’t have to treat her with decency? Come on dude. This isn’t what we should be about at all.

 

[Thaedolus]

If people are concerned about the vaccines - they should defer to their provider and follow the doctors advice

95% of doctors have gotten the vaccine. Unless you have some underlying condition that makes vaccination unworkable, you can already guess what a doctor will say.

 

[FunkMiller]

So if she doesn’t accept responsibility for her parents choice not to get the vaccine and subsequent death, we don’t have to treat her with decency? Come on dude. This isn’t what we should be about at all.

Is she continuing to tell people not to get the vaccine, even though her parents died of Covid? Because, come on, that’s a cunt right there, if so. I don’t know how you can see it any differently.

 

[SF Kosmo]

So if she doesn’t accept responsibility for her parents choice not to get the vaccine and subsequent death, we don’t have to treat her with decency? Come on dude. This isn’t what we should be about at all.

We should treat everyone with decency. But we also have every right to be angry with her. She had every opportunity to prevent this and failed to do so, and failed to take accountability after.

She got people killed and isn't sorry. That's deserving of criticism, and hard to pity. I feel sad for the loss of life and those that are mourning these people but I think it's right to be angry at this asshole who refuses to learn from it and do better. We need to empathize with the victims too.

 

[Schattenjäger]

95% of doctors have gotten the vaccine. Unless you have some underlying condition that makes vaccination unworkable, you can already guess what a doctor will say.

I know - but doctors should be the authoritative voice here not Facebook

 

[Jaysen]

Whatever man. Keep making excuses. The woman’s parents are dead. Try looking at her like a human being, you prick.

Yeah, she got them killed by advising them to not get a free shot that would have saved them, but people who point out how fucking stupid she was are the bad guys. Ok chief,

 

[QSD]

It all comes down to courses of action. If a person thinks a certain way, but is corrected and changes their opinion, then of course I feel no ill will towards them. We all make mistakes.

But if said person thinks a certain way, is told the facts by people who know better than them, refuses to believe those facts, and goes on to willfully and deliberately convince others over a long period of time that those facts are untrue, thereby endangering those people… sorry, my sympathy gland shrivels right up.

You're being obtuse about what the actual issue is to keep up this gloating

If a person thinks a certain way and is 'corrected', a lot hinges on whether the correctee actually trusts the correcter and their relationship is solid. If you get corrected by someone you believe is full of shit, you're not going to lose any sleep over it right? Like I've argued many times before, the core issue here is trust , not bad info or social media. The problem you are completely failing to acknowledge is that it isn't at all that apparent to many people who is trustworthy in the current social climate. You might feel that it's obvious to trust the doctors, but that will not be as obvious to everyone.

So basically "anyone who mistrusts the people I trust is not worthy of sympathy". I'd say you have little more to fear for your sympathy gland, it seems thoroughly shriveled as it is.

 

[Infiltrator Irelia]

So if she doesn’t accept responsibility for her parents choice not to get the vaccine and subsequent death, we don’t have to treat her with decency? Come on dude. This isn’t what we should be about at all.

Anti vax do not deserve sympathy if they are pushing back at decent people who are doing nothing but trying to help them before it gets too the point where family members die.

We owe them nothing when they continue to push back even after. You don't get to turn around and WELL ACKSHYUALLY some dumb point about human decency when true human decency is taking a damn safe vaccine to prevent human suffering on a global scale. You don't get to tut-tut and finger wag at the people who have been trying to get through to these people with logic and reason.

The ironic thing is, in about a years time when things are even worse than they are now, many people are going to change their tune and start screaming at is "BUT I DIDN'T KNOW IT WOULD GET THIS BAD, NOBODY KNEW. IT'S NOT MY FAULT, NOBODY TOLD ME YOU NEED THE VACCINE".

In their eyes, out still won't be their fault that COVID will still be around and more dangerous.

 

[SF Kosmo]

So basically "anyone who mistrusts the people I trust is not worthy of sympathy". I'd say you have little more to fear for your sympathy gland, it seems thoroughly shriveled as it is.

Lots of people make mistakes. It's the lack of remorse or the ability to recognize the obvious facts of what happened even after the fact that makes it harder to sympathize, I think.

 

[poppabk]

Yeah, but there's like, twelve of them, and they all eat piss covered rotten shark and goat balls. Covid had no chance.

Still if the US was sitting at 30,000 total COVID deaths, and 70% vaccination rate I would be happy to call this thing definitely over.
Plus I assume mask mandates are a plus when people have been eating piss covered rotten shark.

 

[QSD]

Lots of people make mistakes. It's the lack of remorse or the ability to recognize the obvious facts of what happened even after the fact that makes it harder to sympathize, I think.

This is another reduction of the problem. If you're building a house and you make one of the beams 5" too short, that's what I would call a 'mistake'.
Deciding who is telling you the truth and who is manipulating or deceiving you in a complex, ever diversifying media landscape is a problem of an entirely different order, one that many (probably most) people are not equal to so they fall back on heuristics like tribal allegiances. You do so too, by going with the masses and claiming the solution is obvious. It's anything but... if it were obvious we wouldn't be in this situation in the first place.

 

[Jaysen]

This is another reduction of the problem. If you're building a house and you make one of the beams 5" too short, that's what I would call a 'mistake'.
Deciding who is telling you the truth and who is manipulating or deceiving you in a complex, ever diversifying media landscape is a problem of an entirely different order, one that many (probably most) people are not equal to so they fall back on heuristics like tribal allegiances. You do so too, by going with the masses and claiming the solution is obvious. It's anything but... if it were obvious we wouldn't be in this situation in the first place.

Choosing to believe idiots without degrees versus believing the vast majority of experts in the world telling you how important the vaccines are isn’t a mistake. Its a willful, and stupid, decision driven by an us versus them mentality.

 

[Rentahamster]

Here's the breakdown (excluding those with just one shot) since their Delta outbreak began. Iceland population is 364,000. Fully vaccinated population is 255,000. Unvaccinated population is therefore 109,000 (20,000 or so of which have one shot, but for simplicity's sake, let's just say all 109,000 are unvaccinated).

1,386 / 255,000 * 100,000 = 543.
619 / 109,000 * 100,000 = 568.

Basically the same rate...

I thought you preferred tighter time interval windows since so many variables change over a longer period of observation?

Anyway, as you can see by the chart, the trendline is heading towards vaccinated people being less of the share of infected.

What's going on in Iceland, Israel, the UK, and any other place with high levels of vaccination rates is the base rate bias.

Cognitive Biases Make Reasoning About Vaccines Difficult

Learn to watch out for cognitive biases when thinking about vaccines.

www.psychologytoday.com

Israel, 50% of infected are vaccinated, and base rate bias

Delta has arrived in Israel, and with its arrival, cases are increasing (albeit relatively small). And, this is expected. We’ve seen it in the UK. and India. and Indonesia. And South Africa. And Russia. No country is 100% vaccinated. And this coupled with Delta being

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Base rate bias

This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields). Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.

The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.


Cue Israel. They are one of the global leaders in vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:

• 100 adult community
• 4 COVID19 cases
• 50% of cases were among the vaccinated

It would look something like this:


With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.

Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.

More or Less - Jab fears explained: a base rate fallacy - BBC Sounds

Why increasing Covid infections amongst the vaccinated isn’t necessarily bad news.

www.bbc.co.uk

Looks like they've got some good data by age group, so maybe I'll try to break it down even further later unless you want to do that first.

Someone else already did. He eliminated the 16 and under group from consideration since they aren't even eligible for the vaccines and did an analysis with adults only.

Comparison of Covid cases in a country where almost 90% of the population is vaccinated

grid.is

Summary: In a population where a vast majority is vaccinated, looking at the number of Covid cases will provide a potentially misleading view of vaccine effectiveness against infections. The case rate provides a much more meaningful comparison.

The reason is that the share of the population that is vaccinated in Iceland is exceptionally high. In fact one of the highest in the world:

This causes a "denominator problem". Even at a fairly low rate of cases among the vaccinated group, the absolute number of cases is likely to be as high or higher than that among those not vaccinated. And the bigger the share of those vaccinated, the more it will skew a comparison of the raw case numbers.

There is a clear and significant difference in the case rate among those that are vaccinated and those that are not. Furthermore the trend seems to be diverging between the groups with the rate among those not vaccinated still going up while leveling off or falling slightly among the vaccinated.

 

[RoboFu]

Some of you are losing your fucking minds. Do you laugh when people who don’t wear sunscreen die of skin cancer? Do you talk about their family members feeling guilt for not encouraging them to wear it? Do they deserve what they get? You people are completely insane at this point. Have some fucking decency. It’s ridiculous.

People with skin cancer can’t pass it to unvaccinated children though.

So stop only thinking about yourselves.

 

[QSD]

Choosing to believe idiots without degrees versus believing the vast majority of experts in the world telling you how important the vaccines are isn’t a mistake. Its a willful, and stupid, decision driven by an us versus them mentality.

... a mentality you would certainly not be guilty of exacerbating with your posting style, I venture?

Claiming people that have trouble (for whatever reason) navigating the current media landscape are basically write-offs that deserve to die is quite the take.
Other than being beyond the pale on a human level, it also has the unfortunate effect of further entrenching existing social divisions and destroying trust, making it less and less likely that the effort to get everyone vaccinated will actually succeed any time soon. In other words, you are also being irresponsible with your messaging and are endangering lives. They are lives that don't matter to you, so much is clear, so by all means keep doing what you're doing.

 

[Jaysen]

... a mentality you would certainly not be guilty of exacerbating with your posting style, I venture?

Claiming people that have trouble (for whatever reason) navigating the current media landscape are basically write-offs that deserve to die is quite the take.
Other than being beyond the pale on a human level, it also has the unfortunate effect of further entrenching existing social divisions and destroying trust, making it less and less likely that the effort to get everyone vaccinated will actually succeed any time soon. In other words, you are also being irresponsible with your messaging and are endangering lives. They are lives that don't matter to you, so much is clear, so by all means keep doing what you're doing.

I’m not going after individuals. I’m going after those who influence others. But someone who is able to “navigate” to bullshit conspiracy sites can’t be so stupid that they can’t also find opposing views and evidence. I’m sure they’d be happy to know you just view them all as innocent idiots who are too stupid to know better.

 

[poppabk]

Yeah, the absolute numbers are still so low, but it is worth noting that this current wave is peaking with at least 50% higher case numbers than their last wave. Hopefully this will follow the same pattern as the UK and not translate to massively increased deaths, considering their extremely high vaccination rate.

Still, even looking at the data from England, as of the most recent report, 16% of those who required emergency care for the Delta variant were fully vaccinated (50% were unvaccinated, 23% had 1 dose, and the remainder were of unknown status). Considering that the vaccines are estimated to prevent severe symptoms to a high degree, that would indicate that their share of infections is probably very high.

You have to remember that the vaccinated and unvaccinated are two different populations. For a start young kids are virtually immune and are all unnvaccinated. Among adults vaccination numbers are generally higher in the elderly and I would imagine much higher in nursing homes and long term care facilities. They are also likely much higher in front line workers as well. Makes it hard to parse the data in a way that allows for vaccine effectiveness to be pulled out from the confounding factors.
Hopefully someone has that data though, otherwise we will be heading for needless interventions based on surface level evaluation of the numbers. Someone really dropped the ball when they stopped tracking this stuff in detail.

 

[DeepBreath87]

People with skin cancer can’t pass it to unvaccinated children though.

So stop only thinking about yourselves.

That line worked right up until they started saying vaccinated people need to mask up to prevent the spread. And regardless, dead people, which what we were talking about, don’t spread the virus either.

The point is to not be assholes towards others and make excuses about it. “Oh, they’re not doing something I think they should be doing, so I get to treat them badly” is bullshit. I don’t care what the excuse is. Be a decent human being yourself. Some of you have more vitriol for these being dying of covid than you do for murders and violent offenders.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

I thought you preferred tighter time interval windows since so many variables change over a longer period of observation?

Anyway, as you can see by the chart, the trendline is heading towards vaccinated people being less of the share of infected.

What's going on in Iceland, Israel, the UK, and any other place with high levels of vaccination rates is the base rate bias.

Someone else already did. He eliminated the 16 and under group from consideration since they aren't even eligible for the vaccines and did an analysis with adults only.

Comparison of Covid cases in a country where almost 90% of the population is vaccinated

grid.is

Summary: In a population where a vast majority is vaccinated, looking at the number of Covid cases will provide a potentially misleading view of vaccine effectiveness against infections. The case rate provides a much more meaningful comparison.

The reason is that the share of the population that is vaccinated in Iceland is exceptionally high. In fact one of the highest in the world:

This causes a "denominator problem". Even at a fairly low rate of cases among the vaccinated group, the absolute number of cases is likely to be as high or higher than that among those not vaccinated. And the bigger the share of those vaccinated, the more it will skew a comparison of the raw case numbers.

There is a clear and significant difference in the case rate among those that are vaccinated and those that are not. Furthermore the trend seems to be diverging between the groups with the rate among those not vaccinated still going up while leveling off or falling slightly among the vaccinated.

You really just Googled about for an article that makes the numbers look better and shared it as your own opinion? That's... interesting.

The reason I wanted tighter time intervals in our previous back and forth about the US data going back to December/January is because there were massive and significant differences in the vaccination rates over the observed period. Not so much in the Iceland data. They went from 73.89% to 74.82% fully vaccinated in the window for which I shared their case numbers.

Anyway, the guy whose article you adopted states "About 15% of those that have been diagnosed in the 4th wave are under the age of 16. By subtracting them from the group of cases among those not vaccinated, we get the number of cases among the adult population" but this information does not appear to be available on the site he links as his source, which is the same as the one we've been looking at: https://www.covid.is/english

Could you point me to the daily breakdown of cases by age that would have been required to make the charts being used?

 

[Rentahamster]

Hopefully someone has that data though, otherwise we will be heading for needless interventions based on surface level evaluation of the numbers. Someone really dropped the ball when they stopped tracking this stuff in detail.

See my recent post.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Anti vax do not deserve sympathy if they are pushing back at decent people who are doing nothing but trying to help them before it gets too the point where family members die.

We owe them nothing when they continue to push back even after. You don't get to turn around and WELL ACKSHYUALLY some dumb point about human decency when true human decency is taking a damn safe vaccine to prevent human suffering on a global scale. You don't get to tut-tut and finger wag at the people who have been trying to get through to these people with logic and reason.

The ironic thing is, in about a years time when things are even worse than they are now, many people are going to change their tune and start screaming at is "BUT I DIDN'T KNOW IT WOULD GET THIS BAD, NOBODY KNEW. IT'S NOT MY FAULT, NOBODY TOLD ME YOU NEED THE VACCINE".

In their eyes, out still won't be their fault that COVID will still be around and more dangerous.

What are you going on about? You sound like you need to get back to digging your bunker and muttering to yourself.